India - 2024 Elections

India is a multiparty, federal, parliamentary democracy with a bicameral legislature. The president, elected by an electoral college composed of the state assemblies and parliament, is the head of state, and the prime minister is the head of government. Under the constitution, the country’s 28 states and eight union territories have a high degree of autonomy and have primary responsibility for law and order. Electors chose President Ram Nath Kovind in 2017 to serve a five-year term, and Narendra Modi became prime minister for the second time following the victory of the National Democratic Alliance coalition led by the Bharatiya Janata Party in the 2019 general election. Observers considered the parliamentary elections, which included more than 600 million voters, to be free and fair, although there were reports of isolated instances of violence.

Significant human rights issues included: unlawful and arbitrary killings, including extrajudicial killings perpetrated by police; torture and cases of cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment by some police and prison officials; arbitrary arrest and detention by government authorities; harsh and life-threatening prison conditions; political prisoners or detainees in certain states; restrictions on freedom of expression and the press, including violence, threats of violence, or unjustified arrests or prosecutions against journalists, use of criminal libel laws to prosecute social media speech, censorship, and site blocking; overly restrictive rules on nongovernmental organizations; restrictions on political participation; widespread corruption at all levels in the government; lack of investigation of and accountability for violence against women; tolerance of violations of religious freedom; crimes involving violence and discrimination targeting members of minority groups including women based on religious affiliation or social status ; and forced and compulsory child labor, as well as bonded labor.

Separatist insurgents and terrorists in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, the Northeast, and Maoist-affected areas committed serious abuses, including killings and torture of armed forces personnel, police, government officials, and civilians, and recruitment and use of child soldiers. The government continued taking steps to restore normalcy in Jammu and Kashmir by gradually lifting some security and communications restrictions. The government released most political activists from detention.

The BJP and AAP gained huge momentum in 2022 ahead of the 2024 general election. Except Punjab, in the remaining four states of UP, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur, Modi magic has ruined the opposition parties. PM Modi also made a big deal about the Lok Sabha elections to be held in the year 2024. He said, “I will also say today that after the 2019 election results, some political experts had said that the results of 2017 decided the results of 2019. I believe this time also they will say that the results of 2022 have changed the results of 2024. Decided the results.”

While the AAP has seen a swift rise in the 10 years since its inception, there is still no one party that can challenge the BJP's communal polarisation politics combined with its strongman rhetoric and welfarism, says The Hindu editorial today Much more is needed than just smart electioneering or tactical plays to challenge the BJP behemoth. Given the Congress’s miserable performance yet again, it is the AAP now that is seeking to become a national party as well as the BJP’s main opposition party.

Modi has decimated coalition politics at the national level by separating national and state politics. Hindutva is his strength so he campaigns around it. Nationalism is his strength so he campaigns around it. Rahul Gandhi and the Congress party, and the opposition sentiment at large, continue to make the mistake of seeing the Lok Sabha election as the big final that the state elections lead up to.

Rahul Gandhi’s strengths are the legacy of the Congress party, the rights-based laws of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), his popularity in parts of south India, and having a few state governments. Rahul Gandhi's weaknesses are that he is a poor orator, makes too many gaffes, is seen as a serial loser, disappears for days on end and appears inconsistent.

Modi’s weaknesses are unkept promises, the bullet trains in the air, the black money not recovered from abroad, poor economic growth, unemployment, Dalit angst, but none of these will become electorally relevant unless the Congress party campaigns to make the most of them.

Leaders of 17 political parties in India agreed on 23 June 2023 to form a united front against Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Loose coalitions have been formed in the past, but not since the 1980s have so many different parties banded together on a national level to take on ruling party in government, The Indian Express reported. "There certainly will be some differences among us but we have decided we will work together, work with flexibility," said Rahul Gandhi, a key figure in the Indian National Congress (INC) who was disqualified from parliament in March in a defamation case. The meeting was hosted by the chief minister of the eastern Bihar state, Nitish Kumar, and was held in the state capital of Patna. "Everyone has agreed that we will all work together in the interest of the country," said Kumar of the Janata Dal-United Party.

The compulsions for the opposition parties to present a united challenge to Modi are very, very big because in the last four years they have all faced harassment from federal investigative agencies and the BJP has played politics with all of them to break these parties and harass their leaders. If they don't put up a united challenge to Modi and somehow stop him from coming back, they all know it is going to be the end of the road for them because the BJP will not really allow any of these opposition parties, particularly the Congress, to survive.

Critics of Modi's leadership style have often accused him of exhibiting authoritarian tendencies, particularly when it comes to press freedom, rights of minority communities, and centralization of power. However, it's important to note that these claims are contentious and disputed. Indian democracy, despite its challenges, has robust institutions such as judiciary, election commission, and a vibrant civil society, which can provide checks and balances on the executive power. However, like any democracy, its health and functioning is subject to constant evaluation and scrutiny.

Modi's opponents charge the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Modi and his spiritual allies with propaganda for Hindu nationalism and right-wing policies; to rewrite India’s history; and divert public attention away from their Hindu supremacist political agenda. The nation has seen a surge in state-sponsored and vigilante attacks on Muslims, Christians, Dalits and other oppressed minorities since Modi has taken office. Not only has Modi legitimised Hindu nationalists to be more emboldened in attacking marginalised populations, but his administration has also weakened independent institutions of Indian democracy, including the judiciary.

More than two dozen Indian opposition parties joined hands to form an alliance called “INDIA” [ “Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance”] to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in parliamentary elections. The decision was announced on 18 July 2023 at the end of a two-day meeting of 26 parties in the southern city of Bengaluru. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said the fight against BJP is a fight to “defend the idea of India, defend the voice of the Indian people”. The parties, many of which are regional rivals and have been splintered at the national level, account for less than half the 301 seats that BJP has in the 542-member lower house of parliament.