Anatolian Population Initiated its own Agricultural, did not Import From Fertile Crescent?

Small scale agricultural farming was first initiated by indigenous communities living on Turkey's Anatolian plateau, and not introduced by migrant farmers as previously thought, according to new research by the University of Liverpool.

Professor Douglas Baird and his team discovered the presence of carbonised seeds and phytoliths of wheat chaff at Boncuklu, along with agricultural weeds commonly found in early farming sites, suggesting the cultivation of crops did take place.

Additionally, nitrogen isotopes from sheep and goat bone collagen indicate very small scale experimentation with the herding of these animals.

Analysis of stone tools and ancient DNA suggests an indigenous population, rather than migrants from earlier agricultural communities within the Fertile Crescent.

link.

Turkey Moved More Troops Into Qatar

The slow build-up of Turkish soldiers in Qatar has continued, despite their withdrawal being one of the demands that Saudi Arabia and its allies have insisted Doha complies with before they lift their blockade of the emirate.

The Qatari ministry of defence (MoD) announced on 11 July that a fifth instalment of Turkish soldiers had arrived in Doha to join their comrades at the Tariq bin Zayid Battalion base, under the provisions of the military co-operation agreement signed by the two countries. The ministry released photographs showing Turkish troops disembarking from a Qatar Emiri Air Force (QEAF) C-130J-30 transport aircraft.

The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) did not confirm the statement, but Turkish newspapers reported on the following day that that a 45-strong commando unit affiliated to the Istanbul-based 1st Army Command had arrived in Doha. The Dogan News Agency (DHA) reported that another contingent of about 25 soldiers from an artillery unit would arrive in Qatar between 16 and 19 July with T-155 Fırtına self-propelled howitzers.

link.

Turkey may Build Aircraft Carrier?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has stressed the significance of the defense industry, saying that Turkey will soon start producing an aircraft carrier after an Anatolian ship, which is a sub type of amphibious vehicle.

Erdoğan's remarks were made in his speech at a launching ceremony of the Istanbul Naval Shipyard.

"There isn't any obstacle to producing our own aircraft carrier. It is possible with this determined government and state," said Erdoğan.

link.

Pakistan in Talks to buy Turkish T-129 Attack Helicopters

Newly-appointed Turkish Defense Minister Fikri Isik and Pakistani counterpart Khawaja Muhammad Asif met Friday in Islamabad to discuss bilateral defense cooperation.

"One of the most important issues between [the two countries] is a deal for T129 attack helicopters," Isik said at a joint press conference held after the meeting.

The deal for the sale of the T129s -- a multi-role attack helicopter co-developed by Turkish Aerospace Industries -- will "further enhance our bilateral cooperation in the defense industry," Isik asserted.

link.

Turkey Planning Space Agency

Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Turkey will formally launch the Turkish Space Agency within the next three months.

The agency will be tasked with coordinating all of Turkey’s space and aerospace programs and will be located in Kazan, a township near Ankara.

A procurement official familiar with the effort said the space agency's basic work will concentrate on satellite technology, satellite launching systems, space stations and deep space research.

Ankara has drafted a will for the Turkish Space Agency that will head to the cabinet for approval before being debated by Parliament.

link.

Russia's Most Syrian Adventure #76: All Done There?

The big news is that Putin has ordered many of the Russian troops out of Syria. There are a couple different stories as to why floating around. There is probably some overlap in reality, but the main driving reason is that Putin feels his mission was a success: Syria, more specifically Assad, will not be falling any time soon. Putin can declare victory and go home.

Other narratives to go with this were that Russia was hurting too much financially to continue and there is some sort of break with Assad. The break is possibly because Assad wanted to retake all of Syria. Russia didn't want to expend more capital it seems (either geopolitical or financial) for this to happen. The ceasefire makes it too dangerous for the narrative for Putin to allow the assault to continue. The finances are well known, but Russia had been using their training budget for operations in Syria. As has been said, in Soviet Russia, wars train for you. The limits of that may have been reached. Russia has even cut its defense budget: something Putin has been loathe to do.

That said, here is the plethora of links for the story at hand.

Foxtrot Alpha.

USNI News with an analysis by the same site.

The Aviationist (with video of what is supposed to be the first aircraft leaving).

Even with the withdrawal, the Russians are still supporting Assad and his attempt to take Palmyra with airstrikes.

The Russians are also accusing Turkey of having ground troops within Syria and conducting artillery strikes on the Kurds. The former is dubious, but the latter is highly likely.

The ceasefire has held, mostly, at least as well as the Ukrainian one.

I can say though Putin will be able to claim a victory.  He got in, did what he said he would to his ally, won a diplomatic coupe and then is withdrawing with minimal blood shed: Russian blood that is.  As far as we can tell.  Those predicting a quagmire were rather wrong.  Those predicting the Russian military breaking down were also wrong.  I was somewhat wrong at least because while there were Russian ground troops, there was not, afaik, major offensives led by the Russians.

It goes to show just how dangerous Putin's Russia is, folks.

Russia's Most Syrian Adventure #74

A deal was reached between the US and Russia for a ceasefire in Syria.  It would mean the Syrian rebels, Assadites, Russians and coalition members would not attack one another.  It would exclude Nusra and IS/Daesh.  The ceasefire is supposed to start on Saturday.

The Russians have vowed to make sure Damascus observes the ceasefire.  Assad claims to have accepted the ceasefire.  I'll believe it when I see it.

The rebels are pretty downbeat about the ceasefire actually taking place.  

This is understandable.  The Kurdish faction, the one called terrorists by the Turks and a division in the Assadite army by the Assadites, has been in bitter fighting against the Syrian rebels in Aleppo.  

Furthermore, some circles are stating there is a loophole.  Anyone with contacts with Nusra or any other banned group is still considered fair game.  One of the sources stated most rebel factions have some sort of connection, even if just for local truces to get civilians out, and the Russians may use this as an excuse to continue their bombardment and effectively do the same 'ceasefire' as in Ukraine.

The US has a 'Plan B' if the ceasefire fails.

More than 270,000 Syrians have died in the war to date.

The Saudis are indicating they want to arm the rebels with MANPADS.  This could get messy.

Russia's Most Syrian Adventure #73

The US and Russia are holding talks in Geneva over a potential ceasefire in Syria. A broader peace conference followed. Those peace talks were a dead end though and will not continue next week. The Russians have stated the talks are further delayed.  (BIG SURPRISE!)

France has stated the ceasefire must have begun yesterday, including the Russians (but, yeah, right).  The EU has come out and said pretty much the same thing.

The Syria rebels have stated they are open to a provisional ceasefire, but slam Russia because it will continue to support Assad with its air campaign.

The Russians called an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. France rejected Russia's proposed UN resolution. The Russian push failed.  The US said this was just an distraction by the Russians, intentional one at that, from the peace talks.

In more obfuscation, the Russians are warning Assad not to try to take back all of Syria.

There was a bombing in Ankara, Turkey. A Kurdish group claimed responsibility. A Kurdish group killed 3 Turkish security troops. Obama called Turkey's President over the Kurdish attacks asking for restraint and Turkey stated it is saddened by the US alliance with the Kurdish groups.

A Kurdish force with allies and US airstrike support have retaken a city from IS/Daesh.

The Saudis are stating the rebels ought to armed with MANPADS surface to air missiles.

Russia's Most Syrian Adventure #72

Russia has stated the success of the ceasefire is entirely up to the US to make happen.  heh.  Classic Russian Move.  The Russians and Americans will meet next week for peace talks for Syria.  In a weird twist, the Russians are warning Assad not to flout the ceasefire.  Uh, Russia, you are, too.  Russia says it hopes to have a ceasefire agreement by friday (tomorrow).

The Russians have been confirmed as shadowing German Tornadoes on recon missions, but to date have been professional about it.

The US has formally asked Russia NOT to bomb its special forces in Syria.

Is Russian arming Hezbollah?

The Kurdish advance is causing problems between the US and Turkey.  For one, Turkey has made it plain they have NO intention of stopping the artillery bombardment of the Kurds.  The Russians blast the Turks for the strikes on the Kurds.

Merkel repeated her calls for a no-fly zone in Syria.  It's more complicated than I think she realizes.  Who could force the Russians to stop without starting a war?

Have we witnessed a 'Munich Moment?'

Watch a Russian news crew's  drone film a GRAD rocket launcher help pound a Syrian town.

Russia's Most Syrian Adventure #70 Mini Update: Saudis Deploy Fighters to Turkish Airbase

The Royal Saudi Arabian Air Force has deployed fighter jets to Incirlik air base in Turkey, a day after the NATO anti-Islamic State coalition meeting in Brussels.

Brigadier General Ahmed Al-Assiri, consultant to Saudi Minister of Defense Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, confirmed to Saudi-owned news station Al-Arabiya the arrival of Saudi Air Force jets at the Turkish airbase.

"Our jet fighters and crews have been deployed to the Incirlik Airbase," he said. "We have deployed them as part of the international coalition led by Washington," he added.

Assiri also confirmed the kingdom's readiness to enter ground operations in Syria but to this point no Saudi Special Operations Forces have been deployed to Turkey.

"The Saudi deployment is only limited to air force personnel at this point," he said.

link.

Russia's Most Syrian Adventure #69

It appears everything is about to spiral out of control. I'd LOVE to be wrong about that, but so many things are coming together in the worse possible way. To be sure, for the civilians on the ground, this has been out of control for a long time and its dumbass commentators like me that use euphemisms that down play the tragedy and devastation. Even so, it appears things are going to get worse. If this stays on course, this will be the 30 Years War for the Middle East.

The Turks have stated they and the Saudis may invade Syria now. For that matter, the Kurdish faction supported by the Russians is now being shelled by the Turks in the airbase they just captured.  

The Saudis are stating Assad will not stay in power.  dun dundun!

The Assadite Syrian Army is moving in on Raqqa, the IS/Daesh strong hold.

Assad has vowed to take back the entire country and will not stop until he does.

Russia has dispatched a new corvette armed with the long range cruise missiles to the Med to support Assad.

The Russians are stating a ceasefire will most likely fail now: this is happening as the Assadite army continues to make gains.  Despite the major powers agreeing there would be ceasefire on friday, the Russians continued their bombing and the Assadites continued fighting.  Furthermore, the Russians have stated cooperation with the US is vital in Syria.  This is classically Russian: talk, speak empty words, get the West to try to compromise and then do whatever they want.

Secretary Kerry continued to state the Russians had to stop targeting the rebels and needed to focus on Daesh/IS. This will not happen, Mr Secretary. I'm sorry.

The French have also called on Russia to stop targeting civilians.

The West conducted 20 air strikes on friday against Daesh/IS forces.  Keep in mind the 'weak' Russians have kept a temp of at least 70 per day just in Syria, not Syria and Iraq like the West.

Russia's Most Syria Adventure #67

Turkey calls Russia's claims of Turkish plans to invade Syria propaganda.  They also state Russia is not being allowed to do the Open Skies flight due to security concerns.  Erdogan went as far as to call the Russian claims of the coming Turkish invasion 'laughable.'

Russia has stated they expect an international reaction to Turkey's denial of the Open Skies flight.

Russia's Most Syrian Adventure #66

The peace talks have collapsed.  It appears a reason was that the Russians and Assadites are attacking the rebels and not just Daesh.  This is classically Russian: talk and be amiable and then keep on doing what you're going to do.  The US has called for the halt on Russian strikes.  Russia's not going to listen.

The Iranians want the talks to resume and want fighting against Nusra and Daesh to be excluded from a ceasefire.  I don't think any would have a real problem with that except if the Russians et al just claimed all the rebels were Nusra and/or Daesh as they have done in propaganda broadcasts.

The Russian airstrikes around Aleppo have killed around 21 civilians.  The Syrian army expects to have Aleppo completely encircled shortly.  Some 40,000 civilians have fled Aleppo.

The Russo-Turkish stand off is getting worse.  The Turks denied the Russians a flight allowed under international treaty.  The Russians have turned around and claimed the Turks are preparing to invade Syria.  They say the Turks want to hide the preparations and that is the reason for the flight denial.  The Turks have claimed the Russians have committed war crimes and called on the US et al to take a stronger stand against Russia and its participation in Syria.

Russia's Most Syrian Adventure #65

Much has happened.  It appears the Assadites are winning.  They have supposedly relieved the siege of the Shiite towns of Nubul and Zahraa, taken other towns and cut off the rebel supply lines from Aleppo.  The only place where the rebels seem to be doing even ok is against IS/Daesh.  

Russian troops have been shuffled hither and yon, with various Russians geolocating themselves, on purpose or inadvertently, through the Russian social media site VK.  The Russian air force is conducting just under 200 airstrikes per day.

Russia has deployed its latest Su-35S variant to Syria.  This is the most modern fighter the Russians have short of the in development PAK-FA.  Russia has no reason, as far as they are concerned, to stop their air strikes in Syria.

The British are claiming the Russians are trying to carve out a mini state for Assad in Syria.  However, given the recent advances, it might not just be a mini state, but trying to help him retake the entire country.

The Russians had planned to do a treaty allowed inspection flight over Turkey.  This flight has been banned by Ankara and the Russians are angry.

Making things even more complicated, the Turks apparently shelled across the border into Syria.

The peace talks seem to be in jeopardy.  The opposition pulled out of meetings yesterday.  The Russians have stated there's no real progress on declaring what entities are valid terrorist targets or not.  The Russians are supportive of hardliners attending the talks.  And the UN is warning that everything that can be done, should be done to save the talks.

Russia's Most Syrian Adventure #64

Another Russian fighter bomber has violated Turkish airspace. This time is was an Su-34. Turkey summoned the Russian ambassador and threatened to down the next plane that crossed the border again. NATO even growled.

This whole week, Russia has been making accusations against the Turks via the Russian media. The Russian government has not been making any comment on the reports, but in Putin's Russia, there is no independent media. Amongst the accusations were that a Turkish citizen who is claimed to have shot the Russian pilot was in Istanbul and the terrorist that blew up the Metrojet is hiding in Turkey as well.

A Russian air raid appears to have killed 10 civilians.

Multiple sources from Europe are despairing about the Syrian conflict.  The Russians and Assadites are making progress against the rebels and some in Europe are saying the West has acquiesced to Assad winning. 

The Kurdish Democratic Union Party was excluded from the Syrian peace talks and have left.  Turkey had demanded this happen or they would walk.  Comments by the Russians don't give me hope for the talks in Geneva accomplishing much.  On the other hand, the opposition claims to want to make peace.  If the Assadites really are winning, I can see why.  But!  If they are winning, the rebels are not likely to get peace.

Egypt has still not made any arrests for the bombing of the Russian Metrojet.

Stealth Saga #24

TFX:

Turkish Aerospace Industries expects the TFX contract to be signed within the first half of 2016.

KF-X:

The program has been officially kicked off and is planning on 2/3s local content.

PAK-FA:

The PAK-FA performed at the Bahrain air show and the final prototype is being assembled.   Note: prototype, not first production example.

PAK-DA:

The Russians are claiming they will be building the first prototype of the PAK-DA stealth bomber before 2021.  However, I'd caution that the Russians have an economy that is melting down and they have already significantly postponed the purchase of the PAK-FA, the MiG-31 replacement and several other aerospace projects.  The PAK-DA may only get built, if ever, in the far future, not in 5 years.  The link is to a Russian website, but the text is in spanish.  (wuh?)  

LRS-B/B-3:

Rumor has it the image here is not far off for what the two LRS-B prototypes actually looked like.

The second rumor is the Northrop prototype nearly crashed during testing.

F-22:

A little more about the F-22s now deployed to Japan.

F-35:

The F-35 has fired the AIM-9X Sidewinder for the first time.

Denmark is facing a significant budget issue over replacing its F-16s: the F-35 is one of the contenders.

The top Pentagon weapons tester is concerned about the F-35 avionics software.

Turkey Wants to Develop, Launch Indigenous Satellite by 2019

After having spent more than $1 billion on satellite programs, the Turks have decided that it is time to spend their resources on local industrial efforts.

They will, however, be prepared to buy foreign know-how in order to build the country’s first indigenous satellite. One senior procurement official said the target date to launch the first Turkish satellite is 2019.

“There may be delays … but the idea to build an overall Turkish satellite will not be reviewed,” the procurement official said.

He said that for the Turkish government the critical criteria to make the satellite was “software, design and platform.”

link.

Proposals for Istanbul's new Air Traffic Control Tower

link.

Turkey Gets Into the UCAV Business

Russia's Most Syrian Adventure #56

It appears Russia is using an airbase in Iran.

Russia has hit another 212 targets in the last 24 hours. 

Putin has stated there's no chance of improving ties with Turkey. 

With his classic ambiguity, Putin declared he's unsure whether Russia needs a permanent base in Syria.  Just like there were no Russian troops in Ukraine.  Oh, wait.

He has also made it clear no outside force should decide whether Assad stays or goes.

Putin also claimed to be backing the Free Syrian Army against IS.  The FSA claims this is false.

The Saudis put together a coalition.  Its purpose is a little unclear.  Officially, it is to fight terrorism.  Pakistan has called it an Islamic military alliance and confirmed it is a participant.  Putin doesn't see the alliance as hostile.

Lavrov and Kerry apparently continue to consult over Syria.  There have been rumors Kerry may be conceding on Assad staying in power.