The Political Ideology Of Adults In The United States

 The chart reflects the results of the Gallup Poll. In 2020, they questioned 18,398 adults nationwide -- asking them their political ideology (liberal, moderate, or conservative). The results have a margin of error of 1 point.

Ideological Leanings Of The Supreme Court Justices

There is a lot of discussion about the leanings of the Supreme Court. Is it really a conservative court now with the addition of Gorsuch and Kavanaugh? Yes, but maybe not as much as many people think.

Three political scientists (Lee Epstein, Andrew D. Martin, and Kevin Quinn) did an analysis of each of the justices. They rated each on on a scale of -1 to +1. The -1 score would be very liberal, while the +1 score would be very conservative. A score of 0 would be moderate.

It turns out that the most liberal justices are Sonia Sotomayor and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, with Stephen Breyer and Elena Kagan also on the liberal side of the scale.

The most conservative justices are Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh, with Neil Gorsuch and Samuel Alito also solidly in the conservative camp.

The most interesting is Chief Justice John Roberts. He is slightly conservative, with a score very close to 0. That means he is probably the swing justice now.

Here is the score of each justice:

Sonia Sotomayor (-0.521)

Ruth Bader Ginsburg (-0.518)

Elena Kagan (-0.312)

Stephen Breyer (-.280)

John Roberts (+0.089)

Samuel Alito (+0.387)

Neil Gorsuch (+0.486)

Brett Kavanaugh (+0.693)

Clarence Thomas (+0.725)

Obama Warns Dems Of The Danger Of Purist Ideology

(This photo of President Barack Obama is by Mark Makela / Getty Images at abcnews.go.com.)

I am a progressive Democrat, and I have been for about five decades. I am also a realist, who prefers small progress to no progress at all. I understand that it is extremely unlikely that I will ever find a political candidate that I will agree with on every single thing, and I don't require that.

Unfortunately, there are some people in the party I love who don't think that way. They demand a strict adherence to the principles of progressivism, and refuse to consider any candidate that disagrees with them on any issue. This is especially true of some Bernie Sanders supporters (who require complete agreement with Sanders for anyone to be considered progressive).

This is a dangerous viewpoint in these times. Donald Trump is a danger to this country, and it is extremely important to get him out of the White House in the next election. We don't need to replace him with a "perfect" progressive. Any Democrat who can beat Trump is OK in my book. Even a moderate Democrat would be better than Trump, and with a Democratic Congress would enact at least some of what progressives would like to see.

I am not alone in that view. President Obama also sees a danger in the "purist" ideology being spouted by some progressives. He made the following statements to a Berlin audience a couple of days ago, but the remarks were obviously aimed at members of the Democratic Party. He said:

"One of the things I do worry about sometimes among progressives in the United States —maybe it’s true here as well — is a certain kind of rigidity where we say, 'Uh, I’m sorry, this is how it’s going to be,' and then we start sometimes creating what’s called a 'circular firing squad,' where you start shooting at your allies because one of them has strayed from purity on the issues. And when that happens, typically the overall effort and movement weakens." 

"So I think whether you are speaking as a citizen or as a political leader or as an organizer … you have to recognize that the way we structure democracy requires you to take into account people who don’t agree with you, and that by definition means you’re not going to get 100 percent of what you want." 

"You should take some time to think in your own mind and continually refine and reflect, 'What are my core principles?' Because the danger is if you don’t know what your principles are, that’s when you compromise your principles away. You can’t set up a system in which you don't compromise on anything, but you also can’t operate in a system where you compromise on everything."

A Plurality Of Democrats Now Identify As Liberals

At the turn of this century, a plurality of Democrats identified as moderates (42%), while 32% said they were liberals, and 23% claimed to be conservatives. That has changed significantly. Now the largest group in the party are liberals (progressives) -- a plurality of 46%. Only 35% are moderates and 17% are conservatives. That's a 14 point growth for liberals, and a 7 point drop for moderates.

As the top chart shows, that switch in ideology occurred between 2007 and 2012, when 39% said they were liberals and 38% said they were moderates. The second chart shows that trend toward liberalism was apparent in both genders, all age groups, all education levels, and all race/ethnicities. The bottom chart shows the make up of the party by group and ideology.

This means liberals will have a larger voice in choosing the 2020 presidential candidate than in quite a few years, and the chance of a liberal (progressive) being nominated are pretty good.

I offer one word of caution. While liberals are the largest group in the Democratic Party, they are not the largest group in the voting population at large (and neither are conservatives). The largest group are moderates. The Republicans became an extremist right-wing party, and that hurt them in the last election. Democrats should not make the same mistake.

While it is likely they will nominate a liberal, it should not be one that moderates think is an extremist. Moderates like most Democratic policies right now, but they don't want radical change. If the Democrats nominate someone viewed as an extremist, it will give Trump a chance to be re-elected that he shouldn't have (because many will vote for the devil they know over the devil they don't).

I'm not saying we shouldn't nominate a progressive. I will vote for one myself when the primary rolls around. It just needs to be a progressive that doesn't scare moderate Independents (who will determine the next president).

The charts above are from the Gallup Poll. Here is the methodology:

This analysis is based on combined data from Gallup’s multiday cross-sectional national telephone polls conducted each year from 2001 through 2018. The surveys are representative of adults aged 18 and older, living in the 50 U.S. states and District of Columbia. The results are summarized in six-year periods and include interviews with 73,303 Democrats for 2001-2006, 48,195 Democrats for 2007-2012 and 32,830 Democrats for 2013-2018. Results based on these samples have margins of sampling error of less than ±1 percentage point at the 95% confidence level.

Will The 2020 Election Be About Ideology Or Likability?

Almost immediately after Elizabeth Warren's declaration that she is forming an exploratory committee to run for president in 2020, two things happened. First, progressives extolled her ideology, and then many cable news pundits questioned whether she was likable enough to be elected. Is either one correct, and does it even matter if they are?

I will probably anger many of my progressive brothers and sisters by saying this, but I don't think ideology wins presidential elections. Both the left and the right seem convinced that they can convince voters that their ideology is the one that will save the country. While I prefer the progressive agenda, I don't think it alone will win an election -- and neither will the ultra-conservative agenda.

A candidate with a progressive agenda will make most Democrats happy, and will likely bring them to the polls. A candidate with a conservative agenda will likely make Republicans happy, and will likely bring them to the polls. The problem is that there aren't enough Democrats or Republicans to win an election by themselves. Presidential elections are swung, one way or the other, by Independent voters.

And like it or not, most of those Independent voters are moderates. While they may like some of the changes proposed by Democrats or Republicans, they don't want to go too far too fast either way. They want change done in moderation -- in small steps, so they can be sure the change is good. They will almost always vote for the more moderate candidate -- not the ideologically pure candidate of either party.

How about likability? Do the voters vote for the candidate the like the most -- the one they see as affable? Rarely. I can only think of two elections that likability probably played a factor. The first was in 1960. The nation was pretty happy with how things were going in the country, and the election was very close. But in the TV debate, Kennedy looked confident and likable while Nixon looked like a dour ideologue. The nation chose Kennedy.

The other election was in 1992. I think it did help Bill Clinton to have a friendly and likable personality, which his opponent could not match. Both were fairly moderate candidates, so voters chose the more likable one and Clinton won.

Having said that, I don't think the 2020 election will hinge on likability. It simply doesn't matter whether Warren (or any other Democrat) is likable or not. That's because their opponent is not well liked by the public (see chart below).

The 2020 election will be a satisfaction or change election, and that is pretty normal in presidential elections.When voters are happy with the way things are going in the country, they usually give the party in power another four years in the White House. When they are not happy, they give the White House to the opposition party in a change election.

2020 is going to be a change election. The public is not happy with how Trump is doing his job, and unless he changes that, they will elect a Democrat. I'm not sure he wants to change, or could change if he wanted to do it. He has certainly shown no desire or ability to do it so far.

The Democrats should be able to oust Trump in 2020, provided they don't go off the deep end and nominate a candidate that scares the moderate middle (like a candidate that brags about being a socialist). Democrats would make a mistake (and possibly blow the election) by trying to force an ideology that's too extreme on the voters. They need to be the more moderate party, and that should be easy to do in opposing Trump. Just remember to keep the election about the arrogance and incompetence of Trump -- not some pie-in-the-sky plan for radical change.

This chart uses information from the Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between December 30th and January 1st of a national sample of 1,500 adults, with a 2.9 point margin of error.

Percentage Of Liberals Continues To Grow In The U.S.

These charts are from the latest Gallup Poll taken on the political ideology of Americans. It was done in 2017 of a random nation sample of 12,766 adults, and has a margin of error of 1 points.

The chart above shows that the percentage who identify as liberal has increased by 5 points since 2010 (from 21% to 26%). Those identifying as conservative has dropped by an equal percentage (from 40% to 35%).

The chart below shows how the members of demographic groups identify themselves. Liberals do best among women, younger people, and those with more education.

Public Perception Of Political Ideology Of Clinton & Trump

The charts above are from a Gallup Poll -- done between September 14th and 18th of a random national sample of 931 registered voters, and has a 4 point margin of error.

I thought it was interesting. It shows how the general public sees Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton on the political ideology scale.

One thing that seems a bit odd is that while Donald Trump was nominated by the teabaggers (the most rabidly conservative wing of the Republican Party), less than half of the general public views him as a conservative (only 47%). He is also viewed as less conservative than any recent GOP candidate -- Romney (60%), McCain (62%), Bush II (68%), or Bush I (59%).

The reason for that is because Trump has flip-flopped on many issues, and the public is probably confused as to just where he really stands.

The public also sees Hillary Clinton as more liberal than her husband Bill (58% to 42%) -- a substantial 16 point margin. I think this is true. Hillary is a solid liberal, while Bill was the ultimate pragmatist.

I also thought it was strange that Barack Obama is viewed as more liberal than Hillary Clinton. My personal view is just the opposite. While I liked Obama (and voted for him twice), I view him more as a moderate. Also odd was that John Kerry is viewed as liberal by less than half of the public (48%). Except when it comes to issues about Israel, Kerry is a very solid liberal.

What do you think? Did the public get it right in this poll?

Clinton Still Leads Nationally Among Democrats

These charts were made from the new Public Policy Polling survey -- done between March 24th and 26th of a random national sample of 422 Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of 4.8 points.

The recent rumblings from the media talking heads is that Bernie Sanders has momentum, and might actually have a path to the Democratic nomination. I don't believe that. He has won some caucus states recently (which are his strength), but some big state primaries are coming up -- and they should settle any doubts anyone might have as to who the nominee will be (Hillary Clinton).

This new poll shows us that Clinton is still the choice of Democrats nationwide -- leading Sanders by 18 points (54% to 36%). And that is true of nearly every gender, race, and age demographic. It is only among the young that Sanders has a lead (35% to 49%).

Even more interesting is when the Democrats are broken down by ideology. One would expect that since Sanders is a socialist, he would be most popular among those who consider themselves "very liberal". But that is not true (see chart below). He actually loses by the biggest margin in that group (about 33 points). He does best, but still loses, among those who say they are conservatives.

Liberals Are Rising, But No Ideology Is Dominant In U.S.

These charts are from the Gallup Poll. They questioned 12,137 adults throughout the year of 2015 to get the latest results (and a similar sample for earlier years), and the margin of error is only 1 point because of the large sample.

Those identifying as liberal have seen a rise in their percentage since 1992 -- going from 17% to 24 %. That's a significant 7 point rise. Meanwhile, the percentage of conservatives has remained constant -- at 36% in 1992 and 37% in 2015 (within the margin of error). Moderates have seen an 8 point drop since 1992 -- from 43% to 35%.

A plurality of Democrats (45%) now see themselves as liberals, while a majority of Republicans (68%) see themselves as conservatives. Among Independents, a plurality (41%) see themselves as moderates.

Those on the right, and on the left, would like to think that most Americans agree with them -- but that is simply not true. There are enough moderates to keep either extreme from being dominant. And as is usual, it will be the moderates who decide in 2016 who will be our next president. The Democrat or Republican viewed as the most moderate will be elected.

GOP Primary Voters Are Too Conservative For General Public

The Republican Party, controlled by extremist teabagger elements in most states, seems to think they represent the feelings of most Americans. They think most Americans are conservatives, and many of them said after the 2012 election that they lost because their candidate wasn't conservative enough. They were wrong.

In the 2012 election, only 35% of voters identified themselves as conservatives, while 41% said they were moderates and 25% said they were liberals. And the fact that most Americans are not conservative is even more true today. Currently only 32% of registered voters identify as conservative, while 42% say they are moderate and 23% say they are liberal. This makes it more likely that general election voters will choose the least extremist candidate -- whether that candidate is a Democrat or Republican.

Of course, this brings up the question -- Which party is most likely to nominate the most moderate candidate? We can get a clue from this recent NBC News / Wall Street Journal Poll -- taken between March 1st and 5th of a random national sample of voters, with a margin of error of 3.1 points.

Note that the primary voters in the Republican Party are much more to a political extreme than the primary voters of the Democratic Party. About 67% of GOP primary voters identify themselves as conservative (with 28% moderate and 5% liberal), while only 46% of Democratic primary voters identify as liberal (with 40% as moderate and 14% as conservative). This makes it highly likely that the Republicans will nominate someone on the far right, while a majority of Democrats would be likely to choose someone more moderate.

This gives the Democrats an edge to begin with. Hillary Clinton is the most likely candidate, and she is already viewed as fairly moderate by most Democrats and most American voters. But the Republican candidates have a problem. They are going to have to veer far to the right to get nominated, and then come back to the middle to have a chance in the general election -- a very difficult task in the internet age, when their primary positions can be replayed over and over again in the general election.

Liberals Up By 5 Points In 10 Years & Are Plurality Of Dems

The charts above show a small bit of good news. In the last ten years, the percentage of liberals in the general population has grown by 5% (from 19% in 2004 to 24% in 2014), while conservatives dropped by 2% and moderates by 4%. Liberals are still outnumbered by both conservatives and moderates, but at least things are moving in the right direction. I just wish it could move a little bit faster.

The charts below are also pretty interesting. They show the movement of all three ideologies in both the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, and among Independents in the last couple of decades. The percentage of liberals in the Democratic Party has grown significantly during those years -- and they now represent a significant plurality of all Democrats (44%). Moderates comprise a plurality of all Independents (41%), and the Republican Party remains in the grip of conservatives (many of them right-wing extremists).

These charts were made from a recent Gallup Poll release -- which contained the results of 15 polls taken in 2014 of a random national sample of 16,479 adults, with a 1 point margin of error.

For Those Who Think Democrats & GOP Are The Same

(This image is from the mind and artistic ability of DonkeyHotey.)

Sometimes I hear people say the Democrats and Republicans are the same -- that both have sold out to the corporate interests, and neither represents the American people any more. I can understand how someone might think that way. The Democrats are far from perfect, and regular readers of this blog have seen me take them to task for their failings many times. But the Republicans are far worse -- having embraced far right-wing extremist policies that will do serious damage to this country.

Before going to the polls today, consider the following:

DEMOCRATS want to protect Social Security.

REPUBLICANS want to privatize Social Security, and if they can't do that, then they want to increase the age of retirement and cut the benefits.

DEMOCRATS want to protect Medicare.

REPUBLICANS want to abolish Medicare, and throw the elderly to the mercy of for-profit insurance companies.

DEMOCRATS want to raise the minimum wage to at least $10.10 an hour.

REPUBLICANS oppose raising the minimum wage, and many of them would like to abolish it.

DEMOCRATS want to protect the right of all citizens to join a labor union, so they can bargain for fair wages and safe working conditions.

REPUBLICANS want to destroy labor unions, and put all workers at the mercy of the giant corporations.

DEMOCRATS want to abolish the tax break corporations get for exporting American jobs.

REPUBLICANS want to protect that tax break and help the corporations continue the exporting of American jobs.

DEMOCRATS think corporations should pay their fair share of taxes, and would eliminate many subsidies and loopholes that help corporations to avoid paying taxes.

REPUBLICANS want to protect those subsidies and loopholes, and many of them don't think corporations should have to pay any taxes at all.

DEMOCRATS want to protect the environment, and insure that future generations inherit a world with clean soil, water, and air.

REPUBLICANS want to cut EPA funding and let corporations continue to pollute our soil, water and air.

DEMOCRATS want to cut the budget deficit and national debt in a responsible way.

REPUBLICANS don't want to cut them at all. They want to cut the programs that help ordinary Americans, so they can give more money to their buddies in the military-industrial complex.

DEMOCRATS want to protect the voting rights of all Americans.

REPUBLICANS want to suppress the voting rights of those they don't think will vote for them.

Are Americans As Conservative As They Claim To Be ?

Last January, the Gallup Poll published a survey showing how Americans self-identify their own political ideology (conservative, moderate, or liberal). And as with similar polls in recent years, significantly more Americans claimed to be conservative than claimed to be liberal (38% to 23% for the general population). In fact, there is only one group where more people say they are liberals than conservatives -- those also identifying as Democrats. Both Republicans and Independents join the general public as having more conservatives than liberals.

Now this might make the casual observer believe that the American public supports the policies advanced by conservatives significantly more than they support the policies advanced by liberals, but things are not quite that simple. While the Republicans have been successful in demonizing the word "liberal", they have not been nearly as successful in convincing the public that liberals ideas and policies are bad for the country.

This is shown in the results of a recent survey by the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute (done between April 7th and 27th of a random national sample of 1,538 adults, with a margin of error of about 3.3 points). The following charts show the results of that survey:

That doesn't sound like the American public is afraid of liberal ideas and policies to me. All of the above are anathema to conservatives (and their congressional representatives). They are liberal policies and ideas -- and they are accepted by a significant majority of the American population. And it doesn't stop there. Earlier this week an ABC News / Washington Post Poll showed that 70% of the public supported the new EPA rules requiring tougher pollution standards for energy plants -- and 63% support those tougher rules even if it would result in a $20 a month higher electric bill. We also know from several surveys that over 80% of Americans want the loopholes closed in the background check law for gun purchases -- and smaller, but significant, majorities would like to see large volume ammunition clip and assault weapons banned.

Americans may be reticent to identify themselves as liberal, but they are definitely willing to accept and support many liberal ideas and policies. To put it bluntly, the American public is a lot more liberal than they think they are (or will admit).

Millennials Trending Away From GOP & Conservatism

The Pew Research Center recently did a very good survey that concerned Millennials, and how they differed from other generations. It was a long article and  well worth reading, but here I'll just confine myself to how the generations differed on political affiliation, ideology, and social issues. In this survey, the generations are defined as below:

Millennials...............18 to 33 years old
Generation X...............34 to 49 years old
Baby Boomers...............50 to 68 years old
Silent Generation...............69 to 86 years old

As you can see from the charts above, each generation is producing more Independents that the one that came before it, and currently 50% of Millennials identify themselves as Independents -- more than any other generation. But that does not mean they view the two political parties equally. The millennials give the Democrats a 10 point edge in party ID. Interestingly enough, the Republicans have damaged their reputation enough with their congressional shenanigans that now all four generations have a higher ID with Democrats than with Republicans -- Generation X by 11 points, the Baby Boomers by 7 points, and the Silent Generation by 5 points.

It gets more interesting when you add in the leaners (those calling themselves Independents but leaning toward one party or the other) as illustrated in the second and third charts. This more vividly demonstrates how each passing generation prefers Democrats more than the preceding one, and that is especially true of Millennials. When leaners are included, the Silent Generation prefers Democrats by only 1 point, the Baby Boomers by 4 points, Generation X by 10 points, and the Millennials by a whopping 16 points.

This preference for Democrats by all generations doesn't necessarily mean the 2014 election will be a great one for Democrats. As those who keep up with politics know, off-year elections like 2014 are not determined by party preference but by turn-out (since many people tend to vote in presidential elections and skip off-year elections). The 2014 election will be won by the party that does the best job of turning out voters -- and the higher the vote total, the better for Democrats.

But it should send a warning signal to Republicans for 2016 and future elections, because younger voters are trending away from them and their ideology. As the Silents (and Boomers) die off, the electorate will trend more toward the Democrats with each passing election. This trend can't be reversed unless the Republicans moderate their policies on social issues (something the teabaggers will not let them do right now). Note in the two following charts that the younger generations are getting less conservative and more liberal -- with both political ideology and on social issues.

There is one more chart I thought was interesting. It shows the generational views of Congress and each party's congressional leaders. Note that while none of the generations have much respect for the current Congress, it is the Millennials that view it most favorably (but by only 30% -- not a figure to be especially proud of). But while they are all upset with Congress, note that all of the generations are more upset with the Republican congressional leaders than the Democratic leaders -- which also shows that a high turnout in 2014 would favor the Democratic Party.

This Pew Research Center survey was done between February 12th and 26th of a national sample of 3,338 adults (with a 2 point margin of error. The generational breakdown was:
Millennials..........645 respondents (4.5 point margin of error)
Generation X..........699 respondents (4.3 point margin of error)
Baby Boomers..........1,292 respondents (3.1 point margin of error)
Silent Generation..........584 respondents (4.7 point margin of error)