Finland - 11 February 2024 Presidential Election

Finns headed to the polls 11 February 2024 to choose between two experienced politicians in a presidential election run-off. The current direct election method, where the presidential election can have two rounds, has been in use since 1994. During this time, the winner of the first round has always become president. The second-place finisher in the second round has never managed to get past the first place in support. This did not happen this time either. More than four million people were eligible to vote for a new head of state, whose main task will be to steer foreign and security policy, which has taken on new significance after the Nordic country joined NATO in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Finland's presidential elections were held in an exceptional time, when the Nordic countries' relations with Russia have weakened after the country's attack on Ukraine. Unlike in most European countries, the president of Finland holds executive power in formulating foreign and security policy, together with the government. That focus is magnified concerning countries outside the European Union such as the United States, Russia and China. The head of state also commands the military, which is particularly important in Europe’s current security environment and the changed geopolitical situation of Finland. The Finnish presidential elections are now of interest to the world, because as the head of state, the Finnish president has an exceptional role in the country's foreign and security policy. The president of Finland represents the country in the military alliance NATO and heads the defense forces. According to foreign media, the powers of the Finnish president are broader than in many other countries. In the first round, the Coalition's candidate Stubb received 27.2 percent support. On the other hand, Haavisto of the Greens and supporters' association reached 25.8 percent. The first round of the Finnish presidential election was overshadowed by the geopolitical drama related to Finland's NATO membership. The first round of the Finnish presidential election was overshadowed by the geopolitical drama related to Finland's NATO membership. The most important themes of the first round of the presidential election were foreign and security policy issues, Russia policy and increasing security cooperation with the United States, and military aid to Ukraine. According to the Russian media, regardless of the winner of the election, Finland will get an anti-Russian president Already during the election campaign, the top candidates talked about continuing the anti-Russian course and supporting Ukraine, Interfax wrote. The Russian news agency Tass reported that Stubb and Haavisto, the early favorites for the Finnish presidential election, have built their presidential election campaign around anti-Russian politics. The run-off vote pitched conservative former prime minister Alexander Stubb, 55, against 65-year-old Pekka Haavisto, a former foreign minister from the Green League. Both largely agree on Finland’s foreign policy and security priorities. These include maintaining a hard line toward Russia – with which the country shares a 1,340km (832-mile) border – strengthening security ties with Washington, and support for Ukraine. The run-off follows January 28’s first round, in which none of the candidates won more than the requisite 50 percent of votes for victory. The National Coalition Party’s Stubb – who led the government in 2014-2015 and earlier held several other Cabinet posts – took the top spot in the first round with 27.2 percent, ahead of the eight other candidates. He remains the favourite to win the second round. Haavisto, runner-up in the first round, was Finland’s top diplomat in 2019-2023 and the main negotiator of the country’s entry into NATO. A former conflict mediator with the United Nations and devout environmentalist, Haavisto took 25.8 percent of the votes in the first round. He would become Finland’s first openly gay president if elected. Presidential candidate Pekka Haavisto would not change the Nuclear Energy Act. In Alexander Stubb's opinion, the law could be changed so that nuclear weapons could be moved on Finnish soil. The winner will succeed highly popular President Sauli Niinisto, whose second six-year term expires in March. Niinisto is not eligible for reelection. The country joined NATO in April 2023, breaking with decades of non-alignment to join the Western defence alliance in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Finland’s admission to the alliance drew threats of “countermeasures” from Russia. In December, Finland closed its border with Russia in response to a surge in migrants trying to cross. Moscow denied Finnish charges that it was sending the migrants there. The voting percentage as a whole did not reach record numbers or the level of the first round. 70.7 percent of those living in Finland with the right to vote went to vote. This is 4.3 percentage points less than in the first round. The turnout is slightly better than the previous time in the second round of the presidential election in 2012, when it was 68.9 percent. In 1994 and 2000, however, it reached more than 80 percent. Finns have elected the 13th president of the country, Alexander Stubb . He managed to keep his top position in the polls and the first round until the end. The difference between the second-placed candidate of the association of voters and Pekka Haavisto, supported by the greens, was meager, 3.2 percentage points. Stubb got 98,663 more votes than Haavisto. That is approximately as many as there are voters in Lahti. Stubb was the most popular in a total of 261 municipalities, Haavisto in 48 municipalities. In the first round, Jussi Halla-aho (ps.) was the most popular in 78 municipalities. In the second round, Stubb managed to win 74 of them, i.e. almost all of them. Stubb managed to get behind 102 of the 108 municipalities where Olli Rehn (voter association, center) was the most popular in the first round. Stubb and Haavisto also managed to grab municipalities from each other. In a total of five municipalities, Haavisto was the most popular in the first round, but Stubb won them in the second round: Forssa, Keuruu, Muurame, Savonlinna and Viitasaari. Accordingly, Haavisto now won in three municipalities where Stubb was number one in the first round: Imatra, Kerava and Sottunga. Stubb's support was strongest in Ostrobothnia, where his father's side of the family has its roots. In Luoto, he received up to 80.8 percent of the votes. Haavisto did best in Åland, large university towns and several municipalities in Lapland. He had the highest percentage of support in Kolar, 62.0 percent. Haavisto was supported specifically in big cities. The difference in support for Stubb was very small in terms of percentages, but larger in terms of votes. In rural areas and urban areas, Stubb was clearly more popular than Haavisto. Most of the votes are distributed in big cities, which means that reaching the voters who live there is essential for the final result. This time the result in the city was so even that it can be said that the election was decided outside of them.

https://www.alexstubb.fi/vaaliohjelma Alexander Stubb of The Coallition was elected president of Finland 11February 2024. Stubb got 51.6 percent of the votes and Pekka Haavisto (green) 48.4 percent. Stubb made three promises in his victory speech. First of all, he promised that during the next six years he would "give it my all, every single day". Secondly, he said that he would put the interests of the whole of Finland first, "always and together". "And the third promise is that I will do everything for this beloved country of ours and that peace will be preserved in this time of unrest in this country. Why? Because I love this country." Alexander Stubb, was born on April Fool's Day in 1968. He is said to have been a big baby at birth and weighed 5.5 kilograms. Alexander Stubb's father, Göran Stubb, was the executive director of the Ice Hockey Association. Both Finnish and Swedish were spoken in Stubb's childhood family, Stubb's father Göran Stubb is Swedish-speaking and his late mother Christel Stubb is Finnish-speaking. Sporty from a young age, Alexander Stubb already went to study the world in his high school years. Originally, he dreamed of a career as a professional athlete. After the exchange student year in Florida, Stubb is said to have calmed down, matured and become more comfortable. After high school, Stubb completed his military service in the Uusimaa jaeger battalion in Santahamina during the years 1988–1989. In 2008, Stubb was promoted to corporal on Independence Day. In 1989, Stubb left to study and play golf in the United States, South Carolina, at Furman University. He stopped playing golf in 1991 and completed his Bachelor of Arts degree in 1993 when he graduated from Furman University. After Furman, Stubb continued his studies at the Sorbonne University in France, where he completed a language diploma in 1994. From the Sorbonne, Stubb went on to study in Belgium. In 1995, he completed his Master of Arts degree in political science at the College of Europe in Bruges. He has gathered both national and international experience as well as a broad network of contacts globally and developed an ability to work in Finland’s best interests – always and together. Stubb has had an extensive career within foreign policy in Finland and been member of the Parliament of Finland and the European Parliament. This experience is strengthened by his academic background and the several expert positions he has held. In Finland, he has served as Prime Minister, Minister of Finance, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minister for European Affairs and Foreign Trade, and Member of Parliament. His broad experience in both national and international politics, along with his extraordinary language skills, make him a strong candidate for the President of Finland. Alexander Stubb is a convincing advocate for matters that are important to Finland and Finns globally. Stubb served as Prime Minister of Finland from 2014 to 2015, after which he switched to serving as Minister of Finance. After his final ministerial term, Stubb started to work as Vice President of the European Investment Bank in 2017. During the same year, he became successor of Martti Ahtisaari as the Chair of the Board of Crisis Management Initiative (CMI), a Finnish organisation that works to prevent and resolve conflicts. Since 2020, Stubb has been Director of the School of Transnational Governance at the European University Institute and professor in Florence, Italy. Now, his native country has once more called him, and Alexander Stubb has responded to that call. The family has been Alex’s major resource on his journey. He is married to Suzanne Innes-Stubb, who is a lawyer. The couple have been together for almost thirty years. They have two grown-up children and two rescue cats. Alexander Stubb and Suzanne Innes-Stubb met each other at university in the city of Bruges in Belgium. Stubb has stated that the university is also called the College of Love, because many EU officials have mated there. Innes-Stubb, who received Finnish citizenship in 2017, is from Solihull, which is a prosperous city of about 127,000 inhabitants in the central parts of England. Stubb and Innes-Stubb moved to Helsinki in 2009. Innes-Stubb spoke Finnish for the first time in public last October.

NATO's nuclear deterrent and Finland Juntunen, Tapio; Lavikainen, Jyri; Pesu, Matti; Särkkä, Iro (2024-01-30)

Nuclear weapons and their role in the use of force have returned to the security policy debate. The threat is also the spread of weapons of mass destruction and related dangerous material and know-how (CBRNE threats) to non-state actors as well. New weapons technologies, especially missile defense systems and conventional precision weapons, and their importance in interstate relations are receiving increasing attention. Improving global health security has also become a significant international goal. Finland's security environment changed fundamentally when Russia attacked Ukraine in February 2022. After the attack, Finland reassessed its security political situation and applied for membership of the defense alliance NATO. Finland became a full member of NATO on April 4, 2023. As a member of NATO, the deterrent effect of Finland's defense would be significantly greater than at present, because behind it would be the military power of the entire alliance, ultimately the nuclear weapons of the United States. So far, NATO's deterrence has worked - not a single member country has been subjected to a military attack. Finland's membership in NATO meant that the country joined the nuclear weapons alliance. Nuclear deterrence forms one part of NATO's deterrence complex, and the alliance sees nuclear weapons as the ultimate guarantee of its security. US nuclear weapons form the backbone of NATO's nuclear deterrent, and a small number of its nuclear weapons are stationed in allied countries. NATO's nuclear deterrence policy opens up a new political field for Finland, where there are different options for active participation. This is stated in a study published on Tuesday by the Institute for Foreign Policy and the University of Tampere . As a member of NATO, Finland commits to NATO's nuclear weapons policy and nuclear deterrence. At the same time, Finland will continue to support the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, which promotes international security and limits the spread of nuclear weapons. Finland also works to strengthen the status of nuclear non-proliferation and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Membership would not oblige Finland to take NATO permanent forces, bases or nuclear weapons into its territory. Placing nuclear weapons in the new member states has not even been mentioned in any way. However, as a member of NATO, Finland would commit to NATO's nuclear weapons policies and could, if it wished, participate in the preparation of NATO's nuclear weapons policy, the so-called in the nuclear planning group ( Nuclear Planning Group, NPG). All member countries except France participate in its work. The United States has placed nuclear weapons on bases in Europe. Nuclear weapons are controlled and controlled by the United States. The arrangement is known as nuclear sharing and is in accordance with the provisions of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The United States sees no need to expand or increase the deployment of nuclear weapons in Europe, and there are no discussions in NATO about deploying nuclear weapons to any new member country. The threshold for transferring nuclear weapons is very high, and all nuclear security arrangements are extremely strict. Nuclear weapons are not used or transferred in NATO's nuclear weapons exercises. Haavisto, a former foreign minister who has also served as a United Nations peace negotiator and is known as a human rights defender, has called for a more cautious approach. He wants to maintain Finland’s ban on nuclear weapons on its soil and considers a permanent NATO troop deployment unnecessary for the current security situation. Niinistö stated to Ilta-Sanom on Wednesday that "I have sometimes stated that Finland has no need to open a nuclear weapons discussion... The fact is that NATO only keeps nuclear weapons in a few places in Europe, and none of them are very close to Finland. But another fact is that nuclear deterrence is implemented in many different ways, including submarines and so on. I understand the time very well right now", he stated to Ilta-Sanom. Kaikkonen, on the other hand, stated to the newspaper Suomenmaa for the first time on January 31 that nuclear weapons should not be placed in Finland. - Finland has no need for such a thing and NATO has no plans, Kaikkonen told the newspaper. Sauli Niinistö, answered questions from the media 07 February 2024 at the opening of the Diet. IS asked the president whether the Nuclear Energy Act should be opened and what he thought about the possible import of nuclear weapons to Finland. "I have sometimes stated that Finland has no need to open a nuclear weapons discussion", Niinistö said emphatically. "The fact is that NATO only keeps nuclear weapons in a few places in Europe, and none of them are very close to Finland. But another fact is that nuclear deterrence is implemented in many different ways, including submarines and so on. Time I understand very well already at this moment." Niinistö's position differed from the coalition's presidential candidate Alexander Stubb's position on nuclear weapons. In the HS presidential exam, the candidate of the voters' association Pekka Haavisto (green) challenged Stubb about the nuclear weapons stockpile. In Haavisto's opinion, storing nuclear weapons in Finland is a danger. "It's not that we store or keep nuclear weapons, but we are able to participate in exercises and do planning", Stubb said. According to Stubb, he would sleep better at night if Vladimir Putin did not know that Finland definitely does not have nuclear weapons. Stubb added that he does not think nuclear weapons will come to Finland, but the question is more theoretical. It is now forbidden to bring nuclear explosives into Finland. In Stubb's opinion, this law should be changed. "Sometimes a nuclear weapon is a guarantee of peace", Stubb said. Former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb has won the election runoff against ex-Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto to become Finland’s next president, and take on the task of steering the Nordic country’s foreign and security policy now that it is a member of NATO. With all votes counted on Sunday, the center-right Stubb of the National Coalition Party had 51.6 percent of the votes, while independent candidate Haavisto from the green left got 48.4 percent of the votes. Initial voter turnout was 70.7 percent, Al Jazeera reported. Stubb, who started his political career as a lawmaker at the European Parliament in 2004, won the first round on January 28 with 27.2 percent of the vote ahead of Haavisto with 25.8 percent. He has also led Haavisto in surveys, most recently by 6-8 percentage points. Haavisto, 65, conceded defeat after a projection by the Finnish public broadcaster YLE showing a win for Stubb was released on Sunday night. He shook Stubb’s hand and congratulated him at Helsinki City Hall, where the candidates and the media were watching the results come in. “This has been a fair, great race,” Stubb told Haavisto after the result was clear. “I’m proud that I have been able to run with you in these elections. Thanks for a good race.” The vote marks a new era in Finland, which for decades has elected presidents to foster diplomacy, in particular with neighboring Russia, and opted not to join military alliances in order to soothe tensions between Moscow and NATO. But Finns changed their minds about playing that role after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, and the country joined NATO in April last year. Now under the Western alliance’s security umbrella, the new president will replace Sauli Niinisto, who is retiring after two six-year terms in which he earned the nickname “the Putin Whisperer” for his previous close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Niinisto’s successor will have a central role in defining Finland’s NATO policies, while taking the lead on overall foreign and security policy in close cooperation with the government and while acting as commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Both men campaigned as pro-European and strong supporters of Ukraine, taking a tough stand on Russia. In an interview with the news agency last month, Stubb said there would be no Russian pillar in Finland’s foreign policy for now. “Politically, there will be no relations with the president of Russia or with the Russian political leadership until they stop the war in Ukraine,” he said. Stubb is in favor of deep NATO cooperation, such as placing some NATO troops permanently in Finland and allowing the transport of nuclear weapons through the country. He does not support storing nuclear weapons in Finland, however. “At times, a nuclear weapon is a guarantee of peace,” Stubb said in a debate on Tuesday. Russia has threatened Finland with retaliation in response to its NATO membership and a defense cooperation agreement signed with the United States in December.