Presidential Election - March 2024

On 07 December 2023, the Russian Federation Council (upper house, or "senate," of the Federal Assembly, Russia’s parliament since 1993) adopted a resolution to officially designate March 17, 2024 as the date for the next election of Russia’s head of state. On 08 December 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his plans to run for reelection in 2024. The announcement was made during an informal conversation with participants of his country's special military operation. "We have proven that we are capable of tackling some of the most complex challenges," the Russian president said.

The Russian leader confirmed that his country supports the establishment of a new "truly democratic" model of global economic development. "The entire global system of economic relations is undergoing fundamental irreversible changes. This is because the previous model of globalization is being replaced by a multipolar model," Putin said at the plenary session of the 14th VTB "Russia Calling!" Investment Forum.

Presidential elections can be held on the anniversary of the approval of the draft treaty on the "accession" of Crimea to Russia. They are scheduled to be appointed on March 17, 2024. In particular, on March 17, 2014, the Russian president approved the draft treaty on the "accession" of Crimea to Russia.

The Russian Federation has a highly centralized, authoritarian political system dominated by President Vladimir Putin. The bicameral Federal Assembly consists of a directly elected lower house (State Duma) and an appointed upper house (Federation Council), both of which lack independence from the executive. The 2018 presidential election and the September 19 State Duma elections were marked by accusations of government interference and manipulation of the electoral process, including the exclusion of meaningful opposition candidates.

Significant human rights issues included credible reports of: extrajudicial killings and attempted extrajudicial killings, including of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and intersex persons in Chechnya by local government authorities; enforced disappearances by or on behalf of government authorities; pervasive torture by government law enforcement officers that sometimes resulted in death and occasionally involved sexual violence or punitive psychiatric incarceration; harsh and life-threatening conditions in prisons; arbitrary arrest and detention; political and religious prisoners and detainees; politically motivated reprisals against individuals located outside the country; severe arbitrary interference with privacy; severe suppression of freedom of expression and media, including violence against journalists and the use of "antiextremism" and other laws to prosecute peaceful dissent and religious minorities; severe restrictions on internet freedom; severe suppression of the freedom of peaceful assembly; severe suppression of freedom of association, including overly restrictive laws on "foreign agents" and "undesirable foreign organizations"; severe restrictions of religious freedom; refoulement of refugees; inability of citizens to change their government peacefully through free and fair elections; severe limits on participation in the political process, including restrictions on opposition candidates' ability to seek public office and conduct political campaigns, and on the ability of civil society to monitor election processes.

Government-controlled media frequently used derogatory terms such as "traitor," "foreign agent," and "fifth column" to describe individuals expressing views critical of or different from government policy, leading to a societal climate intolerant of dissent. The government continued to restrict press and media freedom. More than 80 percent of country's mass media was funded by the government or progovernment actors. Government-friendly oligarchs owned most other outlets, which are permitted to determine what they publish within formal or informal boundaries set by the government. Journalists continued to be subjected to arrest, imprisonment, physical attack, harassment, and intimidation as a result of their reporting.

The law provides for freedom of assembly, but local authorities restricted this right. The law requires organizers of public meetings, demonstrations, or marches by more than one person to notify the government, although authorities maintained that protest organizers must receive government permission, not just provide notification. Failure to obtain official permission to hold a protest resulted in the demonstration being viewed as unlawful by law enforcement officials, who routinely dispersed such protests.

Although they do not require official approval, authorities restricted single-person pickets and required that there be at least 164 feet [50 meters] separating protesters from each other. By law police officers may stop a single-person picket to protect the health and safety of the picketer.

For the purposes of implementing the "foreign agents" law, the government considered "political activities" to include: organizing public events, rallies, demonstrations, marches, and pickets; organizing and conducting public debates, discussions, or presentations; ‎participating in election activities aimed at influencing the result, including election observation and forming commissions; public calls to influence local and state government bodies, including calling for changes to legislation; disseminating opinions and decisions of state bodies by technology; and attempting to shape public political views, including public opinion polls or other sociological research.

Authorities continued to misuse the country's expansive definition of extremism to stifle freedom of association. On 04 June 2021, President Putin signed a law that prohibits members of "extremist" organizations from participating in elections at all levels – municipal, regional, and federal. On 09 June 2021, a Moscow city court designated Navalny's Anticorruption Foundation, his political operations, and the affiliated Citizens' Rights Protection Fund as "extremist" in a move that experts said was designed to prohibit those affiliated with Navalny and the Anticorruption Foundation from running for office.

While the law provides citizens the ability to choose their government in free and fair periodic elections held by secret ballot and based on universal and equal suffrage, citizens could not fully do so because the government limited the ability of opposition parties to organize, register candidates for public office, access media outlets, and conduct political campaigns.

The Kremlin had begun preparations for the presidential elections in Russia, which are to be held in 2024. Officials of the Presidential Administration proceed from the fact that the elections, despite the war, will be held on time - next March - and that Vladimir Putin will participate in them. This was reported 13 January 2023 by Kommersant, citing sources close to the Kremlin. The fact that the Kremlin proceeds from the participation in the elections of the incumbent president is also reported by the Nestka edition.

Amendments to the Constitution adopted in 2020 "nullified" Putin's presidential terms and gave him the opportunity to run for president in the 2024 and 2030 elections. Putin himself, who has been president since 2000 (with a break for 2008-2012), has not yet announced whether he will be elected or not.

"There are no clear outlines of the ideological component yet, although it is assumed that it will be based on the theme of unity," Kommersant writes. The Kremlin intends to test various technologies and "meaningful ideas" for 2024 in the regional elections in the fall of 2023. Kommersant's interlocutors note that attention will be paid to the "new stratum" - those who participated in the war in Ukraine and their relatives; in addition, the Kremlin expects to work with the electorate in the recently annexed territories of four regions of Ukraine, believing that elections will be held there as well.

The Nestka publication also reported the day before that the Kremlin "moved to a new phase of preparations for the 2024 presidential election." In particular, the authorities of the Russian regions received orders to prepare for the campaign. Their heads are recommended now to draw up lists of the most important social problems for residents that they will have to solve in the coming months, as well as "to assess the mood in social networks and take measures to improve them." Possible candidates, besides Putin, are representatives of the parties represented in the State Duma - they all support the war.

Nyurstka also wrote, citing anonymous sources close to the authorities in Moscow and another, unnamed region, that the Kremlin recommended that the heads of Russian regions go to the war zone with Ukraine "as publicly as possible" before the regional elections in September 2022. The recommendation concerns the heads of the regions who are going to have an election campaign. Vedomosti recently wrote that at the end of January-February 2023, special seminars for vice-governors on domestic policy will be held in the Moscow region, which, among other things, may also touch upon the topic of presidential elections.

In February 2023, the Levada Center found that the approval ratings of the main public authorities remained virtually unchanged and remain high. The ratings of United Russia and the Communist Party have slightly risen. The ratings of politicians have hardly changed during the month. At the end of March, the share of those who believe that things in the country are going in the right direction slightly decreased. In February there were 68% of them, this month – 66%. 23% of respondents believe that the country is moving on the wrong path (21% in February).

In comparison with January 2023, the ratings of the United Russia and the Communist Party have slightly increased, the ratings of the LDPR, New People and the Just Russia have decreased. Among all respondents, the level of support for United Russia was 39% (in January – 37%), the Communist Party – 10% (in January – 9%), the LDPR – 7% (in January – 8%), the Just Russia — 4% (in January – 5%), “New People” – 3% (in January – 4%).

In May 2023, as in the past few months, the assessments of the activities of the main state authorities did not change significantly, the level of approval remains high. Most of the respondents still believe that things in the country are going in the right direction. Trust in key public and state figures also remained virtually unchanged, with Yevgeny Prigozhin making it into the top ten for the first time. According to an open-ended question (respondents were asked to name several politicians they trust the most), in May the level of confidence in Vladimir Putin was 42% (in April - 40%), Mikhail Mishustin - 18% (in April - 15%), Sergey Lavrov - 14% (as in April), Sergei Shoigu - 11% (in April - 10%). For the first time, Yevgeny Prigozhin was in the top ten - 4% of respondents trust him (in April - 1%), placing him fifth after Shoigu, and tied with Mevedev.

Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov has accused the New York Times of “mistranslating” a quote by him implying that Russian elections are rigged. While the election will be democratic, Peskov suggested that President Vladimir Putin’s public support is so high that he will almost certainly win another term. In a lengthy feature on the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on life in Russia, the New York Times quoted Peskov as saying “our presidential election is not really democracy, it is costly bureaucracy. Mr. Putin will be re-elected next year with more than 90 percent of the vote.”

The quote came amid a section of the story talking about how the ongoing military operation in Ukraine has consolidated support for Putin. According to Russia’s Levada polling center – an organization generally cited favorably by Western media – Putin has enjoyed an 80% approval rating through the entire conflict, except for immediately after he announced a partial mobilization last September.

Speaking to Russia’s ‘Podiom’ media on 06 August 2023, Peskov said his words were “conveyed incorrectly.” While the New York Times’ version of the quote implies that the Russia does not hold democratic elections, Peskov actually said that, when Putin’s popularity and the “consolidation of society” due to the conflict are considered, “it can be said with confidence that if Putin is nominated, he will be re-elected with a huge advantage.”

“But elections are democratic, the president himself spoke about this,” he continued. “Although, on the other hand, they cost a lot of money, and it is clear in advance that Putin will be re-elected by a huge margin. This is what was discussed, and the published quote is, of course, a mistranslation.”

Putin’s popularity remained higher than ever according to Levada. Putin’s popularity had been hovering in the mid- to high-60s for much of the pandemic years, falling to a one-time low of 53 points in April 2020 when the first lockdowns were introduced before recovering to 66 in August that year. However, following the invasion of Ukraine his popularity leaped over 10 points to 83 in March 2022 and has remained at between 81 and 83 points throughout the duration of the war, with the exception of September to November when it fell to 77-79 following Ukraine’s successful Kharkiv counter-offensive.

United Russia approved the incumbent leader’s run as an independent candidate. In his political career of more than 20 years, Putin has run for president four times, mostly as an independent. The only exception was in 2012, when he was nominated by the United Russia party.

The convention of the ruling United Russia party has unanimously approved President Vladimir Putin’s bid to seek reelection next year as an independent candidate. If the incumbent leader wins the vote, it will be his fifth term in office. The motion was put to a vote by former president and United Russia chair Dmitry Medvedev during the party's congress, held at the All-Russian Exhibition Center in Moscow on Sunday. When asked who supported Putin’s candidacy, the entire audience raised their hands, with no nays or abstentions.

During his speech, Medvedev also stated that “there is not a vestige doubt who should be at the helm of the Russian state in this turbulent period,” suggesting that Putin enjoys overwhelming public support. When election day comes, he continued, United Russia “would do its best to help incumbent President Vladimir Putin secure a landslide victory once again.” Speaking at the same convention, Putin thanked United Russia for its consistent support, noting that the country still has to solve “historic tasks,” including protecting the nation's independence and place in the global arena.