There Was No Clear Winner In The Vice-Presidential Debate

 

Walz Helps Harris More Than Vance Helps Trump

 

From Axios.com.

Is Elise Stefanik Donald Trump's Secret VP Pick?

Trump says he has already picked his veep candidate, but is keeping it secret. Robert Reich thinks he knows who it is. He writes:

At a recent Fox News town hall, Trump teased about his pick for a running-mate, “I know who it’s going to be” — but he didn’t say. 

Well, I’m pretty certain I know. 

The answer is important, not just because the choice could affect some voters’ decisions in November, but also because (as is the case with Biden) during the course of the next term, the number two may well become number one.

So who will it be?

Not Kari Lake, a Senate candidate in Arizona and election denier, who’s even more deranged than Trump. She’s not sufficiently well known. And too wild and undisciplined. 

Not South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, another Trump lapdog. Not great on television. 

Not Ohio Senator J.D. Vance. Too unpredictable and ego-maniacal. 

Not South Carolina’s Senator Tim Scott. Racists in Trump world worry he’ll turn off white voters. 

Trump’s most likely pick … (drumroll) … New York State’s Elise Stefanik.

 

Why? She’s a woman, and she’s young (39 years old). Trump obviously needs help with women and young people. 

She’s also a fierce culture warrior. 

When some student protesters defended the October 7 terrorist attacks on Israel by Hamas, Stefanik immediately saw an opportunity to attack diversity programs, score points with rich Wall Street donors, and put a thumb in the eye of the Ivy League (even though — or maybe because — she graduated from Harvard). 

“This is just the beginning,” pledged Stefanik, after her questioning of Dr. Claudine Gay helped set in motion the Harvard president’s resignation. “Our robust congressional investigation will continue to move forward to expose the rot in our most ‘prestigious’ higher-education institutions and deliver accountability to the American people.”

She’s donor bait. Stefanik’s campaign raised more than $5.2 million during the last quarter of 2023 — including contributions from more than 35,000 first-time donors — in a haul that set a new personal record and put her among the ranks of the top fundraisers in Congress.

She’s influential among House Republicans — the highest-ranking woman. 

And she’s an outspoken Trumper. 

She was an early endorser of Trump for the 2024 election.

 

She’s even been imitating his words and phrases. In recent weeks, Stefanik has made headlines for referring to people imprisoned for storming the Capitol on January 6, 2021, as “hostages,” and then rescinded her endorsement of a GOP congressional candidate in Ohio after he called Trump arrogant.

And taking bonkers Trump-like positions. On Thursday, she broke with the rest of GOP leadership and voted against a short-term extension spending bill to avert a government shutdown. She supported such stopgap measures in mid-November and late September. A spokeswoman said Stefanik voted against the measure, which excluded border measures, over concerns about illegal crossings from Canada.

Canada?

Last week she defended Trump against reports that he confused his presidential primary rival Nikki Haley with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. “The reality is Nikki Haley is relying on Democrats, just like Nancy Pelosi, to try to have a desperate showing,” Stefanik said.

She also accused “Joe Biden and his Democrat cronies” of “blatant election interference” in a one-day delay of E. Jean Carroll’s civil defamation case — even though it was Trump’s own attorneys who asked for the delay. 

When she joined Trump Friday evening at a campaign event in New Hampshire, he introduced her to the crowd as “brilliant” and said she “got very famous” for questioning the college presidents. She “did it in a surgical way. Wasn’t it beautiful?”

And she is ambitious and unprincipled — which makes her even more compatible with Trump. 

“I would be honored to serve in the Trump administration in any capacity,” she said in a recent interview, when asked if she was open to the vice president post. 

Her only downside, from Trump’s standpoint, could be that she was once a Republican moderate. She worked in the George W. Bush administration as a domestic policy aide and later for Rep. Paul Ryan when he was a vice presidential nominee.

 

After being elected in 2014 to a House seat vacated by a retiring Democrat (becoming at age 30 the youngest Republican woman in Congress), she initially took centrist positions and occasionally broke with Trump. 

She opposed Trump’s tax cut in December 2017 because it capped the state and local tax deduction at $10,000, which disproportionately affected tax filers in high-tax states like New York. In June 2017, she called his decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate accord a mistake.

But then she saw which way the wind was blowing — not right-ward but nut-ward — and in a viral moment in November 2019, used her spot on the House Intelligence Committee to vigorously defend Trump during hearings in his first impeachment. 

In response, Trump declared, “a new Republican star is born.”

She joined the Republican leadership in 2021 to replace Rep. Liz Cheney, who was ousted for repeatedly criticizing Trump. (Cheney recently posted on X, formerly Twitter, “One day [Stefanik] will have to explain how and why she morphed into a total crackpot. History, and our children, deserve to know.”)

If Trump were smart (if pigs could fly), he’d pick as a running mate a moderate who could reassure independents he’s not utterly unhinged. 

But Trump being Trump, he wants a loyal clone, a total crackpot. 

Stefanik fits the bill perfectly. 

A Majority Approves of Biden Pick Of Harris As His Veep

The chart above reflects the results of a new ABC News / Washington Post Poll -- done between August 12th and 15th of a national sample of 1,001 adults, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

Since Joe Biden chose Kamala Harris to be his vice-presidential running mate, the media has been wondering -- does the pick help Biden or hurt him in the upcoming election?

We know there are a couple of groups that don't like the pick -- the anti-immigrant nuts and the racists. But neither group was going to vote for Biden anyway. They are die-hard Trump voters, because the think (probably correctly) that he is one of their own -- a hater.

But it turns out that a majority of Americans approve of Biden selecting Harris (about 54%). Only 29% disapprove, and the remaining 17% are unsure.

I'm not sure it really matters who Biden picked. This election is a referendum on Donald Trump -- do voters want to give him four more years or kick him out of the White House? But the pick of Harris is not going to hurt Biden.

Kamala Harris Will Be Our Next Vice-President

It's official! Joe Biden has picked his running mate. The next vice-president of the United States will be Kamala Harris (currently the U.S. Senator from California).

I didn't envy Joe Biden in his search for a running mate. He had to choose from a field of about 12 women -- 12 of the smartest and most capable women in this country. Any of them would have been a good pick.

But he has chosen now, and it's Kamala Harris. This is a ticket (Biden / Harris) that I am proud to support!

Here, from Biden's campaign website, is her biography:

The first Black woman to represent California in the United States Senate, Kamala Harris grew up believing in the promise of America and fighting to make sure that promise is fulfilled for all Americans. Kamala’s father immigrated to the U.S. from Jamaica to study economics and her mother immigrated from India. Kamala’s mother told her growing up “Don’t sit around and complain about things, do something,” which is what drives Kamala every single day.

Kamala started fighting for working families in the Alameda County District Attorney’s Office, where she focused on prosecuting child sexual assault cases. From there, she became the first Black woman elected as San Francisco’s District Attorney. In this position, she started a program to provide first-time drug offenders second chances with the opportunity to earn a high school degree and find a job.

In 2010, Kamala became the first Black woman to be elected California Attorney General, overseeing the country’s second largest Justice Department, only behind the U.S. Department of Justice. In this capacity, she managed a $735 million budget and oversaw more than 4,800 attorneys and other employees. As California Attorney General, Kamala fought for families and won a $20 billion settlement for California homeowners against big banks that were unfairly foreclosing on homes.

Kamala worked to protect Obamacare, helped win marriage equality for all, defended California’s landmark climate change law and won a $1.1 billion settlement against a for-profit education company that scammed students and veterans. Kamala also fought for California communities and prosecuted transnational gangs who drove human trafficking, gun smuggling and drug rings.

Since being elected to the U.S. Senate in 2016, Kamala has introduced and co-sponsored legislation to help the middle class, increase the minimum wage to $15, reform cash bail, and defend the legal rights of refugees and immigrants.

Kamala serves on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that deals with the nation’s most sensitive national security and international threats.  She also serves on the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee where she oversees the federal government’s response to natural disasters and emergencies, including the Trump administration’s response to COVID-19.

On the Senate Judiciary Committee, Kamala has held Trump administration officials accountable and was a powerful voice against Trump’s conservative judicial nominations.

Kamala graduated from Howard University, where she was in the Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority, and earned a law degree from the University of California, Hastings College of Law. 

Kamala has been married to her husband Doug for the past six years. She is the stepmother of two children, Ella and Cole who are her “endless source of love and pure joy.”

Is It Important That Biden Choose A Black Woman As V.P.?

The chart above reflects the results of the Yahoo News / YouGov Poll -- done between July 28th and 30th of a national sample of 1,084 registered voters, with about a 3.3 point margin of error.

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden will be picking his vice-presidential running mate in the next couple of weeks. He has said he will choose a woman.

But the talking heads on cable news programs are all debating whether that choice should be a Black woman. The Yahoo News poll decided to ask Americans (registered voters) whether that is important or not. As the results shown above shows, most Americans don't think it's important. Only 36% (white bars) say it is important the candidate be Black, while 63% (orange bars) say it's not important.

There are about 12 candidates getting serious consideration, and several of them are Blacks.

Personally, I like all 12 of those candidates, and I would happily support any of them. I would like to see a Black get the nod, but I doubt it's important. That's because this election doesn't hinge on Biden's choice. It didn't even hinge on who the Democratic candidate was.

I have said it before, and I still believe it -- this election is a referendum on Donald Trump. The voters  are deciding one thing -- to kick Trump out of the White House or allow him to stay. I don't think Biden's choice will make any difference in how the voters decide that question.

It Really Doesn't Matter Who Biden Picks As His V.P.

The chart above is from the Morning Consult Poll -- done between July 24th and 26th of a national sample of 1,997 registered voters, with a 2 point margin of error.

In past elections, it has been important that the presidential candidate pick the right running mate. In 1960, John Kennedy needed a Southerner to balance his ticket to get broad support across the country. In 1964, Lyndon Johnson needed a northern liberal to do the same. The vice-presidential picks in those elections worked well -- and both Kennedy and Johnson scored election victories.

It has also been important that the right choice for veep be competent. In 2008, John McCain chose an unknown to be his veep, and she turned out to be a disaster. It seriously hurt his campaign, and he lost.

2020 is different. As the chart above shows, it probably doesn't matter who Joe Biden chooses. The poll looked at 12 different women (Biden has said he would choose a woman) that are believed to be being considered by Biden. Not that the numbers are very close for every one of them to run with Biden. Some are not as well known as others, but none of them would hurt (or help) Biden.

Why is this?

It is because this election is nothing more than a referendum on Donald Trump. Voters either want to keep Trump in the White House or kick him out of it -- and it really doesn't matter who the Democratic presidential or vice-presidential nominee is.

Trump would like it to be an election of opposing ideologies or cultural values, but it isn't. Voters will either love Trump and want to keep him, or they will consider him to be incompetent and corrupt and want to dump him. And the only way to dump Trump is to vote Democratic.

For political junkies like myself, Biden's choice will be interesting. But it likely doesn't matter to most voters.

Has The Minneapolis Police Murder Hurt Klobuchar?

The chart above reflects the results of the latest Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between March 23rd and 26th of 1500 adults nationwide, with a 3.2 point margin of error. This chart reflects the views of Black voters on some of serious candidates Joe Biden could pick to be his vice-presidential running mate.

The Black vote is very important to the Democratic Party, and it would help Biden to pick a candidate well-liked by Black voters. This chart shows that Elizabeth Warren is viewed favorably by most Blacks (about 65%). Others who do well are Amy Klobuchar (54%), Kamala Harris (53%), and Stacey Abrams (49%).

But the poll was done before the police murder in Minneapolis, and one has to consider whether that has hurt Klobuchar's chances to be selected. Before being elected to statewide office, Klobuchar was a prosecuting attorney in Minneapolis, and her record of prosecuting police for abuse is not necessarily one to be proud of. Here is just a part of how The New York Times is reporting it.

Senator Amy Klobuchar swept into office in 2007 as a former tough prosecutor, boasting of how she had reduced crime in the most populous county in Minnesota. But as protests over George Floyd’s death in police custody bring chaos and violence to Minneapolis, her record as prosecutor there is facing renewed scrutiny as she prepares to be vetted as a leading vice-presidential contender.

With a police force in Minneapolis that has long faced accusations of racism and complaints of abuse, Ms. Klobuchar declined to bring charges against multiple police officers who were involved in shootings during her seven-year tenure. Instead she often opted to send cases to a grand jury, a common practice at the time but one that some law enforcement experts say favors police officers.

On Friday, Ms. Klobuchar said that grand juries were used “in every jurisdiction across our state,” and that she now regretted those decisions.

“I think that was wrong now,” she said in an interview on MSNBC. “I think it would have been much better if I took the responsibility and looked at the cases and made the decision myself.”. . .

During her own presidential campaign, Ms. Klobuchar faced continued protests, as well as some calls to drop out of the race from local black leaders in Minneapolis, after news reports found numerous faults in the prosecution of a black teenager named Myon Burrell while Ms. Klobuchar was the prosecutor. Mr. Burrell had been charged in the murder of an 11-year-old girl and was convicted, but maintained his innocence, and one of Mr. Burrell’s co-defendents had said he was in fact the gunman responsible.

Two days before Super Tuesday in March, a rally in her home state was shut down by protesters demanding she do more to help free Mr. Burrell.

In the months since she dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Mr. Biden, Ms. Klobuchar has taken steps to rectify some of her record.

On the Wednesday after Mr. Biden dominated Super Tuesday states, Ms. Klobuchar sent a letter from her Senate office to the district attorney’s office in Hennepin County, asking them to launch an independent review of Mr. Burrell’s case. She also met with Mr. Burrell’s family and local activists.

Has this hurt Klobuchar's chances of being selected? I have to believe it probably has. Joe Biden needs Black voters to show up in large numbers next November, and picking Klobuchar now would just create a problem that he doesn't need.

Biden Tops Trump In Poll (& Dems Prefer Warren As VP)

The chart above is from a CBS News / YouGov Poll -- done between April 28th and May 1st of 2,200 respondents nationwide, with a 2.5 point margin of error.

The poll showed Joe Biden with a 6 point lead over Donald Trump. That is consistent with other recent polls.

The poll also questioned about 800 Democrats on who they thought Biden should choose as his vice-presidential running mate. Senator Elizabeth Warren led the pack. About 71% said she should be considered to be the VP choice. Others receiving significant support for consideration were Kamala Harris (59%), Stacey Abrams (50%), and Amy Klobuchar (49%).

When the respondents were asked to pick a single candidate, Warren led the others with 36%. Harris had 19%, Abrams had 14%, and Klobuchar had 13%.

NOTE -- Biden promised during the debates that his VP choice would be a woman.

Dems Like Biden's Promise To Choose Woman As Veep

The charts above reflect the results of the latest Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between March 22nd and 24th of of a national sample of 547 Democratic primary voters.

In the last Democratic debate, Joe Biden promised to choose a woman as his vice-presidential running mate. Democratic voters like that idea. An overwhelming 80% of them approve of that decision by Biden.

Who could that woman be? Voters are split on the best choice. Elizabeth Warren leads the pack with 27%. Others are Kamala Harris with 18%, Amy Klobuchar with 10%, and Stacey Abrams with 9%.

Personally, I think all of them would be good.

Vice-President Joe Biden Receives The Medal Of Freedom

(Photo is by Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images in The Washington Post.)

On Thursday, President Obama gave Vice-President Joe Biden a huge surprise. Biden went to the White House believing he was to attend a function honoring his service as vice-president. He was honored -- with the Medal of Freedom, the highest civilian honor that is bestowed by the United States of America.

I think it was an honor that was well-deserved. Biden has a long and distinguished history of service to this country.

Tim Kaine Is An Unknown Commodity To Most Americans

The Democratic Party has nominated Senator Tim Kaine to share the ticket with presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. But while most people know Hillary Clinton, a majority of Americans don't really have a clue as to who Tim Kaine is, or what he stands for.

This is clearly illustrated in the newest YouGov Poll -- done on July 23rd and 24th of a random national sample of 1,300 adults, with a margin of error of 4.2 points. They asked Americans to give a favorable or unfavorable rating to Tim Kaine, but 53% were unable to do so because they didn't know enough about him. And that feeling is shared by both genders, all ages, and all racial groups.

Obviously Tim Kaine has some work to do. He needs to get out and introduce himself to the American voters. I think he could help Democrats in this election -- but he can't do that until the American people know who he is.

Senator Tim Kaine Introduces Himself To National Democrats

(Photo of Senator Tim Kaine is from hillaryclinton.com.)

Here is the e-mail Senator Kaine sent to Democrats nationwide to introduce himself:

Thank you so much for the warm welcome to the team!

I could not be more honored to fight alongside you -- I know that together, we're going to win in November.

I wanted to take a moment to tell you a little bit more about myself -- and bear with me, Ted, since I know you might not have even heard of me before Friday!

Growing up in Kansas, vice president was never a job I aspired to.

My dad ran an iron-working shop and my entire family pitched in to help. 

My parents taught me the lessons that have guided my entire life -- my mom once told me: "Tim, you have to decide if you want to be right or do right. If you want to be right, be a pessimist. If you want to do right, be an optimist."

I've been an optimist ever since. And since my time at a Jesuit boys school, I've been a man of faith.

After racing through college and starting at Harvard Law, I took a year off to volunteer with missionaries in Honduras. I got a firsthand look at a system in which the few folks at the top had all the power and everyone else got left behind.

That experience convinced me: We've got to expand opportunity and equality for everyone, no matter where they come from, how much money they have, what they look like, or who they love.

I'm lucky to have married a woman who felt the same: Anne is the daughter of Virginia Governor Linwood Holton, who integrated Virginia's public schools and modeled how important it was by sending his kids in to lead the way. 

Anne and I settled in Richmond, started a family, joined a church, and made our home together. I took on work as a civil rights lawyer, representing people who were denied housing because of their race or disability.

I found myself at a lot of City Council meetings to raise the issues I was dealing with on behalf of my clients. But the infighting was horrible! So in 1994, I decided to run for office. I knocked on every door in my district, and I won by 94 votes. (I know the value of the kind of organizing this team is doing!)

If I'm good at anything in public life, it's because I started on the local level, listening to people, learning about their lives, and trying to find consensus. 

In the years that followed, I became mayor of Richmond, lieutenant governor of Virginia, and in 2006, I served as governor. 

I had to make tough calls during the recession. But I'm proud of what we accomplished in Virginia: the best managed state, the best state for business, and my personal favorite accolade, the best state to raise a child.

I've kept it up as Virginia's senator. And I won't stop when Hillary and I are in the White House. We'll do what we know best: Deliver results for people. 

That's what drives us both. Hillary and I have different faiths but we share a common creed: Do all the good you can in all the ways you can.

We don't back away from tough fights. We're energized by them. Hillary and I have a strong progressive agenda and we're not going to get distracted from it.

We'll make our economy work for everyone. We'll make college debt-free. We'll take on the NRA, we'll work toward comprehensive immigration reform -- we'll fight for paid family leave, and equality for women, and making sure every kid has a chance to live up to their potential. 

These are tough times -- but we're tough people. We can do it. 

Thanks again for the warm welcome.

Tim

Thoughts On Tim Kaine As The Vice-Presidential Nominee

Hillary Clinton has made her choice of a running mate. She chose Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia. That's probably not who I would have chosen (I was pulling for Rep. Xavier Becerra), but I have no problem with Kaine being on the ticket.

Some people do though. Some of my fellow progressive brothers and sisters are whining that Kaine is not progressive enough. Some have even taken to social media to call him a "Republican".

That is ridiculous. Let me make a couple of points.

1. Kaine may not be as far to the left as Bernie Sanders, but he is a progressive (albeit a moderate one). He supports voting rights, minority rights, LGBT rights, women's rights, abortion rights (even though he personally opposes abortion), workers' rights, a minimum wage raise, and Obamacare. He opposed the XL pipeline, and now opposes the TPP (after initially supporting it).

That's a pretty good list of progressive causes he supports. He has received some criticism for signing a letter to the Consumer Protection Bureau that asks them to be careful not to hurt community banks while trying to rein in the huge commercial banks of Wall Street. Frankly, that sounds reasonable to me. He also has supported fracking and off-shore drilling. I'm not crazy about those positions, but I have to admit that both are generally supported by a majority of Americans.

2. The progressives in the United States are not a majority of voters -- and neither are the right-wingers. The Republicans made a mistake by nominating a ticket that appeals only to the right-wing. By picking Kaine, Clinton avoided making the same mistake (creating a ticket that only appeals to left-wingers).

Independents make up a larger share of the electorate than either Democrats or Republicans, and most of them are moderates (who are frightened by the extremists on both the right and left). These people support some issues of both the left (higher minimum wage, more taxes on rich, protecting Social Security & Medicare, regulating Wall Street, stricter gun control) and the right (national security, protecting Second Amendment, reining in spending), but they don't want to blow up the system to accomplish any of that. They want measured progress done in a reasonable way.

Those are the people who will choose our next president -- and Clinton's choice of Kaine is reaching out to those moderates. Kaine, while progressive, is not viewed as a wild-eyed leftist. He will be able to reach out to that moderate middle of the voting electorate, and that's a good thing.

Remember, the most important thing we can do this year is make sure that Donald Trump gets nowhere near the White House.

Clinton Chose Senator Tim Kaine As Her Running Mate

Hillary Clinton has made her choice for her vice-presidential running mate. It is Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia. I'm sure that pick will make some people happy and disappoint others. That doesn't matter. It was Hillary Clinton's choice to make, and now she's made it. We must now get behind the Clinton/Kaine ticket and make sure they are elected in November. The alternative is just too terrible to even contemplate.

Here is the e-mail message Clinton sent to her supporters announcing her pick for vice-president:

I'm thrilled to share this news: I've chosen Tim Kaine as my running mate.

Tim is a lifelong fighter for progressive causes and one of the most qualified vice presidential candidates in our nation's history.

But his credentials alone aren't why I asked him to run alongside me.

Like me, Tim grew up in the Midwest. During law school, he too took an unconventional path -- he took time off and went to Honduras to work with missionaries, practicing both his faith and his Spanish. 

When he returned to the states and graduated from Harvard Law, he could have done anything. But instead of going to some big corporate firm, he chose to fight housing discrimination as a civil rights lawyer in Richmond. He and his wife joined a church, built a home centered around their faith, and raised three beautiful children. Then, after 17 years of practicing law, Tim ran for city council -- and won. 

Tim says his experience on city council taught him everything he knows about politics. To the people in Richmond, an underfunded school wasn't a Democratic or Republican problem. It was simply a problem that needed fixing, and his constituents were counting on him to solve it. So Tim would do it. He'd roll up his sleeves and get the job done, no matter what. 

He’s a man of relentless optimism who believes no problem is unsolvable if you're willing to put in the work. That commitment to delivering results has stayed with him throughout his decades-long career as a public servant. So I could give you a laundry list of things he went on to accomplish -- as mayor of Richmond, governor of Virginia, and in the United States Senate. 

But this is what’s important: Tim has never taken a job for the glory or the title. He's the same person whether the cameras are on or off. He's sincerely motivated by the belief that you can make a difference in people's lives through public service.  

That quality comes through in every interaction. To know Tim is to love him. When I was talking to people about this decision, I couldn't find anyone -- Democrat or Republican -- who had a bad thing to say about him. From his staff over the last 20 years to his colleagues in the Senate, Tim's beloved. 

He is a genuinely nice person, but Tim is no one's punching bag. He will fight tooth and nail for American families, and he'll be a dogged fighter in our campaign against Donald Trump and Mike Pence.

I want you to know that I didn’t make this decision lightly. 

I’ve had the privilege of seeing two presidents and two vice presidents up close. I want a vice president who can be my partner in bringing this country together. I want someone who will be able to give me their best advice, look me in the eye, and tell me they disagree with me when they do.

But what matters most is a simple test that’s not so simple to meet: whether the person could step in at a moment’s notice and serve as president.

I have no doubt that Tim can do the job.

I want him by my side on the trail and in the White House. 

Thank you,

Hillary