Pakistan - Politics 2024

Pakistan scheduled the country's 12th parliamentary elections for the last week of January 2024, eventually delaying the vote until 08 February 2024. With the country dealing with an economy in crisis, as well as a volatile security situation with more than 1000 people dying last year in violent attacks, many Pakistanis are viewing the elections with the hope that it can produce a government capable of bringing some stability to the nation of 241 million people. The next government may struggle to gain legitimacy because of the targeting of Khan. And without the trust of Pakistan’s people, the next prime minister may struggle to take steps to help the country fight its myriad challeges.

The country's election authority announced 21 September 2023 a date nearly three months later than initially intended. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan is unlikely to compete, given a corruption conviction and other investigations. Pakistan has been in a state of economic turmoil in recent years, with rampant corruption, the coronavirus pandemic, inflation and a strong US dollar and natural disasters all putting its economy under severe strain. Pakistan had been in the grips of considerable political turbulence since Khan was removed from power. He has since been sentenced to three years in jail on graft charges and disqualified for five years from standing for office.

Pakistan was due to hold a general election by October 2023, prior to which the current government will be dissolved and a caretaker government set up in order to conduct the polls, as has been the convention in the South Asian country. Elections were scheduled to be held within 60 days of the dissolution of the National Assembly, which was set to dissolve on 13 August 2023 upon completing its five year term. If dissolved earlier, the election shall be held within 90 days after dissolution according to the constitution. This meant that the election must be held no later than 14 October 2023.

When Pakistan Army led by General Ayub Khan staged country's first successful coup d'état in 1958, Punjabi poet Ustad Daman mocked it saying, "Mere mulk diyan maujan hi maujan, jidhar dekho faujan hi faujan [My country is having so much fun; there is army till as far as the eye can see]." For decades, as Pakistani military remained the force that decided the country's fate, Ustad Daman's mockery stood the test of time; a subsistence of dry humour typical of two Punjabs of the Indian subcontinent, bitterly partitioned into present-day India, Pakistan and eventually Bangladesh.

But on May 9, 2023, when hundreds of enraged supporters of ousted Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan pushed through the gates of army headquarters in Rawalpindi, the army, unlike Ustad Daman's poetic assertion, was nowhere to be seen. Hours earlier, Khan, Pakistan's cricket icon-turned-populist politician, was arrested from a courtroom in capital Islamabad, where he had sought bail for one of over 142 corruption cases filed against him through the Army-run National Accountability Bureau (NAB).

Days later, after the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chief managed to get bail and a two-week arrest freeze following the Supreme Court's intervention, an emboldened Khan launched an even more vigorous attack on the army; recalling its humiliating defeat in 1971 that led to the creation of Bangladesh and Osama bin Laden's killing in 2011 in Abbottabad in an operation by the US Special Forces.

For the first time in Pakistan’s history, action against a political leader inspired a 'mini-intifada' against the military itself. PTI supporters stormed the streets across the country last week following the arrest of the party chief and former Prime Minister Imran Khan. His supporters were seen damaging public and private properties, including the residence of a top military commander in Lahore and the gate of the army’s General Headquarters in Rawalpindi.

But despite an unprecedented action from Khan's supporters, there is no unprecedented counter-reaction from the army (which history suggests, is usually a coup or imposition of Emergency in Pakistan). Instead, the army was quick enough to ward off the speculations of Martial Law imposition. The army pulled its guards back, and let the looting of its officers’ homes take place, avoiding bloodshed near key military installations. But why such stoicism?

Divisions or rifts within the army were emerging as the most plausible reason behind Rawalpindi's refusal to formally take over Islamabad's corridors of power. The rift within the army has been evident since General Asim Munir took over as Army chief against officers like Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed, who were seen as more sympathetic to Imran Khan. "It would be unwise of the army to take over directly because the situation is so bad in Pakistan when it comes to not just the economy but also the terrorism. Whoever is directly in charge would incur further unpopularity," Sharat Sabharwal, India's former ambassador to Pakistan, and author of 'India's Pakistan Conundrum: Managing a Complex Relationship', told WION. Pointing towards the relationship of "mutual dependence" between the army and the civilian leadership, Sabharwal asked: "Why would they do it when they have a civilian façade from where they continue to operate?" Immediately after the events of May 9th, a proposal for the imposition of a state of Emergency was laid out in a cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. A national state of Emergency will give the authority to the army without taking over directly. "A civilian government can declare Emergency and call the army out and the latter can do their bit," Sabharwal told WION. Pakistan’s government said it will take action against Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) supporters involved in damaging military buildings and installations last week under the Army Act and Official Secrets Act. Pakistan’s government has said it will take action against Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) supporters involved in damaging military buildings and installations last week under the Army Act and Official Secrets Act.

In 1966, under the rule of military leader Ayub Khan, an amendment was made to the act whereby civilians accused of inciting mutiny within the rank and file through written and verbal material, could be tried under the act. Civilians accused of sharing official state secrets with the enemy may also be tried in a military court as well as those civilians who are accused of targeting and attacking military installations.

In the past, the moments of crisis in the chaotic relationship of mutual dependence between the Pakistan Army and the civilian government have led to the formation of technocratic governments. In a technocratic government, individuals are appointed to the ministries on the basis of their expertise and are not necessarily career politicians. Most recently, between 2004 and 2007, Pakistani dictator Pervez Musharraf installed Shaukat Aziz, a former banker and financier, as prime minister in a technocratic government.

Pakistan has justified military takeovers and formation of such technocratic governments with a "doctrine of necessity", which refers to extraordinary actions to restore order even if such actions contravene established laws. "The Supreme Court is made to give an endorsement in making an exception to the constitution," Sabharwal said, while cautioning that such an endorsement may not come easy during the tenure of current chief justice Umar Ata Bandial. "The chief justices in the past have been browbeaten by the army and made to act in their favour. But this one so far has not done so. He would have known that the army was behind Imran Khan's arrest and despite that he ordered his release. He's a bold guy," Sabharwal said.

In late 2021 - early 2022, when an alliance of opposition parties PML-N, PPP and Jamiat-Ulema-e-Islam (JMI, "Assembly of Islamic Theologians") was created, their common goal was to remove the formed Movement for justice (DZS) of the government of Imran Khan, who lost support from the military command. The lack of understanding between Khan and the then commander of the army of the Islamic Republic, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, was indicated by the "sudden" exit from the ruling coalition of the Muttahid Qaumi Movement (MQM-P) party, which, as many experts and ordinary Pakistanis believe, was created in 1984 backed by the Pakistani Armed Forces and is still a political visionary and the eyes and ears of the Army Command in Parliament. The transition of the MQM-P to the side of the opposition called into question the ability of the ruling alliance led by the DZS to hold a majority of seats in the National Assembly. As a result of the pragmatic work of the PML-N and the PPP, the Justice Movement lost the opportunity to influence the outcome of the no-confidence vote. In April 2022, Khan was removed from his post as Prime Minister of Pakistan by a decision of the lower house of parliament.

Meanwhile, a number of Pakistanis came out to cheer the way a section of their fellow citizens have brazenly rounded upon the armed forces. This, according to Burzine Waghmar, a member of the Centre for the Study of Pakistan at SOAS University of London, is a “novel outburst”. Imran Khan claimed Pakistan’s ruling coalition and the military are cracking down on him and his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) to stop him from contesting the upcoming general election. “All the political parties and the establishment want me removed from the electoral field in an election year,” he said 118 May 2023. The 70-year-old former cricketer also claimed that 7,500 of his supporters have been jailed in the past week. “This was deliberate as the [favourable] rating of my political party is at 70 percent and the government is running away from elections,” he said. “Neither the military establishment nor the 13-party political alliance brought in by the former army chief wants elections because they are scared I will win,” Khan said. He also accused a former army chief of “feeding lines to the United States” about him.

Preventing the DZS from returning to power has become one of the main tasks of the government of Shahbaz Sharif and the military command of the country, which finally quarreled with the ex-premier. It is noteworthy that six months before his dismissal, Khan began to lose public support against the backdrop of the inability of his cabinet to solve the growing problems in the national economy. At the same time, competent work in social networks and with the press allowed the DZS to create for itself the image of a victim of a foreign conspiracy, which party leaders until the end of 2022 actively used to undermine the authority of the government that came to power. The hype created in the media about the removal of Khan provided him with an extremely high level of support from the electorate.

This is also why the leadership of the DZS so actively insisted on holding early elections in Pakistan and even tried to artificially provoke the start of the electoral process by dissolving the legislative assemblies in the provinces of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa almost simultaneously. Commenting on this phenomenon in December 2022, PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari noted that opposition former Prime Minister Khan's desire for early parliamentary elections was due to the presence of "intermediaries" in the state apparatus, accusing the head of the DZS of trying to return to power "through negotiations behind closed doors."

The cabinet of ministers of Pakistan, headed by Shahbaz Sharif, formed in April 2022 by a coalition of the ruling parties of the country, was expected to resign on August 9. On the same day, the signed decision of the government on the dissolution of the National Assembly (the lower house of parliament) will be submitted to the President of the Islamic Republic, Arif Alvi, for approval. In accordance with the constitution, for a period of no more than 90 days before the elections, Pakistan will be governed by an interim government. However, to date, there is no clarity regarding the composition of this transitional cabinet, which should be announced following consultations between the ruling parties and the opposition in the National Assembly.

Judging by the continuation of regular meetings between Nawaz Sharif and Asif Ali Zardari, the leaders of the two most influential parties in the ruling coalition today - the Pakistan Muslim Nawaz League (PML-N) and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), there is no consensus in the leadership of the Islamic Republic on this issue.

However, on August 3, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, speaking to coalition partners in Islamabad, said that he would soon begin negotiations on the candidacy of the head of the interim government with the leader of the opposition in the National Assembly, Raja Riyaz. It is likely that on August 7-8 (in the first working days of next week) the candidates for the designated post will become known. However, the Pakistani realities are such that the final decision on the sidelines on the composition of the interim government can be made a day or even a few hours before the expected completion of the powers of the current Cabinet.

Pakistan’s president on 09 August 2023 dissolved the National Assembly [the lower house of parliament], a first step in the countdown to a general election by mid-November. The move came as the country’s top opposition leader is fighting to overturn a corruption conviction that landed him in a high-security prison. Usually, such a step is a formality and a general election would typically have to be held within 90 days. But this year there’s a twist. A delay until the spring is possible if Pakistan’s election commission opts for redistricting ahead of an election, based on the results of a recent census. The uncertainty over the election date coincides with the legal and political drama surrounding Sharif’s predecessor and national cricket hero, Imran Khan. The 70-year-old popular opposition leader was convicted by an Islamabad court of concealing assets and was sentenced to three years in prison.

Sharif’s ruling Pakistan Muslim League party expected to face tough competition from Khan’s party — though Khan himself would be unable to take part unless his conviction is overturned. Under Pakistan’s laws, no one with a criminal conviction can lead a party, run in elections or hold public office.

Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) also had its symbol taken away by the ECP, but the party still managed to put up independent candidates in a coordinated campaign. PTI had been subjected to a nationwide state clampdown, with hundreds of workers and candidates arrested without charges and released only after quitting the party or withdrawing from the election. Party officials and local media reported 06 February 2024 that police continued raiding election offices and residences of PTI leaders and workers across Pakistan on the eve of the elections. Khan, 71, has been in prison since last August after a court found him guilty of graft and sentenced him to three years. Most recently, he was convicted on several highly controversial charges of corruption, leaking state secrets and violating a marriage law. He received prison terms of up to 14 years and was disqualified from holding public office.

The United Nations human rights agency voiced concern 06 February 2024 over Pakistan's crackdown on the opposition party of former Prime Minister Imran Khan ahead of this week's parliamentary election. Elizabeth Throssell, spokesperson for the U.N. high commissioner for human rights, urged Pakistani authorities to ensure the right to participation of all people for an inclusive democratic process. "All eligible parties must be able to compete fairly," she said during a news briefing in Geneva. "We are disturbed, therefore, by the pattern of harassment, arrests and prolonged detentions of leaders of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party and their supporters, which has continued during the election period," Throssell said.

Before the voting started at its scheduled 8am local time (0300 GMT), the government announced the suspension of mobile services across the country, citing security concerns. Since 2022, Pakistan had seen a series of internet clampdowns, with ten incidents all aimed at stifling the activities surrounding the opposition party. The years 2022, 2023, and 2024 have seen three, four, and three restrictions so far, respectively, most of which targeted social media or messaging services. The intense restriction pattern has positioned Pakistan as the fourth most intensive country in the world in internet disruptions, with 19 documented cases since 2015.

“Curbing internet access during elections strikes at democracy’s heart, betraying human rights. Such censorship prevents people from reading the news and other people’s opinions, stifling voices and stifling choice, as citizens are no longer able to cast their votes based on the truth. Democracy thrives on fully informed citizens, not silenced screens”, says Agneska Sablovskaja, Surfshark’s spokesperson.

Mobile phone services were not disrupted in 2018, when analysts said security concerns were greater, with a bombing at an election rally killing more than 140 people.

Al Jazeera’s Assed Baig, reporting from Lahore, said the suspension of internet and mobile networks is an issue for local election observers who have to go to different polling stations and need to communicate with other observers. “But the suspension of internet services is also an issue for people who are voting. It is affecting people who are using apps and websites to see who they will be voting for, and what their election symbol is,” he said. “And the party that is going to be most affected by this is the PTI because it has relied heavily on social media,” he said, referring to Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party.

Michael Kugelman, director of The South Asia Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, said the suspension of mobile services was “an ominous start to election day”. He said “It’s clear, based on the steps they took as soon as the polls opened, that the powers that be remain concerned about the PTI’s possible electoral impact. Especially its turnout potential”. Amidst raucous protests of pre-poll manipulation, mobile service suspension and bomb blasts in the country which killed at least nine people, Pakistan’s 12th general election were declared closed on 08 February 2024. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has said that the counting process started soon after the closure of the poll. The results are expected to start trickling in later at night.

Former foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari Pakistan People’s Party cast his vote in the province of Sindh, where the PPP is particularly strong. The PPP was hoping it can spring a surprise and upset predictions by emerging victorious. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the 35-year-old son of former premier Benazir Bhutto, has also run an aggressive campaign in an outside bid for the top office.

Three-time former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz is considered the front-runner to emerge victorious. Sharif spoke to the media after casting his vote, declaring he never had any problems with the Pakistani military, the primary power broker in the country with whom he has had major differences in the past. His path to potential premiership was cleared after his chief political rival, ex-Prime Minister mran Khan, was barred from participating in the election due to a conviction in a corruption case.

Pakistan, historically, has seen low voter turnout in elections. Since 1985, only twice has the turnout exceeded 50 percent of total voters, in 2013 (54 percent) and 2018 (51 percent).