Nagorno-Karabakh / Republic of Artsakh

The president of Armenia's self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Samvel Shahramanyan, signed a decree to dissolve all state institutions from January 1, 2024, Karabakh Armenian authorities said on 28 September 2023.

The Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, also known as the Republic of Artsakh, declared independence from Azerbaijan on January 6, 1992. The Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh intended to reunite with newly independent Armenia. The conflict began in 1988 when the Karabakh Armenians demanded the region be transferred from Soviet Azerbaijan to Soviet Armenia. The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s after the Soviet Union dissolved.

The Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh has de facto independence from Azerbaijan, but its independence is not recognized by any UN member states. The conflict has its origins in the early 20th century. In 1923, the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) was established within the Azerbaijan SSR. Most of the decisions on the transfer of the territories were made under pressure from Stalin.

The Armenian separatist forces in Nagorno-Karabakh on 20 September 2023 agreed to lay down their weapons following Azerbaijan's lightning offensive in the Armenian-majority enclave. Moscow has about 2,000 peacekeepers in the region. They mediated the ceasefire, but didn't intervene to stop Azerbaijan's attacks. The Azerbaijani military had also secured key highlands and routes, putting Armenia at a further disadvantage. Armenia had no choice but to accept this humiliating ceasefire agreement. Negotiations took place on Armenian Independence Day.

In May 2023, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had announced he would recognize Azerbaijan's sovereignty over the region, on the condition that the safety of its residents was guaranteed. So he likely knew Armenia couldn't win another conflict with Azerbaijan.

Russia is bound by a collective security treaty to assist Armenia. However, Moscow's priorities have shifted. Russia doesn't want to upset Azerbaijan and its ally, Turkey, who are increasingly influential. And since most of its troops were fighting in Ukraine, Russia didn't have the resources to help Armenia anyway. So it pivoted from providing military support to mediation. "Furthermore, the relationship between Armenia and Russia has not been great. Moscow expressed displeasure when Armenia conducted joint military exercises with the United States. All this explains why Russia wasn't too eager to help Armenia.

Between Moscow's weakening position in the Caucasus and the West's dependence on hydrocarbons, Azerbaijan had taken advantage of a favorable international context to complete a decades-long mission to control the disputed region. Separated from Armenia and attached to Azerbaijan in 1921 by Stalin, the predominantly Armenian mountainous enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh has been a point of permanent tension between the two former Soviet republics since the collapse of the USSR.

On 19 September 2023, Baku announced the launch of "local-level anti-terrorist activities" in Nagorno-Karabakh aimed at "restoring the constitutional order." Azerbaijan and representatives of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh agreed on a complete cessation of hostilities through the mediation of Russian peacekeepers, the Russian Defense Ministry said on 20 September 2023. "Through the mediation of the command of the Russian peacekeeping contingent, an agreement was reached between the Azerbaijani side and representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh on a complete cessation of hostilities. The implementation of these agreements will be carried out in coordination with the command of the Russian peacekeeping contingent," the ministry said in a statement. The Russian peacekeeping contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh was in contact with both Yerevan and Baku, discussing the prevention of bloodshed in the region, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

Thousands of protesters gathered in central Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, blocking streets and demanding that authorities defend Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. Some clashed with police, who reportedly used stun grenades. A total of 34 people — 16 policemen and 18 civilians — were injured in the clashes. Thousands of Armenian refugees gathered near Stepanakert airport, awaiting evacuation from Karabakh after the capitulation of local authorities. It was obvious that a significant part of the population had no illusions about the security of their existence under Azerbaijani control.

Judging by such a quick surrender, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces were able to inflict a crushing defeat on the Karabakh armed forces, and the Armenian army did not consider it its duty to participate in this war. The draft peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan has been 70% agreed upon, Aliyev’s aide said 20 September 2023. One of Azerbaijan’s demands is the extradition of the Karabakh leadership. Whether Pashinyan would take such a step for the sake of once again delaying a major war was an interesting question.

An agreement was reached on the withdrawal of the remaining units and military personnel of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia from the deployment zone of the Russian peacekeeping contingent and the disbandment and complete disarmament of the armed formations of the “Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army” and the withdrawal of heavy equipment and weapons from the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh with the aim of their speedy disposal.

Issues raised by the Azerbaijani side on reintegration, ensuring the rights and security of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as issues of ensuring the livelihoods of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh within the framework of the Constitution of Azerbaijan, according to the agreement reached, will be discussed at a meeting between representatives of the local Armenian population and representatives of the central authorities of the Republic of Azerbaijan, which will take place in the city of Yevlakh on September 21, 2023 and during subsequent meetings.

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Karabakh – territory which legally belongs to Azerbaijan but is inhabited mainly by Armenians – has been going on for several decades. Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) is a disputed territory that is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. However, most of the territory is governed by the unrecognised Republic of Artsakh. The Republic of Artsakh has been governing most of the territory since the first Nagorno-Karabakh War.

Azerbaijan launched a military operation unexpectedly on 19 September 2023. Armenian Telegram channels reported massive shelling of both Armenian positions on the contact line and the capital of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Stepanakert. Mobile communications and the Internet have practically disappeared in the region. But in the rare videos that are published , air raid sirens and cannonade could be heard. The day before, the NKR agreed to accept humanitarian aid from Azerbaijan and unblock the road from Agdam to Stepanakert, which Baku had been seeking for several months. This was the main demand of Azerbaijan to lift the blockade of the region and open the Lachin corridor - the only road that connects the NKR with Armenia.

Armenia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs called on Russian peacekeeping troops in the Armenian-majority region to intervene and stop what it said was Azerbaijan’s “full-scale aggression” against the local population. Armenia claimed Azerbaijan was behind a months-long humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh after Baku last year blocked the sole road linking the mountainous region with Armenia. It is called the Lachin Corridor, and Russian peacekeepers police it. The Azeri authorities claimed for a long time that this route was being used to smuggle in weapons and mines into the territory that was still under ethnic Armenian control. For Baku the only route to peace is a complete withdrawal of Armenian troops from the area – a condition Armenia refuses to meet.

An hour after the start of the fighting, Baku issued an ultimatum - the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry stated that the only path to peace in the region was the complete withdrawal of the Armenian military from Nagorno-Karabakh and the dissolution of local authorities. In essence, this means the liquidation of the Armenian enclave . In addition, there were reports that Azerbaijan had unblocked the Lachin corridor so that Armenians could leave the region. This meant that Baku had decided to finally and forcefully close the Karabakh issue, ridding the region of any Armenian influence.

Baku chose a good moment to start the operation. Moscow clearly cannot and does not intend to intervene, and the peacekeeping contingent on the ground is useless. Russia is distracted by the fighting in Ukraine and is certainly not ready to participate in another armed conflict. Moreover, the conflict with Azerbaijan would also mean a conflict with Turkey.

The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry states that “the only way to achieve peace and stability in the region is the unconditional and complete withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan and the dissolution of the separatist regime.” In turn, the Armenian Ministry of Defense reports that there is no Armenian army in Karabakh. The Artsakh Defense Army (the Armenian name for Karabakh) is still stationed there. According to Pashinyan, the Artsakh Defense Army has not been disbanded because of Baku's policy.

Karabakh is Azerbaijani territory, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said 19Septembr 2023, asserting that the imposition of any other status for the region would never be accepted. "We have supported the negotiation process between Azerbaijan and Armenia from the beginning. However, we see that Armenia has not fully seized this historic opportunity," Erdogan said in his address at the 78th session of the UN General Assembly in New York. He expressed Türkiye's expectation that Armenia fulfil its commitments, especially those related to the opening of the Zangezur corridor, a key planned unimpeded road through Armenian territory connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave. "As everyone now accepts, Karabakh is Azerbaijani territory. The imposition of any other status will never be accepted," Erdogan underlined. The Zangezur corridor connects Azerbaijan with its landlocked exclave of Nakhchivan autonomous region. Geographically, Nakhchivan is cut off from mainland Azerbaijan by Armenian territory.

The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan publishes footage of new attacks on Armenian positions and columns of military equipment in Nagorno-Karabakh, carried out by a Bayraktar TB2 UAV. Having quickly gained air supremacy for its drones, Azerbaijan began the process familiar since 2020 - the destruction of unprotected towed artillery and attacks on supply columns. Apparently, the few air defenses located on the territory of the unrecognized republic were put out of action already in the first hours of hostilities.

As long as nothing threatens Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh, they cannot use weapons, said Kartapolov, head of the State Duma Defense Committee.

The situation in the South Caucasus once again became tense in mid-2023, as the long-term conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Karabakh was on the verge of escalating into another hot war. Almost every day the two sides open fire at each other and exchange accusations. Baku reported that Armenia had fired at its army, while just several hours later, Yerevan said that its own forces had been attacked. The events were unfolding against the background of Armenia’s joint military exercises with the United States, which continued until 20 September 2023 – a fact that, in turn, has perplexed Russia. The EU has also intervened in the situation and is actively holding talks with both Yerevan and Baku. For its part, Moscow believes that Brussels was responsible for escalating the conflict in the region.

In September 2023, the conflict between the two countries escalated once again. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that on September 1, the Azerbaijani armed forces had “launched another provocation” in the Sotk-Khoznavar area of Syunik Province in southern Armenia, and three Armenian soldiers were killed as a result. Baku, however, claimed that one of its serviceman was wounded by fire from the Armenian side. Later, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry reported that the Armenian Armed Forces used a drone to attack the Azerbaijani army at the border, and that two other soldiers were wounded.

In March 2022, Azerbaijan proposed five conditions for a peace agreement with Armenia: mutually recognizing state borders, confirming the absence of territorial claims, refraining from the use of military force and threats of force, demarcating the Armenia-Azerbaijan state border, and opening transport communications. Among other things, this included the opening of the Zangezur corridor – a route that would pass through Armenia’s Syunik province and connect Baku and the western regions of the country with the exclave of Nakhchivan. The road would then stretch further to Türkiye, and over time, would lead Armenia out of the transport isolation which it has found itself in since the First Karabakh war.

Since the winter of 2022-2023, Baku issued a series of “warnings” about the inadmissibility of delaying peace talks, Meanwhile, Armenia claimed that Karabakh had fallen under a “blockade.” The authorities of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) blamed Baku for cutting off natural gas supplies, the only source of heat for thousands of civilians. Armenia then accused Azerbaijan of blocking access to numerous trucks with humanitarian aid.

Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan stated that no representatives of the Armenian Armed Forces remain in Karabakh, however, the Artsakh Defense Army (the Armenian name for Karabakh) is still stationed there. According to Pashinyan, the Artsakh Defense Army has not been disbanded because of Baku's policy.

Moscow’s timid response in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2020 allowed the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia to run its course. The settlement returned a lot of disputed territories to Baku, despite Armenia’s membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the military alliance led by Russia. The Kremlin-brokered peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan in November 2020, following a conflict over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, cemented Moscow’s leverage over both countries.

Nagorno-Karabakh is an ethnic Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan. The confrontation over Nagorno-Karabakh broke out in 1988 when the region, mostly populated by Armenians, sought independence from Azerbaijan and announced its intention to join Armenia. For Moscow, Azerbaijan is the prize and Armenia is the tool for achieving that. Azerbaijan’s geopolitical location and rich oil resources are what interest the Kremlin.

The Karabakh conflict evolved from communal unrest in 1988-1990 and small-scale civil war involving rag-tag militias and irregular units in 1991 to an all-out war between two newly established states in 1992-1994. In 1991, the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was founded. Azerbaijan tried to regain control over the territory. The landlocked region declared independence in 1992, and the conflict escalated into a full-scale war in which around 30,000 people were killed.

When Baku inherited an underfunded and dispirited military force from the Soviet Era, it was not able to stop Armenia. Such a defeat and the subsequent loss of territories left a deep wound in Azerbaijan’s common consciousness. Without addressing this wrong, Azerbaijan’s state identity was always deemed incomplete. Also, Baku dealt with a massive humanitarian catastrophe as hundreds of thousands of displaced persons moved from Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding districts to Azerbaijan.

Oil-producing Azerbaijan frequently threatened to take the mountainous Nagorno-Karabakh region back by force from the much weaker Armenia. Armenia has not yet implemented the UN Security Council's four resolutions on withdrawal of its armed forces from the Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding districts. Clashes around the region have fueled worries of a wider conflict breaking out in the South Caucasus, which is crossed by oil and gas pipelines. The two sides are separated by a demilitarized buffer zone, but each side accuses the other of numerous violations.

Fueled by windfall revenues from its Caspian Sea oil and gas reserves, Azerbaijan went on a military spending spree over a decade, buying new weaponry and equipment from Russia and elsewhere. That worried analysts, who feared Baku might try to preemptively take back Nagorno-Karabakh, whose loss remains an unhealed wound for many Azerbaijanis.

Arayik (Ara) Harutyunianh was sworn in as de facto president of Nagorno-Karabakh, the unrecognized breakaway Azerbaijani region. The inauguration ceremony held on 21 May 2020 in the city of Shushi was attended by an Armenian delegation led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian. Harutyunian, the former prime minister of the disputed region, won a runoff election on April 14.

Nagorno-Karabakh held a second round of elections for the disputed region’s leader on 14 April 2020 amid international criticism and safety concerns due to the coronavirus outbreak. Voters headed to polls on after results from the first round of the vote on March 31 showed Ara Harutyunian, a wealthy businessman and former prime minister, winning over 49 percent, just short of the majority needed for an outright victory. Masis Mayilian finished second with 26.4 percent. On April 12, Nagorno-Karabakh’s outgoing de facto leader, Bako Sahakian, declared a coronavirus-related emergency situation in the region, but stopped short of postponing the runoff election, sparking criticism from some who feared bringing groups of people together for voting may exacerbate the coronavirus outbreak.

The OSCE Minsk Group also issued a statement on March 31 saying it "recognizes the role of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh in deciding its future," but reminded the de facto leaders of the breakaway region that "Nagorno-Karabakh is not recognized as an independent and sovereign state" by any country. "Accordingly, the co-chairs do not accept the results of these 'elections' as affecting the legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh and stress that the results in no way prejudge the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh or the outcome of the ongoing negotiations to bring a lasting and peaceful settlement to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict," the statement said.

In autumn 2020, Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a six-week war over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. The conflict claimed more than 6,500 lives and ended with a Russian-brokered cease-fire under which Armenian forces ceded territories they had controlled for decades to Azerbaijan. Since then, there have been repeated deadly border skirmishes.

President Ilham Aliyev enhanced relations with Turkey significantly, and the two governments developed a remarkable synergy. Aliyev also maintained a good relationship with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. Aliyev did not try to upset the Kremlin and understood Moscow’s red lines in the region. In the Karabakh conflict, Aliyev tried the diplomatic route for a long time and was open to compromise.

In contrast, Armenia’s Prime Minister, Pashinyan irked the Kremlin by attempting to insert pro-Western elements within Armenia’s bureaucracy and security services. His administration also opened criminal cases against Russian companies. Moreover, Pashinyan multiplied the provocations and declared his inclination to annex the occupied territories, thereby dashing hopes for a negotiated settlement and paving the way for military escalation.

Militarily, Turkey helped Azerbaijan modernise its army. The Turkish army trained the Azerbaijani army, supplied Baku with some of the latest equipment in terms of electronic warfare and armed drones, and helped design an efficient strategy that neutralised Armenia’s arsenal of armored, mechanised, and motorised formations.

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh war showed different conduct of the maneuver warfare. The campaign fought by the Armenians was based on a static deliberate defense. That concept was developed due to the need to protect dominant high grounds in Nagorno-Karabakh provinces. Those areas have been controlled by Armenian forces since 1996. Meanwhile, Azerbaijani forces’ relied on offensive maneuver in this steep terrain and required rapid displacement and movement to provide continuous support of integrated direct and indirect fire systems. Conduct of this offensive campaign was a tactically demanding task given the restricted avenues of approach of Nagorno-Karabakh. A limited space for maneuver of weapon systems and the increased need to overwhelm the adversary with fires effects was the essential tactical challenge. It has turned out that the success in handling this challenge caused the break-through advantage.

Armenian forces were eager to fight on the defensive and hold prepared defenses across elevated areas[6]. That operational choice led to the preparation of deliberate defensive positions with a more static, landline and short distance communication capacity. The setup of pre-planned defenses was ineffective when confronted by rapidly advancing and direct strike supported Azerbaijani units and the Arminian forces were unable to adjust C2 for a mobile defense.

In this war tanks and armored infantry fighting vehicles were hunted as valuable targets and the neutralization and destruction of these targets significantly downgraded Armenian capabilities. Fire engagement at longer distances were more successful on Azerbaijani side. For the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War tanks were less the agile hunters and more the hunted targets. Initial battle damage assessments indicated that Armenia lost about 6 times more tanks and about 16 times more artillery pieces, never mention the destruction of air defense positions by integrated surveillance and strike capabilities of Azerbaijani forces.

Azerbaijan’s 44 day offensive abruptly reshaped a decades-long, WWI-like trench war over Nagorno-Karabakh, an impoverished, breakaway region that was inside Azerbaijan’s borders but run by ethnic Armenians. Since the mid-1990s, when the battle over Nagorno-Karabakh killed more than 30,000 people and displaced up to a million, the conflict has long been written off as one of the world’s “frozen”, unsolvable political stalemates in which resource-poor Armenia seemed to be punching well above its political and military weight.

Azerbaijan placed its bets on sophisticated, pricey weapons and new tactics battle-tested in the Middle East, while their foes relied on old Russian-made arms and obsolete stratagems they mastered in the 1990s, analysts say. Armenia-backed troops moved around in large groups or in trucks, their trenches were wide, but not deep, their artillery was barely disguised and stayed put for days, becoming an easy target for air raids. Their weapons were hopelessly dated, their fighter jets did not fly a single sortie, and their Russian-made Osa and Strela anti-aircraft missile systems were powerless against Baku’s most lethal battlefield upgrade – unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

The Zangezur Corridor is part of a strategic transportation route extending from the Azerbaijani capital, Baku, to Kars, Türkiye’s eastern province, passing through Armenian territory near the country’s border with Iran. As a result, its opening is dependent upon the development of a comprehensive Armenian-Azerbaijani agreement.

At the end of 2020’s 44-day Karabakh War, which culminated with a triumphant Azerbaijan, the two countries signed a trilateral ceasefire agreement alongside Russia that consisted of sections on the opening of transportation routes. As was stated in the ceasefire deal’s article 9, “All economic and transport connections in the region shall be unblocked. The Republic of Armenia shall guarantee the security of transport connections between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic in order to arrange unobstructed movement of persons, vehicles and cargo in both directions.”