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Showing posts with the label Transfer Window

Finding value in the new arrivals

I didn't plan to write a full post on the transfer window dealings as, well, they tend to be pretty boring. Aside from a few select writers, most of them simply cut and past snippets from Wikipedia and combine them with some vague knowledge of players from Football Manager before declaring the player a "hit" or "miss" or some other awful measure of success failure (Ferguson/Moyes, Anyone/Heskey etc). As you can sense though, there's a however coming. My own team's value is so low that I'm seriously hamstrung compared to many other managers and thus the onus is on me to find new value. If you're swimming in cash and/or sat pretty in your mini league I probably wouldn't get too involved in the new arrivals, at least until we've seen them in action for a month or so. But, if you're desperate like your humble blogger, cast your miserable gaze over this somewhat sorry list of alternatives (apologies for the random order, the below list ...

Going streaking

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Whether you're lucky enough to still have your original wildcard stashed away in your back pocket or not, as we approach the second wildcard window, it's worthwhile putting together a transfer plan to best exploit the fixtures on offer. We have at least four transfers before then (GW16-19) followed by the important period right after we play the wildcard, so with that in mind, let's try and identify a few fixture streaks during which we might want to target specific players. For simplicity I've only looked at streaks of four gameweeks here. In reality we might want to dig deeper into streaks where you like three out of four games, or four out of six, but this is the starting point, for better or worse. Double gameweeks will also likely cause chaos at some point too, but without knowing where or when they'll strike, their impact is ignored for now. The below table shows the expected goal total over the four highlighted games above or (below) the team average. So...

Deadline disappointment

I don't know when the exact point in which I lost interest in the transfer deadline day happened, but I am painfully aware that it did. I used to be glued to Sky Sports News, excitedly dreaming of the next big arrival from overseas, rapidly googling names and checking Football Manager for a quick scouting report. Now I am aware that essentially, with the odd exception, all transfers/rumours fall into one of three categories: A big name player is linked with a club in England, is 'spotted' at various training grounds across the country despite never being available (this year's examples include Kaka, Hazard and even Messi) A player gets recycled between unimaginative teams whose scouting department appears to consist of a 16 year kid watching the Premier League highlights and recommending whoever scored that week or was good 5 years ago (examples include Crouch, Jenas, Parker, Wright-Phillips and Bellamy) A player of genuine quality arrives or moves to a better situ...

Fans' Word Clouds

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With Torres' disappointing comments as he left for a ' top level club ' ringing in their ears, the mood of the Liverpool fans seems to that of genuine hurt and defiance. There will be a lot of chest beating about how the club is bigger than any player but make no mistake, this one hurt. Newcastle fans seemed more disappointed but accepting, and the majority were quick to point to the money they received as a silver lining. I'm not sure what the story is here: loyalty is dead in football, or that we're crazy to expect any (after all Torres is not exactly a local lad). I'm sure the blogs will all have their say tomorrow, but for now, I'll leave it to the fans: Fans feel the club is bigger than any player Money is talking for the Magpies

Transfer Window Analysis

There was a flurry of activity towards the end of the transfer window which should have some fantasy impact, even if we didn't see any real big names arriving from overseas or switching EPL allegiances. In some ways this is no bad thing as top rated prospects will be valued as such (see David Silva) and you cannot afford to take a punt with 9m. For a lesser known player though, that 5.0m or 6.0m investment might prove to be fruitful down the road. A note of caution though: I would rarely, if ever, pick up a player for a new club before he has at least played two or three games. Their fitness, communication skills, adaptability and role at their new club are all uncertain at this point and it is needlessly risky to waste a transfer and money on a player that might not even feature for a month. Alexander Hleb - Birmingham Probably the most widely known in EPL circles of the players arriving late in the window, I think Hleb is a giant coup for Birmingham and might de...

Transfer Day Deadline Deals

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No huge deals happened but a couple of lower profile trades could have significant fantasy impact: Michael Turner (4.5) Turner has joined Sunderland in a 6.5m deal which certainly has some fantasy value. Turner led all defenders with 4 goals last year and now he the chance at some clean sheets he looks to be good value. Ferdinand and Bardsley can be had for the same price but Turner's attacking ability and bonus point potential make him excellent value and possibly the biggest winner in the window's final dealings. Niko Kranjcar (6.9) I am a big fan of Kranjcar's ability and his 2m deal to Spurs comes at the right time with Modric out with a fractured le g . At 6.9m he was overvalued at Pompey but playing opposite Lennon and alongside Huddlestone and Palacios should breath life back into the Croatian's career. The natural replacement for Modric is Lennon (7.8) but for those wanting to save a bit of cash, Kranjcar looks like a great bet at 6.9. In the long term (when M...

Transfer Market

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A few interesting transfers have gone through in the past day or so and so lets have a quick look at the potential fantasy impact: Sanli Tuncay Tuncay was okay last year for Boro (7 goals, 4 assists) and looks like a decent capture for Stoke who are lacking firepower up front. He is a bit of a poor man's Tevez though, and like the Argentinian is a better real life player than fantasy asset. If added for 6m he could provide value but I think 7m is more likely and hence he would be overpriced. Sylvain Distin Distin has moved from a very poor defensive side to one that is underachieving but has potential to improve with his arrival. At 4.9m Distin looks like good value and is significantly cheaper than teammates Baines (6.3), Jagielka (5.9) and Yobo (5.9). Everton have a great fixture list and don't play a red light game until week 13 when they go to Old Trafford. Distin therefore looks like a great buy and could get off to a good start this week with a decent fixture against Wiga...

Transfer Window Fantasy Impact

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One caveat before I start, you may find similar articles like this around, but rest assured I am not plagiarising, its just that there are limited issues to discuss during bye week. We don't restrict sports writers to one article about the Super Bowl do we! So, anyway, lets look at the transfers/rumours and assess the fantasy impact we might see from the fallout: Jermaine Defoe to Tottenham This one's a done deal and it sees Defoe re-united (again) with Harry Redknapp . I was astounded to read that the little forward notched 64 goals in 177 games whilst at the Lane, especially when considering he was considered third choice behind Keane and Berbatov for most of that time. I am a Defoe owner, and was set to dump him this week until this story started to break. Now I am totally unsure as to what lies in store for Defoe. Spurs have nice attacking fixtures over the next 7 games including 3 green light games. Whether Defoe will play or not depends on any issues with him resigning f...