Transdniester
Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic

Transnistria, a strip of land with about 470,000 people between Moldova and Ukraine, has been under the control of separatist authorities since a 1992 war with Moldova. the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic is an unrecognized self-proclaimed state on the territory of Moldova. In March 2022, PACE officially recognized Transnistria as a zone of Russian occupation. The Ukrainian military has repeatedly emphasized that Russia geographically does not have the opportunity to strengthen its forces in the "PMR", therefore it will not be able to "open a second front" from there.

At the congress of the so-called deputies of all levels from Transnistria, on 28 February 2024, a request to Moscow regarding the accession of the separatist region to the Russian Federation would be adopted. The statement was made 21 February 2024 by the Transnistrian opponent Ghenadie Ciorba, quoted by INFOTAG. Thus, Ciorba drew attention to the fact that the meeting will take place one day before the address of the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, to the Federal Assembly. The Transnistrian opposition does not rule out that this directive to organize the congress comes from Moscow itself. Ciorba assumes that in the forum of the so-called deputies of all levels of Transnistria, a request would be launched from the inhabitants of the left of the Dniester for the region to join the Russian Federation, and the next day, on February 29, Putin will announce this to the Assembly Federal, which will make the decision to proceed with the request.

But according to Ukrainian intelligence, the deputies of the unrecognized republic do not plan to appeal to Russian President Putin regarding the republic's admission to the federation. Andriy Yusov, the spokesman of the State Government of Ukraine, said this in a comment to "Ukrainian Pravda" . "According to our data, the information that on February 28 the "authorities" of Transnistria will, as it were, ask the Russian Federation to join them in its composition, is currently not confirmed," the intelligence officer said.

The deputy commander of the 3rd OShBr Maksym Zhorin assessed the possibility of "accession" of the so-called Transnistria to Russia. He reminded that Russian troops have been stationed there for a long time. "The possibility of the official "joining" of Transnistria to Rashka is quite real. According to the logic of the Russian Federation, constant escalation is the best way to keep its flock in good shape and prepare for a major war against NATO," the military man wrote on his Telegram channel 22 February 2024. At the same time, he pointed out that Russian troops have been stationed in Transnistria for a long time - they are already a de facto part of the Russian Federation.

The leadership of Transdniester called on Russia to take measures to "protect" the breakaway region from what it said was increasing pressure from Moldova's pro-Western government that amounted to an "economic war." The call was launched during a rare gathering on February 28 in Tiraspol of the separatist region's leadership summoned by separatist leader Vadim Krasnoselski and dubbed the Congress of the Transdniestrian People's Deputies. It followed speculation that Transdniester, whose declaration of independence more than 30 years ago was not recognized by any legitimate state, might officially ask for "unification" with Russia a day ahead of President Vladimir Putin's February 29 annual address to Russian lawmakers. The gathering, however, stopped short of asking that Transdniester become part of the Russian Federation and listed a long litany of complaints addressed first of all to Moscow but also to international organizations about Moldova's alleged pressure and violations of the separatists' rights.

After a series of mysterious attacks destroyed infrastructure in late April 2022 in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria, there were fears that the war is widening beyond Ukraine’s borders. Western intelligence chiefs along with Ukrainian and Moldovan officials believe Russia staged the attacks in order to justify mobilising around 1,500 or so Russian troops permanently based in Transnistria, along with several thousand Transnistrian conscripts. It followed recent comments from a Russian commander saying that the Kremlin’s latest strategy was to try to link Russian troops in the east and south of Ukraine with Russian forces in Transnistria. The comments caused alarm in Moldova, which only had six and a half thousand underequipped soldiers, making it vulnerable to a swift Russian invasion. And like Ukraine, Moldova isn’t a member of the EU or NATO.

The breakaway Transnistria region saw a shocking population fall over the past 30 years, decreasing from 731,000 in 1991 to 306,000 in 2021. There are no countries without people. Throughout history, states have appeared and disappeared. Transnistria's population crises speaks about the validity of its existence as a state. Russia has between 1,500 and 2,000 soldiers in Transnistria, ostensibly as peacekeepers, and the status quo remains one of central Europe's longest "frozen conflicts". The region relies on financial assistance from Russia to survive and Russian troops have been stationed there since the Soviet era.

There are no serious value differences between the population of the unrecognized Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) and the inhabitants of Moldova. Only corrupt officials, smugglers and politicians who make money on gray schemes do not want a peaceful settlement. From an international perspective, Transnistria is one of the poorest regions in Europe and notorious for being a smuggler's paradise on the edge of the European Union.

Transnistria, a region half as big as the Greek island of Crete, is a narrow strip of land along the Dniester River and the border to Ukraine. The self-proclaimed republic separated from Moldova after a military conflict in Moldova. A ceasefire was declared but a frozen conflict has existed since 1992. International diplomatic efforts – recently intensified by Germany – to resolve the conflict have not brought about any changes. Today, about half a million people live in the breakaway republic.

Transnistria is now split more or less into three equal minorities: Ukrainians, Russians, and Moldovans and in some cases have four passports, Ukrainian, Russian, Moldovan, and Romanian. Around half of those who live in Transnistria have Russian citizenship and its government is close to Moscow.

In early 2014 there was some concern about a possible Russian incursion across Ukraine to occupy Transdniester. Ukraine reported up to a thousand saboteurs of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the Russian Defence Ministry had been deployed to unrecognized Transnistria, who, presumably, had been tasked to destabilize Ukraine's south, Odesa region in particular.

They were also said to be developing a scenario of capturing administrative buildings by armed men in civilian clothes to evoke a forcible response of Ukrainian authorities, provoking a border conflict and imposing the state of emergency or martial law. This would break the conduct of early presidential elections in Ukraine, which is one of the main goals of Putin. Military experts also pointed to the vulnerability for defense of southern Ukraine, located between the unrecognized Transnistrian and annexed Crimea.

Russia, however, does not want to accept Transnistria. According to a foreign policy document signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin at the end of November 2016, Russia aims to give Transnistria a special status within Moldova. While Transnistria looks to Moscow, the present pro-West government in Moldova is seeking closer ties with the European Union.