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Romney May Need Both VA and PA to Win | 33 comments (33 topical)

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I agree this is a factor (none / 0) (#25)
by Democratic Cat on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:29:56 PM EST
But he has accounted for in his model, at least partially. He hasn't accounted for it perfectly, of course, because (among other things) voter suppression efforts may be stronger this year than in past years. But see his post from Saturday, where he talks about systematic bias in the polls.  He doesn't use the words "voter suppression," but such suppression is one of the things that could make the polls diverge from the actual results.  

Note that Nate talks about "systematic bias" in the polls, when actually, in the case of voter suppression, we would say that the actual vote is biased and the polls are more accurate. But in terms of the statistical analysis, for the simple projections he is making, it amounts to the same thing.

Here's hoping everyone votes on Tuesday and everyone's vote is counted!

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Romney May Need Both VA and PA to Win | 33 comments (33 topical)

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