116th Congress Will Have A Record Number Of Women

The 115th Congress had 107 women in it (House and Senate combined). The 116th Congress will have 123 women. That's a record for the number of women in Congress. And it is mainly due to Democrats, who ran a record number of women. The number of Democratic women in Congress was 78 in the 115th Congress, but grows to 104 in the 116th Congress. Meanwhile the number of Republican women dropped from 29 in the 115th Congress to only 19 in the 116th Congress.

Democrats took a big step toward becoming a more gender-inclusive party, while Republicans moved closer to being an all-male party in Congress.

But while 123 women in Congress is a move in the right direction, it's not good enough. Women make up slightly more than half the population, and should compose about half of the members of Congress.

We still have a lot of work to do to end the political patriarchy in this country.

Trump Threatens To Shut Down The Government

The federal government is only funded through the month of September. If a new budget is not passed by Congress and signed by the president by September 30th, the federal government will shut down on October 1st. But here is what Trump tweeted on Sunday:

“I would be willing to ‘shut down’ government if the Democrats do not give us the votes for Border Security, which includes the Wall!”

That's right. Trump is threatening to shut down the federal government if Congress doesn't give him the $20 to $25 billion he needs to build a wall between the United States and Mexico. He has threatened to do that a couple of times in the past, and then backed down. Will he do it this time?

I think there's a 50-50 chance he will actually do it this time. He may be an idiot, but he can read the polls -- and he knows there is a good chance that one (or both) houses of Congress will flip to Democratic control in the coming election. If that happens, he can forget any hope of getting his silly wall. This could well be his last chance to get the money for that wall.

Is Congress likely to give him that wall money? No. The GOP is split and fighting among themselves over the budget, and if a budget is going to be passed, Democratic support is needed. The best Trump can hope for in a new budget is maybe $5 billion to start the wall, and Democrats will only do that if other programs (programs that actually help real people) are protected.

Republican candidates are already facing an uphill battle this November, and the last thing they need is a government shutdown that will anger voters -- especially a shutdown over the border wall (which is opposed by a majority of Americans). I expect they will do their best to talk Trump out of shutting the government down.

Will they succeed? That depends on how much Trump really wants that wall. I think he still thinks he can bully Congress into giving him what he wants -- and that means a government shutdown is a real possibility.

The GOP-Controlled Congress Remains Deeply Unpopular

These charts are from a new Gallup Poll -- done between July 1st and 11th of a national sample of 1,033 adults, with a margin of error of 4 points.

Job Approval Of Trump And Congress Still Upside-Down

These charts reflect the results of the new Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between June 24th and 26th of a national sample of 1,500 adults, with a margin of error of 3.1 points.

Neither Trump nor Congress has been able to significantly improve on their job approval numbers. Currently, Donald Trump has a negative 14 point gap. Congress is even worse, with a negative 41 point gap. These numbers do not bode well for Republicans (who control Congress) with an election only four months away.

Monmouth Poll Shows A Blue Wave Is Still Likely

These chart reflect the results contained in a new Monmouth University Poll -- done on June 13th and 14th of a national sample of 806 adults, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

It shows that Americans disapprove of the job Congress is doing by 48 points. And by 7 points, they disapprove of the tax reform plan passed by the Republican Congress. That tells me that the predicted "blue wave" is still very likely to happen. The third chart supports that view -- with the public preferring Democrats by a 7 point margin.

Public Is Still Very Unhappy With The 115th Congress

These charts reflect the results of the latest Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between June 3rd and 5th of a national sample of 1,500 adults, with a margin of error of 3.2 points. They show the public remains very unhappy with the Republican-controlled 115th Congress. Only 11% approves of the job Congress is doing, while 59% disapproves. And when you break it down demographically, you see that is the feeling among all the different groups.

There Have Been 22 School Shootings (I Blame Congress)

On Friday, there was another school shooting -- this time in a Santa Fe, Texas, high school. Ten people were killed and several wounded. It marks the 22nd school shooting in the United States this year, and the year is only 20 weeks old. That's an average of more than one school shooting every week. And if you look at all mass shootings, the U.S. is averaging about one every single day.

Elected officials (local, state, and national) were quick to send their "thoughts and prayers". Frankly, I'm a little tired of hearing about their "thoughts and prayers". They haven't prevented any school (or mass shootings) in the past, didn't prevent this one, and won't prevent any of the ones in the future. It's time for our politicians to stop the pious posing and actually do something to prevent the more than 30,000 gun deaths in this country every year. We are in the midst of an epidemic, and our elected officials (especially in the U.S. Congress) refuse to do anything about it.

Some will say not is not the time since passions are inflamed over the shooting. That is bullshit! With a school shooting every week and a mass shooting every day, when is the time. The time is NOW!

Some will also claim this epidemic is a mental health problem, and not a gun problem. That's a ridiculous assertion. All developed nations have a problem with mental health, but only one allows the dangerously mentally ill (and criminals and terrorists) to legally buy any kind of gun they desire -- the United States. It is a gun problem.

Some will say we can't do anything because of the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. That's also ludicrous! Many solutions have been offered that do not violate the Second Amendment, and out Congress won't even discuss them, let alone vote on them.

Some also say there is no "cure-all" that will prevent all mass shooting or gun deaths. That is true. But there are measures that will significantly reduce the number of mass shootings and gun deaths, and actions that would save hundreds or thousands of American lives are well worth doing.

There ar two actions that would significantly reduce gun deaths. We could close the holes in our background check law, and make ALL gun buyers go through a background check (even for purchases from an individual). And we could ban the sale of military-style assault weapons (which are the weapon of choice for most mass shooters). Both actions have been declared constitutional by our Supreme Court.

Some will claim that people will just buy a gun on the black market if they fail a background check. But that's no excuse for letting them legally buy a gun -- and buying from a criminal gun dealer is not as easy as gun nuts would have you believe.

Unfortunately, noting will probably be done (except more thoughts and prayers). That's because too many in Congress are owned by the NRA, and the NRA is owned by the gun manufacturers. Those congressmen have made the decision that the lives of Americans are not as important as getting themselves re-elected. For that reason, I blame Congress for this latest school shooting -- and for the future ones.

New Poll Shows Democrats With An 8 Point Lead

These charts reflect information in the latest Monmouth University Poll -- done between April 26th and 30th of a random national sample of 803 adults, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

It shows that the public is still very dissatisfied with the Republican-controlled 115th Congress. Only 17% approve of the job they are doing, while 71% disapprove -- a negative gap of 54 points.

And the tax plan the Republicans touted is unlikely to save them. About 44%disapprove of it, while 40% approve. They needed far better numbers than that, and to their dismay, it looks like the numbers are getting worse instead of better.

This means the Democrats are currently favored by 8 points (49%  to 41%).

Approval Ratings For Trump And Congress Still Upside-Down

Not much needs to be said about this. Both Donald Trump and the 115th Congress have been unable to significantly improve their job approval ratings in months.

The charts show the results of a new Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between April 29th and May 1st of a random national sample of 1,500 adults, with a 3.1 point margin of error.

Another Poll Highlights The Problems Of Trump And GOP

The results shown in all these charts are from the latest Monmouth University Poll -- done between March 2nd and 5th of a random national sample of 803 adults, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

Like all other polls, it shows that the Trump administration and the GOP-dominated 115th Congress are very unpopular with most Americans. Trump has a negative 15 point net approval rating. Congress is even worse, with a net negative approval gap of 54 points. Both point to a possible wave election that will flip Congress in November. That is also reflected by a 9 point generic ballot gap favoring Democrats.

White House officials say Trump is ready to hit the campaign trail to help Republicans in the coming election. I wonder though -- if you were a Republican running in this election, would you want Trump to come to your district and campaign for you? If you are running in a very safe district, you wouldn't need him -- and if you are running in a competitive district, he would probably hurt more than help. It will be interesting to see how many Republicans actually want him campaigning in their district.

The charts below show another problem for Republicans. Americans (73%) believe Russia interfered with the 2016. And they (64%) think Russia is again trying to interfere in the 2018 election. It would make sense then that our government would be taking actions to prevent that interference. But 62% say Trump is not taking the Russian interference seriously, and 59% say the government is not doing enough to stop the Russian interference.

Why isn't our Republican-dominated government taking all steps possible to prevent Russia from meddling in our elections? Do they not care about the sanctity of our electoral process? Or do they think the Russians will help them survive the coming election? Either way, the Republicans are disappointing a significant majority of Americans.

Job Approval For Trump And Congress Remain Very Low

The charts above reflect information in the latest Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between March 3rd and 5th of a random national sample of 1,122 voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

The charts show the job approval numbers of Donald Trump and the Republican-dominated 115th Congress. Neither looks very good. Trump continues to have a negative net approval gap of 18 points, and that has been roughly true since he was sworn in. He seems unable to close that negative gap.

But the numbers for the Republican Congress is much worse. It has a negative net approval of a whopping 67 points -- and like Trump, they have not been able to improve those numbers.

These are not just bad numbers -- they are terrible numbers. It's the kind of numbers that could result in a wave election (which could flip control of one or both houses of Congress). And since Trump's numbers are also upside-down, the Republicans running for re-election can't depend on him having any coattails on which they can cling.

Trump and the Republicans have a few months to change those numbers. If they can't change them (which they've been unable to do so far), then the November election could be disastrous for them.

The Public Is Demanding Changes To Our Gun Control Laws

As the top chart shows, the public has no confidence that the Republican-controlled 115th Congress will take any action to control gun violence in this country. This is because most of the members of Congress are either bought off by the NRA (through large campaign donations) or are afraid voters will punish them if they vote for stricter gun control.

There's not much to do about those who have been bought by the NRA (except to vote them out of office), but it is time to do away with the myth that the voters don't want stricter gun control.

As the charts below show, there are several gun control measures that the public supports. None of these violate the Constitution's Second Amendment, and none of them would infringe on law-abiding citizens right to buy and possess a gun. And best of all, all of them are supported by a majority of registered voters (and members of the three political groups, including Republicans).

The country is changing, and most Americans no longer believe the lies being told by the NRA. It is time for Congress to act. The public is demanding that action.

All of these charts reflect information in a new Politico / Morning Consult Poll -- done between February 22nd and 26th of a random national sample of 1,992 registered voters, with only a 2 point margin of error.

Public Still Has A Very Poor Opinion Of The GOP Congress

These charts represent the results of a new Rasmussen Poll -- done on February 13th and 14th of a random national sample of 1,000 likely voters, with a 3 point margin of error.

It shows that the public still has no confidence in the Republican-led 115th Congress. About 15% think they are doing a good job, and only 6% believe they will actually address the nation's most serious problems.

Do These Charts Portend A Wave Election This Year ?

These charts reflect the numbers in a new Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between February 2nd and 5th of a random national sample of 1,333 voters, with a margin of error of 3.3 points.

Do they show a coming wave election this November? I believe it's a distinct possibility. Note the terrible gap that has persisted on the job approval of the 115th Congress. It is currently a negative 62 point gap. That's a public that is in a "kick them out" mood, and the people most likely to be kicked out are the ones in control -- the Republicans.

Couple that with the charts that show the public is more unhappy with the Republicans than the Democrats, and the charts that show more people would prefer Democrats be in charge of the House and Senate, and you have the seeds being sown for a wave election.

Can Trump help stave off that wave for Republicans? No. His numbers aren't as bad as those of Congress, but he has also carried a substantial negative approval gap (currently at a negative 15). That's not someone who has coattails to offer the members of his party.

It's still several months until the voting in November, but right now things look good for Democrats -- if they can convince their voters to get to the polls (and the hatred of Trump will really help with that).

Congress Remains Very Unpopular With The Public

The Republican-controlled 115th Congress remains very unpopular with the public. Only a tiny 11% approve of the job Congress is doing, while 63% say they disapprove. And those numbers are after the Congress passed the tax reform bill. It seems that the tax bill didn't improve the public's opinion of Congress.

Americans aren't thrilled with the performance of either party in Congress, but they have a lower opinion of the job Republicans have done than the job Democrats have done. With such a low opinion of Congress, and the fact that Democrats aren't viewed as unfavorably as Republicans, I think the opportunity for Democrats to flip Congress in this year's elections remains a real possibility.

The numbers in the chart above are from the latest Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between January 28th and 30th of a random national sample of 1,500 adults, with a 3 point margin of error.

Republicans Are In Trouble With Young Voters (18-34)

These charts were made using results from a recent NBC News / GenForward - University of Chicago Survey -- done between January 3rd and 16th of a random national sample of 1,844 millennials (between 18 and 34), and the entire poll has a margin of error of 3.95 points.

It shows that the Republican Party has a significant problem with young voters. They disapprove of the job Trump is doing by 44 points, and they disapprove of the job the GOP-led Congress is doing by an even larger 49 points. They also think the country is on the wrong track by 45 points. In other words, they are currently very unhappy with our national government.

And things are nearly as bad when the two major parties are considered by young voters. They have a more favorable view of the Democratic Party over the Republican Party by 20 points. They think the Democratic Party cares for for them by 26 points. And they consider themselves members of (or leaning toward) the Democratic Party by 26 points.

Will these young voters show up at the polls in large numbers next November? I believe they will. They have been energized (like their older peers) by the hateful agenda of Trump and the Republican Party, and November will be their chance to display their displeasure.