FJM has gone dark for the foreseeable future. Sorry folks. We may post once in a while, but it's pretty much over.
You can still e-mail dak,Ken Tremendous,Junior,Matthew Murbles, or Coach.
Have you ever noticed how often Joe uses the word "but" in his chats? A lot.
Get out your [sic]s, fire up the WTF?! machine and say your 2007 goodbyes, people.
Joe Morgan: We normally, it's not always the best team that wins the World Series, but the team that's playing the best at that time. But that clearly was not the case this year. Not only is Boston the best team, but it was also playing the best.
Ken Tremendous: WTF?
Mike (Boston): Hey Joe, which Red Sox team do you think was better 2004 or 2007?
Joe Morgan: Well, I think the '07 is better. When you go down each player, trying to pitch to them, this team is far more difficult to pitch to. Each and every player is a different type of hitter. That makes it more difficult for the pitcher to pitch to them. They all contribute something to the team. I think this team is much better.
2004 Red Sox: 98 wins, .832 team OPS (which I believe was an all-time record; or maybe it was just a record SLG)
2007 Red Sox: 96 wins, .806 team OPS
The 2007 team may have been better, but it wasn't because they were a better hitting team. Researching this took me 25 seconds.
Brad(NM): Good morning Joe. Do you believe the Yankees hired the right man for the job? Do you think they showed a lack of loyalty to Mattingly?
Joe Morgan: I don't know whether Girardi is the right guy or not, because I don't know much about him as a manager. I definitely thought Don Mattingly was going to get the job. I don't know if it was a lack of loyalty, because in their mind, Girardi was a Yankee too.
KT: Don't know, don't know, don't know. Well done. I like that "in their mind" Girardi was a Yankee. Not "in light of the fact that he played for the Yankees" Girardi is a Yankee.
Bill (Chicago): Who would you have given the MVP to? Mike Lowell was obviously deserving, but so was Papelbon, Ellsbury, Beckett, Pedroia etc.
Joe Morgan: Well, I voted for Mike Lowell. I had a vote. But I also said on my broadcast that they had several players who were MVPs. But I thought Lowell stood out more because he had more clutch hits. His hits had more meaning than the others' on a consistent basis. I thought Pedroia would have won if he had a better Game 4, but he didn't.
KT: Joe and "Consistent" -- Consistently Wonderful. (Three "but"s in this answer, too.) I think I would've given it to Lowell too, then Papelbon, then Ellsbury. Fun Fact: the Red Sox' team OPS for the World Series was .936!
Jim (NYC): Do you feel it will be tough for the Rockies to concetrate
KT: Thank you, Jim.
next year after the run they had? They weren't exactly consistent
And again.
this season...running hot and cold.
Joe Morgan: Well, if you're asking if I think they'll win the division next year, I say no. Your assessment is right on the mark. No one even noticed them going into the last month of the season. Then all of a sudden they got hot. They were under .500. But they got hot and won the wild card. But I do think they were hurt by the layoff. But even without the layoff, they were not nearly as good a team as Boston.
I'm no 2nd grade-level expository writing instructor, but I think that the last three sentences are poorly composed. But can you figure out what I mean? But I bet you can, but if you look hard. But what if you can't? But I bet you can.
Bill (PA): John Farrell is interviewing with the Pirates this week. How do you think he will fare as a manager? Is he the right man for the Bucos?
Joe Morgan: It's the same way I answered about Girardi. I do not know enough about him to say if he'll be a good manager or not. I really can't give an honest opinion there, because I don't know him well enough.
KT: Why should you? It's not like he's a high-profile assistant coach on the World Series champion. Nor is it like you're an A-team baseball analyst on the #1 baseball network, who just covered the World Series, which just featured the team he coaches for. Nothing to see here. Move along, people. Just keep walking. Move! I said move! Move dammit! (sprays tear gas on people gawking at Joe's ignorance of the sport he covers) See? Now look what I had to do. I didn't want to do that, but you refused to be reasonable. Now clean yourselves up.
Cc (Atlanta): Renteria to the Tigers... ever heard of the young guys the Braves got back? It's an obvious salary dump but his replcement, Yunel Escobar, is a rising star.
Joe Morgan: I'm a big fan of Renteria. He's one of the most underrated clutch hitters in the game. I'm a big fan of his. The Braves want to play Escobar. They think he can be a good shortstop. They can save money. That's what they're doing. But I'm a big Renteria fan. I think he'll help the Tigers. He'll make them a stronger lineup. I like the move for the Tigers.
KT: Apparently, Joe stepped out of the room for a moment, and retarded Raymond Carver took over the chat. Here is a poem I wrote using that previous paragraph's worth of sentences.
I'm a big fan of Renteria. I think he'll help the Tigers. I'm a big fan of his. I like the move for the Tigers. But I'm a big Renteria fan. He's one of the most underrated clutch hitters in the game. He'll make them a stronger lineup. I'm a big fan of his.
The Braves want to play Escobar. They think he can be a good shortstop. They can save money. That's what they're doing.
(I reused one sentence to make the stanzas even.)
Jimmy (Springer nm): Will the Yankees be in contention next year with Girardi or will it be a couple of years
Joe Morgan: Well, the problem in baseball is, even if you say you're going to rebuild and be back in a couple of years, there's no guarantee that they will be back.
Yes there is. It is called: unlimited resources. There is no "rebuilding." They are losing ARod and maybe Pettitte/Posada, but chances are they re-sign Rivera, and for all we know they're working on a deal for Santana and cannot extend him with the money they're saving elsewhere. They are in contention right now.
If they lose, Rivera, Posada, Pettitte, they won't be in the playoffs next year. They do have some young pitchers that they need to develop, but at the same time your veterans are getting older.
Players aging over time: a problem unique to the Yankees, apparently.
brett (philly): what can the phillies do to make the next step and be a true contender?
Joe Morgan: I think the Phillies are a true contender already. [...] The Reds, under Dusty Baker, are in a similar situation in that the ballpark plays so small, it's hard to have a good pitching staff. The Reds are going to have to outscore opponents.
Having to outscore opponents to win: a problem unique to the Reds, apparently.
Jeff (Iowa): What do you think of the Reds hiring Dusty Baker?
Joe Morgan: Well, Dusty is a proven winner.
"On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me." He brings that status with him - just like Torre takes with him to the Dodgers, if he goes there. But I do think it's difficult to win in a ballpark that plays so small, unless you have the most talented players in the game. I think Dusty's a great manager
"On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."
and he will do a good job there. The Reds will be a better team than last year.
Well, they were 72-90, and their ExWL was 74-88. It's entirely possible they'll be better next year without anything changing at all. However. If you're telling me that the Reds will be better because Dusty Baker is their manager, then I disrespectfully disagree.
Glenn clarifies the Red Sox' Team OPS record-setting, which I vaguely remembered but was too lazy to look up:
It appears it was the 2003 Red Sox who set the all-time team slugging record (.491), along with an .851 team OPS - both numbers outpacing the champs' totals from a year later. The '04 team's pitching does appear to have been markedly better (116 ERA+ and 1.29 WHIP, compared to 104/1.36 the year prior), and the '07 team's better still (123/1.27).
I'm guessing this is the last one. If so, it was a helluva ride. Can you believe it was just a few short months ago that we first had a 2007 JoeChat? Best of luck, seniors!
Joe Morgan: It was a very good ALCS going seven games, however, there were not many close games besides the 4-2 Indians win.
Ken Tremendous: How about Game 2, that went 11 innings? The final was not close, but the game was won in extra innings. How about Game 7, wherein the Sox were barely hanging on to a 3-2 lead in the 7th when Kenny Lofton was inexplicably held up at 3rd on a ball Manny Ramirez was probably planning to lob back to second? That was a close game. Game Five was 2-1 through six. So that's four out of seven games I would describe as "close," or at least "tense."
The one thing I learned is that Boston is a better team than they appeared to be when the series first started.
You mean, better than a team that had co-led the majors in wins and swept the ALDS and won Game 1 10-3? What are you even talking about?
Trent (Cleveland): I must admit I am disappointed with the Indians ultimate demise, how can I not be with a 3-1 lead in the ALCS, but what do you forsee over the next few seasons for the tribe? I think we are in great shape.
Joe Morgan: Well anytime you get to Game 7 of the ALCS you are in good shape, and they learned a lot from this series. But you have to rememeber, baseball is a sport that you cannnot just say wait till next year, because that can become the battle cry for years. But I think Cleveland is a very good team, and along with Boston one of the top 2 teams in the AL.
KT: "Rememeber" is the new "concetrate." He makes that typo a lot. Also, your hard-earned entertainment dollars are helping to pay the salary of a man who declares the ALCS runner-up as "one of the top 2 teams in the AL."
Jason (DC): Joe -- can the Rockies overcome the 8 day layoff (and the snow)? Seems like it could be a challenge to bring the proper concetration and consistency, after their break.
KT: Ahhhh, Jason. Concetration and consistency. Bless you.
Joe Morgan: The long layoff is a big challenge which they could not control. What they need is for two or three guys to step up in Boston to help the team get their timing back. It is a huge challenge, however, especially with what a roll they were on.
I would like a video demonstration of the proper way to "step up in order to help one's team get its timing back." What would that entail, I wonder? What kind of non-baseball-related sorcery is this? What kind of b'witchèd blacke magik must one conjure? Or are you just saying: "Some guys need to hit well?" In which case: why didn't you just say that?
Kyle (NJ): Hey Joe, can the Brewers win the Central next year?
Joe Morgan: Well they could have wonn it this year! But the Brewers played as poorly as the Cubs and did not make it. I think they can win it next year, but they need to be more consistent.
Bingo bango bongo! Congratulations, everyone. This is the fifty millionth use of "consistent" in JoeChat history. Everyone on this blog gets a free dozen donuts, compliments of our friends at Dunkin' Donuts.
That horrible stretch this season cost them the division. But I do expect them to be one of the main challengers. But with Baker in Cincinnati I expect the Reds to be in the mix as well.
Yes. The 72-90 Reds will be much better next year...because Dusty Baker is managing them. Dusty Baker. Dusty Baker is managing them now, so they will be better. Dusty. Baker.
SprungOnSports (Long Island): Can the Rockies stop Josh Beckett? What do the hitters have to do to get to a player that has been lights out this postseason?
Joe Morgan: Well the Rockies have more good hitters/consistent hitters than Cleveland. I think the Rockies lineup will be a little tougher for Beckett, but he is and ace and can beat anyone.
KT: 50,000,001 for "consistent." And I guess "what they have to do" to get to Beckett is: "...?"
Aaron (houston): What do the 'stros need to do to get back on track next year?
Joe Morgan: Well they need offense. Their offense made the pitching look worse than it was. They had no consistency in that lineup outside of Lee.
50,000,002.
They need to be able to score runs consistently.
50,000,003. This is exciting!
Hugh (WPB, Florida): How exciting is Dustin Pedroia?? Do you see a little bit of yourself in the way he plays? I think he can be a very consistent hitter for years to come.
KT: Sorry, Hugh. This nice bit of JoeBaiting comes too late. He's already consistency'd out.
Jason (DC): Joe -- with a fully healed Gary Sheffield and all the other big guns coming back, will Detroit dethrone Cleveland in the AL Central next year?
KT: Gary Sheffield, who makes Joe Morgan's heart race like no other, is going to be 39 next year. He's coming off his worst season in years -- possibly ever -- one that was filled with injuries. One might -- were one thinking clearly -- be tempted to suggest that the key to the AL Central race next year (a race that features Carmona, Sabathia, Verlander, Bonderman, Sizemore, Martinez, Polanco, Zumaya, Betancourt, Hafner, Guillen, et al.) does not really depend all that much on Gary Sheffield and his 12.9 VORP.
Joe Morgan: It is hard to say, but Detroit with Sheffield is a much better team. I think that is a very good question, but you never know in basbeall. A team may emerge out of nowhere. But yes, Detroit and Cleveland at the moment have to be the favorites if everyone is healthy.
One might also be tempted, were one Joe Morgan to write: "Hard to say...good question...you never know...some other team might also be good...but given certain conditions..."
Ed (Boston): Joe what did you think of the Red Sox coming back from a 3-1 defecit?
Joe Morgan: It was not as dramatic as the 3-0 comaeback against the Yankees. But when I was in Boston, earlier there was a feeling amongst the fans that Boston would win. That feeling was felt by the players as well. They beat Sabbathia and Carmona to get back, and when you beat two aces like that it says a lot about your team. Beckett beat Sabathia on his own.
Josh Beckett's hitting stats against C.C. Sabathia in Game Five: 10-29, 2 BB, 1 HR. Hell of an effort at the plate from Josh Beckett.
Beckett had nothing to do with beating Sabathia. He beat the other guys on the team. That is how baseball works.
Craig (Richmond): Joe what does Cleveland need in order to take them to that next level, ie and World Series birth?
Joe Morgan: They were one game from that next level, so they do not need to do too much... They do not need to make a lot of moves, they just need to learn how to close out a series.
KT: There's a class you can take for that at the Y, I think. Should be no problem. I might also recommend trying to trade for another starter, maybe, or looking to replace Kenny Lofton, or moving Betancourt to the closer/relief ace role and picking up or developing another reliever. But definitely the most important thing is to take that class on how to close out a series. Because most people just think you need to win the fourth game, but there's a lot more to it than that, and this class will teach you everything. It's like $349/person but it's totally worth it.
Joe Morgan: I have to run. But enjoy the Game1!
KT: Those of you who spend a lot of time on the internet know that it is very common for excited people accidentally to type the numeral 1 when ending a sentence, often mixed in with exclamation points. (Ex. "OMG Zac Efron is the dreamiest!!1!!!1!!!!!") My question is: was Joe typing "Enjoy the Game" and accidentally typed the "1" as if he were a young girl talking about Zac Efron, or did he write "Enjoy the Game 1!" and forget to leave a space?
This is a question I will spend all day trying to figure out.
What a week. Mrs. Tremendous and I moved last Sunday, to a slightly larger house right outside Partidge, KS, in South Hutchinson. The friendly confines of Partridge were a little too confining...because Mrs. Tremendous is expecting! That's right, friends. It is my great joy to announce that Mrs. Tremendous is with child, and that little Timothy McCarver Joseph Morgan HatBoy Tremendous will arrive in our world sometime next Spring. I am as proud as a basement-dwelling Insurance Pension Plan Monitor can be.
But back to what's really important: this blog. In my distracted absence, I have neglected my duties, and that ends today. Let's check in with Joe, as he checks in with his perpetually-confused readers.
Joe Morgan: It's been a very unusual postseason, with all the sweeps. They surprised me because most of the teams were evenly matched. It just tells how a bounce here and there or a call here or there can change everything.
Ken Tremendous: Please remember that when you talk about how important wins are as a pitching stat.
Jon (Audubon, NJ): What should the Rockies concetrate on over the next 9 days until the World Series starts?
KT: Oh, Jon. Your use of "concetrate" warms my heart.
Joe Morgan: It's going to be difficult to stay sharp, because hitting is something you need to keep your timing on. It's difficult to do because unless you're facing game action, it's tough to keep your timing. Intrasquad games don't do it very well because there is not the same intensity. It's probably easier for pitchers to stay sharp. In any case, it'll be difficult for them to stay at the level they're playing at now.
KT: Possibly. Also, their pitchers get a ton of rest and they can travel comfortably and have won 20 out or 21 or something, so they're sitting kind of pretty, I'd say. Who knows. What do you guys think of "Plaschke" as a first name?
Jug (Benicia): Which team has the best home field advantage Joe? Rockies, Red Sox or Indians? Each park is so unique?
Joe Morgan: I would say the Red Sox and Rockies because of the way the game is played in their parks. Fenway has the Green Monster, which they take advantage of, and balls fly out of Coors, so positioning is important. Those ballparks confer a unique advantage to the home team.
KT: Balls fly out of Coors Field...so positioning is important. It is important to position the outfielders in the left field bleachers. Then they can catch those balls. Also, the Indians, Red Sox, Rockies, and D-Backs had nearly identical home-away records this year. For what it's worth.
Seth (Denver, CO): Mr. Morgan, how do you feel about the Rockies current run compared to what you and the Reds accomplished in '76? Even as a Rockies fan I must admit the Reds' run in the playoffs, at least to this point, is more impressive, but do you see similarities in how the Rox have handled themselves during this streak and the great Reds' team that went undefeated in the postseason?
KT: How is Joe going to claim that being 6.5 out on Sep. 15th and 2 out with 2 to play and then winning a one-game playoff and sweeping two postseason series is not as impressive than what the 1976 Reds did? Let's find out!
Joe Morgan: I have to say that the Rockies' streak is very impressive, because in my opinion, a lot of the teams that they played were equally matched up against them. To win seven games against teams that are your equal is more impressive than what the Reds did, because that team set a lot of records and were "the team". The only other difference would be that the Rockies did it against teams they were familiar with.
Ah. Very clever. He says that the 1976 Reds were so good that nothing they did was really impressive because they were just so damn good.
Jeremy (Blacksburg, VA): how long do you think the game will be between slow pitching byrd and wakefield?
Joe Morgan: I don't think it'll be five hours and fifteen minutes, but obviously it will not be played at a fast pace. Wakefield will throw a lot of pitches, will walk some guys, and let up some steals, and Byrd will pitch carefully. It will not be a faster-paced game like last night's was.
KT: Time of game: 3:12. Time of previous game: 3:28. Why do people keep insisting that Wakefield is a slow pitcher?
Ryan (San Francisco): These Sox are killing me. Their offense is just not playing consistent baseball. Maybe they should stop trying to blast HR's and try a little small ball. With the number of guys in that lineup who could potentially reach Coopertown one day, there is not excuse to only get two runs off of Westbrook.
KT: Oh, Ryan. Such lovely Joe-baiting. Coopertown. Small ball. Maybe I'm just emotional because my wife has produced an heir to the Tremendous family name, but...God love ya!
Joe Morgan: I talked to David Ortiz yesterday, and this reflects back to the question about the Rockies and their 9-day layoff. David Ortiz told me they'd only played five games in 14 days. That doesn't keep you sharp as a hitter, although he's hit the ball as hard as possible each time. That could be part of the problem, having that many layoffs of games in between. They'll have another off day after today. It will be a problem for the Rockies as well.
KT: Indians don't seem to be having a problem. Maybe it's...good pitching? Nah.
Pete (Miami): Is Todd Helton a Hall of Fame player?
Joe Morgan: A Hall of Fame player is supposed to be the dominant player at your position during your era, so you could answer the question yourself using that criteria. Has he been the dominant first baseman in his era?
KT: I'm thinking Joe means: no, he is not. Now, Helton is only 33, and obviously the next few years will tell us yea or nay. But his career line is .332/.430/.583, and his career EqA is .315, and he's an excellent fielder. I'd say he has a decent shot. How about "Big Red Machine Tremendous?" Is that good?
Brosef (NJ): Is Kaz Matsui this years David Eckstein in the playoffs?
Joe Morgan: Any time you go into the playoffs or World Series, guys who are unheralded have a chance to stand out more, because they will pitch to them more. David Ortiz has walked a lot of times, for instance, so they will not pitch to him like they will to a guy like Kaz Matsui.
KT: For the last time, (not really), David Eckstein is heralded. He's wildly heralded. Everyone in the sports journalism world heralds David Eckstein. He is actually way way over-heralded. How else can a guy who was 8-41 with 2 extra-base hits in the 2006 NLDS and NLCS emerge from that postseason and be considered a clutch playoff hitter?
Andrew (Toledo): Does Ryan have a counting problem, I only see one sure fire bet for the Hall from the Sox (Manny) and one maybe (Ortiz). Is the Red Sox lineup overrated?
Joe Morgan: I'm starting to wonder if a lot of lineups are overrated during the regular season. The Yankees scored tons of runs not just this year, but last year as well, and they got shut down in the playoffs both years.
KT: You think the Yankees' line-up was overrated? Seriously? How? How can that be? They had seven regulars score 90+ runs. They led the league in runs. They led the league in hits. They led the league in HR and were 3rd in walks. They led the league in OBP, SLG, and thus OPS, and OPS+. They hadn't seen Carmona or Sabathia at all during the regular season***, and lost a best-of-five series to those dudes, and your conclusion is that the Yankee offense is overrated?!
Mike, Brunswick Ohio: Who do you think wins? Cleveland or Boston?
Joe Morgan: The edge goes to Cleveland, because I think their pitching is set up better than Boston's is.
And because when you wrote this they were up 2-1 in the series.
Jon (Audubon, NJ): Why do some players like Eric Byrnes get a pass when they have a bad series because they play the game hard, but guys like Alex Rodriguez get blasted by the fans and media for not being clutch? Shouldnt all players be judged the same way, as one series is such a small sample size of overall performance?
KT: Jon, you're insane. Take this "logic" and shove it, friend. Leave baseball analysis to the experts, and go look at some birds or something. Am I right?
Joe Morgan: Unfortunately, the world is not fair, and baseball is the same way. If you look at it another way, Jeter was three for 17 and grounded into three key doubles plays, but there's nothing said about him because he's done well before. You're right; Byrnes and the other players should be judged the same way on a series-by-series basis, but it's not the way of the world. Personally, I think all players play hard, especially in the playoffs, but players like Byrnes, who I like a lot, have effort that is easier to see than someone else's.
I'm suspicious. I don't think Joe wrote this. I think he had a coughing fit and Rob Neyer snuck into the booth or something.
Joe Morgan: The one thing I have noticed is that I don't think the umpiring has been as consistent in these few games that I've seen. I'm not used to it being this inconsistent. The umpring has been a little erratic in the games that I've seen, though I have not seen each and every game. Even some of the calls on the bases have not been consistent. Thanks for your questions!
If this is the last JoeChat of the year, I am very glad that we got a send-off with three "consistents" in one paragraph. At least he's consistent.
Also, by "consistent" here, I think he means "accurate."
The Yankees did, in fact,face Carmona twice during the regular season, once in each of the two series the clubs played. You can look things like this up on the Internet:
It's not particularly egregious. But savor it, people. Only a few left in 2007.
Andrei (NY, NY): HI Joe, Always love watching you on Sunday Night Baseball. I was wondering what your thoughts were on momentum heading into the postseason? Is it that important?
Joe Morgan: I've always thought it meant a lot, heading into the postseason, but last year, the Cardinals got in on the last day. Detroit played poorly down the stretch as well, and yet both of them made it to the World Series. Maybe the game has changed enough so that momentum doesn't mean as much as it did before.
Ken Tremendous: Someone with more time and a better work ethic than I might do some research into losing/winning streaks for playoff teams in September. I bet there's no correlation between winning streaks in September and WS wins in October. Remember when the Yankees lost like 19 out of 22 (I am wildly guessing) down the stretch in like 2000 and ended up with like 87 wins... and won the World Series? In a small sample size of one example that I kind of remember and won't bother to look up, I have just proved my theory.
Dan (Bronx, NY): Hey Joe, what do you think of Mike Mussina's turnaround? It looks to me like hes been able to concetrate better on the mound lately.
KT: Excellent use of "concetrate" Dan. Well done.
Joe Morgan: I don't know what to make of his turnaround. He is a veteran who has had ups and downs before, so he should know how to go back to fundamentals and get his game together. I'm surprised it took him so long to do that. We'll have to see how he pitches in the playoffs. As a veteran, he was able to figure it out for these last few starts.
KT: I like how there's no mention of the fact that Mussina took like a month off. Maybe that helped?
Doug (Mechanicsburg, Pa): With a week left, two teams tied and one team a game back for the NL Wild Card, Who do you think will win it Joe?
Joe Morgan: I would hedge towards philadelphia, but we know things change on a daily basis. I think Philly can win it with their offense. The Padres need to win it with their pitching, and Chris Young and Greg Maddux have not been pitching well. The Rockies have done a great job of getting back in the race, but I don't see them getting back in it.
KT: The Rockies have done a great job of getting back in the race. But: I don't see them getting back in [the race]. Solve that one, fuckers!
Liz ( Big Apple): I think it's unfair for Willie Randolph to take the fall of the Mets issues, and if they don't get in the playoffs why should he get fired and not omar?
Joe Morgan: Neither one will get fired, but I agree with you 100 percent. It's amazing to me; they have this same pitching staff all year, and he's in first place. Now that they don't know who will start day-to-day, it's his fault? I still think they will win their division, but I'm amazed at the heat he has taken when he's had so many injuries on his team. He should get more credit for leading that team to first place. He should be Manager of the Year, not the guy taking the heat. He and Bob Melvin of the Diamondbacks have done the best job managing in the league. KT: The Manager of the Year Award is a dumb species in an already dumb genus (awards), but if you're going to give it out, you pretty much have to give it to Melvin, right? Give it to the guy whose team inexplicably outperformed its pyth by like 84 games. Because: that fact is probably crazy luck, and if they played another 162 game season with the same crew they'd probably go 78-84, but on the off chance his managing somehow had anything to do with it, he wins. I just don't know how you can give it to a guy with a huge payroll whose team has fallen apart at the seams down the stretch. Justify that.
D. Malphabet (Bronx, NYC): Should the Yanks play Giambi at first base, or stick with a better defender for the playoffs?
Joe Morgan: It depends on who you're playing. If they end up playing Cleveland, where Carmona and Sabathia will start, runs will be at a premium, so you wouldn't put Giambi there. If you'll play a team like the Angels, then I think you have to try to score runs, because the Angels pitching staff won't shut you down.
KT: Just to reiterate: if you play the Indians, runs will be at a premium. But -- and here's where the difference lies -- if you play the Angels, then you will have to try to score runs.
Edge slightly to Cleveland, I guess, but it's thin. Game three starters are who, Westbrook or Byrd, and Weaver, maybe? Seems like a push. Bullpens? Both pretty good. I'd take KRod over Joe Borowski and his like 10.87 WHIP.
Mike(NY): Do you think the Mets should bring back Moises Alou or go with the kids in the outfield?
Joe Morgan: Moises Alou can hit.
KT: Moises Alou is 41, makes $7.5m, and has missed half the season with injuries. Yes, he is hitting .345/.396/.529. Which is amazing, really. But he is 41, and has missed half the season with injuries. Not too many 42 year-olds with awesome seasons.
He's always been a great hitter. It'll depend on what they end up with pitching-wise. If they can get good pitching, you need to go with defense out there. If not, you need offense. He's the most consistent
KT: Emphasis mine.
hitter on that ballclub. It all depends on the team makeup.
A lot also depends on whether he will turn 42 next year, which he will.
Paddy (St. Louis, MO): Hi Joe, I've heard 2008 will be Vin Scully's last season in the booth. Do you have any Scully stories, and will you have him as a guest next year?
Joe Morgan: I have stories, but I can't tell them!
KT: One hundred dollars to anyone with an awesome story involving Joe and Vin Scully. Two hundred if it involves cocaine.
Now pay attention, because this next one is fantastic.
Matt H. Denver, CO: Who do you think should win the NL MVP?
Joe Morgan: It hasn't been decided yet. If I had to pick one guy right now, it would be Jimmy Rollins. The MVP award doesn't say "most valuable on a winning team", it says "most valuable". I will contradict myself here by saying that if the Phillies make the playoffs, I would pick Rollins, and if the Brewers do so, I would pick Prince Fielder.
This is just loony. He typed the first part, and then spent the time to type out the contradiction part, then looked at it, decided against editing the first part, and hit "publish." A weird, diseased mind.
Phillip (Baton Rouge, LA): If you could have one player on your team past or present, excluding yourself, who would you want to go into the payoffs with?
KT: First of all, Phil, how could Joe not be on his own team? Second: don't look. Guess who he says.
Joe Morgan: I guess I would say Willie Mays, because he's the greatest player I've ever seen.
Were you right? I guessed Concepcion. He jujitsued me.
Joe Morgan: By next Tuesday, when we have the chat, we'll know who's in the playoffs, who's the NL MVP, and have a lot of other answers.
KT: No, as many of our readers have already pointed out, we will not. The awards are handed out post-postseason.
Matt (Brooklyn, NY): Mike Mussina. Wow, what a comeback! How on earth did he get his fastball up to 90 again? Will he or Hughes, or Kennedy (who has also been impressive), be in the postseason rotation?
Joe Morgan: I talked to Joe Torre before the game on Sunday and he has no idea what the rotation will be. And I have no ideas how he got his fastball back up there between starts, but he did and won the game.
Ken Tremendous: I like it when he's brash. I have no idea! Beats me! And as for the issue of the Yankees' postseason rotation -- I'm not even going to guess! Name as many people as you want -- Mussina, Hughes, Kennedy...I'm not going to guess on even one person. Because I don't have to. Because there are no repercussions for my actions. Next, please.
Derrick Cleveland Ohio: Did Cleveland basically clinch it last night? First Cavs, here comes the Tribe, and let's go Browns!
Joe Morgan: Well no one has clinched, but they are in better position and if you are a betting man you are feeling good about Cleveland. But Cleveland could lose a couple here, so don't get ahead of yourself. Obviously Cleveland looks good, but the Mets looked good a week ago.
KT: Yes, let's not get ahead of ourselves. For example, this site says that there is only a 99.96% chance of the Indians making the playoffs. So be cool, everyone. No celebrating yet.
Mr. Met (Queens, NY): Can you come teach my Mets how to play defense Mr. Morgan?
Joe Morgan: Too late to teach them! Defense is like hitting, it is contagious.
KT: Finish this old-school SAT question.
Defense is like _________. It is contagious.
A. pink eye B. seeing someone yawning and then yawning yourself C. a contagion D. Something that is not "contagious," like "hitting."
When you make mistakes pressure builds up. But it comes down to the individual and his ability to concetrate.
Okay, I'm not altering these at all. And I think -- as I asked in last week's chat -- that Joe believes the word is "concetrate."
Right now the Mets are not concetrating
See?
well on the task at hand. But if you look at the Mets, their offense is giving them the lead, even with the Phillies, and they just can't hold it. That is where the problem lies.
I think their problem lies in the fact that they're trying to concetrate, which is not a thing, and it's frustrating them because it isn't a thing you can do.
Adam, NY: Should Eric Gagne make the Red Sox post-season roster?
Joe Morgan: They put him in that position, and if they are not going to have him on the roster they better make the change today. You cannot let him pitch till the end of the season and then insert someone else in there, who is not used to that position.So if that is what you have to do, do it now, because the new pitcher needs to feel comfortable there.
KT: Good thing they have Okajima, who was the 8th inning guy all year. And Mike Timlin, who was the 8th inning guy for years before that. And Delcarmen, who has pitched in the 8th inning before. So, good analysis -- you only failed to mention three other options they have.
Josh W NY, NY: Who is going to win the NL West - Arizona or San Diego?
Joe Morgan: Well I do not have a crystal ball.
KT: What?! Then what is the point of these chats? I thought the whole point was that you were the one human in the world who could literally divine the future. That's what it says on the ESPN InSider page -- here, look:
Wednesday, September 19
The Morning Buzz, 10 a.m. Fantasy sports w/ Eric Karabell, 11 a.m. NFL with Christ Mortensen, 11 a.m. MLB Hall of Famer and Crystal Ball Owner and Augurer and Knower of That Which Is To Come; He Who Sees Forward, He Who Knows Forward, He Whose Pliant Mind Stretches Hither and Yon Across the Yawning Chasms of Time, He Who Is Everywhere and Nowhere and Somewhere... Joe Morgan, 11:15 a.m. Page 2's DJ Gallo, Noon.
Diego San Juan, Puerto Rico: Who do you like for the AL Cy Young Award?
Joe Morgan: I would say Beckett, Sabbathia, and Lackey are my top three. And as with the MVP, whoever steps up down the stretch will probably get it. And the great thing is that all three of them are playing in meaningful games. All these guys have to win games in order to ensure their team's success.
KT: Up-to-the-second chances the following teams make the playoffs:
Time for Beckett, Sabbathia, and Lackey to step up!
Ryan (NJ): When is Manny Ramirez expected back? He could certainly jump-start the Red Sox just in time for the playoffs...
Joe Morgan: Manny's absence is the reason they are struggling. In clutch, tough sitautions, Manny is the guy you want there along with Ortiz. The young kids looked good for a while but Manny need to be in the lineup for them to be a championship team. I am not sure when he will be back; I heard Thursday, but I am not sure.
KT: Who's your source on that? Because the Sox are off Thursday. But thanks for the update.
dave (milwaukee): No Prince Fielder for NL MVP? Taking nothing away from the other 3 who are all great. But the man is not only putting up huge numbers but he is that teams leader.
Joe Morgan: You are 100% correct. Today's my birthday and I am older and I went blank. I agree with you 100%.
KT: How am I going to work in that it's my birthday? How am I going to work in that it's my birthday? How am I going to work in that it's my birthday? How am I going to work in that it's my birthday? There it is! The opportunity! Go!
Joe Morgan: Thanks for chatting with me today. I am looking forward to some great finishes as the season draws a close. Chat with you next week!
Ignoring a nationwide call for a goofiness cease-fire, Joe Morgan has decided to hold another chat. Alfonso (Boston): Hello Joe. How much does Manny Ramirez's defense hurt the team? Would they be better off trading him in the offseason so Jacoby Ellsbury could play everyday.
Joe Morgan: It seems like when we bring young people up at the end of the year and they get off to a good start, people tend to believe they will play that way for an entire season. You know what you get with Ramirez, a great hitter. And Manny's defense does not hurt them as much as his offense helps them. It is hard to replace players that drive in runs the way Manny does.
Ken Tremendous: Joe's not entirely wrong here. I have resisted drinking the Ellsbury Kool-Aid -- although it looks effing delicious -- due to his less-sugary minor league numbers and the fact that historically there is zero correlation between a player's first 40 MLB at bats and his career statistics. (See Pedroia, Dustin.) However. It should be noted that Manny is currently having his worst offensive year since 1994; that he is on the wrong side of 35; that he costs 20m a year; and that while his defense does not quite completely wipe out his offensive contributions, it sure takes the sheen off 'em.
I don't know what the point of all of this is, except that just saying "Manny's a great hitter" isn't quite good enough to pass muster anymore. On a side note, isn't it crazy how little anyone has talked about Barry Bonds since he hit 756? Does he even play baseball anymore?
Frederick (Jackson, Mississippi): Who is more clutch? Gary Sheffield or David Ortiz?
Joe Morgan: That is a difficult question because --
KT: -- I'll finish your thought here, Joe. It is difficult because "clutch hitting" is not an ability, per se, but a random correlation of very few data points whose importance is enhanced by the human inclination to remember the extraordinary and not the mundane. That's what you were about to say, right?
-- both have done a great job in tight situations, but Ortiz has proven to be the best big-game hitter in baseball. I think he has risen to the occasion more than anyone else. I would have to choose Ortiz at this point over anyone else in the game.
KT: Oh. Okay. Well, that's another way to go.
I say this a day after Ortiz hit a walk-off 2-run homer in the bottom of the ninth to beat the DRays (an .840 WPA, for those of you who love WPA): most evidence seems to suggest that there is no such thing as "clutch hitting ability." There is "clutch hitting". There is the abstract concept of "ability." But there is no "clutch hitting" skill you can learn, in the way that you learn how to hit for power, or control the strike zone, or throw a slider two inches off the black to induce a groundout. Sorry. Take it up with people who are smarter than I am.
Quick example: I was just now poking around the FoxSports site, and I found this in an old Ken Rosenthal column:
While center fielder Carlos Beltran is probably the Mets' best offensive player, the most important might be left fielder Moises Alou. "He's one of the very best clutch hitters in our game," one rival executive says. "He doesn't care about the situation or who is on the mound. If he gets his pitch, he'll beat you." Alou's career numbers with runners in scoring position: .307 BA, .391 OBP, .513 SLG.
One of the best "clutch hitters" in the game -- .307/.391/.513 with RISP! That's clutch. Except that career, overall, he is: .302/.369/.517. That's basically the same. In fact, it might be the case that he is simply a better walker with men on base. And his SLG is actually lower with RISP.
Enough of that. Let's get to some classic Joe comedy, courtesy of his last sentence:
But Sheffield is one of the best offensive players in the history of the game.
Again, he's not wrong, I guess. Gary is tied for 49th all-time in OPS+. I just like it when Joe gets all hot and bothered about Gary Sheffield.
George (Boston, MA): The White Sox are bringing back essentially the same team next year, and now they'll have the same manager too. Meanwhile they've pretty much mailed it in on this season over the past several months. If nothing changes, what's the chances that they'll play any different next year? Thanks.
Joe Morgan: That is a decision that Ken Williams hgad to make. It was amazing to me that their offesne went dormant to start the year, and then a lack of pitching followed. They are counting on Contreras to rebound, and for Dye, Thome, Konerko to turn it around. What I see them doing is bringing this team back because they have so much money invested in these players. I think they are going to see how the first half of next year's season plays out and then react accordingly to how the team plays.
KT: They're going to see how the team plays, and then react accordingly to how the team has played. This innovative strategy of baseball management is called: "Baseball Management." The White Sox invented it.
John (Chicago, IL): Joe, who do you think, in your opinion, is going to represent the AL in the World Series this year and why? I like Boston because they have the best run differential in baseball and their pitching top to bottom has been statistically the best all year. What do you think?
KT: Hey kids! New to our site and want to know why we think Joe Morgan should be fired? Check out this fun answer!
Joe Morgan: Well the run differential means nothing. It is like OPS, it mean nothing in the grander scheme of things. (...)
Run differential "means nothing." The number of runs a team scores, as compared to the number of runs it gives up, means nothing. Nothing at all. It has no bearing on how good a team is. How could it? After all, it is simply a measure of how many runs a team has scored and how many runs the team has given up. What could that possibly tell anyone about anything? I mean, let's look at the teams with the best run differentials in the AL.
Boston New York LA Angels Cleveland
The four worst teams in the league!
Look, run differential isn't perfect. Every year, teams have terrible run differentials and make the playoffs. The Padres and Twinkies had no business winning their divisions last year. The Snakes have no business winning this year, based on RD. But in general -- let's just all use common sense, here -- the number of runs a team scores and the number it allows should roughly correlate to how successful that team is. Just as, say, a statistic that combines a player's on-base percentage and his slugging percentage should correlate to how good a fucking hitter he is. Why is that controversial?
BTW: if you guys are super into math and want to read about Poisson distributions and revised exponents in the Pythagorean theorem application to ExWL, go here. (Warning: NSFW!!!!)
Francisco (Jalisco, Mexico): The A's have had a little success in the past, but wouldn't you say that this year proves that Billy Beane's approach simply doesn't work?
KT: Hmmm. Legit question or Joe-Baiter?
Joe Morgan: I do not think you can just take one year and prove it. But I have never thought anyone could reinvent the wheel as far as how the game is played. Once you get on the field, everything that has gone on for 100 years does not change; and that means outscoring your opponent and pitching well.
And since you are more likely to outscore your opponent if you don't do stupid stuff like bunt and hit-and-run and stuff... it seems like you and Billy Beane are on the same page, Joe!
I do not think this one year proves anything, but the As playoff failures over the years demonstrate that you cannot win it all under that approach.
A. What approach? B. Four division titles in seven years. C. The A's playoff failures do not demonstrate anything except that once you get to the playoffs, anything can happen. Anything. The Reds swept the A's in 1990 despite the A's being hugely favored. Billy Beane had nothing to do with that. Kirk Gibson hit a home run off Eck. Dan Gladden hit a grand slam. Ozzie Smith and Scott Podsednik won games with HR. The A's have a payroll of just under eleven thousand dollars every year, and given that, are far more competitive than they should be. Because of the way they put their team together. How can anyone dispute this?
This year just proves that they lost a lot of good players over the past few years and it has finally caught up to them. But I think they have been reevaluating their approach. At one point they only wanted to draft college players, but this past draft they have drafted some high school players, and I think that is a good approach.
KT: They didn't only want to draft college players. They looked at some motherhumping data and concluded that college pitchers tended to be better bets to succeed than high school pitchers, so they erred on the side of drafting college pitchers.
You didn't read the book. You hate the book. You think Billy Beane wrote the book. Shut up about the book unless you man-up and read it, you dummy.
Andrew (Hoboken, NJ): Hi Joe - Always a pleasure reading these chats. I was wondering what you thought about Robinson Cano's future development? He has shown he can put up some great power/rbi numbers for a second baseman.
Joe Morgan: He is one of the guys that since the first time I saw him play I knew he was a great player. I do not see him everyday, but for him to be a superstar he needs to keep a high level of concetration, and some people seem to think he does not always concetrate as much as he should.
KT: dak yelled at me for being too priggish in my assault on Mike Pagliarulo's grammar and syntax. But I have a for-reals question: does Joe think the word is "concetrate?"
Eric (NYC): It seems like there aren't any more "great" teams out there this year, just a lot of mediocrity. In your opinion, what was the last truly great team?
KT: Definitely a Joe-Baiter, I think. "There are no more great teams" is one of Joe's go-to nonsenses. Along with "Gary Sheffield is great," "They need to be consistent." "I am on the Hall of Fame Committee so I don't like to talk about who should and should not get into the Hall of Fame," and "Dave Concepcion should definitely be in the Hall of Fame."
Joe Morgan: It did not just start this year, it has been this way for a bit. A lot of good teams out there, but not many great teams. An great team has no weaknesses. All teams these days have weakensses, most of the time it is starting pitching. The last great teams I think were the Yankee teams that won all those titles. I think Boston, when they won the title were clsoe to beaing great. But I do not see any teams out there right now who I would call complete. The Yankees look great at times, but then they hit these big loosing streaks and that is not what great teams do. So I agree with you that there are not any great teams out there.
KT: Wonderful. A Gettysburg Address for a new generation. Bumbling, ramble-y, riddled with typos (sorry, dak), fact-less, nonsensical, exclusionary (didn't the 2002 Oakland A's win 103 games with some pretty good starting pitching?), halting, and bafflingly choppy. Well done, all-around.
Jerry (Red Bud, IL): Are the Cards officially out of it? Will this weekend's series with the Cubs only give them the ability to play spoiler?
Joe Morgan: I do not think anyone is out of it.
KT: Hear that, Astros?
And they are in a position where they have to sweep the Cubs, and Milwaukee has not been consistent, so if they can sweep the Cubs who knows what can happen.
The first "consistent" in the whole chat. He's improving.
The Cards have hot a rough spot but it is still not impossible. But going back to Yogi, you just never know.
All of Joe's answers could be pictorially represented by a picture of himself shrugging with the caption, "Who can tell?" Joe Morgan: Yesterday I was asked if A-Rod hits 62 home runs would he be considered, in my mind, the legitimate HR season record holder, because he would have done it without any suspicion of steroid use. My answer would be no. It is what it is, and those number that were put up by Bonds and McGwire are there. There has not been any proof about what these guys did, only speculation. So until there is proof I cannot take those numbers away from those guys.
KT: Grand jury testimony, delivered under oath, does not count as proof. Our judicial system has been upended.
Great chat today. I really enjoyed your questions. I am looking forward to next week, when maybe we can discuss this A-Rod question then.
KT: Why not discuss it now? You're already chatting now, why not--
I can't believe I didn't think of this, but Eric did:
A big part of Alou's higher OBP with RISP is intentional walks. Once you factor out those plate appearances, that .391 drops to .370 (against an adjusted career number of .361). However, Alou does have a much higher RBI rate with runners on base...
Also, Ron points out that I really meant "human" where I wrote "humanistic," so mea culpa, and thanks to Ron for holding me to the same standards to which I hold everyone else in the universe.
Alou's stats this year (sample size issues of course, since the man can no longer physically play a full season):
.328/.383/.533
His stats this year with RISP? .221/.300/.397
RISP 2 out? .100/.229/.100
And the ever popular "Close and Late" .243/.300/.351
Despite a .313 EqA, his WPA for 2007 is an astounding -0.92 thanks to a recurring theme of double play balls served up in pretty much any situation with multiple runners on base. So what has happened to his clutchness in the 260 at bats he's had this year?
