It was reported that the Cubs made the same basic offer to both Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish.
Arrieta wanted more money so he left for a disappointing free agency. Darvish signed with the Cubs with disappointing results.
How different would it be if Arrieta stayed with the Cubs? No one knows for sure.
Since leaving the Cubs, Arrieta has started 48 games, thrown 276.1 IP, giving up 107 ER, 97 BB with a 1.335 WHIP. His record is 18-17.
Since joining the Cubs, Darvish has started 24 games, thrown 137 IP, giving up 76 ER, 70 BB with a 1.365 WHIP. His record is 3-7.
Since leaving the Cubs, Arrieta's WAR is 4.1. Darvish's Cub WAR is 0.4.
You really cannot say that Arrieta is "ten times" better than Darvish, but he had been more durable. Durable until he left his last start with elbow issues. It appears he has bone spurs which will require surgery so he will be out for an extended time period.
The rehash of this debate continues because the Cub front office continues to frustrate fans by not signing and developing starting pitching prospects. Zero. Adbert Alzolay was sent back to the minors have a weak start.
At the start of the season, many sports reporters questioned whether the age of the starting rotation would bite the Cubs. With Cole Hamels on the DL and Kyle Hendricks coming off the DL, the lack of rotation depth is clear. Spot starts by Tyler Chatwood will not cut it in the second half. Montgomery is not the same pitcher he was two years ago.
During the cross town series, Cub fans complained about the Quintana trade as Eloy Jiminez rocked a homer and Dylan Cease made his first career MLB start. Again, the Cubs made that trade because they needed to win then with a veteran arm. As the White Sox rebuild progresses, the eventual Cubs tear down comes closer on the horizon.
Showing posts with label Arrieta. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arrieta. Show all posts
July 8, 2019
November 7, 2017
QUALIFIED
The new CBA rules on free agency took effect after the World Series. The old Qualifying Offer rules have been diluted and complicated to a point where there is less incentive to make offers and more incentive to sign players who rejected them (as the loss of a first or second round draft pick has been lessened based on revenue sharing and luxury tax components in a compensation formula).
Only 9 players received the $17.4 million one year offer from their clubs. The Cubs offered SP Arrieta and closer Davis contracts.
Arrieta had been adamant that he was going to reject a QO and head into free agency looking for a career ending 7 year $180 million plus contract. But his advanced statistics have shown the wear and tear of the last two seasons. He may have missed the golden parachute by a year. He may still get $20 million annual salary over 5 years.
Davis is the more interesting question. Closers are in high demand and there is a shortage on the open market (unless you think teams will convert some second tier starters like Andrew Cashner into closers). The Cubs have had a philosophy of not paying high value free agent closers. The long term contract requirements scare off the Cubs sinking potential dead money on older pitchers dead arms. And the way Joe Maddon tends to burn out his bullpen in the post-season is also an issue. (There is no question Chapman was not the same pitcher this year after his Cubs post-season abuse.)
But the Cubs have no closer on their current roster. Edwards may be projected into that role, but his lack of command at the end of last season has given some Cub observers the Marmol chills.
The front office has admitted that the minor league system is bare. It means that if the team wants to find a quality starter or a closer in the trade market, it will have to send one or two players off their current 25 man roster. The likely trade chips are Russell, Baez, Schwarber and/or Happ.
One rumor is that the Cubs could package two position players for Tampa's Chris Archer, a quality starter with four more years of team control. But like Arrieta, Archer's advanced pitching stats indicate that his 4 to 1 strikeout ratio and innings pitched have made him more ineffective in the last two season. The quality of his pitches is down.
There was also another rumor that the Cubs could try to package a deal to swap bad money deals. What was floated in the speculative bubble of the internet was the Cubs trading Heyward and half his salary to the Giants for Jeff Samardzija and his $59 million, 3 year contract. There are two problems with this speculation: one, Samardzija had a poor year with a 4.42 ERA and two, Heyward still has one more year of a no-trade clause. It is doubtful that Heyward would waive his no trade to move to a rebuilding club in San Francisco. The Cubs really do not have a great right field player to push Heyward to the bench.
The Cubs painted themselves into a corner. The minor league system is not producing quality starting pitchers. AAA Iowa does not have quality arms to re-stock the major league bullpen. Edwards is not ready for a prime time closer role. The Cubs have two starting rotation slots to fill. The Brewers are one or two players away from taking the NL Central.
Only 9 players received the $17.4 million one year offer from their clubs. The Cubs offered SP Arrieta and closer Davis contracts.
Arrieta had been adamant that he was going to reject a QO and head into free agency looking for a career ending 7 year $180 million plus contract. But his advanced statistics have shown the wear and tear of the last two seasons. He may have missed the golden parachute by a year. He may still get $20 million annual salary over 5 years.
Davis is the more interesting question. Closers are in high demand and there is a shortage on the open market (unless you think teams will convert some second tier starters like Andrew Cashner into closers). The Cubs have had a philosophy of not paying high value free agent closers. The long term contract requirements scare off the Cubs sinking potential dead money on older pitchers dead arms. And the way Joe Maddon tends to burn out his bullpen in the post-season is also an issue. (There is no question Chapman was not the same pitcher this year after his Cubs post-season abuse.)
But the Cubs have no closer on their current roster. Edwards may be projected into that role, but his lack of command at the end of last season has given some Cub observers the Marmol chills.
The front office has admitted that the minor league system is bare. It means that if the team wants to find a quality starter or a closer in the trade market, it will have to send one or two players off their current 25 man roster. The likely trade chips are Russell, Baez, Schwarber and/or Happ.
One rumor is that the Cubs could package two position players for Tampa's Chris Archer, a quality starter with four more years of team control. But like Arrieta, Archer's advanced pitching stats indicate that his 4 to 1 strikeout ratio and innings pitched have made him more ineffective in the last two season. The quality of his pitches is down.
There was also another rumor that the Cubs could try to package a deal to swap bad money deals. What was floated in the speculative bubble of the internet was the Cubs trading Heyward and half his salary to the Giants for Jeff Samardzija and his $59 million, 3 year contract. There are two problems with this speculation: one, Samardzija had a poor year with a 4.42 ERA and two, Heyward still has one more year of a no-trade clause. It is doubtful that Heyward would waive his no trade to move to a rebuilding club in San Francisco. The Cubs really do not have a great right field player to push Heyward to the bench.
The Cubs painted themselves into a corner. The minor league system is not producing quality starting pitchers. AAA Iowa does not have quality arms to re-stock the major league bullpen. Edwards is not ready for a prime time closer role. The Cubs have two starting rotation slots to fill. The Brewers are one or two players away from taking the NL Central.
September 23, 2017
THE REAL ROTATION
After two nail biting victories over the Brewers, the Cubs are crawling to the post season.
Talk has turned to the playoff starting rotation. There are questions for every current Cub starter including the swing man Montgomery.
Lester has not been the sharp playoff ace in his last 3 starts.
Arrieta is coming back from a hamstring injury.
Quintana has good outings and bad innings.
Lackey has been very consistent in his last 4 starts, but not overpowering.
Hendricks seems to be finding his last season groove but does he have the stamina to finish strong?
Montgomery pitched a quality start one-hitter in his last spot start. Maddon seems to be clear that he wants Monty in the bullpen in the playoffs.
Most assume that you want your "ace" to start Game 1 of the playoffs. But the post season games have tightened a bit with less travel days so if you are really projecting a World Series appearance, you have to manage the rotation prior to the end of the season.
Everyone projects the Cubs to use a four man rotation (with Lackey as being the odd man out).
The NL playoffs for the Cubs looks like this:
Game 1 NLDS Friday Oct 6
Game 2 NLDS Sat Oct 7
Game 3 NLDS Mon Oct 9 (home)
Game 4 NLDS Tue Oct 10 (home)
Game 5 NLDS Thur Oct 12 (6 days after Game 1)
When you look at this set up, the Cubs get two home games. Lester and Hendricks pitch better at home than on the road. So do you put Arrieta and Quintana 1-2?
The next round of the playoffs looks like this:
Game 1 NLCS Sat Oct 14 (2 days after Game 5; 7 days after Game 2 NLDS)
Game 2 NLCS Sun Oct 15
Game 3 NLCS Tue Oct 17
Game 4 NLCS Wed Oct 18
Game 5 NLCS Thur Oct 19 (5 days after Game 1 NLCS)
Game 6 NLCS Sat Oct 20 (6 days after Game 2)
Game 7 NLCS Sun Oct 21 (5 days after Game 3)
The oddity is that the Game 6 pitcher will have more rest than the Game 5 or Game 7 starter.
Would it be prudent to make sure an older pitcher like Lester fit into Game 6?
The World Series looks like this:
Game 1 Tue Oct 24 (2 days after pennant series; 5 days since Game 5 start)
Game 2 Wed Oct 25
Game 3 Fri Oct 26
Game 4 Sat Oct 28
Game 5 Sun Oct 29 (5 days after Game 1)
Game 6 Tue Oct 31 (6 days after Game 2)
Game 7 Wed Nov 1 (5 days after Game 3)
It would appear your Game 5 NLCS starter would be the WS Game 1 starter on 5 days rest.
The Game 1 starter would also be the Game 5 starter on 5 days rest (and would be available in the bullpen for Game 7 like Maddon did with Lester last season).
If you think each round will be very close, then the pitching staff has to determine who should pitch the final game in each series.
You have to work backwards from WS Game 7 with your ace.
Your ace would pitch WS Game 7 and 3; Game 6 and 2 of the NLCS; Game 3 of the NLDS.
Game 3 of the NLDS is a key game coming off two road games in a short series against the Nationals. Perhaps Lester with his better home record and playoff experience in meaningful games would fit in as the #3 pitcher in the Cubs playoff rotation.
The other argument is to give him an extra day of rest during the playoff run.
Lester would then pitch WS Game 6 (on 6 days rest) and 2; NLCS Game 5 (on 5 days rest) and 1 (on 7 days rest) and start Game 2 of the NLDS.
This is the chess game within the game for managers. How you set up your roster and rotation is a critical component on how well your team will perform in the post season. There is no easy answer. Some will say just start your "best" pitchers first because you have to win each round to advance. There is not enough time between series to "reset" the rotation back to Game 1.
People have emphasized the rotation as being the key of this Cub post season since the bullpen continues to be in flux. People are looking for starters to go 7 strong innings, but that has been a rarity all season long.
It will be interesting to see how Maddon and the front office creates its 25 man post season roster. One expects that there may be an additional relief pitcher in the mix (but no one believes Lackey will be that guy).
Talk has turned to the playoff starting rotation. There are questions for every current Cub starter including the swing man Montgomery.
Lester has not been the sharp playoff ace in his last 3 starts.
Arrieta is coming back from a hamstring injury.
Quintana has good outings and bad innings.
Lackey has been very consistent in his last 4 starts, but not overpowering.
Hendricks seems to be finding his last season groove but does he have the stamina to finish strong?
Montgomery pitched a quality start one-hitter in his last spot start. Maddon seems to be clear that he wants Monty in the bullpen in the playoffs.
Most assume that you want your "ace" to start Game 1 of the playoffs. But the post season games have tightened a bit with less travel days so if you are really projecting a World Series appearance, you have to manage the rotation prior to the end of the season.
Everyone projects the Cubs to use a four man rotation (with Lackey as being the odd man out).
The NL playoffs for the Cubs looks like this:
Game 1 NLDS Friday Oct 6
Game 2 NLDS Sat Oct 7
Game 3 NLDS Mon Oct 9 (home)
Game 4 NLDS Tue Oct 10 (home)
Game 5 NLDS Thur Oct 12 (6 days after Game 1)
When you look at this set up, the Cubs get two home games. Lester and Hendricks pitch better at home than on the road. So do you put Arrieta and Quintana 1-2?
The next round of the playoffs looks like this:
Game 1 NLCS Sat Oct 14 (2 days after Game 5; 7 days after Game 2 NLDS)
Game 2 NLCS Sun Oct 15
Game 3 NLCS Tue Oct 17
Game 4 NLCS Wed Oct 18
Game 5 NLCS Thur Oct 19 (5 days after Game 1 NLCS)
Game 6 NLCS Sat Oct 20 (6 days after Game 2)
Game 7 NLCS Sun Oct 21 (5 days after Game 3)
The oddity is that the Game 6 pitcher will have more rest than the Game 5 or Game 7 starter.
Would it be prudent to make sure an older pitcher like Lester fit into Game 6?
The World Series looks like this:
Game 1 Tue Oct 24 (2 days after pennant series; 5 days since Game 5 start)
Game 2 Wed Oct 25
Game 3 Fri Oct 26
Game 4 Sat Oct 28
Game 5 Sun Oct 29 (5 days after Game 1)
Game 6 Tue Oct 31 (6 days after Game 2)
Game 7 Wed Nov 1 (5 days after Game 3)
It would appear your Game 5 NLCS starter would be the WS Game 1 starter on 5 days rest.
The Game 1 starter would also be the Game 5 starter on 5 days rest (and would be available in the bullpen for Game 7 like Maddon did with Lester last season).
If you think each round will be very close, then the pitching staff has to determine who should pitch the final game in each series.
You have to work backwards from WS Game 7 with your ace.
Your ace would pitch WS Game 7 and 3; Game 6 and 2 of the NLCS; Game 3 of the NLDS.
Game 3 of the NLDS is a key game coming off two road games in a short series against the Nationals. Perhaps Lester with his better home record and playoff experience in meaningful games would fit in as the #3 pitcher in the Cubs playoff rotation.
The other argument is to give him an extra day of rest during the playoff run.
Lester would then pitch WS Game 6 (on 6 days rest) and 2; NLCS Game 5 (on 5 days rest) and 1 (on 7 days rest) and start Game 2 of the NLDS.
This is the chess game within the game for managers. How you set up your roster and rotation is a critical component on how well your team will perform in the post season. There is no easy answer. Some will say just start your "best" pitchers first because you have to win each round to advance. There is not enough time between series to "reset" the rotation back to Game 1.
People have emphasized the rotation as being the key of this Cub post season since the bullpen continues to be in flux. People are looking for starters to go 7 strong innings, but that has been a rarity all season long.
It will be interesting to see how Maddon and the front office creates its 25 man post season roster. One expects that there may be an additional relief pitcher in the mix (but no one believes Lackey will be that guy).
June 30, 2017
QUALITY CONTROL
Peter Gammons was on local Chicago sports radio this morning. The discussion centered around whether the baseball was "juiced" with the rash of home runs this season.
Gammons believes that the ball was not intentionally altered to create a ball that travels farther. He thinks there may be changes in the manufacturing process which could lead to such results.
Mike Mulligan stated that he has discussed the issue with pitching coaches who believe that the baseball itself is different. That the stitches are harder. Jake Arrieta sweats so much that he had a hard time gripping the current ball. They thought that is why Arrieta's command is so much different this season that the last two.
Gammons thought that was an interesting comment. Also, based on the Nate Silver and USA Today articles on the baseball conspiracy theories, Gammons said he took a current ball back to his office to compare with older ones he had there. He said that he found that the current baseball seams are much lower than the older models. He thinks that if the seams are lower, that may cause the ball to spin or bite less, which would mean less breaking action on curves and sliders.
Arrieta in his prime had biting action but also was able to hit his spots. Gammons thinks that is the major problem with pitching today is that pitchers are not able to consistently hit their spots. He said David Price is having problems hitting the corners even though his velocity is back up to the mid-90s. Price is uncharacteristically leaving fastballs over the heart of the plate.
Gammons also thinks that the detailed analysis of swing planes and launch angles is also contributing to higher home run totals. He says batters are now learning to hit the ball in the air. He says that they are squaring up pitches more for towering home runs to deep center field or with opposite field power. If the baseball is not moving as much as before, the batter is getting a flatter pitch to hit - - - and hit hard.
It could be the combination of the baseball manufacturing process where the seams are lower, the grip weaker for pitchers, and ball movement less that has contributed to the soaring home run rate.
But not to be discounted, Gammons remarked that the strike zone has shifted this season. Umpires are not calling the lower strike. Before, pitchers were getting calls near the ankle. Today, the strike zone has moved up from the thigh to the letters. Gammons thinks that is also a contributing factor because pitchers are forced to throw pitches higher in the zone -- a position where batters can hit them harder.
The Cubs-Nationals series was clear evidence that the balls thrown at the bottom of the strike zone were not called by the umpires. Cub pitchers got extremely frustrated with the strike zone. On the flip side, pitchers are told that they have to adjust their strategy to match an umpire's strike zone calls. But if the umpire is not calling the lower 6 inches of the plate, that is a huge in-game adjustment. If you are a pitcher whose "out" pitch is a slider in at the knees, and that pitch won't get called - - - then you are in trouble.
That may have been Arrieta's last start in a nutshell. He walked 6 batters which set off the Nationals running game against his slow delivery to the plate. A frustrated Miguel Montero voiced his displeasure at being blamed for a record 7 steals against the battery combination - - - and lost his job because of his truthful comments. But Arrieta's command has been an issue all year. He has reverted to his performance stats when he was in Baltimore, to the chagrin of fans.
An altered seam on baseballs, a different strike zone and batters learning to put the ball in the air have all had an impact on home run derby season in major league baseball.
Gammons believes that the ball was not intentionally altered to create a ball that travels farther. He thinks there may be changes in the manufacturing process which could lead to such results.
Mike Mulligan stated that he has discussed the issue with pitching coaches who believe that the baseball itself is different. That the stitches are harder. Jake Arrieta sweats so much that he had a hard time gripping the current ball. They thought that is why Arrieta's command is so much different this season that the last two.
Gammons thought that was an interesting comment. Also, based on the Nate Silver and USA Today articles on the baseball conspiracy theories, Gammons said he took a current ball back to his office to compare with older ones he had there. He said that he found that the current baseball seams are much lower than the older models. He thinks that if the seams are lower, that may cause the ball to spin or bite less, which would mean less breaking action on curves and sliders.
Arrieta in his prime had biting action but also was able to hit his spots. Gammons thinks that is the major problem with pitching today is that pitchers are not able to consistently hit their spots. He said David Price is having problems hitting the corners even though his velocity is back up to the mid-90s. Price is uncharacteristically leaving fastballs over the heart of the plate.
Gammons also thinks that the detailed analysis of swing planes and launch angles is also contributing to higher home run totals. He says batters are now learning to hit the ball in the air. He says that they are squaring up pitches more for towering home runs to deep center field or with opposite field power. If the baseball is not moving as much as before, the batter is getting a flatter pitch to hit - - - and hit hard.
It could be the combination of the baseball manufacturing process where the seams are lower, the grip weaker for pitchers, and ball movement less that has contributed to the soaring home run rate.
But not to be discounted, Gammons remarked that the strike zone has shifted this season. Umpires are not calling the lower strike. Before, pitchers were getting calls near the ankle. Today, the strike zone has moved up from the thigh to the letters. Gammons thinks that is also a contributing factor because pitchers are forced to throw pitches higher in the zone -- a position where batters can hit them harder.
The Cubs-Nationals series was clear evidence that the balls thrown at the bottom of the strike zone were not called by the umpires. Cub pitchers got extremely frustrated with the strike zone. On the flip side, pitchers are told that they have to adjust their strategy to match an umpire's strike zone calls. But if the umpire is not calling the lower 6 inches of the plate, that is a huge in-game adjustment. If you are a pitcher whose "out" pitch is a slider in at the knees, and that pitch won't get called - - - then you are in trouble.
That may have been Arrieta's last start in a nutshell. He walked 6 batters which set off the Nationals running game against his slow delivery to the plate. A frustrated Miguel Montero voiced his displeasure at being blamed for a record 7 steals against the battery combination - - - and lost his job because of his truthful comments. But Arrieta's command has been an issue all year. He has reverted to his performance stats when he was in Baltimore, to the chagrin of fans.
An altered seam on baseballs, a different strike zone and batters learning to put the ball in the air have all had an impact on home run derby season in major league baseball.
October 11, 2016
THE FLAWS
MadBum had a bad arm last night. The Cubs radio team saw it immediately in the first inning when Bumgarner only threw two fastballs. At that point the Cubs had an advantage; batters could work the soft counts and increase the Giant's ace pitch count. It worked. Bumgarner was out of the game in the 5th.
Jake Arrieta was better than lowered expectations, especially when he hit a 3 -run homer to give the Cubs a large, early lead.
In an elimination game, you should not change what was working in the past. But Joe Maddon wanted to juggle and tinker the entire game. It showed the flaws in the Cub team.
Mike Montgomery threw 4 good relief innings, because he had to. Maddon had used everyone in the pen except C.J. Edwards.
Maddon burned through Wood, Rondon, Chapman and Grimm in the 8th inning.
The bullpen situation unraveled in the 8th when Maddon called upon Chapman to do something he told Joe in the regular season he was uncomfortable in doing: the multiple inning save. Chapman gave up the lead in the bottom of the 8th; the staff getting torched for 3 runs.
For some reason, Maddon panicked in the 8th, thinking that he had to win the series then and now.
But Kris Bryant hit a homer to tie the game in the 9th. This lead to a long, extra inning game with the Cubs short on bullets.
Montgomery was the only long reliever left in the pen. Some may say that was a roster mistake knowing that the Giants-Cubs play tight games. Further complicating the matter was Kyle Hendricks short start because of the line drive off the forearm. The keeping of only 11 pitchers may not be the critical issue unless you believe Cahill was a better choice than Coghlan. But Cahill would have given Maddon more relief innings than Grimm.
Montgomery gets the loss in the scorecard, but the loss really falls on the manager and how he used his roster during the game.
Now, after a long night game, the Cubs have to come back and regroup after giving the Giants the momentum and confidence to come back. The pressure is really on the Cubs tonight. And the team acquired John Lackey for his big playoff game experience.
Jake Arrieta was better than lowered expectations, especially when he hit a 3 -run homer to give the Cubs a large, early lead.
In an elimination game, you should not change what was working in the past. But Joe Maddon wanted to juggle and tinker the entire game. It showed the flaws in the Cub team.
Mike Montgomery threw 4 good relief innings, because he had to. Maddon had used everyone in the pen except C.J. Edwards.
Maddon burned through Wood, Rondon, Chapman and Grimm in the 8th inning.
The bullpen situation unraveled in the 8th when Maddon called upon Chapman to do something he told Joe in the regular season he was uncomfortable in doing: the multiple inning save. Chapman gave up the lead in the bottom of the 8th; the staff getting torched for 3 runs.
For some reason, Maddon panicked in the 8th, thinking that he had to win the series then and now.
But Kris Bryant hit a homer to tie the game in the 9th. This lead to a long, extra inning game with the Cubs short on bullets.
Montgomery was the only long reliever left in the pen. Some may say that was a roster mistake knowing that the Giants-Cubs play tight games. Further complicating the matter was Kyle Hendricks short start because of the line drive off the forearm. The keeping of only 11 pitchers may not be the critical issue unless you believe Cahill was a better choice than Coghlan. But Cahill would have given Maddon more relief innings than Grimm.
Montgomery gets the loss in the scorecard, but the loss really falls on the manager and how he used his roster during the game.
Now, after a long night game, the Cubs have to come back and regroup after giving the Giants the momentum and confidence to come back. The pressure is really on the Cubs tonight. And the team acquired John Lackey for his big playoff game experience.
May 21, 2016
THE BEST ARM
The talk shows are buzzing about this season's the golden age of golden arms. No one can decide who is the "best" pitcher in baseball.
The nominees each have put up some long term staggering numbers.
Chris Sale, 27, has been perfect this season. He is 9-0, 1.58 ERA, 3 complete games, 0.717 WHIP and 3.1 WAR. Being "9-0 in Nine Starts/ERA Under 2.00 Club"puts him ahead of Pedro Martinez in 1997 and Fernando Valenzuela in 1981, when they went 8-0 in their first eight starts. Sale's start win total is the best in franchise history since 1919.
Clayton Kershaw, 28, is currently 6-1, 1.67 ERA, 2 shout outs, 0.700 WHIP and 2.8 WAR. Kershaw has faced 253 hitters this year -- and walked four of them. That is an unheard-of 88-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Kershaw has six straight double-figure strikeout games that have included a TOTAL of two walks. The man who bears the weight of his franchise every time he goes out there, averages more outs per start (23) than any pitcher in the sport and owns the late innings like no other starter alive. He has now faced 54 hitters from the seventh inning on. Seven have somehow reached base. Not a one has scored.
Jake Arrieta, 30, is 7-0, 1.29 ERA, 0.839 WHIP and 2.4 WAR. His team has won his last 21 regular game starts, the most in the history of baseball. He has pitched two no hitters in less than a year. In between no hitters, Arrieta was 15-0 with a 0.65 ERA. If you look back 24 starts, his record gets better at 20-1. 0.86 ERA with 91 hits allowed over 178 innings, 173 strikeouts, 33 walks and 0.697 WHIP.
There is one thing in common with all three of these outstanding pitchers. Each has a funky delivery. Sale buggy whips his entire lean frame into every pitch. Kershaw has a jerky arm motion. Arrieta teeters then throws across his body. And the unorthodox deliveries may be the key to their collective success.
Hitters need to locate each pitch as quick as possible. Fractions of seconds count when a baseball is spinning 90 mph at you. Hitters need to find a pitcher's release point, then the rotation on the seems to instantaneously determine if it is a fastball, or a curve. Any delay in recognition means the pitcher has a greater advantage over the hitter.
Another factor is that these pitchers have learned not be "throwers" trying to blow away hitters for strike outs. They are "pitchers" who have mastered their craft to conserve energy, locate pitches, pitch to contact and find hitter weaknesses.
We are less than a third through the 2016 season and the press is in awe with the quality of starting pitching with more stories about the Cy Young races.
The nominees each have put up some long term staggering numbers.
Chris Sale, 27, has been perfect this season. He is 9-0, 1.58 ERA, 3 complete games, 0.717 WHIP and 3.1 WAR. Being "9-0 in Nine Starts/ERA Under 2.00 Club"puts him ahead of Pedro Martinez in 1997 and Fernando Valenzuela in 1981, when they went 8-0 in their first eight starts. Sale's start win total is the best in franchise history since 1919.
Clayton Kershaw, 28, is currently 6-1, 1.67 ERA, 2 shout outs, 0.700 WHIP and 2.8 WAR. Kershaw has faced 253 hitters this year -- and walked four of them. That is an unheard-of 88-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Kershaw has six straight double-figure strikeout games that have included a TOTAL of two walks. The man who bears the weight of his franchise every time he goes out there, averages more outs per start (23) than any pitcher in the sport and owns the late innings like no other starter alive. He has now faced 54 hitters from the seventh inning on. Seven have somehow reached base. Not a one has scored.
Jake Arrieta, 30, is 7-0, 1.29 ERA, 0.839 WHIP and 2.4 WAR. His team has won his last 21 regular game starts, the most in the history of baseball. He has pitched two no hitters in less than a year. In between no hitters, Arrieta was 15-0 with a 0.65 ERA. If you look back 24 starts, his record gets better at 20-1. 0.86 ERA with 91 hits allowed over 178 innings, 173 strikeouts, 33 walks and 0.697 WHIP.
There is one thing in common with all three of these outstanding pitchers. Each has a funky delivery. Sale buggy whips his entire lean frame into every pitch. Kershaw has a jerky arm motion. Arrieta teeters then throws across his body. And the unorthodox deliveries may be the key to their collective success.
Hitters need to locate each pitch as quick as possible. Fractions of seconds count when a baseball is spinning 90 mph at you. Hitters need to find a pitcher's release point, then the rotation on the seems to instantaneously determine if it is a fastball, or a curve. Any delay in recognition means the pitcher has a greater advantage over the hitter.
Another factor is that these pitchers have learned not be "throwers" trying to blow away hitters for strike outs. They are "pitchers" who have mastered their craft to conserve energy, locate pitches, pitch to contact and find hitter weaknesses.
We are less than a third through the 2016 season and the press is in awe with the quality of starting pitching with more stories about the Cy Young races.
May 12, 2016
ARRIETA RESPONSE
When Stephen Strasburg did the unusual by agreeing to a long term extension with the Nationals instead of taking a chance in free agency, attention turned to Scott Boras' other client, the currently unworldly Jake Arrieta.
Arrieta was blunt to the Chicago media.
"Aces get seven years," Arrieta said of recent big name pitchers who signed mega deals. "I'll let you judge that. Just look at the numbers. You want to be paid in respect to how your peers are paid. I don't think that changes with any guy you ask. It happens around baseball every year."
The Strasburg decision seems to be "client" driven, meaning that the baseball agent was giving marching orders to get a deal done and not the agent driving the player's future.
Arrieta's words appear to be more "agent" driven - - - that Arrieta looks forward to get paid like his peers - - - in free agency.
And here is Arrieta's argument for looking for a major pay day:
He is in his 6th pro season. He is 30 years old. He has massed a career 17.2 WAR (with the Cubs 5.3, 8.7 and 2.1 in 2014, 2015, 2016). He has only been paid $15.5 million. Under WAR contract valuation, Arrieta's performance value was $86 million. In other words, he has outperformed his contract by five and one half times.
In contrast, Strasburg is also in his 6th season. Strasburg is only 27 years old. He has a career WAR of 8.8. He had been paid $25 million prior to the extension. His past WAR contract valuation was $44 million, so he was also underpaid by that standard. But Strasburg has leveraged his 59-37, 3.07 ERA career numbers into $175 million, almost four times the valuation metric.
Arrieta will be looking in 2017 for $30 million per season (6.0 WAR valuation) or more for seven years or $210 million. That would bring the back end of his contract into dead money years of his late 30s. Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan has written extensively about the sudden production fall-off of pitchers in the 30s. That is why long term pitching contracts are not favored by the owners. The Cubs probably will do more than a 4 year deal with Arrieta.
But Arrieta is looking for his one great last contract without a hometown discount.
But a better comparison is David Price. Price, 30 years old, is in his 8th major league season. He signed a 7 year, $217 million contract this off-season. He is at the magic $30 million plus per season contract status. Price career numbers are good: 108-57, 3.19 ERA and 28.5 WAR. His past performance value was $146 million. With the new Boston deal, Price is struggling at 4-1, 6.75 ERA and negative 0.7 WAR.
So what is Arrieta worth?
Whatever a team is willing to pay. Arrieta's recent history would put him more in the Price category, but injury history and Arrieta's recent two grinding starts make some think more Strasburg. The difference between those two contracts is $42 million.
Current Cubs management has painted itself in a corner. It hit a home run with the Scott Feldman trade for Arrieta and Pedro Strop. However, the draft strategy of taking the best bats has given the team a "core" of young players who will need to be paid during any megadeal of Arrieta (plus Lester's deal). I don't see the Cubs willing to set aside $330 million for two pitchers from 2017 on when you have to think expensive extensions for Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant.
But the price of quality starting pitching continues to go up. The only way to counter that is to develop a young, solid core of pitchers from your own system. This is the Achilles heel for the Cubs: they have not developed a young arm under Theo-Jed. They have trapped themselves in finding a rotation through free agency.
The Cubs have one more full season of Arrieta control. If the Cubs cannot work out an extension with Arrieta this off-season, the Cubs have two options: keep him for his walk year or trade him at the Winter meetings for young, controllable, major league ready pitching. Some of these decisions will be determined by the new CBA (whether draft picks will still be at risk for qualifying offers).
It may depend on whether the Cubs win a championship in 2016. If that is the case, there is less pressure on ownership or management to keep Arrieta for 2017. If the Cubs fall short, then the pressure to win the championship in 2017 is expanded ten fold. Arrieta would have to be kept on board to anchor the pitching staff.
Without a doubt, in any situation, Arrieta is in the cat bird's seat.
Arrieta was blunt to the Chicago media.
"Aces get seven years," Arrieta said of recent big name pitchers who signed mega deals. "I'll let you judge that. Just look at the numbers. You want to be paid in respect to how your peers are paid. I don't think that changes with any guy you ask. It happens around baseball every year."
The Strasburg decision seems to be "client" driven, meaning that the baseball agent was giving marching orders to get a deal done and not the agent driving the player's future.
Arrieta's words appear to be more "agent" driven - - - that Arrieta looks forward to get paid like his peers - - - in free agency.
And here is Arrieta's argument for looking for a major pay day:
He is in his 6th pro season. He is 30 years old. He has massed a career 17.2 WAR (with the Cubs 5.3, 8.7 and 2.1 in 2014, 2015, 2016). He has only been paid $15.5 million. Under WAR contract valuation, Arrieta's performance value was $86 million. In other words, he has outperformed his contract by five and one half times.
In contrast, Strasburg is also in his 6th season. Strasburg is only 27 years old. He has a career WAR of 8.8. He had been paid $25 million prior to the extension. His past WAR contract valuation was $44 million, so he was also underpaid by that standard. But Strasburg has leveraged his 59-37, 3.07 ERA career numbers into $175 million, almost four times the valuation metric.
Arrieta will be looking in 2017 for $30 million per season (6.0 WAR valuation) or more for seven years or $210 million. That would bring the back end of his contract into dead money years of his late 30s. Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan has written extensively about the sudden production fall-off of pitchers in the 30s. That is why long term pitching contracts are not favored by the owners. The Cubs probably will do more than a 4 year deal with Arrieta.
But Arrieta is looking for his one great last contract without a hometown discount.
But a better comparison is David Price. Price, 30 years old, is in his 8th major league season. He signed a 7 year, $217 million contract this off-season. He is at the magic $30 million plus per season contract status. Price career numbers are good: 108-57, 3.19 ERA and 28.5 WAR. His past performance value was $146 million. With the new Boston deal, Price is struggling at 4-1, 6.75 ERA and negative 0.7 WAR.
So what is Arrieta worth?
Whatever a team is willing to pay. Arrieta's recent history would put him more in the Price category, but injury history and Arrieta's recent two grinding starts make some think more Strasburg. The difference between those two contracts is $42 million.
Current Cubs management has painted itself in a corner. It hit a home run with the Scott Feldman trade for Arrieta and Pedro Strop. However, the draft strategy of taking the best bats has given the team a "core" of young players who will need to be paid during any megadeal of Arrieta (plus Lester's deal). I don't see the Cubs willing to set aside $330 million for two pitchers from 2017 on when you have to think expensive extensions for Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant.
But the price of quality starting pitching continues to go up. The only way to counter that is to develop a young, solid core of pitchers from your own system. This is the Achilles heel for the Cubs: they have not developed a young arm under Theo-Jed. They have trapped themselves in finding a rotation through free agency.
The Cubs have one more full season of Arrieta control. If the Cubs cannot work out an extension with Arrieta this off-season, the Cubs have two options: keep him for his walk year or trade him at the Winter meetings for young, controllable, major league ready pitching. Some of these decisions will be determined by the new CBA (whether draft picks will still be at risk for qualifying offers).
It may depend on whether the Cubs win a championship in 2016. If that is the case, there is less pressure on ownership or management to keep Arrieta for 2017. If the Cubs fall short, then the pressure to win the championship in 2017 is expanded ten fold. Arrieta would have to be kept on board to anchor the pitching staff.
Without a doubt, in any situation, Arrieta is in the cat bird's seat.
May 4, 2016
BIG DIVDENDS
In the past Chicago teams were too loyal to their veterans past their prime.
With John Danks release, it shows that the mission is simple: win every game.
And the White Sox and Cubs have been doing it like Industrial Revolution Machines.
The pitching staffs have not allowed losing streaks:
Arrieta: 6-0, 0.84 ERA, 0.744 WHIP, 2.1 WAR
Lester: 2-1, 1.83 ERA, 0.932 WHIP, 1.0 WAR
Hammel:4-0, 1.24 ERA, 1.069 WHIP, 1.2 WAR
Sale: 6-0, 1.66 ERA, 0.808 WHIP, 1.7 WAR
Quintana: 4-1, 1.40 ERA, 0.983 WHIP, 1.6 WAR
Latos: 4-0, 1.84 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
That is incredible starting pitching. Sale and Quintana are the best 1-2 combo in major league baseball.
But that is not all. Two under the radar changes have improved the clubs defense.
The White Sox signed Austin Jackson to play CF because Adam Eaton was a horrible fielder. But by Eaton to RF, it has improved the White Sox defense dramatically. Eaton was a negative CF but now he has a plus 75 defense runs saved/year ratio. His dWAR has gone from -1.1 in 2015 to 1.4 WAR in 2016.
The Cubs made a small adjustment on positioning their center fielder. By moving Dexer Fowler deeper in the outfield, it has made a clear improvement in his defense, too. He now has a 0.2 dWAR compared to a negative 1.0 WAR from 2015. He has gone from a -10 to a +12 in defense runs saved/year.
The little adjustments are paying huge dividends.
The White Sox are 19-8, 4 games ahead of the Tigers.
The Cubs are 19-6, 5 games ahead of the Pirates and 7 games ahead of the Cardinals.
The Cubs also have a crazy run differential of +89, more than double the next highest team.
Baseball is going to be fun this summer in Chicago.
With John Danks release, it shows that the mission is simple: win every game.
And the White Sox and Cubs have been doing it like Industrial Revolution Machines.
The pitching staffs have not allowed losing streaks:
Arrieta: 6-0, 0.84 ERA, 0.744 WHIP, 2.1 WAR
Lester: 2-1, 1.83 ERA, 0.932 WHIP, 1.0 WAR
Hammel:4-0, 1.24 ERA, 1.069 WHIP, 1.2 WAR
Sale: 6-0, 1.66 ERA, 0.808 WHIP, 1.7 WAR
Quintana: 4-1, 1.40 ERA, 0.983 WHIP, 1.6 WAR
Latos: 4-0, 1.84 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
That is incredible starting pitching. Sale and Quintana are the best 1-2 combo in major league baseball.
But that is not all. Two under the radar changes have improved the clubs defense.
The White Sox signed Austin Jackson to play CF because Adam Eaton was a horrible fielder. But by Eaton to RF, it has improved the White Sox defense dramatically. Eaton was a negative CF but now he has a plus 75 defense runs saved/year ratio. His dWAR has gone from -1.1 in 2015 to 1.4 WAR in 2016.
The Cubs made a small adjustment on positioning their center fielder. By moving Dexer Fowler deeper in the outfield, it has made a clear improvement in his defense, too. He now has a 0.2 dWAR compared to a negative 1.0 WAR from 2015. He has gone from a -10 to a +12 in defense runs saved/year.
The little adjustments are paying huge dividends.
The White Sox are 19-8, 4 games ahead of the Tigers.
The Cubs are 19-6, 5 games ahead of the Pirates and 7 games ahead of the Cardinals.
The Cubs also have a crazy run differential of +89, more than double the next highest team.
Baseball is going to be fun this summer in Chicago.
April 29, 2016
ALWAYS UNDER A CLOUD
Jake Arrieta has transformed his career since the Cubs traded starter Scott Feldman, a rental player, to the Orioles, for their former prospect.
Arrieta not only got better - - - he has become the best in baseball. Two no-hitters in 11 starts is proof of a totally different pitcher than the one the Orioles decided was not in their future.
But now, the public whispers suspicions that Arrieta could not have gotten this good, this quick, without some artificial help. Baseball was in denial for most of the steroid era. It recaptured fans with the McGwire-Sosa juiced home run race. Light hitting utility infielders were suddenly hitting 25 home runs. Player contracts skyrocketed in value under new cable television deals. There was plenty of incentive for all sides to look the other way when the topic of PEDs came up in the game.
Arrieta denies he takes any banned substance.
He responded to a USA Today story that highlighted suspicions PEDs helped his transformation from an inconsistent, uncertain pitcher with the Orioles into an absolutely dominant force on the mound.
“I know there has been situations where somebody took something maybe unknowingly,” Arrieta said. “Due process was taken and they found out maybe it wasn’t what they thought it was. But if it’s a blatant attempt to cheat the system with a serious steroid, then I think maybe (a zero-tolerance policy would work).
“If you’re going to put your career in jeopardy, then you’re willing to take that chance. There’s food and supplements that you can take legally that will better your body and help you stay healthy and perform throughout the course of the season.
“Shortcuts are something that’s always been around in all sports. But as a union, we’re trying to do everything we can to weed those guys out of this game,” he said.
With the collective bargaining agreement set to expire after this season, labor negotiations between MLB and the players’ union have already begun. Arrieta isn’t sure if the answer is adding to the list of banned substances.
“The list is ridiculously long,” Arrieta said. “I eat plants and I eat lean protein and that’s my gig. That’s what I do. I watch what I eat and I train properly. That’s no secret. My mom’s 6-1 and my dad’s 6-4, so I’m going to be big. I do Pilates – and I strength-train with heavy weights occasionally – and this is the result.”
The biggest change in Arrieta's pitching was that he came to Chicago and asked his coaches if he could go back to his original pitching mechanics. Those mechanics of throwing across his body usually causes extreme torque on a pitcher's shoulder and elbow. That motion has ruined the careers of many pitchers, including Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, whose former straight line motion scouts called the perfect release and throw. But under the pressure and work load of a major league starter, the arm starts to weaken and drop across the chest. Arrieta's unconventional delivery is what makes hitting against him very difficult. The ball to a right handed hitter appears to be coming directly at him - - - then breaks over the plate. That moment freezes a hitter, which messes up the hitter's timing, and makes Arrieta a dominating pitcher.
Arrieta's work out routine is famous. He stretches constantly which keeps his muscles and ligaments loose (just as lanky pitchers from past eras could pitch complete games without pitch counts). He keeps himself in shape. He has the mental toughness to be a professional at his craft. He takes at least 10 tests a year. There is no report that he has failed any one.
But the rumors will always surround baseball. Fans had been lied to for a long time to be cynical about the purity of the game.
Arrieta not only got better - - - he has become the best in baseball. Two no-hitters in 11 starts is proof of a totally different pitcher than the one the Orioles decided was not in their future.
But now, the public whispers suspicions that Arrieta could not have gotten this good, this quick, without some artificial help. Baseball was in denial for most of the steroid era. It recaptured fans with the McGwire-Sosa juiced home run race. Light hitting utility infielders were suddenly hitting 25 home runs. Player contracts skyrocketed in value under new cable television deals. There was plenty of incentive for all sides to look the other way when the topic of PEDs came up in the game.
Arrieta denies he takes any banned substance.
He responded to a USA Today story that highlighted suspicions PEDs helped his transformation from an inconsistent, uncertain pitcher with the Orioles into an absolutely dominant force on the mound.
“I know there has been situations where somebody took something maybe unknowingly,” Arrieta said. “Due process was taken and they found out maybe it wasn’t what they thought it was. But if it’s a blatant attempt to cheat the system with a serious steroid, then I think maybe (a zero-tolerance policy would work).
“If you’re going to put your career in jeopardy, then you’re willing to take that chance. There’s food and supplements that you can take legally that will better your body and help you stay healthy and perform throughout the course of the season.
“Shortcuts are something that’s always been around in all sports. But as a union, we’re trying to do everything we can to weed those guys out of this game,” he said.
With the collective bargaining agreement set to expire after this season, labor negotiations between MLB and the players’ union have already begun. Arrieta isn’t sure if the answer is adding to the list of banned substances.
“The list is ridiculously long,” Arrieta said. “I eat plants and I eat lean protein and that’s my gig. That’s what I do. I watch what I eat and I train properly. That’s no secret. My mom’s 6-1 and my dad’s 6-4, so I’m going to be big. I do Pilates – and I strength-train with heavy weights occasionally – and this is the result.”
The biggest change in Arrieta's pitching was that he came to Chicago and asked his coaches if he could go back to his original pitching mechanics. Those mechanics of throwing across his body usually causes extreme torque on a pitcher's shoulder and elbow. That motion has ruined the careers of many pitchers, including Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, whose former straight line motion scouts called the perfect release and throw. But under the pressure and work load of a major league starter, the arm starts to weaken and drop across the chest. Arrieta's unconventional delivery is what makes hitting against him very difficult. The ball to a right handed hitter appears to be coming directly at him - - - then breaks over the plate. That moment freezes a hitter, which messes up the hitter's timing, and makes Arrieta a dominating pitcher.
Arrieta's work out routine is famous. He stretches constantly which keeps his muscles and ligaments loose (just as lanky pitchers from past eras could pitch complete games without pitch counts). He keeps himself in shape. He has the mental toughness to be a professional at his craft. He takes at least 10 tests a year. There is no report that he has failed any one.
But the rumors will always surround baseball. Fans had been lied to for a long time to be cynical about the purity of the game.
April 22, 2016
A MONSTER
Jake Arrieta is better than just pretty damn good.
Arrieta has thrown 24 consecutive quality starts in the regular season.
He's 20-1 in those games, with an 0.84 ERA, 0.50 WHIP and 173 strikeouts against just 33 walks.
What changed since Baltimore traded the disappointing prospect to the Cubs for Scott Feldman?
First, Arrieta said last year that when he came to the Cubs, he asked the coaching staff if he could revert to his old pitching style. This meant that he would be throwing across his body. Throwing across your chest is a serious "no no" for pitching coaches because normally it puts additional strain on the shoulder and elbow. Pitchers are taught to throw the ball downhill and not across.
But Arrieta grew up throwing the ball in the unconventional manner. The Cubs relented to have Arrieta find his own comfort zone.
Second, Arrieta went on a mediation/yoga/stretching/work out madness routine. He developed a core strength and flexibility. This goes hand in hand with making his unusual mechanics work.
Third, Arrieta's release point is very hard for batters to pick up. He stands on the right side of the rubber. Since he is throwing across his body, his shoulder makes a fuller turn away from the batter. As he comes through, the batter sees the ball release behind them (to a right handed hitter) then whip across the plate at 96 mph to the lower, outside corner of the zone. That split second "is the ball going to hit me" moment for batters is enough for Arrieta to control the count.
Fourth, Arrieta has a zen presence on the mound. Nothing seems to phase him. If he does not get a strike call, he does not growl or yell at the home plate umpire; he takes the ball and throws a better pitch. Some pitchers lose their cool on the mound (especially when they are struggling). If you maintain a professional demeanor on the mound, the home plate umpire will respect the pitcher more and give him the border calls.
So Arrieta has developed into a pitching monster. He is strong, reliable, consistent as the sun rising in the morning, and mentally tough. The Cubs know they will not have a long losing streak because Arrieta is in the rotation. He is the perfect compliment to Jon Lester's mound grumpiness or John Lackey's pitching anger.
Arrieta has thrown 24 consecutive quality starts in the regular season.
He's 20-1 in those games, with an 0.84 ERA, 0.50 WHIP and 173 strikeouts against just 33 walks.
What changed since Baltimore traded the disappointing prospect to the Cubs for Scott Feldman?
First, Arrieta said last year that when he came to the Cubs, he asked the coaching staff if he could revert to his old pitching style. This meant that he would be throwing across his body. Throwing across your chest is a serious "no no" for pitching coaches because normally it puts additional strain on the shoulder and elbow. Pitchers are taught to throw the ball downhill and not across.
But Arrieta grew up throwing the ball in the unconventional manner. The Cubs relented to have Arrieta find his own comfort zone.
Second, Arrieta went on a mediation/yoga/stretching/work out madness routine. He developed a core strength and flexibility. This goes hand in hand with making his unusual mechanics work.
Third, Arrieta's release point is very hard for batters to pick up. He stands on the right side of the rubber. Since he is throwing across his body, his shoulder makes a fuller turn away from the batter. As he comes through, the batter sees the ball release behind them (to a right handed hitter) then whip across the plate at 96 mph to the lower, outside corner of the zone. That split second "is the ball going to hit me" moment for batters is enough for Arrieta to control the count.
Fourth, Arrieta has a zen presence on the mound. Nothing seems to phase him. If he does not get a strike call, he does not growl or yell at the home plate umpire; he takes the ball and throws a better pitch. Some pitchers lose their cool on the mound (especially when they are struggling). If you maintain a professional demeanor on the mound, the home plate umpire will respect the pitcher more and give him the border calls.
So Arrieta has developed into a pitching monster. He is strong, reliable, consistent as the sun rising in the morning, and mentally tough. The Cubs know they will not have a long losing streak because Arrieta is in the rotation. He is the perfect compliment to Jon Lester's mound grumpiness or John Lackey's pitching anger.
February 13, 2016
ARRIETA'S DEAL
The Cubs avoided an arbitration hearing with Jake Arrieta.
AP reported that the sides agreed to a $10.7 million salary for the 2016 season. That marks the highest salary on a one-year deal for a pitcher with four years of service, the AP notes. Arrieta and the Cubs were set to go before an independent arbitrator but now can simply focus on the season ahead.
Arrieta, 29, is in his second of three years of arbitration eligibility. He had filed for $13 million while the Cubs countered at $7.5 million. The $5.5 million gap was the largest among players who did not come to terms with their respective teams by the January deadline. The $10.7 million salary is $450,000 above the midpoint between the two submitted figures.
Theo Epstein has prided himself on the fact that he does not take his players to hearings. They settle.
Players often come out of contested arbitration hearings with negative attitudes towards their clubs because general managers have to present a "negative" case against them. However, having a team policy of "no hearings" does give the player's agent more leverage on a settlement deal.
The $10.7 million settlement is the highest arb deal, beating out David Price's $10.1 million.
Arrieta is being paid for an excellent 2015 campaign. He now becomes the ace of the staff. Whether he can stay healthy after a record number of innings pitched is going to be the key to the 2015 campaign. He threw 45 percent more innings in 2015 than in 2014.
Many people have thought that the Cubs now should try to lock up Arrieta on a long term deal. However, players will not give up the chance to test the free agent market. He becomes a free agent in 2018, so the Cubs have two more years of service time with him. The Cubs would rather use the limited budget resources to fill the roster gaps than pay Arrieta on a long term deal.
Clearly, the championship window has opened for the Cubs. It has a realistic two year window because that is how long they will control Arrieta.
AP reported that the sides agreed to a $10.7 million salary for the 2016 season. That marks the highest salary on a one-year deal for a pitcher with four years of service, the AP notes. Arrieta and the Cubs were set to go before an independent arbitrator but now can simply focus on the season ahead.
Arrieta, 29, is in his second of three years of arbitration eligibility. He had filed for $13 million while the Cubs countered at $7.5 million. The $5.5 million gap was the largest among players who did not come to terms with their respective teams by the January deadline. The $10.7 million salary is $450,000 above the midpoint between the two submitted figures.
Theo Epstein has prided himself on the fact that he does not take his players to hearings. They settle.
Players often come out of contested arbitration hearings with negative attitudes towards their clubs because general managers have to present a "negative" case against them. However, having a team policy of "no hearings" does give the player's agent more leverage on a settlement deal.
The $10.7 million settlement is the highest arb deal, beating out David Price's $10.1 million.
Arrieta is being paid for an excellent 2015 campaign. He now becomes the ace of the staff. Whether he can stay healthy after a record number of innings pitched is going to be the key to the 2015 campaign. He threw 45 percent more innings in 2015 than in 2014.
Many people have thought that the Cubs now should try to lock up Arrieta on a long term deal. However, players will not give up the chance to test the free agent market. He becomes a free agent in 2018, so the Cubs have two more years of service time with him. The Cubs would rather use the limited budget resources to fill the roster gaps than pay Arrieta on a long term deal.
Clearly, the championship window has opened for the Cubs. It has a realistic two year window because that is how long they will control Arrieta.
November 20, 2015
CY YOUNGS
The Cubs have had only five Cy Young Award winners.
1992: Greg Maddux
1984: Rick Sutcliffe
1979: Bruce Sutter
1971: Ferguson Jenkins
2015: Jake Arrieta
Both Maddux and Jenkins lead their league in wins, and Sutter led in saves.
In their Cy Young years:
Maddux: 20-11, 2.18 ERA, 1.011 WHIP, 9.2 WAR
Sutcliffe: 20-6, 3.64 ERA, 1.304 WHIP, 3.9 WAR (he was 16-1, 2.69 ERA with the Cubs)
Sutter: 6-6, 2.22 ERA, 0.977 WHIP, 37 saves, 4.9 WAR
Jenkins: 24-13, 2.77 ERA, 1.049 WHIP, 10.4 WAR
Arrieta: 22-6, 1.77 ERA, 0.865 WHIP, 6.9 WAR
To say Arrieta joins elite company would be an understatement.
With 8.0 WAR being classified as "MVP" candidate, Maddux and Jenkins Cy Young WARs were epic. Arrieta did not best them in WAR, but he crushed it on ERA and WHIP.
1992: Greg Maddux
1984: Rick Sutcliffe
1979: Bruce Sutter
1971: Ferguson Jenkins
2015: Jake Arrieta
Both Maddux and Jenkins lead their league in wins, and Sutter led in saves.
In their Cy Young years:
Maddux: 20-11, 2.18 ERA, 1.011 WHIP, 9.2 WAR
Sutcliffe: 20-6, 3.64 ERA, 1.304 WHIP, 3.9 WAR (he was 16-1, 2.69 ERA with the Cubs)
Sutter: 6-6, 2.22 ERA, 0.977 WHIP, 37 saves, 4.9 WAR
Jenkins: 24-13, 2.77 ERA, 1.049 WHIP, 10.4 WAR
Arrieta: 22-6, 1.77 ERA, 0.865 WHIP, 6.9 WAR
To say Arrieta joins elite company would be an understatement.
With 8.0 WAR being classified as "MVP" candidate, Maddux and Jenkins Cy Young WARs were epic. Arrieta did not best them in WAR, but he crushed it on ERA and WHIP.
October 19, 2015
OUT OF BULLETS
When you use your only two bullets, and miss, it is tough to win the gunfight.
The Cubs used their best two regular season pitchers, Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta, against the Mets in the NLCS and the team lost both games.
Now, the series returns to Wrigley with uncertain Cubs starting pitching coming to the forefront.
Maddon has been using "bullpen days" since the end of the season. But bullpen relievers are really failed starters (Wood, Cahill, Richard, etc.) Maddon has every starter except Lester and Arrieta on a short leash. Some say Maddon kept Lester and Arrieta in their NLCS games too long.
Since Game 3 is really "do or die" for the series, Maddon has to risk burning his bullpen to the ground to get a win. Part of the problem with the current roster is that for some dumb reason, Addison Russell was replaced with Quintin Berry, a pinch runner, when the team knew pitching was an issue. Dan Haren should have been added to the roster to either pitch Game 4 of the series, or be available to take long relief if Hendricks or Hammel stinks up early in their starts. This roster move could haunt the team history worst than any non-game fan curse.
Maddon is also really relying heavily on T. Wood and Cahill in middle relief. Their innings are higher than the rest of the bullpen combined.
Things would be different if the young Cubs hitters would actually hit. But the Mets invested heavily on quality starting pitchers, and the old axiom is holding true that "great pitching takes care of great hitting" in the playoffs.
The Cubs used their best two regular season pitchers, Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta, against the Mets in the NLCS and the team lost both games.
Now, the series returns to Wrigley with uncertain Cubs starting pitching coming to the forefront.
Neither Kyle Hendricks or Jason Hammel have pitched well enough to earn Joe Maddon's trust. In the post season, Hendricks has allowed three runs over
4 2/3 innings, and he was pulled early despite the fact the Cubs had
scored six runs behind him. Hammel found himself in a similar situation,
departing after allowing two runs over three innings in Game 4 of the
NLDS.
Maddon has been using "bullpen days" since the end of the season. But bullpen relievers are really failed starters (Wood, Cahill, Richard, etc.) Maddon has every starter except Lester and Arrieta on a short leash. Some say Maddon kept Lester and Arrieta in their NLCS games too long.
Since Game 3 is really "do or die" for the series, Maddon has to risk burning his bullpen to the ground to get a win. Part of the problem with the current roster is that for some dumb reason, Addison Russell was replaced with Quintin Berry, a pinch runner, when the team knew pitching was an issue. Dan Haren should have been added to the roster to either pitch Game 4 of the series, or be available to take long relief if Hendricks or Hammel stinks up early in their starts. This roster move could haunt the team history worst than any non-game fan curse.
Maddon is also really relying heavily on T. Wood and Cahill in middle relief. Their innings are higher than the rest of the bullpen combined.
Things would be different if the young Cubs hitters would actually hit. But the Mets invested heavily on quality starting pitchers, and the old axiom is holding true that "great pitching takes care of great hitting" in the playoffs.
October 12, 2015
THE DUEL
If you thought the Jake Arrieta-Garrett Cole match up was going to be epic, think again.
In Pittsburgh, without his best stuff, Arrieta took the one game, Game 7 vibe, to a victory over the Pirates.
Today, on paper, is a better pitching duel. Arrieta (22-6, 1.77 ERA) vs. Michael Wacha (17-7, 3.38 ERA).
However, Wacha has been scuffing in September with a bloated ERA. The Cardinals began resting their starters once they clinched a playoff berth, but the rest has not helped them.
The Cardinals believed they "gifted" Game 2 to the Cubs so they may be a little bitter and more motivated tonight. However, the errors caused by the Cardinals were made because of the intense pressure applied by the Cubs hitters and runners. The Cubs have to continue to put pressure on the Cardinals defense.
Wrigley Field will be a madhouse tonight. Ticket prices are soaring; box seats are being asked in the secondary market for $8,300.00, standing room $150.00.
Since this is Columbus Day, a semi-bank holiday, the fans will be out to Wrigleyville drinking early and often. The crowd will be louder than St. Louis.
The forecast is for a breezy night - - - 14 mph winds blowing out to right field. How the right field scoreboard effects the wind will be on display tonight.
Maddon has a choice to make: Schwarber or Soler, both hot hitters. The solution would be to play both of them, then substitute defense later in the game. If Wacha is off, the Cubs need to score early and often. Otherwise, it could be nail biter.
The one thing that can be counted on is Arrieta. He has the stone faced determination of an assassin when he takes the mound. He expects to win. He expects to throw a complete game. He is a throwback to the 1960s-1970s pitchers like Bob Gibson and Fergie Jenkins. He is the gunslinger with a quicker draw than hitters.
Again, this is a game the Cubs really need to win. Game 4 is a Jason Hammel, bullpen game so anything can happen. But everyone is counting on Arrieta tonight to be Cy Young worthy.
It should be another great baseball game.
In Pittsburgh, without his best stuff, Arrieta took the one game, Game 7 vibe, to a victory over the Pirates.
Today, on paper, is a better pitching duel. Arrieta (22-6, 1.77 ERA) vs. Michael Wacha (17-7, 3.38 ERA).
However, Wacha has been scuffing in September with a bloated ERA. The Cardinals began resting their starters once they clinched a playoff berth, but the rest has not helped them.
The Cardinals believed they "gifted" Game 2 to the Cubs so they may be a little bitter and more motivated tonight. However, the errors caused by the Cardinals were made because of the intense pressure applied by the Cubs hitters and runners. The Cubs have to continue to put pressure on the Cardinals defense.
Wrigley Field will be a madhouse tonight. Ticket prices are soaring; box seats are being asked in the secondary market for $8,300.00, standing room $150.00.
Since this is Columbus Day, a semi-bank holiday, the fans will be out to Wrigleyville drinking early and often. The crowd will be louder than St. Louis.
The forecast is for a breezy night - - - 14 mph winds blowing out to right field. How the right field scoreboard effects the wind will be on display tonight.
Maddon has a choice to make: Schwarber or Soler, both hot hitters. The solution would be to play both of them, then substitute defense later in the game. If Wacha is off, the Cubs need to score early and often. Otherwise, it could be nail biter.
The one thing that can be counted on is Arrieta. He has the stone faced determination of an assassin when he takes the mound. He expects to win. He expects to throw a complete game. He is a throwback to the 1960s-1970s pitchers like Bob Gibson and Fergie Jenkins. He is the gunslinger with a quicker draw than hitters.
Again, this is a game the Cubs really need to win. Game 4 is a Jason Hammel, bullpen game so anything can happen. But everyone is counting on Arrieta tonight to be Cy Young worthy.
It should be another great baseball game.
October 8, 2015
GAME THOUGHTS
Here are my game thoughts from the Cubs victory over the Bucs:
1. Enough with the Tommy LaStella in the line-up. The idea that Bryant is a liability at third
was clearly erased last night. And LaStella's contact bat was silent last night.
2. When Arrieta takes the mound, he does not think he could win - - - he expects to win.
And his team thinks the same thing which is an extremely powerful mental edge, something
that the Blackhawks have had in their championship runs.
3. Arrieta did not even have his best command. He looked like he got tired and hit the wall
in the middle innings. I was questioning why Maddon did not take him out for Rondon in the 9th,
but I guess Arrieta/Maddon wanted to make a statement to the rest of the pitching staff
that old school "give me the ball at first pitch and let me end it" is still alive in the modern game. This reminds me of the White Sox starters during their 2005 World Series run.
4. The Schwarber home run may still be in orbit. He crushed it. With a 3-0 lead, with Arrieta on
the mound, the Pirate fans were silenced for most of the rest of the game. At that point, very few
thought the Cubs would lose the game.
5. Why do the Wild Card winners do so well in the post season? The Wild Card game is played
like a Game 7 so that pressure and experience must have some carry over into the next series.
6. Next up is the litmus test of how well Theo spent $155 million. Lester is supposed to be the
proven post-season ace. He has the champion bulldog determination to carry a team. In the
St. Louis series, he will pitch twice. He is the key to the series.
1. Enough with the Tommy LaStella in the line-up. The idea that Bryant is a liability at third
was clearly erased last night. And LaStella's contact bat was silent last night.
2. When Arrieta takes the mound, he does not think he could win - - - he expects to win.
And his team thinks the same thing which is an extremely powerful mental edge, something
that the Blackhawks have had in their championship runs.
3. Arrieta did not even have his best command. He looked like he got tired and hit the wall
in the middle innings. I was questioning why Maddon did not take him out for Rondon in the 9th,
but I guess Arrieta/Maddon wanted to make a statement to the rest of the pitching staff
that old school "give me the ball at first pitch and let me end it" is still alive in the modern game. This reminds me of the White Sox starters during their 2005 World Series run.
4. The Schwarber home run may still be in orbit. He crushed it. With a 3-0 lead, with Arrieta on
the mound, the Pirate fans were silenced for most of the rest of the game. At that point, very few
thought the Cubs would lose the game.
5. Why do the Wild Card winners do so well in the post season? The Wild Card game is played
like a Game 7 so that pressure and experience must have some carry over into the next series.
6. Next up is the litmus test of how well Theo spent $155 million. Lester is supposed to be the
proven post-season ace. He has the champion bulldog determination to carry a team. In the
St. Louis series, he will pitch twice. He is the key to the series.
October 5, 2015
THE CUBS SEASON WAR
The 2015 Cubs surprised the world by going 97-65. They ended 20 games better than my pre-season prediction. The Pythagorean record for the Cubs this year was 90-72. I equate the difference in manager Joe Maddon, who would get a 7.0 WAR, for his unique style of getting a team of veterans and youngsters to gel in such a short period of time.
But the Cubs team was really dominated by their starting players, with three who really carried the team on their backs and into the playoffs.
Regular season position players/WAR:
Montero, c 1.8
Rizzo, lf 6.3
Russell, ss 3.4
Castro, 2b 0.7
Bryant, 3b 6.0
Coghlan, lf 1.9
Fowler, cf 2.2
Soler, rf (0.1)
Position starters totaled 22.2 WAR of the team total 23.3 WAR, or 95.3% of total offense WAR.
Regular season starting pitchers and closer/WAR:
Arrieta, sp 8.6
Lester, sp 2.9
Hendricks, sp 1.7
Hammel, sp 1.6
Haren, sp 0.2
Rondon, cl 2.1
These key pitchers totalled 17.1 WAR of the team total 18.5 WAR or 92.4% of total pitching WAR.
Arrieta's individual WAR was 50.3 % of the total team pitching WAR.
Rizzo's individual WAR was 27% of the total team offense WAR.
Bryant's individual WAR was 25.75% of the total team offense WAR.
Arrieta, Rizzo and Bryant carried more than half their position team WAR.
Combined, these three players had 50% of total team WAR.
But the Cubs team was really dominated by their starting players, with three who really carried the team on their backs and into the playoffs.
Regular season position players/WAR:
Montero, c 1.8
Rizzo, lf 6.3
Russell, ss 3.4
Castro, 2b 0.7
Bryant, 3b 6.0
Coghlan, lf 1.9
Fowler, cf 2.2
Soler, rf (0.1)
Position starters totaled 22.2 WAR of the team total 23.3 WAR, or 95.3% of total offense WAR.
Regular season starting pitchers and closer/WAR:
Arrieta, sp 8.6
Lester, sp 2.9
Hendricks, sp 1.7
Hammel, sp 1.6
Haren, sp 0.2
Rondon, cl 2.1
These key pitchers totalled 17.1 WAR of the team total 18.5 WAR or 92.4% of total pitching WAR.
Arrieta's individual WAR was 50.3 % of the total team pitching WAR.
Rizzo's individual WAR was 27% of the total team offense WAR.
Bryant's individual WAR was 25.75% of the total team offense WAR.
Arrieta, Rizzo and Bryant carried more than half their position team WAR.
Combined, these three players had 50% of total team WAR.
September 28, 2015
WILD CARD DUEL
It looks like an old fashioned, Old West Wild Card Duel.
Jake Arrieta against Gerrit Cole on October 7, 2015 in the wild card game.
Arrieta has faced the Pirates 5 times this season. His record is 3-1.
Over 36 IP, he has allowd 18 H, 3 ER, 8 BB, 33 K for a 0.722 WHIP.
Cole has faced the Cubs 4 times this season. His record is 2-1.
Over 25.1 IP, Cole has allowed 20 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 32 for a 0.947 WHIP.
Arrieta has an ERA against the Pirates of 0.75.
Cole has an ERA against the Cubs of 2.13 ERA.
Arrieta has walked more Pirates per game than Cole.
Cole has more strikeouts per game than Arrieta.
But based on the metrics, Arrieta seems to have an advantage in the Wild Card game over Cole.
But there are variables in play. Arrieta has been getting better as the season has progressed. The home plate umpire and the unpredictable strike zone can either help or hurt the pitcher. And it may come down to defense. Depending on Maddon's choices, Pirates would have an advantage in defensive WAR.
The Cubs-Pirates Wild Card game clearly is going to be a low scoring, old school pitcher's duel.
Jake Arrieta against Gerrit Cole on October 7, 2015 in the wild card game.
Arrieta has faced the Pirates 5 times this season. His record is 3-1.
Over 36 IP, he has allowd 18 H, 3 ER, 8 BB, 33 K for a 0.722 WHIP.
Cole has faced the Cubs 4 times this season. His record is 2-1.
Over 25.1 IP, Cole has allowed 20 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 32 for a 0.947 WHIP.
Arrieta has an ERA against the Pirates of 0.75.
Cole has an ERA against the Cubs of 2.13 ERA.
Arrieta has walked more Pirates per game than Cole.
Cole has more strikeouts per game than Arrieta.
But based on the metrics, Arrieta seems to have an advantage in the Wild Card game over Cole.
But there are variables in play. Arrieta has been getting better as the season has progressed. The home plate umpire and the unpredictable strike zone can either help or hurt the pitcher. And it may come down to defense. Depending on Maddon's choices, Pirates would have an advantage in defensive WAR.
The Cubs-Pirates Wild Card game clearly is going to be a low scoring, old school pitcher's duel.
September 24, 2015
DOMINATING
After Jake Arrieta's complete game, 20th win, I thought of the last dominating Cubs pitcher in a playoff push. Rick Sutcliffe.
Sutcliffe came in a mid season trade with Cleveland.
For the Cubs in 1984, he went 16-1, 2.69 ERA, 1.078 WHIP and 3.9 WAR.
In the playoffs, he went 1-1, 3.38 ERA in 13.1 IP for 1.1275 WHIP.
The Cubs only used 8 pitchers in the Padre series. Sutcliffe won Game 1 of the series,
and was tagged with the Game 5 loss.
This year, Arrieta is 20-6, 1.88 ERA, 0.902 WHIP and 8.0 WAR (MVP caliber ranking).
Arrieta has dominated hitters with his unbelievable command. His WHIP is 44% better than the league average 1.30. As I watched him mow down the Brewers, I saw a very small trait which shows why he is so good this season. Arrieta's delivery is across his body, something that pitching coaches abhor because it leads to arm and shoulder issues. Pitching coaches teach a straight line delivery toward the plate. Arrieta has a quiet compensation that works for him. As he does a slight rocking motion on the rubber, he clears his left hip slightly which lessens the arm angle across his chest.
The hip rotation, like in a golf swing, generates more power.
This simple technique is very repeatable and works for all four of his pitches. With the same release point with command of four plus pitches, Arrieta has become one of the best pitchers in the majors.
The Cubs, 89-62 after Arrieta's win, are 15 games above my preseason prediction. Little did we know that the front office would promote the new young core of Russell, Schwarber and Baez to the majors this season. Arrieta is a big part of the surprising win total. In 2014, he only had 10 wins. He has already doubled that total this year.
Whether Arrieta is an MVP candidate will be philosophically debated by the sports writers. But clearly, Arrieta's presence on the mound has helped create a winning atmosphere in the Cubs locker room. He is the Cubs' MVP.
Sutcliffe came in a mid season trade with Cleveland.
For the Cubs in 1984, he went 16-1, 2.69 ERA, 1.078 WHIP and 3.9 WAR.
In the playoffs, he went 1-1, 3.38 ERA in 13.1 IP for 1.1275 WHIP.
The Cubs only used 8 pitchers in the Padre series. Sutcliffe won Game 1 of the series,
and was tagged with the Game 5 loss.
This year, Arrieta is 20-6, 1.88 ERA, 0.902 WHIP and 8.0 WAR (MVP caliber ranking).
Arrieta has dominated hitters with his unbelievable command. His WHIP is 44% better than the league average 1.30. As I watched him mow down the Brewers, I saw a very small trait which shows why he is so good this season. Arrieta's delivery is across his body, something that pitching coaches abhor because it leads to arm and shoulder issues. Pitching coaches teach a straight line delivery toward the plate. Arrieta has a quiet compensation that works for him. As he does a slight rocking motion on the rubber, he clears his left hip slightly which lessens the arm angle across his chest.
The hip rotation, like in a golf swing, generates more power.
This simple technique is very repeatable and works for all four of his pitches. With the same release point with command of four plus pitches, Arrieta has become one of the best pitchers in the majors.
The Cubs, 89-62 after Arrieta's win, are 15 games above my preseason prediction. Little did we know that the front office would promote the new young core of Russell, Schwarber and Baez to the majors this season. Arrieta is a big part of the surprising win total. In 2014, he only had 10 wins. He has already doubled that total this year.
Whether Arrieta is an MVP candidate will be philosophically debated by the sports writers. But clearly, Arrieta's presence on the mound has helped create a winning atmosphere in the Cubs locker room. He is the Cubs' MVP.
August 31, 2015
NO HITTER
The national ESPN broadcast was very good last night. It was different with Jessica Mendoza as an analyst, but she was informative and fun with John Kruk. It was conversational throughout the night.
What was interesting about the broadcast was the back ground information on Jake Arrieta, now 17-6, 2.11 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Arrieta told the Cubs after the trade that he wanted to get back to throwing the way he did as a kid. It was a motion that the Orioles wanted to eliminate because it was a cross the chest delivery which many believe tends to create arm injuries in power pitchers. But the Cubs let Arrieta go back to what makes him comfortable. It has paid off, big time.
Also from last night's game was a primer on how to be a really effective pitcher. Arrieta's pitches all start in the middle of the strike zone, then dip and dive left and right. A batter sees his release point and immediately thinks strike, but as he begins to swing, his bat tells him it is not. But at that moment, it is too late. The prime example of this was Arrieta striking out the Dodgers in the 9th to complete his no hitter.
I also agree that Starlin Castro made an error. The sharply hit ball to him hit him then bounced away. I am a proponent of the rule that if the ball hits a fielder, he should be able to make a play. And if the home field scorer saw it as an error, it confirms my thesis.
In my lifetime, the Cubs have had 7 no hitters. I have seen on television 5 of the 7 no hitters. This is probably unique because WGN-TV carried all the Cubs games and baseball was a fixture of my viewing habits. Today, a nationally televised no hitter is a rarity.
This also cements the fact that Arrieta, with his consistent control and command (this was his 14th straight quality start, tying a club record by Greg Maddux), is clearly the ace of the staff.
What was interesting about the broadcast was the back ground information on Jake Arrieta, now 17-6, 2.11 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Arrieta told the Cubs after the trade that he wanted to get back to throwing the way he did as a kid. It was a motion that the Orioles wanted to eliminate because it was a cross the chest delivery which many believe tends to create arm injuries in power pitchers. But the Cubs let Arrieta go back to what makes him comfortable. It has paid off, big time.
Also from last night's game was a primer on how to be a really effective pitcher. Arrieta's pitches all start in the middle of the strike zone, then dip and dive left and right. A batter sees his release point and immediately thinks strike, but as he begins to swing, his bat tells him it is not. But at that moment, it is too late. The prime example of this was Arrieta striking out the Dodgers in the 9th to complete his no hitter.
I also agree that Starlin Castro made an error. The sharply hit ball to him hit him then bounced away. I am a proponent of the rule that if the ball hits a fielder, he should be able to make a play. And if the home field scorer saw it as an error, it confirms my thesis.
In my lifetime, the Cubs have had 7 no hitters. I have seen on television 5 of the 7 no hitters. This is probably unique because WGN-TV carried all the Cubs games and baseball was a fixture of my viewing habits. Today, a nationally televised no hitter is a rarity.
This also cements the fact that Arrieta, with his consistent control and command (this was his 14th straight quality start, tying a club record by Greg Maddux), is clearly the ace of the staff.
May 14, 2015
DIFFERENT APPROACH
The Mets have had a series of quality young starters come to the majors. In this homestand, the Mets latest young gun, Noah Syndergaard made his debut.
He threw 5.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 6 K and 4 BB. He threw 103 pitches, 56 for strikes (54.3%). The Mets lost the game to the Cubs, behind Jake Arrieta who went 8 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 10 K, and 2 BB. Arrieta threw 116 pitches, 70 for strikes (60.3%).
An infield hit by Kris Bryant, who flew down the first base line, kept an inning going with two outs. It seemed to rattle Syndergaard. He threw many more pitches because of that hustle play, so it ended his night early.
What was interesting to see is the contrasting styles of the two starters.
Syndergaard has a short arm power delivery which can get his fast ball up to 97 mph. His motion is a bit of a mechanical cheat to increase velocity since he is whipping his forearm and wrist during the motion to the plate. This adds velocity but it also adds torque to his elbow ligaments.
Young pitchers are fixated from youth baseball through the minors on two points: fastball velocity and strikeout totals. Those two stats gets pitchers noticed in high school, college, the draft and signing a pro contract. Young pitchers try to get the most velocity they can with their mechanics. Every person is built differently; each with his own body tolerances and elasticity. Chris Sale has mastered a buggy whip delivery which most other pitchers could never control. During the telecast, Syndergaard was compared to Wade Miller, a former pitcher with a short arm delivery.
Miller had a so-so career. He had shoulder and elbow problems which caused him several stints on the disabled list. And that should be the concern for the Mets, that Syndergaard's delivery could increase the risk of injury. During his pro start, one could tell that he began to fall off the side of the mound instead of pushing straight toward the plate. This slide adds another motion (or force plane) to an otherwise stressful delivery.
In contrast, Arrieta has a long straight arm motion delivery to the plate. It is a circular catapult-like motion that looks "easy" and flowing. Pitching coaches like this style of delivery because it puts less stress on shoulder and elbow. And that this motion is easily repeatable - - - getting a pitcher in an early game rhythm is important.
Arrieta averaged 4.83 pitches per out in his victory.
Syndergaard averaged 6.4375 pitches per out.
Rookie pitchers tend to try to overpower hitters because that is what has worked throughout their development. But pitching in the majors is more an art form than power play. Arrieta was much more efficient in getting outs, therefore he lasted longer in the game. And being efficient does not mean Arrieta could not gather strike out victims.
It is clear that Arrieta is a more polished pitcher than Syndergaard. However, if Syndergaard can keep off the disabled list he should be another fine addition to the young Mets rotation.
He threw 5.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 6 K and 4 BB. He threw 103 pitches, 56 for strikes (54.3%). The Mets lost the game to the Cubs, behind Jake Arrieta who went 8 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 10 K, and 2 BB. Arrieta threw 116 pitches, 70 for strikes (60.3%).
An infield hit by Kris Bryant, who flew down the first base line, kept an inning going with two outs. It seemed to rattle Syndergaard. He threw many more pitches because of that hustle play, so it ended his night early.
What was interesting to see is the contrasting styles of the two starters.
Syndergaard has a short arm power delivery which can get his fast ball up to 97 mph. His motion is a bit of a mechanical cheat to increase velocity since he is whipping his forearm and wrist during the motion to the plate. This adds velocity but it also adds torque to his elbow ligaments.
Young pitchers are fixated from youth baseball through the minors on two points: fastball velocity and strikeout totals. Those two stats gets pitchers noticed in high school, college, the draft and signing a pro contract. Young pitchers try to get the most velocity they can with their mechanics. Every person is built differently; each with his own body tolerances and elasticity. Chris Sale has mastered a buggy whip delivery which most other pitchers could never control. During the telecast, Syndergaard was compared to Wade Miller, a former pitcher with a short arm delivery.
Miller had a so-so career. He had shoulder and elbow problems which caused him several stints on the disabled list. And that should be the concern for the Mets, that Syndergaard's delivery could increase the risk of injury. During his pro start, one could tell that he began to fall off the side of the mound instead of pushing straight toward the plate. This slide adds another motion (or force plane) to an otherwise stressful delivery.
In contrast, Arrieta has a long straight arm motion delivery to the plate. It is a circular catapult-like motion that looks "easy" and flowing. Pitching coaches like this style of delivery because it puts less stress on shoulder and elbow. And that this motion is easily repeatable - - - getting a pitcher in an early game rhythm is important.
Arrieta averaged 4.83 pitches per out in his victory.
Syndergaard averaged 6.4375 pitches per out.
Rookie pitchers tend to try to overpower hitters because that is what has worked throughout their development. But pitching in the majors is more an art form than power play. Arrieta was much more efficient in getting outs, therefore he lasted longer in the game. And being efficient does not mean Arrieta could not gather strike out victims.
It is clear that Arrieta is a more polished pitcher than Syndergaard. However, if Syndergaard can keep off the disabled list he should be another fine addition to the young Mets rotation.
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