IMF Short Term Elasticities Are Not Crazy

Gross World Product Will Not Grow at 4%+ for Five Years

Wow, just Wow.

Latest Global Oil Price/Production Plot

Driving is Extremely Inelastic

US economic output (GDP in chained 2005 dollars) per vehicle mile traveled 1960-2008 (left scale), together with annual average oil prices adjusted for inflation to 2008 dollars (right scale). Source: FHWA for VMT data, BEA for GDP, and BP for oil prices.

US Price-Production Plot

Oil price versus US crude production 1900-2009.  2009 is through Aug for production, and through October for price.  Prices are inflation adjusted to 2008.  Sources: BP for prices, and EIA for production. 

How Elastic is Saudi Oil?

Spot oil price versus Saudi Arabian oil supply, 2001-2009.  Source: Supply is an index constructed from EIA, IEA, JODI, and O&GJ estimates. Price is spot price of West Texas Intermediate according to EIA , adjusted for inflation using the CPI to Jan 2008 dollars.

Another Million Barrels per Day, Each Year

Americans out! Stop worrying about the state of the world and go make the stuffing. I'm only allowed in here because I'm a British citizen as well as a US citizen :-)

Inelastic Russian Oil

Spot oil price versus Russian oil supply, 2001-2009.  Source: Supply is average of EIA, IEA, estimates. Price is spot price of West Texas Intermediate according to EIA , adjusted for inflation using the CPI to Jan 2008 dollars.

Of Course, it's Tempting...

Things Really Are Different

US Economic Recovery in the Era of Inelastic Oil

Ok, suppose you'd never heard of peak oil.

Or you didn't believe in it.

What could you conclude from the recent history of price and global oil supply?