The Destruction of the Samarra Shrine. posted by Richard Seymour

Bush denouncing the bombing of the Al Askariya Mosque in Samarra is entirely hypocritical, of course. Such pious pretenses from Western leaders are entirely predictable, contain no information, and do not deserve to be meditated on. But if the perpetrators, whoever they are, wanted to precipitate a civil war then they couldn't have done a better job. No one was killed in the actuall bombing, but 130 people have so far been killed in what is described as "sectarian violence" today. I expect the bulk of this is 'revenge attacks' on Sunnis, but Reuters reports that 47 people of both Sunni and Shi'ite denominations have been dragged out of their vehicles and shot to pieces while trying to attend a 'cross-sectarian' demonstration for unity.

The news is hot with talk of the fabled civil war, and it is all too easy to see how this might now materialise. Resistance attacks on troops have continued much as normal. Indeed, the rate of resistance attacks has been rising dramatically over the last two years. One would expect that to be reduced substantially if there were a civil war and fighting was directed inwardly. Of course, several things militate against such an outcome: a number of leading Iraqi clerics and nationalists will try to control any such movement, while a number will oppose it outright; many Shi'ites are blaming the United States, while others blame Takfiris, not the Sunni population as a whole; the fact that there have been demonstrations of 'cross-sectarian' solidarity is encouraging in itself.

So, who did it? Well, according to The Guardian:

There was no claim of responsibility, but the five police officers responsible for protecting the mosque were taken into custody, and Iraqi authorities said another 10 men "with links to al-Qaida" had been arrested.

According to ABC News:

Insurgents posing as police destroyed the golden dome of one of Iraq's holiest Shiite shrines Wednesday[.]

The latter appears to be based on the testimony on Mosque Guards.

The attack was not a resistance attack. It was not directed against troops, or the infrastructure of occupation. It was not even directed against worshippers, or even the five policemen guarding the mosque who were tied up inside it and still not killed. It might well have been associates of 'Al Qaeda in Iraq' as the assumption already goes: there have been a number of reports on anti-Shiite literature emerging from their members and supporters. They have also been behind a number of attacks on Shi'ite worshippers - but they usually take bodies with them.

However, there is no reason for anyone who is not an apologist for the US - or indeed Israel - to stop there. There are perfectly excellent reasons why the US would desire a civil war: Sectarian divisions along religious lines interrupts and militates against the possibility of generating a national, unified resistance to the occupation. It also ensures that those who might otherwise be fighting US troops are busily hunting after and killing key opponents of the occupation. It also diverts attention away from a series of scandals involving US and UK troops. And finally, it provides justification for remaining in Iraq, which means no one will ask any questions about the fourteen permanent bases they've built there. The United States has recently taken its troops out of Saudi Arabia and left its favourite desert monarchy in the tender care of American mercenaries. It would be a huge climb-down for the US to leave without defeating the resistance - because it would effectively say that the resistance won. And so, since the resistance is only increasing in strength and popularity, the US is in it for some decades to come. Iraqis know this. Mossad too, if you like. Israel has long had an interest in the break-up of Iraq, and certainly sees itself as a conditional ally of the US in the country. Just because Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says it doesn't mean you have to disagree. You've got plenty else to disagree with that guy about.

As Roobin points out, during the mass disturbance in Basra last year (one recent result of which hostility is the decision of the local authorities to cut off relations with the British), arrested British SAS were found dressed as Mahdi Army fighters and equipped with various weapons as well as a remote control detonator. They were accused by police, if you remember, of planting bombs. And of course, the US has a policy of trying to provoke terrorist attacks or "stimulate reactions" from terrorist groups through the Proactive Preemptive Operations Group.

All I'm saying is, don't leap to conclusions and start bouncing your fancy conspiracy theories about jihadis this and Sunni extremists that off of me. Slow down, let the information seep in. That's all.