Rwanda - 2024 Election - General

The Rwandan government in March 2023 decided to synchronise the dates for its parliamentary and presidential elections, which are due to be held in August 2024. Government figures show that 65.3 percent of the Rwandan population is under 30, meaning that they were born after the genocide, and over 78 percent of people are between 30 and 40 years old.

Rwanda is a constitutional republic dominated by a strong presidency. The ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front [RPF] party leads a governing coalition that includes four smaller parties. In 2017 voters elected President Paul Kagame to a third seven-year term with a reported 99 percent of the vote. One independent candidate and one candidate from an opposition political party participated in the presidential election, but authorities disqualified three other candidates.

In the 2018 elections for parliament’s lower house, the Chamber of Deputies, candidates from the Rwandan Patriotic Front coalition and two other parties supporting Rwandan Patriotic Front policies won all but four of the open seats. For the first time, independent parties won seats in the chamber, with the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda and the Social Party Imberakuri winning two seats each. In both the 2017 and 2018 elections, international monitors reported numerous flaws, including irregularities in the vote tabulation process.

In 2019, 12 new senators were elected to the 26-member Senate via indirect elections. Faculty at public and private universities elected two other senators. President Kagame appointed another four senators, and the National Consultative Forum for Political Organizations designated two, in accordance with the constitution. In 2020 the National Consultative Forum for Political Organizations designated two new senators, including a member of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda.

Significant human rights issues included credible reports of: unlawful or arbitrary killings; torture or cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment by the government; harsh and life-threatening prison conditions; arbitrary detention; political prisoners or detainees; transnational repression against individuals located outside the country, including killings, kidnappings, and violence; arbitrary or unlawful interference with privacy.

Other issues include serious restrictions on free expression and media, including threats of violence against journalists, unjustified arrests or prosecutions of journalists, and censorship; serious restrictions on internet freedom; substantial interference with the freedom of peaceful assembly and freedom of association, including overly restrictive laws on the organization, funding, or operation of nongovernmental and civil society organizations; serious and unreasonable restrictions on political participation; and serious government restrictions on or harassment of domestic and international human rights organizations.

Observers and human rights advocates continued to report police used torture and other forms of cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment to intimidate or obtain information from individuals in unofficial detention centers. The government took some steps to prosecute or punish members of security services who committed abuses or for misconduct. Impunity, however, was a problem, particularly in cases where government opponents were the apparent victims of abuses.

The government continued to use arbitrary arrests (or the threat of arbitrary arrest) as a tool to discourage government critics, independent voices, and political opposition members. Observers reported state security forces sometimes held individuals incommunicado and subjected them to interrogation and threats to curtail their exercise of freedoms of speech and association. Human rights NGOs previously reported individuals suspected of having ties to armed insurgent groups were detained unlawfully and held incommunicado for long periods in harsh and inhuman conditions.

Lengthy pretrial detention was a serious problem, and authorities often detained prisoners for months without arraignment, in large part due to administrative delays caused by case backlogs and prosecutors favoring imprisonment over alternatives, even if available in a case.

Local officials and state security forces continued to detain and imprison some individuals who had previously disagreed with government decisions or policies. Some government critics faced indictment under broadly applied charges of genocide incitement, genocide denial, inciting insurrection, rebellion, or attempting to overthrow the government. Others faced apparently unrelated criminal charges. Political prisoners were generally afforded the same protections, including visitation rights, access to lawyers and doctors, and access to family members, as other detainees. The government did not generally give human rights or humanitarian organizations access to specific political prisoners.

There were reports the government attempted to pursue political opponents abroad. The country is credibly alleged to have killed or kidnapped persons, or used violence or threats of violence against individuals in other countries, for purposes of politically motivated reprisal. Advocates reported that citizens living overseas experienced digital threats, spyware attacks, and family and personal intimidation and harassment. Advocates stated the government applied these measures as needed to put pressure on individuals who threatened government interests. Advocates continued to report the government used surveillance tools to target critics both at home and abroad. Amnesty International reported in 2021 that the government had potentially used Pegasus spyware to target up to 3,500 persons over an indeterminate period.

The country was ranked 131 out of 180 countries in the 2023 World Press Freedom Index compiled by Reporters Without Borders. There were no official restrictions on individuals’ right to criticize the government publicly or privately on policy implementation and other topics, but broad interpretation of provisions in the law had a chilling effect on such criticism. The government generally did not tolerate criticism of the presidency and government policy on security, human rights, and other matters it deemed sensitive.

Laws prohibiting divisionism, genocide ideology, and genocide denial were broadly applied and discouraged citizens, residents, and visitors to the country from expressing viewpoints that could be construed as promoting societal divisions. The law prohibits making use of speech, writing, or any other act that divides the populace or may set them against each other or cause civil unrest because of discrimination. Conviction of “instigating divisions” is punishable by five to seven years’ imprisonment and a substantial monetary fine. Authorities applied the laws broadly, including to silence political dissent and to shut down investigative journalism.

Observers reported harassment, suspicious disappearances, and the fear of prosecution pushed many journalists to engage in self-censorship. Journalists reported government officials frequently pressured them to produce news stories that presented the government favorably. Reporters Without Borders continued to report that censorship remained ubiquitous, and self-censorship was widely used to avoid running afoul of the regime.

Rwandan President Paul Kagame on 19 September 2023 said for the first time that he plans to run for a fourth term in elections due to be held in 2024. "Yes, I am indeed a candidate," Kagame, who has ruled over the country with an iron fist for decades, told Jeune Afrique, a French-language news magazine. "I am pleased with the confidence that Rwandans have placed in me. I will always serve them, as long as I can," the 65-year-old was quoted as saying. Kagame had previously not made his intentions clear, but presided over controversial constitutional amendments in 2015 that allowed him to run for more terms and stay in power until 2034. Kagame won the elections in 2003, 2010 and 2017 with over 90 percent of the vote.

Rwanda under President Kagame has enjoyed relative political stability, which has enabled economic development and improved quality of life for Rwandans. Kagame has implemented policies that have contributed to significant economic growth. Since 2000, the country's GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 7.5 percent, and poverty has declined from 56.7 per cent in 2006 to 39.1 per cent in 2020.

One challenge for the president, who is also the chairman of the ruling party, is to put in place structures within RPF that outlive him. Smooth political transitions like in Tanzania and South Africa, he noted, were only possible because their popular leaders – Mwalimu Julius Nyerere and Nelson Mandela – had set up structures that enable the party to still hold together when they left. Nyerere and Mandela put in place (party) systems that are not perfect but at least protected the country from disintegrating after they left. They built effective party structures that made it impossible for the subsequent leaders to destroy the country. They also empowered the ruling party to deal with dissent.