The Treasury, ever keen to help out its former/current leader, Mr G. Brown, is today alleged to be looking at a sale of Northern Rock by the end of this year; just to show how right the Government has been in this crisis.
I doubt this will happen as the current sunny uplands of green shoots are going to get a rough ride when we come round to September/October again, if not before.
Also, what is Northern Rock now? 50 high street stores, a current account and savings business and a £100 billion mortgage book of dodgy interest only mortgages. Plus the Government has sunk £3 billion into the beast to maintain its capital.
Then there is the work out of the funding structure Granite and the fact that the Government wants to use the Rock to encourage more lending to residential mortgage market. No one will buy this at a good price and half the banks in the UK won't be allowed to for competition reasons in any event.
Instead there will be a 'spin' operation:
*Northern Wreck will be stripped of all toxic assets that will be lumped elsewhere in UKFI (the Government vehicle).
*Only the savings and 'good' mortgage book (what is left of them, most of these mortgagees have been pushed to refinance elsewhere and the money used to repay the £25 billion loan, did I mention the Rock still owes another £8 billion).
*Accounting trickery will be used to show most of the Government money is repaid or converted in bonds or some such mechanism.
*A willing buyer, like Virgin Money, will be found and will pay a sum of money that can then magically be shown to have made a profit, say £1 billion or so for the taxpayer.
Champers all round for the Socialists who have outsmarted the Capitalists!
(N.B Event not to be held in the same room in the treasury where the hidden losses and toxic assets are to be left to quietly rot away, out of sight and mind of the voters)
Showing posts with label UK Labour Government. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UK Labour Government. Show all posts
Wednesday, 10 June 2009
Monday, 8 June 2009
Euro election spin
If the Conservatives are polling 29% in East Renfrewshire then its very bad news for Labour.
UKIP and Tory splitting the vote between them and still managing to come 1st and 2nd.
Lots of Labour talking heads and Meps and MPs and bloggers talking up how in 2004 they suffered a reverse but bounced back.
A good bit of driftwood to clutch at in the stormy political sea. Except it is nonsense.
The 2004 kicking was specifically aimed a hurting Tony Blair. Not Labour.
The public and especially Labour voters wanted to punish him for Iraq.
The Euro elections were a perfect opportunity. Kick the party without doing it any real harm. Send a message loud and clear without fear of letting in the Tories.
This time it is different. Very different.
Despite every protestation that Gordon Brown is solving the economic crisis not enough voters believe that he is. Many believe he caused it. More that he has not done enough to solve it and what he has done has been wasteful and partisan.
If voters have been repeatedly told that there is a load of help for them at JobCentrePlus but there isn't anything more than there would be in normal circumstances, then all those, and other, promises appear false.
Labour ministers and activists who are expecting a big bounce back are deluded. Of course there will be a boost, but on these figures there is no possible recovery.
Hoping something may turn up is ridiculous. Something might, but it might also get worse.
The economy might improve but it might not. And the normal travails of politics will continue.
Dangerous dogs, gang crime, flooding or a doctor refusing a minister access to a hospital because
of some funding issue, or something. These stories occur all the time. They all wear down an incumbent. Labour could not allow even one more "Baby P" story to break, yet is entirely powerless to prevent them.
The Tories, in their darkest days, did not think that they would become the third party of politics. As it stands Labour must give serious consideration to becoming the Fourth.
Wednesday, 3 June 2009
Defending Ed Balls for Chancellor..
In 2007 Ed Balls was an outside bet to be made Chancellor of the Exchequer in the new government of all the talents. A massive promotion for the most junior of Treasury Ministers . But Balls had long been a loyal apparatchik to the great helmsman.
Commentators thought he would be a disaster. Despite being a better economist and a better politician than Darling, he suffered the exact same lack of communication and lack of empathy and personal skills and boorishness that afflicted his master. He also possessed the same tribalism, bias, partisan party loyalty and above all arrogance. The city thought little of him.
John Rentoul at the Independent, almost alone,wrote that Balls should be Chancellor. Iain Dale had a nice line on Rentoul's piece.
" Rentoul comes up with all sorts of historical justifications for it, all sorts of quotes praising Mr Balls and meets all the objections to him head on, bar one. And that is that Ed Balls is, well, a bit rubbish."
It was rumoured that it was Balls/Cooper who were pushing Gordon Brown to call the earliest of early elections. They would capitalise on a Tory government in disarray, a honeymoon period, the defeat of the Blairites, the removal of Blair himself and gaining from a big bounce in the polls.
In the end it proved a poor decision that began the demise of Brown.
However this should not detract from the fact that Ed Balls was right. Brown should have called an election. It would have headed off a lot of the problems he faces today.
Balls understands strategy.
Balls has developed. He has powerful contacts. Look at how little his own second home claims have featured. The Mackay/Kirkbrides hounded from office. Balls/Cooper barely rates a mention. That is not an accident. Its contacts. The Times ran "ED BALLS, the schools secretary, used Damian McBride,to smear ministerial rivals and advance his own ambitions," Anyone remember? Did it harm him? Ed Balls has that political savvy.
As the schools minister he said sorry for baby P, way, way in advance and at odds with the PM. Minutes before at PMQ's Cameron was actually flinging papers in anger at Brown for his lack of human feeling over the death of the child. Gordon Brown wouldn't say sorry. He accused Cameron of making political capital from the death. The Prime minister gave one of his worst ever, slab faced, boring, robotic, unsympathetic readings of a prepared statement. {youtube pmq's 12/11/08}.
Ed Balls has said sorry many times. And said it with enough contition for it sound genuine.
Ed Balls has not had much success as Schools Minister. The Sats for 14 years olds disaster. The pointless "parenting contracts" , the lack of funding for 17, 18 years olds staying in school. "So What?" The list is long, the successes few, the failures many.
But Ed Balls is a political animal in the same mould, from the same streets as Brown, McBride, Watson and Campbell.. At this time, at the end of this government, this is probably what Brown needs. He has lost his street bruisers. His whips aren't whipping. McBride has gone.Tom watson is going. He needs a powerful brawler. Someone who knows that if the ship sinks, then he sinks with it. Politically its just the right thing to do. Brown's enemies are plotting. Upsetting Blairites and backbenchers is hardly a problem now. Its scorched earth time. Alistair Darling finally defies the PM at the last budget and said NO." No, there is no more money. No more money for 20 years!"Ed Balls may not be so worried about finding some stimulus money and the Prime Minister has an opportunity to tip Mr Darling into a face saving, "reward for a tough job" position at the recently vacant Home Office.
In the Prime Minister's words,
"Its the right thing to do."
In the Prime Minister's words,
"Its the right thing to do."
Well the right thing for him. If its right for the country though...?
Friday, 20 March 2009
Northern Wreck update: Government unfit to run whelk stall
This story is covered in detail elsewhere. However, it is worth noting that £80 million in fees to clever consultants did not stop the Government signing up to a fantasy business plan - house prices to drop 5% over 3 years - really sticks out. As does allowing another £800 million of 125% mortgages after March 2008.
Whatever the case for nationalisation due to financial collapse in banks, this just shows yet again that the UK Government cannot run private companies. It may well be that due to losses Lloyds, RBS and Barclay's do end up fully naitionalised, but it will not end well if they do.
The Treasury is not full of highly intelligent super-humans who can run everything, as Gordon Brown wold like to believe. it seems the opposite is nearer the truth.
We said close NR when it went bust, it was the wisest strategy at the time and remains so to this day. saving Northern Wreck has been a total waste of money
Whatever the case for nationalisation due to financial collapse in banks, this just shows yet again that the UK Government cannot run private companies. It may well be that due to losses Lloyds, RBS and Barclay's do end up fully naitionalised, but it will not end well if they do.
The Treasury is not full of highly intelligent super-humans who can run everything, as Gordon Brown wold like to believe. it seems the opposite is nearer the truth.
We said close NR when it went bust, it was the wisest strategy at the time and remains so to this day. saving Northern Wreck has been a total waste of money
Tuesday, 24 February 2009
Northern Wreck rides again
Covered in depth elsewhere I know, but the sums mentioned just do not add up and I have not seen too much coverage of that. Wreck received a loan of £27 billion upon nationalisation, then it has received a further payment of £3 billion as I understand, plus another of £2 billion which has been hidden as an equity loan.
In return the Wreck has repaid £18 billion of the loan; benefit to the taxpayer but not the mortgage market the Government has now realised (screw the market I say, it needs to fall, but that is for another post)
It has also made a loss of £1.4 billion this year.
So, Wreck still has just under £9 billion of our money, £3 billion of which I understand is really accounted for as good will impairment and so gone forever. Wreck may have lost £1.4 billion, but the taxpayer has really lost £3 billion.
Now we are going to pump another £5 billion in for mortgages of up to 90% - given even the average consensus is for house prices to decline 12% this year, then any money lent at 90% will have to be accounted as a loss in the short-term. More capital will then have to be put in to balance the books.
Hence Northern Wreck is still on course to cost us up to another £15 billion in losses, having already accounted for £3 billion. Plus more money put into it in the future is guaranteed by this 'business plan.'
It is a disaster, the nationalisation of it was a disaster as I said at the time, the new policy of subsidising a falling house market is utterly without merit.
Why are the people doing this not being held to account? Why are the mainstream media not seeing the insanity and wanton wasting of billion in these ill-thought out measures?
Wednesday, 10 December 2008
Bad News, Darling
The Pre-Budget Report seems a long time ago even now. The UK Government promised to spend our way out of recession, pushing annual government debt to 8% next year (EU guidelines are for 3%, crazy says EU's Trichet).
This huge spending boom and a set of interest rate cuts would see of the worst of the recession (and set the stage for a 2009 election?).
Here we are, not quite a month later and the latest economic forecasts have the economy shrinking at 1% or more in Q4 2009. Why is this so bad; well Darling, my beloved badger of a Chancellor, had said growth for the UK would be .75% for 2009. Well, so far it looks like this:
Q1 at .3%
Q2 at 0%
Q3 at -.3%
Q4 at likely -1%.
Add those up (there are some technical issues that mean this does not quite work, but the gist is near enough) and you get to -1.3%.
That is a huge variance to .75%. It is over 200 basis points out. Each of those is a fall in tax revenue and means more borrowing for the Government.
And so, we will see whether the fiscal stimulus works by mid-2009. The issue is that even if it does, the Government's borrowing forecasts are already shot and we will be even more in debt next year that they planned for. Despite this Brown and Darling criticise the Tories for suggesting we live vaguely within our means. Appalling.
Thursday, 4 December 2008
Brown's Mortgage Giveaway
The media are generally in favour of this new wheeze, as are the usual suspects like Vince Cable. My gut reaction says it is a bad thing when all people such as these agree,
The for margaret beckett to say it will only help 9,000 families at best is akin to a huge backtrack; classic New Labour spin; big announcement, no follow-through.
However, once again King Gordon is helping everyone but the diligent. The idea is for the Government to gaurantee loans of up to £400k for people who lose jobs and can't make repayments.
But who says they could ever make the repayments? The law of unintended consequences looms large.
The buyer of a Northern Wreck 'Together' 125% whopper can see some nice chinks of light here. Already badly in negative equity, he now gets 2 years to live in his house. At the end he owes even more and the value of the house is lower, perhaps under 50% equity by then. So the bank forecloses and he is turfed out to bankruptcy; but he has had 2 more years of living beyond his means and the government has further subsidised the banks, lost even more money and allowed their books to be cooked further for longer. Finally, as any fule know the market cannot adjust to lower prices as the market is being artificially supported.
Which banks will sign up - well the ones Gordon already owns for sure. Sociaism is pervasive in these dark times.
No doubt people want an alternative; we had a tried and tested one, mortgage interest tax relief...no chance of that from a socialist government...a tax cut! pah!
Monday, 1 December 2008
They don't know what they're doing: Bank Lending
There has been much Press coverage over the weekend of pressure being put by Government onto the UK banks to encourage them to lend to small businesses. Peter Mandelson has styled himself a business champion (communists always do that, don't they?). Other ministers are 'cracking the whip' etc. Also there is speculation, probably true, that there will be a Banking Act in the Queen's Speech that will enforce banks to lend to smaller businesses.
And yet, for all that, Banks have been lending to small businesses. In fact, according to the British Bankers Association, £1 billion more than last year in the last quarter.
And this is despite the Banks being in total financial hock to either the Government or Foreign Sovereign Wealth Funds. For example, RBS has to pay back the Government preference shares at 14%, can't pay its executives what it likes and can't pay shareholders a dividend. Therefore the management rightly want it to be very cash generative to get rid of these onerous conditions.
That the new CEO, Hester, has decided to follow the Government mantra on mortgage repossessions and small business lending, reflects the 'secret' calls from The Prince of Darkness. After all, he owns 58% of RBS now and can call the tune.
My prediction is for a very difficult time ahead, now that the Government has its sticky mitts on the banks, it will interfere. And given that Government ministers know nothing about economics, incentives etc. it will be bad news all round. As a result many more small businesses will go bust and pension funds will suffer from low share prices and dividend payments.
Thanks, Gordon!
Tuesday, 18 November 2008
Do As We Say Government
Our embattled government, currently being given a bizarre free ride in the media, continues to act in an authoritarian and cynical manner;
- At the weekened, the hystercial reaction to George Osborne was a sign of massive tension within the Government. The PM, Chancellor and several ministers were put out to slate the Tory statement of the obvious.
- Today, the Chancellor has dismissed the claims that HBOS could remain independent. He has unilaterally withdrawn any potential support for the Bank outside of the current Lloyds merger, as agreed by Gordon Brown. The show must go on as directed with no deviations allowed
You won't here this from the housing minister. Next week the Government will announce more borrowing to spend our way out of a debt crisis. The insanity continues and I am at a loss as to why the media either cannot grasp this or are happy to see the current Government take little flak for its appalling economic mismanagement.
- At the weekened, the hystercial reaction to George Osborne was a sign of massive tension within the Government. The PM, Chancellor and several ministers were put out to slate the Tory statement of the obvious.
- Today, the Chancellor has dismissed the claims that HBOS could remain independent. He has unilaterally withdrawn any potential support for the Bank outside of the current Lloyds merger, as agreed by Gordon Brown. The show must go on as directed with no deviations allowed
- Next week, a Labour Government who have raised taxes for11 years are to announce tax cuts to stimulate the economy. This in itself it ideologically, morally and fiscally wrong. Labour know it, bu they have no clothes. No doubt they will attack the Tories for opposing them. This is real George Orwell Doublethink territory.
- Finally today and crucially the economic news is still very bad, inflation has fallen by 0.7% and the markets continue to tick down anyway. Worse, rents are falling as demand for housing dries up. House prices cannot find a new level with rents still falling - so expect a much further fall in house prices next year. Current predictions of 15% are laughable. it is quite possible top to bottom average fall will be nearly 50%; that is 30% more from here.You won't here this from the housing minister. Next week the Government will announce more borrowing to spend our way out of a debt crisis. The insanity continues and I am at a loss as to why the media either cannot grasp this or are happy to see the current Government take little flak for its appalling economic mismanagement.
Thursday, 13 November 2008
U-Turn if you want to.. Post office card account
Another one for Mr Drew's U-turn list
Post Office have retained the benefits card and will surely cheer the 4.5 million users of the account. It will also cheer MPs who have been receiving around a 1000 letters each demanding that the POCA card stay where it is. As recently as this Monday 99% of people in the know expected the card to go to a rival bidder.
Quite why it didn't will probably remain shrouded in mist until a FOI can be obtained, but Mr Mandelson seems heavily involved. Who leaked the leaked letter I wonder?
The tender process {which Ireland simply said was unnecessary,went to the high court in the EU and then won their case} has been abandoned. Is this to do with compensation as no 'winner' was announced?
Anyway,the government has finally and after much much dithering done the right thing for small business, the rural economies and their own election prospects. Pitching some 5 million angry pensioners, and a further unknown quantity of outraged voters into the enemies camp is no way to prepare for election.
Expect the vote losing vehicle excise duty increase, announced last budget, to be U-Turned in the very near future too.
Saturday, 8 November 2008
Banks still a problem
Peston is reporting that there is trouble at Mill re the HBOS merger. Many HBOS ex-employees with shareholdings are aghast at the terms of the Lloyds deal. Sir Peter Burt,left, has form for this too. Earlier this year he was saying we should suspend accounting standards to help his old bank.
Well, good luck to them. Brown backed LLoyds to merge with them and the Government, slowly getting back some form of grip on events, is not going to get taken down on this. HBOS was in a terrible financial position and would not exist as an organisation today were it not for taxpayer support. The same cannot be said of Lloyds.
For all this though, the banks are still a huge cause of pain in the economy. Not lending money as they should, recalling loans and raising rates where they can on customers.
The policy of reviewing their books by the treasury and ordering them to take taxypayer support has still not worked. Libor is going down but is still high. The market are still prone to huge falls on any given day on the slightest bad news (and bounces too, as in all bear markets).
So, the Treasury plan is not working, interest rate drops look desperate. The Government, BOE and Treasury (..and FSA?) are still all flailing; and now they have hung out their credibility.
Expect more bad news until a more coherent plan is put together. The traditional muddling through has only stopped us being engulfed in the quick-sand, we are not free yet.
PS still on hols, back at the end of next week.
Friday, 7 November 2008
Boing Boing Brown wins in Glenrothes
Labour win Glenrothes. A very good result for the Prime Minister with a Labour vote of 19,946 to the SNP's 13,209. A 6737 hold.Pretty amazing.
SNP struggling to put a positive spin on the result after predicting a win here.
That Iceland quote has come back to haunt Mr Salmond. He suggested that Scotland could join Iceland, Ireland and Scandinavia in an "arc of prosperity". That provoked a scathing retort from the Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy who claimed that it would have been an "arc of insolvency". Well quite.
That and some scaremongering over care for the elderly seem to have done the SNP in.
Oh, and a 1.5% interest rate cut probably didn't hurt {as the Labour candidate mentioned in his victory speech}
So well done Sarah.
Odds shortening on Mr Drew's prediction for an early election?
Thursday, 30 October 2008
"I see no HIPS?"
Pondering Mr Drew's post below on the likelihood of a snap election, and the comments, I can't quite believe he will do it.
In the days of the Battleships, when the Royal Navy ruled the waves, officers equipped their wardrooms with plants, chairs , tables, bars, and whatever little luxuries they could afford. A ship was judged by other sailors on the splendour of its senior mens quarters.
But, just before battle all the wood paneling and wardroom sofas and stuffed chairs, mess tables mirrors , carpets, paintings, sports equipment and trophies was disposed of, over the stern. Plus food, the paint, cleaning equipment, flammable material of any kind, sometimes even the crockery and utensils for 1200 souls would all be thrown over the side.
This was war. When battle was coming and the phrase "Clear the Decks" wasn't just to have a good working space. It was to prevent unnecessary casualties from shrapnel, wood splinters and flying pots, plates and pans. If you lost the battle the whole ship was gone, so what price a few cocktail cabinets?
Ships that had spent their peacetime winning awards for the pristine paintwork { the paint often paid for by the captain himself as war office supplies were so meager}, were suddenly painted a universal dull gunmetal grey for war.
This is what's occurring. Probably not a snap election but a preparation for war.
So the likes of 'family friendly flexitime' goes over the side with the gramophone and "700 new armoured vehicles for the troops" comes up the ammunition hoists.
Deception tactics like the high speed rail links between London and Birmingham, that will never be completed inside of 20 years, suddenly get airtime to take heat out of the Tory plans for a high speed link.
But the Tories need to understand that Labour is serious. Mr Brown, like a good admiral, cares only for winning the battle.He is prepared to take the Tories on. And preparing to win at any price. Captain Cambell and Commander Mandelson have already been taken off the reserve list and given a command. That means even the most prized policy and deeply held socialist beliefs are not exempt from being discarded. See Mr Drew's list below for a sample of the already abandoned. So the Unions, Afghanistan, America, Lisbon, SATS, Scottish Labour parties concerns,PFI, tagging offenders or Student Loans, Public sector pensions, green energy, equality and diversity laws, immigration, lone parents and his own reputation for prudence can all go overboard with the expensive paneling if Mr Brown feels that they will not be needed, will be a diversion or may cause him damage come election time.
Cameron's Tories still seem to be hanging on to cherished policies like the fuel escalator or double the number of single rooms in hospitals. Maybe the Tories need to stop sitting around in the beautiful teak lawnchairs on the aft deck sipping gin and tonics and prepare to go to action stations dumping any clutter, dead weight, ballast, hazardous items or unnecessary policies or people over the side and get their "A" team on the bridge right now.
Because a big and bloody battle is coming, and Admiral Gordon is taking no prisoners.
Thursday, 16 October 2008
Labour will make it worse
Robert Peston writes on his blog today that, according ot his sources (HM Treasury) the government is very panicked by the less than stunning impact of Jonah Brown's plan to save the world.
Some people may have said as much. However, the global situation has many problems that are going to take years to sort out and a heavy recession is inevitable. The success of the banking bailout is that we will NOT have a DEPRESSION. Sometimes success is the lesser of two evils.
One way to burden us through recession is through excessive Government spending. This is Keynes worst advice. It never worked in the US in the 1930's - GDP falls, Share prices and unemployment all stayed at around the same levels until the early 1940's. FDR's great Keynesian experiment was a failure. Why?
Because government's do not spend the money wisely. They buy helicopters that cannot fly and bridges to nowhere. Yet to do this they borrow from the future and maintain high taxes that increase the mis-allocation of scarce capital. I don't advocate huge spending cuts which traumatises the situation, but a big planfor public programmes is not the answer.
If Labour do this, they will undo the relative success they have had in re-capitalising the banks.
Monday, 13 October 2008
Brown gives banks a Red Card
Yes, in the end, he just had to play politics. The trumpeted bail out will be a disaster in the long-term for Labour. The manadarins at the weekend clearly got carried away with the tough talk.
RBS and HBOS are hobbled and effectively nationalised, what that means for shareholders we don't know yet in truth (shares crashing this morning...). Barclays and LLoyds have been strong armed despite protesting their innocence, at least Barclay's seems to have escaped the injection of direct Government funds.
Now RBS and HBOS are set to play to the Labour tune, more money for household lending etc. As we all know, once the Government starts interfering it cannot help itself. Beauracracy just feeds on itself.
Now Gordon is in his element, the banks have been humbled at the taxpayer expense. What is odd is that the Government seems keen to have, er, 'gold-plated' (appropriate for Brown) the demands to make sure both RBS and HBOS ended with over 50% Government shareholding.
I am all for the re-capitalisation of the banks, it was our only option. But the Government dithering caused huge share price falls and now the new issues are at such a level that the Government becomes the biggest shareholder and dictates policy. In fact, the step to full nationalisation is a tiny one from here...
This is 70's command economy time; Mr. Brown can seem strong and powerful. However, we all know where the 1970's command economy led to.
A better solution over the weekend would have been to work with industry to enable the comanies to survive in rude health rather than to get tough with taxpayers money. The Left don't think like that though, bullying comes to naturally to them.
Sunday, 5 October 2008
UK Brown re-shuffle reaction
...one small point to note, the only person who was remotely qualified to be in the Treasury team, Liam Byrne, has been moved to the Cabinet office and seemingly not been replaced.
Good to see the commitment to the economy in these dark times....
Good to see the commitment to the economy in these dark times....
Sunday, 28 September 2008
All hail the US Cavalry
Many good and sensible people in the US realise the US bailout is a terrible deal for US taxpayers. Nouriel Roubini, previously seen as a nut job and now recognised a very prescient, has a great post showing how there are many ways to tackle a systemic banking crisis.
What the US is doing is a very expensive way and one that saves shareholders over taxpayers ultimately. Our own problems with recognising what is and is not a systemic crisis (B&B, Northern Wreck) with our sporadic and random government interventions (see HBOS, see BOE massive money market operations).
However, for UK taxpayers, what a massive break! If only are stupid Government can keep itself quiet for a few minutes. The US will bail out RBS, Barclay's and HSBC - the last of our real worries (hedge funds and OE firms can go bust without too much effect on non-stock market participants).
With this maybe Robert Peston will be right and there will be no more banking failures in the UK. This is good news, as the recession we are entering and the housing market crash will be pain enough for the next few years as it is.
Sadly, my hunch is that Gordon Brown will want to 'do something' and UK taxpayers will get shafted like those in the US.
Saturday, 27 September 2008
Bradford & Bingley 'rescue'
The line has to be drawn; this is a small UK lender. There will be no global impact of B&B going bust.
Let someone buy the good bits (i.e. the deposits) and anyone can get the mortgage book on the cheap, which should make up for the default ratio. The administrators can easily sort this out.
Then the rest can be liquidated, shareholders, creditors and bondholders losing out.
Sadly, my hunch is that it may be rolled into Northern Wreck....
SUNDAY UPDATE: So it has come to pass. B&B will be rolled into Northern Wreck. Watching David Cameron on Andrew Marr this morning the Tories have a better plan than the current Government in terms of re-doing the powers of the Bank of England. However, the essential point remains that there is no need for the country to 'save B&B.'
Where is the systemic risk from this relatively small provider going down?
The Government have a taste of nationalisation now and no doubt will be singing the red flag in the commons again when they next get a chance.
Let someone buy the good bits (i.e. the deposits) and anyone can get the mortgage book on the cheap, which should make up for the default ratio. The administrators can easily sort this out.
Then the rest can be liquidated, shareholders, creditors and bondholders losing out.
Sadly, my hunch is that it may be rolled into Northern Wreck....
SUNDAY UPDATE: So it has come to pass. B&B will be rolled into Northern Wreck. Watching David Cameron on Andrew Marr this morning the Tories have a better plan than the current Government in terms of re-doing the powers of the Bank of England. However, the essential point remains that there is no need for the country to 'save B&B.'
Where is the systemic risk from this relatively small provider going down?
The Government have a taste of nationalisation now and no doubt will be singing the red flag in the commons again when they next get a chance.
Tuesday, 2 September 2008
Housing boom to flop in 3 easy steps
Well, the Government's re-launch started today with a real lemon. Not just a bad idea that won't help many people, but one that has actually been tried before and found wanting, as Chris Dillow spells out here.
Not only are Labour copying Norman Lamont, a man who they love so much they are always going on about David Cameron advising him about Black Wednesday, but they are copying one of his worst ideas.
So, on one level this is all David Cameron's idea if we follow Labour logic on their description of Black Wednesday. I look forward to them ascribing their insipiration to him at the next PMQ's.
The other pieces thrown in, helping the desperate few at the bottom, OK but really not buying you that many votes is it? 6,000. They need millions when they are this far behind in the polls.
And bringing forward spending for social housing, this has all the hallmarks of another PFI-brained scheme where the Government thinks it is so clever it can beat the market and make a profit whilst advancing the cause of social justice. We'll see here how the market develops over the next year or so...
Not only are Labour copying Norman Lamont, a man who they love so much they are always going on about David Cameron advising him about Black Wednesday, but they are copying one of his worst ideas.
So, on one level this is all David Cameron's idea if we follow Labour logic on their description of Black Wednesday. I look forward to them ascribing their insipiration to him at the next PMQ's.
The other pieces thrown in, helping the desperate few at the bottom, OK but really not buying you that many votes is it? 6,000. They need millions when they are this far behind in the polls.
And bringing forward spending for social housing, this has all the hallmarks of another PFI-brained scheme where the Government thinks it is so clever it can beat the market and make a profit whilst advancing the cause of social justice. We'll see here how the market develops over the next year or so...
Thursday, 29 May 2008
Dr. Frasier Blame
"Welcome back. This is Dr Failure Blame...
AND I'M LISTENING."
"Well It's 4 am, so a big shout to all you Truckers out there. We were talking about insomnia. I too suffer from this. Often I don't sleep much at all. And when I awake, I feel pain. Your pain. This is caused by getting a great kick in the ... Ahh Roz, a caller on line 2.
Hello Dave from Burlington. I'm listening."
"Hello Dr Blame. I can't sleep either. Every day just gets better and better for me. My job is going really well at the moment and I've never been more popular. I've had some big successes at work recently and just can't believe my luck. This other guy just keeps messing up big time. He and his team might get fired any day now, so I'm likely to be up for promotion to CEO soon. Home is great too."
"That's great Dave. So what's the problem?"
"Nothing really, I just wanted to tell someone. Bye"
"Thanks Dave.. Ok, after the news ...
Record levels of debt, Living beyond your means, Post office closures, War in Iraq, MP's expenses, New rates of Vehicle excise duty, 42 day detention orders, Teenage knife murders, Council Tax, The recent By Election, Over regulation, The failure of CCTV to deter crime, Binge drinking and hospital admissions, Polyclinics, Cherie Blair's book, Wind Farms, Proposed 2p fuel duty increase, The Lisbon treaty, Private pensions, Public sector borrowing, Northern Rock nationalisation, Record levels of taxation, Inflation, Nuclear Power decommissioning costs, Donations to political parties, Railway privatisation, Foot and Mouth leaked from a government laboratory, Police Pay settlement, missing data disks, The Olympics Budget, Trident, Cash for Honours, Uncertainty over the Future Lynx Helicopter program, Rubbish Bin collections, Fuel protesters, Defra, The 10p tax u-turn, Stamp duty and a party funding crisis are all Topics we WON'T be discussing.
I do know a lot about these topics but I may not an expert in all of them. If you are having concerns with any of these issues just remember.... This is Dr Failure Blame, and I'm listening."
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