Thinking The Three Nation Option?

Who would have thought that a rotator cuff (the four muscles that hold your shoulder together, could put someone out of commission for months??? I don't know...but whatever you do...make sure your job has health insurance...otherwise you will be given a bottle of modest pain medication (if you are lucky) and that's about all that will be done for you.

Anyway, I've been reading, even if I havent' been writing. If I have anyone left reading this, then I wanted to post this article from the Jerusalem Post. I wonder if it's time to state the obvious, and put bases in Kurdish areas, maybe in Basrah, and let the Sunni Arabs have their damn war! They seem so determined to throw a fit, and there seems to be nothing that can stop them, except other Sunni Arabs. So, put them in charge and see how long it takes them to get all this out of their system.

I don't know...maybe it's misguided...but I am despairing that the Sunni Clerics are never going to accept that they don't get to be the dictators of Iraq anymore. Can't we just give them over to Jordan? Somehow I think King Hussein would be more able to deal with this....of course he would be more brutal too...but no one would criticize an Arab King for being too brutal...or at least..THAT never seems to happen!!! But if the US does it...it's genocide, crimes against humanity, immoral, illegal, ect...ect...ect.

Time for Kurdistan to be Kurdistan!

Everything that held Iraq together has disintegrated or is morally unsupportable. In this op-ed from the Jerusalem Post, the author argues that the sooner teh Bush Administration accepts the fact that Iraq is no more, the more quickly a long-term solution for the people in the area will be found.

By Shlomo Avineri

August 22, 2005


Despite all the recent frantic attempts at constitution-making, Iraq is not a state anymore. It is difficult for the U.S. government, as well as for the international community, to realize this, but the earlier it sinks in the better the chances for a realistic approach which could give the people in Iraq a chance for a more peaceful future.

Even since Iraq was cobbled together by British imperial dreamers in the 1920s from three very disparate provinces of the old Ottoman Empire the only way to hold it together was by brute force. The British vested power in the Baghdad-based Sunni Arab minority. The Kurdish minority in the north, as well as the Shiite majority in the south, were virtually excluded from power. Consequently, all Iraqi governments were faced with recurring mutinies: by the Kurds, by the Shiites, even by the small Christian Assyrian community.

Saddam Hussein's regime was the most brutal of all of Iraq’s Sunni Arab minority regimes, and this is why Iraq has always long been the most repressive Arab regime.

The end of Saddam Hussein also toppled Sunni Arab minority rule; the current mayhem in Iraq is mainly the work of Sunni Arabs trying to abort any alternative government. The sophistication, logistic precision and overall planning of the terrorist attacks, as well as the apparent availability of hundreds of suicide bombers, cars and explosives all point to a well-prepared campaign based on the human and material resources of Saddam's old regime.

It is obvious that the Kurds, who have enjoyed de facto autonomy since the early 1990s under the protection of the Allied "No Fly Zone," are not going to accept being subjected to Sunni Arab rule. The Kurdish regional government runs a more or less successful system of political authority. For a decade now, schools in the area have taught in Kurdish and not in Arabic, and a de facto arrangement allows the Kurdish authorities to use oil revenue in the area to pay for impressive development projects.

Given their terrible experiences in the past, the Kurds will accept only the kind of federal structure that guarantees them effective control over their own affairs, including maintaining their own armed forces.

Similarly, the Shiites are not going to accept Sunni hegemony any longer, and the brutal terrorist attacks of the Sunni insurgents against Shiite shrines only strengthens their resolve to insist on a Shiite autonomous region in the south, similar to the Kurdish area in the north.

The Sunnis rightly realize that unless they succeed in re-imposing their power by brute force, they are doomed to minority status - something which is alien to the Sunni Arab tradition. Hence the Sunni boycott of the elections and the attempt by Sunni terrorists to frighten any moderate Sunni ready to cooperate in setting up a democratic Iraq.

Constitutional phraseology is not a remedy for these conundrums.

When the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia were on the verge of collapse along ethnic lines, the administration of Bush Senior urged the maintenance of the existing structures: It failed dismally. Iraq may now be going the way of Yugoslavia, yet the U.S. government does not wish to recognize this obvious fact. What is failing in Iraq is not only the attempt to build democracy, but the very attempt to keep the country together.

There is no way of putting Humpty-Dumpty together again. The Kurds and the Shiites will go their separate ways, and both entities have the paramilitary capability to do so. There is no Iraqi army capable of maintaining the unity of the country. And, just as in the former Yugoslavia, the separate countries - Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia - have a better chance of creating coherent and democratic systems than the old coercive Yugoslavia, the same may apply to Iraq.

The U.S. will obviously have to change its policy over Iraq - maybe this is what President George W. Bush is devoting his vacation to. It would be advisable to think outside the box and realize that Iraq is not a country anymore.

This is not the end of the world, but it calls for courageous and creative thinking about alternatives.

The writer is professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.