Provocation / Provokatsiya

Russian secret services have a peculiar fascination with "provocation" (russian = provokatsiya, Latin = provocatio “challenge”), an aggressive action with the aim of causing a greater conflict. The paranoid style in Rusian politics is the tendency among Russians or the Russian government to be excessively suspicious, distrustful, or fearful of external threats or perceived enemies, finding a foreign plot under every event. A bombing is an undoubted provocation, and it should be on such a grandiose scale in order to plunge faint-hearted people into panic. Provocation is a risky form of social interaction, in many cases a means of fighting an opponent for limited resources and opportunities. Provocation is a multi-stage activity, often accompanied by concealment of the subject’s intentions, violation of moral principles and causing harm to the object of provocation.

During the Cold War, the KGB (Komitet Gosudarstvennoy Bezopasnosti) used actions or tactics to manipulate or provoke individuals or groups into actions that serve the interests of the Soviet government or undermine its adversaries. The KGB was known for using a variety of covert methods to destabilize foreign governments, sow discord within political movements, and gather intelligence. This could include tactics such as spreading disinformation, infiltrating organizations, recruiting agents, conducting espionage, and instigating or exacerbating conflicts.

On Friday 22 March 2024, in the city of Krasnogorsk, Moscow Region, in the Crocus City Hall concert hall, before a concert of the Picnic group, armed people in camouflage opened fire, after which two explosions were heard and the shopping center caught fire. The Investigative Committee of Russia later confirmed the death of 140 people. The law enforcement-affiliated channel 112 reported 150 dead, while RT leader and propagandist Margarita Simonyan and Baza reported 143 dead. Tickets for the concert were sold out; more than 2 thousand people could be in the hall.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was informed about the terrorist attack “in the first minutes of what happened,” and he constantly receives information through all relevant services, the Russian leader’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters. According to him, Putin gave “all the necessary instructions.”

Sergei Goncharov, a veteran of the elite Russian Alpha anti-terrorism unit, says he has no doubt in his mind that Russian investigators will ultimately find the masterminds behind Friday’s deadly attack on Crocus City Hall, and has an inkling about the man most directly responsible.

“According to preliminary data, a group of unknown people from two to five people in tactical uniform, armed with automatic weapons, opened fire on the guards at the entrance to the concert hall. Then they started shooting at the spectators in the foyer,” operational services told Interfax. “At least five people, bearded. They act as prepared and trained militants. At the moment of passage to the building, the guards and people who were standing at the door were killed. Then the main entrance was blocked. The terrorists are armed with AKM assault rifles. Some carry loads of various ammunition. At least two of the attackers have backpacks with them, possibly containing Molotov cocktail,” one of the witnesses described the attackers.

Director of the Russian FSB Alexander Bortnikov reported to President Putin about the detention of 11 people, including all four attackers directly involved in the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall, the Kremlin press service reported. One of the people whose interrogation was filmed says that he was recruited by an unknown person on the social network Telegram, and was promised about half a million rubles for the attack.

The number of deaths during the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall has already reached 144 people , 285 are listed as injured. Most likely, these terrible figures are still not final.

Runup to Crocus City Hall

It is worth noting that on March 7, the US Embassy in Russia and the British Foreign Ministry warned of possible terrorist attacks in Moscow. By U.S. Mission Russia stated on 07 March 2024 "The Embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours. Actions to Take: Avoid crowds. Monitor local media for updates. Be aware of your surroundings."

Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at the Federal Security Service (FSB) board 19 March 2024, called statements by Western structures about possible terrorist attacks in the Russian Federation provocative. “All this resembles outright blackmail and an intention to intimidate and destabilize our society,” he said.

On 19 March 2024 Russian President Vladimir Putin set the FSB the task of harshly suppressing attempts to provoke unrest and ethnic conflicts. “Responsible tasks are facing the units that ensure the protection of the constitutional order and fight extremism,” the head of state pointed out at the FSB board. Putin stressed that “attempts to provoke unrest, interethnic conflicts, violate the rights and freedoms of citizens, use Russophobia and any other ideology of intolerance must be harshly and immediately suppressed.”

On 22 March 2024 Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov called the full-scale invasion of Ukraine a "war" rather than a "special military operation" for the first since the conflict started in 2022. Peskov told the "Argumenty i Fakty" media outlet, which is owned by the Moscow municipal government: "We are at war. Indeed, it started as a special military operation but as soon as a clique was formed and the collective West joined in on Ukraine's side, it turned into war for us." After Russia launched the full-scale invasion, the Kremlin created new laws which fined and jailed people for using the term "war" rather than "special military operation".

Whodunit? ISIS

Ambassador Mark Wallace, CEO of the Counter Extremism Project, stated: “The terrorist attack at a concert hall in Moscow tragically illustrates that ISIS remains an active global terrorism threat. If the ISIS affiliate in Afghanistan, ISKP, indeed carried out this attack, the Taliban is sure to blame for its inability to rein in groups operating from within its borders. The Taliban regime is in control of Afghanistan and any terrorism emanating from the country ultimately remains their responsibility, even if conducted by a group that is their adversary.”

According to BBC expert Mina Al-Lami, there is quite a lot in common between the latest attack in the Moscow region and the January one in Kerman, including the number of victims (more than 100 dead in Russia and about 100 in Iran), as well as the fact that both were committed in countries where IS does not have a significant presence, active affiliates or support base.

Pro-government Russian channels drew attention to the lack of mention of the regional branch of ISIS. In their opinion, this suggests that the group’s statement is a fake. Thus, in the pro-war telegram channel “Rybar” and close to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, it was argued that “statements that the Islamic State allegedly took responsibility for the terrorist attack in Moscow are fake,” since “these messages are not on any of the resources groups or their regional branches.” Before the attack on Crocus City Hall, the activities of the Islamic State (IS) group in Russia were mainly limited to subtle attacks on security forces, The last attack claimed by IS took place in Russia in 2020.

Political scientist Vitaly Volkov wrote "It’s impossible not to notice how the Western media are trying to put into the heads of their citizens the simple idea that the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall was the work of ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in Russia), which means that the roots of evil, the masterminds and the true culprits are hiding where something in the Middle Eastern sands. This background is being dispersed by their Russian colleagues who have already left and remain in the country. There is what is called “working out”.

Volkov claimed ISIS "was recreated in the middle of the last decade with the active participation of the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), as well as the United States and Great Britain. They are the main operators and players here.... even before the start of the SVO, Pakistani intelligence interacted very closely with the SBU through the mediation of the Ukrainian diplomatic mission in Islamabad. After the start of the SVO, arms supplies to Ukraine intensified, primarily shells, but not only....

"It is less known that “volunteers” are recruited in Pakistan for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine under the control of the British, and special interest is shown in suicide bombers and simply militants who have undergone training, including in Afghanistan.... Jamaat Ansarullah, the so-called “Tajik ISIS,” ... is under the priority control of the British. ... And on a paid basis they cooperate with the SBU through the British. It is known that they supplied their fighters and instructors to Ukraine, among whom there was a fairly significant group of Tajiks who took part in the fighting near Artemovsk....

"Ukraine, as one of the possible, although perhaps not the last, initiators of this particular cell, also needs to be considered. She has the right connections, money and motive.... a terrorist attack of this level is always multifunctional. It is clear that a mass murder causes outrage in society and can provoke certain actions. Or prepare a rationale for the actions that are expected from Russia....

"... the reaction in the Western media and among “foreign agents” was simply immediate, and, as far as I understand, it was already prepared. This means that even before the terrorist attack they constructed an explanation for why Russia would do “something” in response to “this.”

The editor-in-chief of the Rossiya Segodnya media group and the RT television channel, Margarita Simonyan, published a video of the interrogation of the second detained terrorist on her Telegram channel. About two weeks ago, a certain “curator Abdulo” contacted him via messenger and offered him a job. Then they met, and the “curator” helped, through supposedly his relatives, to buy the same white Renault in which the terrorists would later escape. According to the detainee, he thought that he would work as a taxi driver, but Abdulo offered him a completely different money plan - namely, to organize a terrorist attack in Crocus.

Four men accused of gunning down scores of people at a concert outside the Russian capital, Moscow, were charged 25 March 2024 with terrorism after appearing in a courtroom showing signs of severe beating. The men – all of whom are citizens of Tajikistan – were charged with committing a group terrorist attack resulting in the death of others. The offence carries a maximum sentence of life imprisonment. Three of the four admitted guilt for the attack after being charged. THe heavily-bandaged fourth man was brought into court in a wheelchair, seemingly unconscious, which may explain his failure to confess his guilt.

Images taken as four Tajik men suspected of committing the Crocus City Hall shooting near Moscow were apprehended in western Russia on March 23 are starkly different from how the men appeared -- battered and bruised -- in court the following day. Russian media had reported that the men were tortured during interrogation by the security services and unverified and brutal videos of the suspects’ interrogations have been circulating on social media. Russian media said that one of the suspects had his ear cut off during interrogation.

Anton Gerashchenko noted the evident torture served: "To remind the average Russians that the Russian state is quite barbaric in its essence and now citizens cannot pretend they had no clue. Moreover, a large part of Russians approved of these scenes of torture. And one more thing: the usual level of violence in Russia is quite high. Home abuse is basically legalized, there is a lot of violence towards women, children, animals etc.) So in order to show the special services working effectively, the level of violence had to be very high - tortures instead of usual beatings. Also, note that nothing has been said or done about changes to prevent such things from happening in the future. This legitimizes what happened."

Elijah J. Magnier wrote "I have followed #ISIS closely since its inception in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, drawing on my fieldwork and studies as a terrorism and counter-terrorism expert and academic and a war journalist. With this background, I question the claim that Islamic State is responsible for the Moscow attack. My scepticism is based on several anomalies and unusual aspects that undermine the authenticity of ISIS's claim.... combined with my professional reluctance based on past experience of claimed attacks in Iran where subsequent communiques were corrected, I am inclined to discount the claim of ISIS involvement in the Moscow attack. Further disclosure of other discrepancies has been withheld to avoid providing insights that could be used to refine future claims."

NEXTA reported "We analyzed the footage of the terrorist attack in "Crocus City Hall" and noticed that in the concert hall, where the bloodiest events of the terrorist attack broke out, there are several people similarly dressed in blue sweatshirt and jeans. If you look at them, you will notice a few atypical actions on their part for such situations." At leat one of these LIttle Blue Men was subsequently identified and exonerated, though others remained on the person of interest list.

Whodunit? Ukraine

Some Russian officials did not say anything about who carried out the attack. However, Russian Senator Viktor Bondarev spoke on this issue : in his opinion, the terrorist attack was carried out by Ukrainians. Senator Bondarev told RIA Novosti that he considers what happened in Crocus City Hall to be a terrorist attack and sabotage on the part of Ukraine.

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said "There is no indication at this time that Ukraine, or Ukrainians, were involved in the shooting," Kirby told reporters. "I would disabuse you at this early hour of any connection to Ukraine." "I'm not aware of any advanced knowledge that we had of this," adding that he did not believe the earlier warning referred to Friday's attack.

The statements by the Russian intelligence service does not directly accuse any individuals in Ukraine of involvement in organizing the attack. However, a number of pro-Russian commentators published such accusations.

Putin laid the groundwork for blaming Ukraine for the Moscow concert hall attack. And in making his first remarks on the assault more than 19 hours after it began, he pledged to punish the perpetrators, ‘whoever they may be, whoever may have sent them.’” Addressing the Russian public the day after the attack, Putin said a “window” had been prepared for the four suspects in the attack to cross the border on the Ukrainian side.

The Kremlin instructed state and government-loyal media to emphasize the possible “Ukrainian trace” in reports about the terrorist attack in the Crocus City Hall concert hall, reports the independent online publication Meduza. Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) has released information about a possible "Ukrainian trace" in connection with Friday's terrorist attack on Saturday morning. The FSB reported that after the crime was committed, the four suspects were preparing to cross the Russian-Ukrainian border and “had relevant contacts on the Ukrainian side.” According to the FSB, they were detained on Saturday night in the Bryansk region on the way to the border.

Larry Johnson, former CIA and US State Department analyst, says the US was quick to acquit Ukraine of any ties to the terrorist attack in Russia's capital. "We still don’t know how many shooters there were. We don’t know what the weapons were. We don’t know what the firearms were. We don’t know what the explosives were. We don’t know how many were actually killed, how many wounded, but yet the US State Department knows that it was not Ukraine," stated former CIA and State Department analyst Larry Johnson, according to Sputnik.

“What happened today was a terrible tragedy, and I think, a link in a chain. Therefore I think Ukraine will reject responsibility. Because nobody publicly approves of terrorist attacks. But in any case, at the moment I don’t see any factor that could take us away from the Ukrainian connection. It could have been some other organization, but I have no doubt that it was provoked by the Nazis of Ukraine,” Sergei Goncharov, president of the International Association of Alpha Veterans – an elite Russian anti-terrorism special ops force subordinated to the FSB, told Sputnik. Specifically, Goncharov believes Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov – who has threatened repeatedly to target Russian civilians, is most directly responsible for Friday’s carnage.

The main suspects in what happened, according to Russian TV, are Ukraine and the United States, and the version with the “Islamic State” is presented as a fake, and outright fakes and conspiracy theories are used. This morning NTV reported "telegram channels started publishing false stories, the source of which is difficult to trace, that the perpetrators of the terrorist attack could be natives of one of the Russian republics. This is already a well-known handwriting of the Ukrainian special services and their information centers.”

NTV released a fake news release at 1 am, in which the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Alexey Danilov allegedly confirms Ukraine’s involvement in the incident. “The involvement of the Kyiv regime in the terrorist attack in the Moscow region was confirmed publicly and on television by the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Alexey Danilov,” the presenter said.

Russia 24 this morning released an interview with the head of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Gennady Zyuganov, who saw the hand of the United States in what happened: “Unfortunately, many of our citizens have not fully realized that the Anglo-Saxons and NATO members are waging a war of annihilation against the Russian world, this wild absolutely disgusting barbaric terrorist attack, he is eloquent evidence of this. First of all, we must pay attention to the fact that this terrorist group was professionally prepared, they did not spare anyone, and at the same time they planned in advance to burn this largest cultural center in Europe. On the other hand, we must pay attention to the fact that this terrorist attack coincided with the anniversary of the 25th anniversary of the bombing of fraternal Yugoslavia, when 1000 planes of these vultures flew into the fraternal republic and drowned it in blood, trying to break it, dismember it and take it apart.”

“Everyone must understand that the war is being waged against us, the war is being waged by those who are professional provocateurs and organizers of terrorism... When they destroyed their two towers in New York, and then blamed it all on Bin Laden, all this is complete nonsense, to organize such a terrorist attack, it took 50 highly qualified specialists, they immediately found the Koran there in a nearby car and set off on a false trail, and then they got into Iraq and stole Libya. And they bombed Yugoslavia, in short, we must understand who we are dealing with,” Zyuganov continued.

“Please note that the action has not yet ended, and the Americans were the first to shed crocodile tears and set everyone off on the wrong trail, that this is supposedly ISIS , but this is not ISIS, and beards can be glued on, and whatever, that this is nonsense, this the work of those who are in prison, they are planning these actions, those who are entrenched in Ukraine, those who are trying to form traitors, all sorts of scoundrels, and so on. “All this is well known,” Zyuganov said, emphasizing that President Putin is “a top-class specialist in this field.”

Channel One reported that “it is striking that the American media, both liberal and conservative, preemptively justify Kiev even before the first accusations, they say, this is simply not Ukrainian style... Aren’t the Americans trying, as they say, to bury the issue by quickly naming ISIS members as guilty?”

The perpetrators and organizers of Friday’s terrorist attack at a Moscow concert venue must be hunted down without mercy, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev insisted. “Terrorists understand only terror in response. No trials or investigations will help if force is not countered with force, and deaths with executions of terrorists and a crackdown on their families,” he wrote, noting this was “the way of the world.” “If these terrorists turn out to be the Kiev regime, we can’t deal with them and their ideological inspirers differently. All of them must be found and mercilessly destroyed as terrorists – including officials of the state that committed such an atrocity,” he added.

“Both the Ukrainian terrorist regime and jihadist organizations receive funding and support in the same place,” said military expert Vlad Shlepchenko. He notes that there is not yet enough information to judge who is behind the attack. However, there really aren't many options. This is either a Ukrainian or pro-Ukrainian terrorist group, or radical Islamists. The expert recalled that in recent days there has been a lot of news about the FSB in different cities smashing cells of pro-Ukrainian extremists and jihadists. Among those detained were supporters of the "Russian Volunteer Corps" (RDK) banned in Russia and the also banned “Islamic State”. The fact is that terror in Russian cities was supposed to be the enemy’s response to the failures of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front, The expert added that it is important to understand that both the Ukrainian terrorist regime and jihadist organizations receive funding and support in the same place. And this place is located on the banks of the Thames, in the city of London.

Russia Today asked "Why is the West so quick to accuse the terrorist organization ISIS, before Moscow makes any official accusation? We are not trying to exonerate this terrorist organization of a crime, whose history is full of nothing less horrific. However, because we know the West’s history of investing in transnational terrorist organizations to achieve goals, it becomes legitimate to ask these questions: Why did the terrorists go to Ukraine after carrying out their crime? Didn't the Ukrainian intelligence director threaten to transfer war scenes to the heart of Moscow? Didn't Washington and London call on their citizens in Russia to be cautious for fear of terrorist attacks, and did they not inform Russian security? In the face of these questions, rushing to accuse ISIS becomes more like a condemnation of its followers, and more like an attempt to suppress what the investigations might reveal, and how do you know what they might reveal?"

Whodunit? Russia

The Main Intelligence Directorate [GUR] of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine stated that the 22 March 2024 terrorist attack in the Moscow region is a deliberate provocation of the Putin regime. GUR representative Andrey Yusov said this in a commentary to Ukrayinska Pravda. “This is a deliberate provocation by Putin’s special services, which the international community warned about. The Kremlin tyrant began his career with this and wants to end it with the same crimes against his own citizens,” said the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate. Russia, in his opinion, is trying to demonstrate that the terrorist attack was allegedly prepared by the Ukrainians in response to Russian aggression.

“This is precisely a provocation of the Russian special services. After all, this is how dictator Putin began his political journey, and this is exactly what he is trying to complete it with. The international community warned its citizens who are on the territory of the Russian Federation about such a scenario. The preparation of these special operations, these terrorist attacks by the Russian special services is not a secret to anyone in the world,” Yusov noted. According to the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate, such operations always have several lines of tasks. However, “ the final wording lies only in a folder in the Kremlin office.”

“We can state that, for its part, Ukraine, while waging a just war against invaders, never resorts to deliberate terrorist attacks against the civilian population, even when it comes to a terrorist state and its territory. And it always leads to the destruction of military targets and objects related to the war,” the intelligence officer emphasized. Yusov added that among the tasks of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is to discredit Ukraine and maximally mobilize Russian society, which is beginning to become disillusioned with the so-called “ special military operation.”

Yusov said that the version spread by the Russian side that the perpetrators of the terrorist attack in the Moscow region fled to Ukraine does not stand up to criticism. “To understand this, you don’t need to be an expert in security issues. There has been a full-fledged war for more than two years now, the border areas are filled with enemy troops, representatives of special services, and law enforcement officers. The border line is mined, surveillance is carried out by all means on both sides, including with aerial reconnaissance. Regions such as Belgorod and the Kursk region, after recent events, have generally become zones of active hostilities. And, of course, this version does not stand up to criticism, everyone in the world understands this, except perhaps the zombified Russian population," said Yusov.

The Russian Freedom Legion said that “ Putin’s terrorist regime” was to blame for the shooting. They added that the events were also a “ bloody provocation.” “ We have already encountered such manifestations of the Kremlin dictatorship since Putin’s first days in power and are not surprised by another bloody provocation. A terrorist attack was being prepared. His media coverage too,” said the legion’s fighters. Soldiers of the Russian Volunteer Corps stated that they were not involved in the shooting in the concert hall of the Crocus City Hall shopping center.

“Russia is behind the shooting in the Moscow region,” whose goal is to escalate the situation against Ukraine, former Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks wrote on social network X, reports LETA. “The initiated attack by “terrorists” in Moscow is a consequence of the lack of Western leadership and insufficient support for Ukraine. Moscow is escalating the West “in the face,” Pabriks wrote. The politician indicated that Russia’s goal is to escalate the situation against Ukraine, as it sees that Western leaders are showing passivity, weakness and complacency.

1999 Apartment Bombings

In early September 1999, less than three weeks after Putin was installed as Prime Minister, a large truck bomb destroyed a five-story apartment building in the Russian republic of Dagestan, killing 64 people. A second, far more powerful bomb was found in a truck near a military hospital in the city, but was defused just 12 minutes before it was timed to explode. And five days after the bombing in Dagestan, a bomb struck an apartment building in Moscow, killing 100 and injuring nearly 700.

Just four days later, another bomb went off in Moscow at 5 a.m., destroying a nine-story apartment building and killing 124 sleeping residents. Later that morning, the speaker of Russia's lower house of parliament, the Duma, Gennady Seleznyov, announced that an apartment building had blown up in the city of Volgodonsk. But the bombing in Volgodonsk did not happen until three days after his announcement

Putin blamed the bombings on Chechen terrorists and immediately ordered Russia's armed forces to retaliate. US Senators John McCain and Marco Rubio, who both served on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, went on the record pointing to evidence that alleges the involvement of the Russian security services in the bombings. Former FSB agent Alexander Litvinenko wrote that the bombings had been the work of the FSB, designed to provide a justification for war in Chechnya and, ultimately, to boost Mr. Putin's political prospects.

A group of Duma deputies and civilian activists created a public commission to investigate. In 2003, one of the Duma deputies and ``most active'' members on the commission, Sergei Yushkenov, was shot dead in front of his apartment building. Another member of the commission, Yuri Shchekochikhin, died from a mysterious illness three months later, likely from thallium poisoning, just before he was scheduled to fly to the United States to meet with investigators from the FBI. Others investigating the bombings, including former FSB agent Alexander Litvinenko and journalist Anna Politkovskaya, were also murdered.

Provocation - Overview

Provocation is a type of psychological manipulation carried out in the interests of the provocateur in order to induce the opponent to take certain actions that entail negative consequences for the actor. Provocation is an action or a series of actions with the aim of provoking a response / inaction of the provoked, usually with the aim of artificially creating in this way difficult circumstances or consequences for the provoked. The subject who commits provocations is called a provocateur. Since provocations are based on the characteristics of human psychology and behavior as a social being, they are studied by psychology and sociology.

In politics, provocations are often aimed at a negative reaction of public opinion towards the enemy . In particular , methods of provocation may include committing unseemly actions under the guise of one’s opponent , inflicting damage on his known opponents , in order to evoke a reaction of sympathy in public opinion. In military affairs, a provocation can be a false retreat , creating the illusion of insecurity of one of your flanks , in order to lure the enemy into a trap. "And if there are no escapes for a long time, then they arrange provocations: some informer is assigned to put together a group “to escape” - and everyone is imprisoned." (A. Solzhenitsyn)

Provocateurs were usually secret employees of special services ( especially security departments of the Russian Empire ) , who incited revolutionaries to commit any criminal acts so that they would then be arrested and convicted . Revolutionaries often called all secret employees ( informants ) of security departments provocateurs , even if their role was limited to reporting information about the revolutionaries .

The Reichstag fire was similarly used by the authorities of the Third Reich to combat communists , Jews and other opponents of Nazi power. The Gleiwitz Incident was a provocation staged by the SS and served as the pretext for the German attack on Poland on September 1, 1939, which marked the beginning of World War II. The Maynila incident became the reason for the outbreak of the Soviet - Finnish War of 1939.

During the Cold War, the Soviet Union frequently engaged in various forms of provocation. These provocations could range from subtle manipulation to overt acts aimed at achieving political, military, or ideological objectives.

• Disinformation campaigns: Spreading false or misleading information to sow confusion, undermine trust in Western institutions, or manipulate public opinion in favor of Soviet policies or objectives.
• Covert operations: Conducting clandestine activities such as espionage, sabotage, and subversion to destabilize foreign governments or support sympathetic movements abroad.
• False flag operations: Carrying out actions that appear to be the work of other entities or nations in order to provoke conflict, justify military interventions, or discredit adversaries.
• Support for proxy groups: Providing assistance, including financial aid, weapons, and training, to insurgent groups, terrorist organizations, or political movements aligned with Soviet interests, often with the aim of destabilizing regions or advancing Soviet influence.
• Military provocations: Engaging in aggressive maneuvers, airspace violations, or other provocative actions to intimidate adversaries, test their responses, or provoke reactions that could be exploited for propaganda or strategic advantage.

It's important to note that the term provocation can encompass a wide range of activities and tactics employed by the Soviet government and its agencies, both during the Cold War and in other historical contexts. These actions were often part of a broader strategy aimed at advancing Soviet geopolitical objectives and promoting the interests of the communist regime.

Recent Provocations

In the fall of 2017, a group of young people created a chat to discuss politics and go out to cafes together. Soon a police provocateur was added there and began to convince other participants to create a political movement. He wrote the charter, rented the premises, came up with symbols - and then he himself handed them over to the police. This is how one of the most famous criminal cases about the extremist community began: the “New Greatness” case. As a result, several people were arrested, and the case became a symbol of police brutality in Russia. The movement itself turned out to be a provocation. One of the key figures turned out to be a citizen of Moldova, who hid his identity under pseudonyms. The “New Greatness” case aroused interest as one of the high-profile criminal cases before the 2018 presidential elections.

Russian media reported 11 December 2023 that "Against the backdrop of the failure of the “counter-offensive,” the Ukrainian special services are preparing an anti-Russian provocation with dangerous biological and chemical substances. The plans were revealed by the Russian Ministry of Defense. We are talking about the poisoning of water sources, food supplies and animal feed in new regions of Russia.... chemicals can be used by the SBU to produce a chemical warfare agent for the purpose of carrying out a limited-scale provocative action on controlled territory in the zone of action of the most actively advancing group of the Russian Armed Forces."

A large-scale provocation with victims and a corresponding picture on CNN and NBC could help Biden in the electoral struggle and maintain the course of supporting the “crumbled” Ukraine, Polish expert Tomasz Gryguch said 23 February 2024. President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said during a meeting on national security: “I quote verbatim (this is already important for the Poles): Polish and American intelligence are preparing a large-scale provocation against the civilian population of Poland, for which Russia and Belarus will be blamed.”

The well-known Polish political expert and writer Tomasz Grygucz has repeatedly warned about the likelihood of provocations on Polish territory and on the Polish-Belarusian border. “If the Belarusian authorities and President Lukashenko openly said that they know and have the plans of American and Polish intelligence, which have been trying to organize a crisis around Belarus for a long time, of course, this is cause for concern. Belarus is a geopolitical problem for the Anglo-Saxons. The Anglo-Saxons would very much like to see In the end, "democracy" in their understanding came to power in Minsk, or, more simply put, simply to destroy Belarus, and Poland, unfortunately for us, is participating in this. I would also draw attention and repeat that it is not the Poles who are responsible for this, but renegades are in power,” Gryguch noted. It is possible to expect a provocation from the Polish and American intelligence services using tactical nuclear weapons in Poland. This point of view was expressed by Polish political scientist and publicist Tomasz Grygucz in the project “In the Topic” on the BELTA YouTube channel 02 March 2024.

Under Soviet rule, particularly during the Stalinist period, paranoia was institutionalized within the security apparatus. The Soviet regime maintained strict control over information, and cultivated a culture of suspicion. In the post-Soviet era, Russia has perceived NATO expansion, Western interventions in former Soviet states, and efforts to promote democracy and human rights in the region as threats to its security and sovereignty.