Third Generation Mars

The former Soviet Union attempted to carry out the two Phobos probes of mars and its environment in 1988 and 1989. In both cases the probes did manage to arrive safely in Mars orbit and begin their scientific programs.

THE PHOBOS PROGRAM

The Soviet interest in publicizing and sharing data from the VEGA mission also prevails for the Phobos project designed to send two probes to Phobos, one of the two moons of Mars. Many Soviet papers have been presented at international meetings over the past several years on the details of this project, and although the probes were launched in the summer of 1988, which is beyond the purview of this report, it would be a glaring oversight to leave them out.

As recounted in the historical summary, the Soviets have been plagued by failures at Mars and at the end of 1988 when this report was being completed, it seems that the bad luck is still haunting them. One of the two probes, Phobos 1, was declared dead in October, and Phobos 2 is experiencing problems. Unless other­ wise indicated, the following discussion refers only to Phobos 2, which is scheduled to reach Mars on January 29, 1989. At that time, the world will know whether or not the Soviet luck has final­ ly changed. [Note: In March, 1989, contact with Phobos 2 was lost.] The Phobos program involves even more international participa­ tion than VEGA, and with improved relations between the super­powers, U.S. involvement is being openly discussed by both sides. The United States again is assisting in tracking the probes, specifi­cally the Phobos landers. Other cooperative experiments, related to studies of the Sun, were to have been conducted with equipment on Phobos 1 and the U.S. Solar Maximum Mission satellite, but the loss of Phobos 1 cancelled those plans. Austria, Bulgaria, Ireland, Hungary, East Germany, Poland, West Germany, Finland, France, Czechoslovakia, Switzerland, Sweden, and the European Space Agency are all participating in the Phobos program.

The Phobos Spacecraft

The Phobos spacecraft were designed by the Babakin Institute, with IKI serving as program manager. The three-axis stabilized spacecraft each weigh 6,220 kg 45 and cost 300 million rubles. 46 A variety of instruments are carried for studies enroute to Mars, of Mars itself, and of Phobos. The instrument complement was almost identical on Phobos 1 and Phobos 2, but some experiments were specific to the probe. Unfortunately, the Terek x-ray telescope for studying solar fluctuations was only on Phobos 1, as was the SUFR experiment to study ultraviolet solar radiation. One other instru­ ment, the Soviet IPNM experiment to study neutron radiation from the surface of Phobos, was also only on Phobos I. 47 Figure 5 shows the Phobos spacecraft design.

Two cosmic ray detectors are aboard. The LET, developed by Hungary, France, West Germany and the Soviet Union, will study cosmic rays in the 0.9-75 Megaelectronvolt (MeV) range, while SLED, built by Hungary, West Germany and the Soviet Union, will study low energy particles, including 20-140 kiloelectronvolt (keV) electrons, 20 keV-3.4 MeV protons, and 0.1-3.4 MeV helium nuclei. 48

High resolution (6 centimeter) television pictures will be taken of Mars and Phobos using a three-channel television system called Fregat. The system weighs 50 kg 49 and was developed with the co­ operation of Bulgaria and East Germany. 50 (Reports at the end of 1988 indicated that this was one of the Phobos 2 instruments that was experiencing problems.) 51

There is a combination radiometer with angular resolution 30', photometer with angular resolution 16', and infrared spectrometer with angular resolution of 12'. The spectral subbands are divided into 10 parts for the photometer, 128 for the spectrometer, and 6 to the Sun or the radiometer. The radiometric • and photometric instruments will provide data which will be used to make surface temperature maps of Mars and Phobos, and for Mars will include a search for permafrost regions. Data from a gamma spectrometer will analyze the basic rock-forming elements and natural radioactive elements. The atmosphere and ionosphere of Mars will be investigated, again with French participation, looking for information on the vertical distribution of the concentration of ozone, water vapor, molecular oxygen and dust; of vertical temperature and pressure profiles; of seasonal, diurnal and local variations in atmospheric parameters; and of the ratio of deuterium to hydrogen to examine the question of why liquid water disappeared from the planet's surface. Some of the atmospheric studies will be made using pulsed radiosondes. An East German magnetometer called the FGMM-1 (Flux Gate Mag­netometer Mars-1) and weighing 4 kg will study Mars' and Phobos' magnetic fields, if any. 52

There are specialized instruments for studying Phobos which are varied and scientifically exciting, as is the flight profile the Soviets will use to study the moon. When it reaches Mars in late January 1989, Phobos 2 will enter a very elliptical orbit around Mars and then gradually maneuver into a circular "observation" orbit at an altitude of 6,330 km. The spacecraft will spend approximately 30 days in this orbit observing Mars and Phobos, and then move into an orbit that is synchronous with Phobos (altitude approximately 6,000 km) and remain there for up to 90 days. 53 During the latter period, the probe will move into position and hover over Phobos at an altitude of only 50 meters for 15-20 minutes. Its speed will be 2- 5 meters per second. The probe's trajectory for this stage of the program is shown in figure 6.

The Phobos-specific experiments include a 70 kg laser 54 called Lima-D with an energy of 1 Joule that will be aimed at a small section of the surface of Phobos (1 square millimeter) for 10-8 second. 55 The energy density at that spot will be more than 10 milliwatts. The laser has a beam wavelength of 1.06 microns and a pulse rate of 0.1-0.2 Hertz. 56 The laser will vaporize the surface material and a mass spectrometer on the spacecraft then will de­ termine the chemical composition of the particles thrown in its di­ rection. The reflectron was designed by Bulgaria; East Germany made the optical components; Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union built the range-finding system and a special lens for focusing the ray; and West Germany provided the computers for onboard proc­essing of information. 57 Between 150 and 200 "shots" will be taken at Phobos.

Phobos 2 also has an ion gun, called Dion, that will accelerate krypton ions to two-three keV to strike secondary ions on the sur­ face which will be registered by the spacecraft's mass spectrometer. Dion weighs 18 kg and was built by Austria, France and the Soviet Union. 58

There is a radar called GRUNT for investigating Phobos' inter­ nal structure. The 35 kg experiment can probe the surface of Phobos to a depth of 2 meters, 59 but one Western report said that this was only on Phobos I. 60

Phobos 2 carries two Phobos landing probes. One is a "hopper" that can move around the surface of the tiny moon, while the other, called the LAS, will be fixed to the surface to make longer term studies. The hopper will move along the surface of the moon by using a pushing device to "hop" 20 meters at a time. One instru­ment on the lander will study the strength, adhesion, compressibil­ ity and viscosity of the soil.

The LAS will be held in place by a probe sunk by a pyrotechnic charge. Then solar panels will be unfurled to provide electricity, and the instrument platform will lift itself 80 centimeters above the surface. 61 The LAS has six experiments: a radio beacon to be used for determining the parameters of Phobos' motion around Mars and the motion of Mars in the solar system; a seismometer to record the noise caused by the gravitational pull of Mars, the ther­mal expansion of the rock during the diurnal cycle, and the impact of meteorites; an x-ray fluorescence spectrometer for determining chemical composition of the surface; a system of Razrez sensors housed in a penetrometer for studying physicomechanical proper­ ties; and a panoramic television system. 62 The LAS was built by Hungary, France, West Germany and the Soviet Union and carries 30 kg of scientific equipment.

The Journey to Mars and the Loss of Phobos 1

Phobos 1 was launched with a Proton launch vehicle from the Tyuratam launch site on July 7, 1988. The Soviets invited a large contingent of Western observers to see the launch, and some stayed for the launch of Phobos 2 on July 12. Reflecting the greater com­ mercial nature of the Soviet space program, the Proton booster for Phobos 2, which was still in the assembly area at the time of the Phobos 1 launch, was covered with advertisements from two Euro­ pean firms, neither of them space related (Voest Alpine, an Austri­ an engineering firm, and Danieli, an Italian firm that provides steel factories to the Soviet Union). 63

On August 31, 1988, a ground controller sent an incorrect com­ mand to Phobos 1, inadvertently ordering it to turn off its attitude control system. 64 The Soviets became aware of the problem on Sep­ tember 1 when they tried to reestablish routine communications with the spacecraft. Reviewing the most recent commands that had been sent, they discovered the controller's mistake. Since communi­ cations were lost, scientists can only speculate as to exactly what happened after the mistaken command was received by Phobos 1, but the consensus is that having lost its correct orientation, it began tumbling and the solar panels were no longer pointed to­ wards the Sun. Thus they could not be recharged and, after a short period of time, died.

The Soviets formally announced the difficulties with Phobos 1 on September 9. 65 In mid-October, they stated that they had given up all hope of reestablishing contact with the probe after determining there was no hope of any energy being left in the batteries. 66 Before communications were lost, 140 x-ray images of the Sun had been received. 67

Phobos 2 continued on its intended course and in November the Soviets reported on systems tests, and the tracking of the space­craft by Soviet and American tracking stations. In December, how­ ever, rumors began to circulate in the West that problems had now developed with Phobos 2. On December 29, TASS issued a state­ ment that most of the malfunctions aboard the spacecraft had been repaired, and "the rest won't prevent the research program from being carried out in full." 68 No specifics were given as to what sys­ tems or experiments had malfunctioned, but a report in a U.S. trade magazine quoted Dr. Galeev, now head of IKI, as saying that some of the channels on the television system have failed and only the optical range remains, and difficulties are being experienced with data collection from certain experiments and they "need a little push" to give data. 69

Phobos 2 is scheduled to arrive at Mars on January 29, 1989, and to study Phobos in early April.

future proposals and plans

For the first two and a half decades of spaceflight, the Soviets rarely discussed their space science plans in the West. Launches that failed were given generic Cosmos designations and no an­nouncement was made about their intended purpose, leaving West­ ern analysts the task of discerning their missions from available clues. As discussed under the section on the FASAC report (above), little information was available even from the successful Soviet probes.

The new Soviet policy of glasnost, coupled with the increasing trend towards international participation in space science missions, has changed that situation dramatically. The international involve­ ment makes it virtually impossible for the Soviets to hide failures, and glasnost permits Soviet scientists the freedom to discuss future proposals and plans.

There is a significant difference between a proposal and a plan, however, and perhaps because Western scientists were so unaccustomed to the Soviets discussing their future proposals, there was the assumption on the part of many that the Soviets were talking about concrete mission plans that already had government approv­ al. This is not the case, however, as proven not only by direct Soviet statements, but also by the number of missions first brought up in the 1986-1987 time period that have already changed dra­matically in terms of launch date and mission objective as detailed below.

Considerable concern was expressed by Western space scientists and the media that the Soviets were "taking the lead" in space sci­ ence, especially solar system exploration, by virtue of all the plans they had announced. A comparison of U.S. solar system exploration plans for the rest of the century with Soviet plans is contained in the Executive Summary and will not be repeated here except to emphasize that the United States has sent probes to solar system destinations from Mercury to Uranus, and has three approved pro­ grams for launch in 1989 and 1990. Even if the Soviets successfully completed every project they have proposed through the year 2000, they could not hope to catch up with the data already gained by U.S. probes, and that will likely result from the approved missions.

The tendency to turn every space activity into a race between the superpowers is discouraging, and, in fact, surprising in today's reality of extensive international cooperation in both the U.S. and Soviet programs. The following list of what the Soviets have stated are their proposals and plans for the future simply lays out what the road ahead may be if the Soviet government ultimately ap­ proves these projects. To provide a comparison, a list of missions proposed in NASA's Solar System Exploration Committee 1983 and 1986 reports and the 1988 U.S. National Academy of Sciences 7 volume series on space science in the 21st century would have to be set forth. 70 That is not the objective of this report, however, so only the Soviet proposals are summarized.

Most of the Soviet proposals were described at the October 1987 Moscow Space Future Forum held in connection with the 30th an­ niversary of the launch of Sputnik. The Soviets prepared three papers for that symposium: the first on "near space" which de­ scribes earth orbiting solar-terrestrial physics proposals, the second on solar system exploration (planets and small bodies), and the third on "deep space" which concerns earth orbiting missions for astronomical studies. Except as otherwise noted, the information in this section is from those three unpublished papers. 71

It should be noted that several science missions (Aktivniy, Granat and Gamma-1) were planned for 1988, but none were launched. As recently as April 1988, Dr. Balabanov, a deputy direc­ tor of IKI, referred to the fact that Granat and Gamma-1 would be launched by the end of the year. 72 What problems developed in this launch schedule are unknown, although the fact that Granat's launch would be delayed until 1989 was revealed just one month later by Dr. Sagdeyev. 73

PLANETARY EXPLORATION

One of the three papers at the Moscow Space Future Forum in October 1987 was on planetary exploration, and the lengthy list of proposed missions is summarized below.

The Soviet proposals had been revealed over a period of almost three years. At the 16th Annual Lunar and Planetary Science Con­ ference in Houston, TX., in March 1985, the Soviets gave an unusu­ ally open presentation about future proposals, including several probes to Mars, the Vesta asteroid proposal, arid lunar probes. 91 Two years later, in May 1987, at a meeting sponsored by the Amer­ ican Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics in Pasadena, many of these proposed missions were presented again, some with more specific details.

An extremely important aspect of these papers, however, was the caveat the Soviet authors put on the contents of the lists. At the May 1987 AIAA meeting in Pasadena, the Soviets stressed that no phase of the program they were presenting had yet been approved by the Soviet government. 92 Despite this cautionary statement, one U.S. scientist attending the meeting was quoted as saying that he was "envious" of the Soviet program and that it represented a "re­ markable commitment," while another said the Soviets were "in the process of passing us in solar system exploration." 93 Such com­ ments demonstrate the tendency of some U.S. space scientists to overdramatize the significance of the Soviet proposals. In the paper presented at the October 1987 Space Future Forum, participants were reminded that only the Phobos project was actually under­ way, and that "there are good reasons to believe" the 1994 Mars mission would be included "in the official Soviet program of studies of the solar system." As for the others projects, the Soviets stated: "The destiny of the VESTA project depends greatly on the CNES and ESA decision to create an asteroid module which should be taken in 1988. The capability to implement the other projects is not so evident." (italic added) Thus, when reviewing these proposals, it must be repeatedly stressed that they are just that, proposals, not approved programs.

Mars 1994

As described at the Moscow Space Future Forum, the next mis­ sion to Mars after Phobos would be named Columb (elsewhere the name was listed as Columbus) and was scheduled for a 1992 or 1994 launch. The mission would involve the use of French balloons simi­ lar to those used on the VEGA probes, an orbiter, and a surface rover with a sensor sinking system and soil sampler.

Currently, this mission is referred to simply as "the 1994 Mars mission," and the 1987 paper listed the following as suggested in­ struments for the orbiter, balloon, penetrator, and rover. The orbit­ er would be in polar orbit with a 12 hour period carrying a 1 meter resolution TV system, a gamma spectrometer, a scanning infrared radiometer, a Fourier spectrometer or multiband radiometer for in­frared sounding of the atmosphere, a video spectrometer, two opti­ cal spectrometers (one for atmospheric sounding using the solar and stellar eclipse method, the other for measuring the upper at­mosphere radiation spectrum), a radiometer for mapping water, oxygen and carbon monoxide, a neutral mass spectrometer, an ion mass spectrometer, a magnetometer, a plasma package, and instru­ments for solar oscillation studies and cosmos gamma burst studies.

The balloon would have an active lifetime of 15-50 days covering 100-400 km per day. Suggested experiments included: a panoramic TV camera with one millimeter resolution, a 0.1 meter resolution TV camera for surveying from an altitude of 200 meters, a meteor­ological package, a photometer, and instruments for electromagnet­ic sounding of the subsurface layer; studies of alpha backscattering and x-ray or gamma ray spectrometer; and differential tempera­ ture analysis and analysis of volatiles.

There would be "several" penetrators with a lifetime of 1-4 years and including a seismometer, instruments for soil composition analysis and thermal flux measurements, and a meteorological package.

The rover would have a range of about 300 km and carry a soil sampler to a depth of 3-10 meters. It would also carry a TV system, a gamma spectrometer, a device for analyzing soil volatiles, a microscope for analyzing soil microstructure, a meteorological package and one for electromagnetic soil sounding, a seismic sound­ ing package, and a package for investigating soil samples for bio­ logical activity. The Soviets have said that they are testing a Mar­ tian rover prototype on the Kamchatka Peninsula. 94

At the end of 1988, the Soviets reportedly were considering changing the mission once again, having the orbiter, balloon, and penetrators, but delaying the rover until 1996. 95 Another Western report quoted Soviet scientist Genrish Avanesov as saying that the entire 1994 mission might be delayed until 1996 because although the Soviets were technically capable of doing the mission, "we're not sure it's worth doing" and admitting that "Money is a problem for today for us, too." He emphasized that no official decision had been made on the timing of the mission. 96

Dr. Sagdeyev, who is the mission science director following his resignation from directing IKI, reportedly was stunned by the statements by his colleagues about the possible mission delay, saying that "We were told by the president of the Soviet Academy of Sciences that Mars-94 is an approved mission. He also told [this to] the French, who have now started much work on the balloon portion of the flight. ... I think that it is really a worrisome situa­tion." 97 The potential delay had been voiced by Soviets at a joint U.S./Soviet working group meeting in Washington. The United States has agreed to place a relay transmitter on its Mars Observer spacecraft (to be launched in 1992) to assist in communicating with the balloons. The two countries are discussing other possible coop­eration for the two missions as well.

Future Mars Exploration

The other Mars missions listed in the Space Future Forum paper were a 1996 mission to return a sample of Martian soil to Earth, followed by another sample return mission in 1998, and a long term, long range (1000 km) rover for 2002. At the May 1987 AIAA meeting, the sequence mentioned had been somewhat different. After the 1992/1994 orbiter/lander/balloon mission, the Soviets listed a 1994/1996 mission carrying a larger rover, although they stressed that it was not a definite part of the program at that time. The sample return missions were to follow the large rover. 98 At the May 1987 meeting, both the 1992/1994 and 1994/1996 missions were reported to include sample return devices, although this has not been mentioned since by the Soviets.

In his May 1988 Physics Today article, Dr. Sagdeyev commented that "The likelihood of implementing the mission to Mars in 1994 and the sample return mission before 2000 depends mainly on the development of space technology." He noted the need for a launch vehicle with a high energy upper stage (although he did not men­ tion using the new heavy-lift Energiya launch vehicle, which re­ portedly has been the subject of some controversy in the Soviet space science community), the development of aerobraking technol­ ogies, and "many other problems as well—in particular, the prob­ lem of the Martian soil quarantine on Earth." He concluded that "From our viewpoint, however, it looks like these problems can be solved in the years ahead." 99

At the end of 1988, a Soviet scientist, Vladimir Tarnopolsky, sug­ gested that the United States and Soviet Union each build rovers for coordinated missions (see also the section on U.S./Soviet coop­ eration below). 100 He suggested that a Soviet "pioneer" rover could travel to a new site every day to gather a great deal of information on different locations, and a U.S. rover could then land on one of the safe sites discovered by the Soviet probe to perform more de­ tailed studies. The Soviet rover described by Tarnopolsky would have a mass of 250 kg and travel at 0.2 meters per second on six conical wheels that would be individually powered by a thermal electric generator. It would also have a manipulator arm. To obtain a clear view in front, the Soviets are proposing a kite-mounted camera raising it tens or hundreds of meters into the air, called Skylift. A balloon or a system to pop microcameras into the air are being studied as alternatives. Tarnopolsky conceded that the Sky- lift idea was "close to science fiction" in terms of its novelty. 101

Another proposal that sounds like science fiction was described in February 1987 by Dr. Nikolay Umnov. 102 Called a "hexapod", it would be a rover that could "walk" on the surface of Mars to trans­ port cosmonauts around the planet. The report described a proto­ type being tested at the Machine Engineering Institute of the Soviet Academy of Sciences that was a meter and a half long with six metal legs that could step over obstacles like rocks. The proto­ type could travel at a speed of 10 centimeters a second, but the operational vehicle would travel at 80-100 kilometers per hour, using pneumatic motors. Studies of insects, including the cock­roach, "the most stable of insects," led to the choice of six legs.

References:

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45. Phobos 1 Loss to Change Mars Mission. Aviation Week and Space Technology, Oct. 3, 1988, p. 29.

46. Sotsialisticheskaya Industriya, July 9, 1988, p. 3.

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49. Kidger, p. 275.

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52. Izvestiya, Oct. 7, 1988, p. 5.

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65 TASS, 0922 GMT, Sept. 9, 1988.

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71. Dr. Roald Sagdeyev published on article in the May 1988 issue of Physics Today which sum­marizes many of these programs and proposals.

72. Moscow in English to North America, 2200 GMT, Mar. 31, 1988.

73. Sagdeyev, Roald Z. Soviet Space Science. Physics Today, May 1988. p. 31.

90. Technical details on Radioastron were published in Andreyanov, et al. Astronomicheskiy Zhurnal, Sept.-Oct. 1986. p. 850-855. English translation in JPRS-USP-87-003L, Apr. 9, 1987. p. 8-15.

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92. Smith, Bruce A. Soviet Scientists Present Details of Mars Exploration Program. Aviation Week and Space Technology, May 25, 1987. p. 22.

93. Sawyer, Kathy. Soviets Unveil Plan for Mars Missions. Washington Post, May 26, 1987. p.A16

94. Smith, Bruce A. Soviet Scientists Present Details of Mars Exploration Program. Aviation Week and Space Technology, May 25, 1987. p. 22.

95. Soviets Revise Mars Program; Prepare Mission to Moon. Aviation Week and Space Technol­ ogy. Jan. 2, 1989. p. 39.

96. Space Commerce Bulletin, Dec. 16, 1988, p. 8.

97. Covault, Craig. Perestroika in Space, Science Controversial to Soviet Officials. Aviation Week and Space Technology, Dec. 12, 1988. p. 34-35.

98. Smith, Bruce A. Soviet Scientists Present Details of Mars Exploration Program. Aviation Week and Space Technology, May 24, 1987. p. 2.

89 Sagdeyev, Roald Z., op. cit, p. 37.

100 Soviets Propose Joint Martian Infrastructure. Defense Daily, Dec. 2, 1988. p. 166-167.