Is the Western World in Crisis?

NATO’s start in 1949 was a hardly a smooth one.

George Kennan, having advocated political and economic containment of the Soviet Union, opposed the formation of the military alliance. Norway was reluctant to join the transatlantic defense pact, fearful that accession might provoke Soviet military action. Portugal was similarly ambivalent. The authoritarian government of António de Oliveira Salazar — anti-communist, but also troubled by a rise of American influence — initially refused to participate in the Marshall Plan. The strategic environment was otherwise hardly settled. There was civil war in Greece. The Germans were tiring of occupation. And Washington’s increasingly assertive stance toward the Soviet domination of Eastern Europe was causing tension in most capitals across risk-averse Western Europe. The alliance was “held together with string, chewing gum and safety pins,” in those days, as Dean Acheson would later put it.

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Russia Threatening Response to NATO's military moves

Russia will reinforce its western and southern flanks with three new divisions by the year-end, officials said on Wednesday, threatening retaliation to NATO's plans to boost its military presence in eastern members Poland and the Baltic States.

While Moscow accuses the Western alliance of threatening its Russia's security, NATO says intensified military drills and its plans for increased deployments on its eastern flank are purely defensive after Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea in 2014 and backed separatist rebels in Ukraine.

U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said on Monday NATO was weighing up rotating four battalions of troops through eastern member states amid rising tension in the Baltic.

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Putin Names US, NATO as National Security Threats

A new appraisal names the United States as one of the threats to Russia's national security for the first time, a sign of how relations with the west have deteriorated in recent years.

The document, "About the Strategy of National Security of Russian Federation", was signed by President Vladimir Putin on New Year's Eve. It replaces a 2009 version, endorsed by then- President Dmitry Medvedev, the current prime minister, which mentioned neither the United States not NATO.

It says Russia has managed to heighten its role in solving global problems and international conflicts. That heightened role has caused a reaction by the West, it says.

"The strengthening of Russia happens against the background of new threats to the national security, which has complex and interrelated nature," the document says.

[...]

The document says that the United States and the EU have supported an "anti-constitutional coup d'etat in Ukraine", which led to a deep divide in Ukrainian society and a military conflict.

It also names the expansion of NATO as a threat to Russia's national security and said that the United States has expanded its network of military-biological laboratories in neighboring to Russia countries.

The document, which serves as a basis for planning strategy related to national security by different state bodies, does not mention Syria. On Sept. 30, Russia began air strikes against anti-government rebels opposed to the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a Russian ally.

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The Pentagon states there's no reason to declare the US an enemy.

NATO to Offer Montenegro Membership

The Balkan state of Montenegro will on Wednesday be formally invited to join the NATO military alliance, diplomatic sources said, a move which could further strain already difficult ties with Moscow.

The offer is expected to come after a meeting of foreign ministers from the 28-nation alliance in Brussels on Tuesday and Wednesday.

"The proposed text has been approved at (NATO) ambassador level," one source said Monday, asking not to be named. "After that, it would take at most a year and a half for Montenegro to become a member state," the source added.

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Ukraine Formally Abandons Nonaligned Status

Ukraine's parliament on Tuesday voted to abandon the country's nonaligned status, a move that could be a step toward seeking membership in NATO.

Supporters of the move, which passed by a 303-9 vote, said it was justified by Russian aggression toward Ukraine, including the annexation of its Crimean Peninsula in March and Russian support for a separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine, where some 4,700 people have been killed since the spring.

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Ukraine Seeking NATO Membership Again

Ukraine aims to get NATO membership "as quickly as conditions permit", according to Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. "And I would do that tomorrow if it was at all possible."

Speaking to reporters at a joint press conference after his meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on 15 December, Yatsenyuk said his country's security strategy is crystal clear.

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Bulgaria Delays Fighter Purchase

The saga of Bulgaria’s long-delayed purchase of new military jet fighters to meet Nato requirements is set to continue unresolved for a few more years because the state will give no investment loans or state guarantees for large projects before 2017.

This has emerged from a transcript of the Bulgarian cabinet’s November 26 meeting, at which Prime Minister Boiko Borissov and his ministers agreed only to support a project to construction a gas interconnector link with Greece.

The cabinet declined for now to give financial support to two major projects, the Defence Ministry’s 800 million leva modernisation project and the Regional Development Ministry’s plan to repair and modernise the road network, which has a price tag of about 300 million leva. Both would require a state loan.

Finance Minister Vladislav Goranov said that going ahead with the projects would raise the risk of defaulting on fiscal spending targets and would require significant changes in spending ceilings in the 2015/17 period.

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Most Spanish Eurofighters Cannot Fly

According to Spanish daily El Confidencial Digital, unnamed military sources have warned that the Eurofighter Typhoon air fleet is crippled by breakdowns, lack of spare parts and delayed inspections.

The claims come just a day after Spain announced plans to pump €10 billion ($12.7 billion) into new defence programs after six years of cutbacks as a result of the economic crisis.

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Germany is not really in any better position.

I worry NATO is America and just America.

Russia Warns NATO Away From Arctic Involvement

There were no emerging problems in Arctic that require NATO involvement and, “moreover, there are no problems there which demand military decisions,” Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said in a foreign policy lecture on Monday.

“We firmly believe that there are no problems in the Arctic which demand NATO participation,” he said according to a report in the ITAR TASS news agency.

“The Arctic is a territory of dialogue… We use this slogan for regular forums in Russia, and the work of the Arctic Council, to a large extent, is drawn up in this way.”

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However, despite Lavrov’s comments, Russia is currently reestablishing a robust military presence in the Arctic.

Russia has reactivate[d] ten bases on its northern border to protect its claims in the region and stood up a new Northern Fleet-Unified Strategic Command earlier this year.

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Ukraine: Back to Simmering the Lyagushka

The ceasefire apparently stipulated everyone stayed in place. Therefore, the LNR, DNR, Russians and Ukrainians are supposed to stay where they are. However, there are clashes across the front lines. Most notably near Mariupol: Vice News had a dramatic declaration of the ceasefire being over. That remains to be seen.

Poroshenko has claimed NATO will be providing weapons and advisers. It has been disavowed in public, but I have to wonder.  ATGMs and MANPADS would be easy.  Training Ukrainian infantry would be doubly easy.  Transferring xSoviet tanks and other armored fighting vehicles would be the next step up.  Training them in effective armored warfare would be exactly what ought to be done (and relatively easily) during Rapid Trident with NATO.  Just extend it or some of the soldiers stay on.  

Poroshenko visited Mariupol and claimed he would not give up any territory of Ukraine.

The leader of the DNR made a weird statement which claimed the DNR & LNR would never be a part of Ukraine again, but what made it weird was he also stated he was not going to let new oligarchs come in from Russia either just to replace the ones just chased out.  Some have interpreted this as a declaration of independence from Russia, too.   What?  Water getting hot for you, too?

The EU pushed through their sanctions, but they have officially delayed implementing them contingent on what happens in the Donbass.

There are reports of Little Green Men in Moldova.  

Russia has an Estonian counterintel officer: there are varying reports whether he was kidnapped from Estonian territory or not.

We shall see.

Ukraine: Fire Turned Down While More Wood is Brought?

Today began a ceasefire. It supposed to blanket the entire Donbass. There are already reports of violations, but they are merely reports rather than a whole sale breakdown. The three areas I have heard about are an armoured attack by the rebels/Russians in Vesela Hora and shelling in Shchastya and in Donetsk.

Poroshenko has stated he does not believe the ceasefire will hold. The rebels attempted to hold a press conference in Moscow stating the Ukrainians had violated the ceasefire BEFORE it even started.

There are reports of Russian troops are moving up to the border of Crimea and the Ukrainian mainland. Russian engineers are repairing the tarmac of the Lugansk airport.

Russia is also threatening to send in another humanitarian convoy. Interestingly, at least one of the men from the first convoy was buried in Russia for having "died on vacation."

Reports are the Russians suffering very significant

European enacted the sanctions, targeting the financial and energy industries as well as for specific people.  Russia's bond market is suffering more.

There have been conflicting reports as to what Poroshenko was promised by NATO.

The question now becomes what happens during and after the ceasefire. If it holds, are we going to see both sides rearm and reposition themselves for another round of fighting? Will the Russians come in and place peacekeepers in the Donbass, effectively making this a frozen conflict? Or will the West do for Ukraine what it did for Croatia?

We'll wait and see.

Ukraine: Did the Frog Hop Out? Or did Mariupol Become the Latest Addition to the Frog Stew?

The Ukrainian army has been in full retreat. There's almost no good way to put this, but they seriously bugged out from large parts of the east. Shyrokyne seems to have been abandoned. Anything south of Kurakhove to Mariupol seems to have been emptied out of Ukrainian troops. In the northern portion of the Donetsk Oblast, Debaltseve has been abandoned. In the Lugansk Oblast, they abandoned Starobilsk.

The Ukrainians still hold the Donetsk airport and captured 7 more Russian troops today. They are still fihting on the outskirts of Donetsk from the west. However, they may change.

There is a rumor two battalions of tanks and around a brigade of infantry are to attack Mariupol by tomorrow. The defenses around Mariupol are thinner than thin.

Supposedly, there will be a ceasefire tomorrow. Both sides have stated this. However, last time the ceasefire was decidedly one sided.  We will see if this is another rouse.

Poroshenko met with the West today at the NATO Summit in the UK.  

NATO has stated they will start providing weapons to Ukraine, not just nonlethal aid.  One would hope this would start with ATGMs and MANPADs.  I'd dream of Poland and the other xWarsaw Pact nations providing tanks and whatnot for free: Poland has 350 T-72s, 135 GRad and something on the order of nearly 1000 BMP-1s.  There are plenty of others left in warehouses elsewhere.  That alone would make up 4 brigades of tanks, 12 brigades of motorized infantry and some artillery.  I am sure the germans have a large number as do the Hungarians, the Czechs, the Romanians, etc.

On a personal note, three are out.  Two are not. 

More on Finland, Sweden Joining NATO

SWEDEN and Finland stopped being neutral years ago. They both participate in NATO exercises, commit troops to its rapid-reaction force, took part in peacekeeping operations in Bosnia and Kosovo, joined the fight in Afghanistan and, in the case of Sweden, even got involved in the 2011 air war in Libya.

The two Nordic countries are thus more willing participants in the transatlantic alliance than several full members (Germany refused to have anything to do with Libya). Yet they do not enjoy the biggest benefits of NATO: a seat at the decision-making table and the protection afforded by Article 5, the clause that defines an attack on one as an attack on all. This did not matter much when Russia was a “partner” and neutrality, or rather non-alignment, was a badge of national identity. But Vladimir Putin’s aggression towards Ukraine is forcing a reassessment.

This is especially true in Finland, once part of the Russian empire. Alexander Stubb, who is about to take over as prime minister, made clear his wish to push for NATO membership with the aim of “maximising Finland’s national security”. He was elected this week as leader of the conservative Kokoomus party, succeeding Jyrki Katainen, who is moving to the European Commission. Nothing will happen immediately, as the current five-party coalition excludes moves towards NATO. But Mr Stubb said the country needed a “comprehensive debate” after next April’s general election and, if he wins, he seems determined to lead it.

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Ukraine: Not Yet Conquered

 

The battles for the East are continuing.  It appears the Pro Russian groups have been completely ousted in Kharkov: 70 arrests were made.  However, that is not the case in Lugansk and Donetsk.  In Lugansk, the pro russian forces have taken hostages (most have been freed).  These guys are starting to cross into the terrorist category.

I suspect that with Kharkov cleared, the next city to be is Lugansk.  Donetsk is the hardest of the lot with so many having shown up in support of the 'People's Republic of Donetsk': I've seen claims of up to two thousand.  The picture above is from the admin building the pro russian folks have barricaded themselves in.  Earlier in the day, a human chain of women - babuschkas really - 'blocked' access until the barricade was in place. 

Timoshenko has arrived in Donetsk.  I am sure this will completely help the situation.  Good grief.  That woman is poison.

 Everyone in the West is stating the Russians are behind the latest attempts at seizing the east's admin buildings and whatnot.  US Secretary of State Kerry even called it a pretext for an invasion.

There was a fight in the Rada in Kiev.  The communist rep Symonenko running for president who is actually from Donetsk accused government in Kiev of playing into Russia's hands by removing the "protestors" in the east.  One of the Right Sector twits attacked him.  Whether he's right or a Russian puppet, fist fights in the Rada?  Really?

The US has moved another Burke class destroyer into the Black Sea officially in support of Ukraine.  NATO is increasing troops and planes on the border of Ukraine.  (C'mon Obama, just say '173rd')

NATO is apparently supplying Ukraine with nonweapon supplies for its military.  Fuel, trucks, food, etc.  This may make a difference.  You can't convert over an entire army in a month to new weapons, but trucks can definitely help.  They need to supply ATGMs and SAMs for the Ukrainian soldiers next.  That will make another difference.

There is a rumor (of course there is!) the pro Russian forces are supposed to make a lot of blood shed tonight to provide the pretext for Russia's intervention.  We'll see.

The EU, America, Russia and Ukraine were supposed to meet over the crisis.  I suspect Russia will obstruct or obfuscate and delay.  

Russia, btw, was forced to cancel a bond sale.  No one wanted to buy at the prices they wanted to offer.  The market DOES care what Russia is up to.

Ukraine on a Boil: Lance it or get out of the pot!

Lots of rumors.  Few facts other than what has been happening in the east.

The east.  Least start there.  The Pro Russian groups moved again in Kharkov, Lugansk, Mykolaiv and Donetsk.  They took over a number of buildings and subsequently forced out of most of those.  While they had control of the buildings they declared independent republics for the different cities.  They called for referendums and for Russia to intervene. 

The Russians seem to have begun painting some peace keeping slogans on tanks.  

The Russians have also warned Ukraine NOT to use force against the pro russian forces. 

Related, the US has released pix of the build up of tanks, etc near the border near Rostov-on-Don.  Its impressive.

The Ukrainian military is working on rearming and in the process becoming NATO compatible.  They are NOT joining NATO any time soon though.

more later if I have time.

Finland, Sweden Considering Joining NATO Because of Crimea?

When Russian warplanes staged a mock bombing run on Sweden last year, air defences were caught napping. It was the middle of the night and no Swedish planes were scrambled.

Instead, Danish jets belonging to NATO's Baltic mission based in Lithuania, took to the air to shadow the Russians.

The discussion that incident triggered over Sweden's ability to defend itself has grown with Russia's seizure of Crimea from Ukraine. As in neighbour and fellow EU member Finland, Swedes wonder whether to seek shelter in the U.S.-led NATO alliance, abandoning Stockholm's two centuries of formal neutrality.

Sweden has talked of a "doctrinal shift" in defence policy. In Helsinki, where "Finlandisation" became a Cold War byword for self-imposed neutrality driven by fear of a powerful neighbour, the government has talked of an "open debate" on joining NATO.

Talk of NATO underscores anxieties that feed calls for more defence cooperation and spending. But membership seems distant, with voters in both countries sceptical of the benefits, and wary of the costs of taking on new international commitments.

Both nations have a history of dealing with Moscow in their own particular ways. Sweden's loss of Finland to Russia in the time of Napoleon prompted it to give up on war and armed pacts.

Finland, which won independence during Russia's revolution of 1917 but nearly lost it fighting the Soviet Union in World War Two, kept close to the West economically and politically during the Cold War but avoided confrontation with Moscow.

Like Sweden, it joined the European Union only in 1995.

For all the scepticism about NATO, however, worries have been growing in Scandinavia since Russia's action in Crimea.

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Is the Head of NATO Hinting at a European Union Military?

NATO head Anders Fogh Rasmussen hopes EU leaders will commit to new military capabilities and cooperation at this week's summit, with a strong Europe in everyone's interest.

"We need a Europe that is committed to security, we need a Europe that is outward looking and taking on a global perspective," Rasmussen told AFP in an interview.

The 28 European Union leaders meet Thursday and Friday in the first summit dedicated to defence since 2008, trying to balance tight budgets against the ever rising cost of military hardware.

It is expected they will agree to invest in drones and air-to-air refuelling, key assets which the NATO-led Libya campaign of 2011 showed were lacking in Europe's arsenal and forced it to rely on the United States at key points in the conflict.

"We need a stronger Europe -- a stronger Europe also means a stronger NATO," Rasmussen said.

The economic crisis, he conceded, was a major concern but it was also an opportunity to promote cooperation, the 'pooling and sharing' meant to ease the defence burden.

"It will be increasingly difficult for European nations to purchase advanced expensive military equipment in the future on their own," he said.

"If they pool and share resources, if they go for joint efforts ... if we do it together, then we can acquire these military capabilities," secretary general Rasmussen said.

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T-Loramids: Turkeys Curious Walk With Missile Contract to Chinese Company

Turkey has been negotiating with a Chinese firm, the China Precision Machinery Import-Export Corporation (CPMIEC), to co-produce a $3.44 billion long-range air and anti-missile defense system. This has not only strained Ankara’s relations with Washington, but also raised the question of whether the deal indicates an ideological or geopolitical shift in Turkey’s foreign policy and security aims. Although the Chinese option may indeed result in political repercussions for Turkey’s relations with the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the decision itself was not motivated by ideological or geopolitical concerns. Rather, Turkey’s negotiations with Chinese defense contractors represent a purely instrumental and strategic decision for an aspiring regional power that has been seeking to bolster its own national defense industry since 1985.

Tension mounted between Turkey and the Transatlantic security community when Murad Bayar, Turkey’s undersecretary for the defense industry (SSM), announced on September 26 that Turkey had short-listed China’s FD-2000/HQ-9 surface-to-air missile (SAM) system to meet its six-year air defense project, titled T-Loramids. Turkey’s decision to start “contract negotiations” to purchase critical high-tech defense equipment from China created quite a surprise and discontent in the West, especially because in early 2013 Turkey received six NATO Patriot Missile batteries from the US, Germany and the Netherlands to help defend itself against possible missile attacks from Syria. Indeed, US and NATO officials have expressed “serious concern” over Turkey short-listing the Chinese company, emphasizing that the Chinese missile defense system would not be interoperable and compatible with NATO’s collective defense capabilities. Washington is also apparently displeased by the fact that the tender was awarded to a Chinese company under US sanctions for violating the embargo on defense technology exports to Iran, North Korea and Syria.

In an effort to reassure Turkey’s allies, SSM Bayar, who in his position is responsible for his country’s defense procurement, held a press conference on October 3. Bayar stressed that “full integration with NATO assets was an explicit condition in the contract for the planned air defense system,” and that “as part of this program, a Turkish defense company will be tasked with integrating the missile defense system into a network operated by the Turkish Air Force.” Thus, Turkey hopes the interoperability issue with Alliance assets will be settled.

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The question becomes....  

Is this a ploy to get the West to hand over more technology for the local industry?  Look!  You need to hurry or look what I'll do!  

Or is it a genuine shift? 

I'd be very, very shocked if the NATO allies, especially we Americans, allowed a Chinese system to be plugged into our defense network...

A Win for Moscow: Ukraine Gives up Bid to Join NATO

Ukraine has given up its bid to join NATO but will continue to pursue greater collaboration on security matters with the alliance, Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Wednesday.

The nation of 45 million people, which gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1990, applied for membership in NATO five years ago. It has participated in NATO-led military exercises and in operations such as the intervention in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the naval anti-piracy patrols off the Somali coast. Ukraine also has contributed a medical team to the NATO-led international force in Afghanistan.

But the effort to join the alliance has sparked strong opposition from neighboring Russia, Ukraine’s main trading partner, which has ramped up the pressure on Kiev in recent months. Moscow has long opposed NATO’s plans to expand eastward to include other nations of the former Soviet Union.

“As you know, the current Ukrainian leadership has decided to pursue what is called a non-bloc policy; they have decided not to pursue NATO membership,” Rasmussen said. “It’s their decision, we fully respect that, but at the same time, Ukraine has decided to continue cooperation with NATO within the NATO-Ukraine Commission.”

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Russia Proposes New Security Pact to Defang NATO

...but the West isn't buying it!

"We don't need a new structure. We have many at our disposal -- U.N., EU, OSCE, Council of Europe. We have the principles, we have the structures, let's strengthen them," French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner told reporters.

The ministerial meeting of the OSCE grouping European nations, the United States and Canada, took place against a backdrop of tension between the West and Russia over Georgia.

Moscow, for its part, is concerned at NATO expansion, possibly into former Soviet territory and U.S. plans for a missile shield in central Europe.

[...]

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has said Cold War-era institutions like NATO are unable to ease friction in a multipolar world. "Security can be either common or illusory," his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said last week.

Medvedev's proposed Treaty on European Security would grant equal status to participating countries, rule out military alliances adopting policies detrimental to the security of the other parties, and deny any country or alliance the right to maintain peace and stability on the continent.

That last sounds exactly like a way to try to dismantle NATO. huh. No wonder they aren't biting. Oh, the OSCE and Russia haven't had a terribly good time with one another either over Georgia.