Showing posts with label Kansas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kansas. Show all posts

08 August 2022

A County Level Analysis of the Kansas Abortion Amendment Vote

In Kansas, the state supreme court had determined many years ago that the state constitution protected the same right to an abortion as Roe v. Wade. At this summer's primary election in Kansas, in advance of midterm elections, an amendment to the state constitution was proposed that would have eliminated that state constitutional right, which was soundly defeated. 

An analysis of the results on a county by county basis shows a strong correlation between the amount of Trump support in 2020 and support for the measure to amend the Kansas state constitution to eliminate abortion rights, but a large proportion of Trump supporters didn't support this constitutional amendment.

counties that went 80% for Trump in 2020 voted just now (on average) roughly 40% against the amendment.

counties that went 60% for Trump in 2020 voted just now (on average) roughly 55%-60% against the amendment.

a null set but reading off the fitted line*: counties that went 40% for Trump in 2020 voted just now (on average) roughly 70% against the amendment.

From this post and the comments to it.

In a very simple model, 100% of voters who didn't support Trump and 25% of Trump supporters voted against the amendment, with some minor county to county variation.

There is also quite a bit of scatter in the more pro-Trump counties. At the high end, in this simple model, almost 40% of pro-Trump voters opposed the amendment (i.e. were pro-choice) and at the low end only about 20% of pro-Trump voters were pro-choice. 

This suggests that the Republican coalitions in Kansas vary quite a bit from county to county, resulting in different levels of constitutional amendment support based upon the kinds of Republicans in the Republican coalition in each county. In contrast, there is little scatter in pro-Biden counties since Democrats are far more united on this issue in Kansas. 

Of course, the scatter could also be due to Biden voters in strongly pro-Trump counties having different degrees of conservative leanings in these overall very conservative areas (perhaps tracking Catholic v. Protestant proportions in different counties, or the presence or absence of college towns or racial/ethnic minorities in those counties). I don't know the county level demographics of Kansas well enough to determine the likely sources of scatter just from eyeballing the chart and looking at county names. I'd have to do considerable additional research to get a good handle on that question.

Part of the reason for Republican strength from the abortion issue is that a fair share of single issue voters (particularly Roman Catholics, I suspect), vote for Republicans because they are anti-abortion, even though they overall would support Democratic candidates based upon the sum of all other issues.

In contrast, pro-choice Republicans are rarely single issue voters, even though they make up a significant minority of Republicans which helps to resolve the paradox that abortion is a closely divided issue among elected officials nationally, despite clear majorities that don't favor a hard core anti-abortion position on that issue in isolation.

The case of single issue anti-abortion voters also opposing hormonal birth control and IUDs despite the fact that neither hormonal birth control and IUDs are extremely uncontroversial among members of the general public has a similar source.

I particularly like some terminology in a New York Times op-ed about the Kansas vote (although with little data in the op-ed to back it up):

millions of Americans who voted for Donald Trump favor a right to a first-trimester abortion — some of them old-fashioned country-club Republicans, others secular working-class voters or anti-woke “Barstool conservatives” who dislike elite progressivism but find religious conservatism alienating as well.

27 April 2017

Quote Of The Day

It is hard to think of a more obvious recent public-policy failure than the tax cuts that Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback championed in 2012. The state has been mired in a perpetual budget crisis ever since the package passed, forcing its residents to swallow painful spending cuts in essential areas like education. Kansas' credit rating has been downgraded, as well. The financial wreckage has been so severe that Brownback's fellow Republicans are now staging a rebellion; in February, the GOP–run legislature voted to undo the cuts, and came close to overruling the governor's veto.

Somehow, the sharpest minds in the Trump administration have gazed upon the smoldering ashes of this misbegotten experiment and decided that they should imitate it.
- From Jordan Weissmann at Slate.com

21 June 2016

Higher Taxes Don't Kill Economic Growth

It is well known that the U.S. economy and the federal government's fiscal health has been better under Democratic Presidents than under Republican ones.  At least at the extremes of Colorado and California vis-a-vis Wisconsin and Kansas, this is true of Democratic v. Republican Governors of states as well in recent history.
In 2012, voters in California approved a measure to raise taxes on millionaires, bringing their top state income tax rate to 13.3 percent, the highest in the nation. Conservative economists predicted calamity, or at least a big slowdown in growth. Also that year, the governor of Kansas signed a series of changes to the state's tax code, including reducing income and sales tax rates. Conservative economists predicted a boom. 
Neither of those predictions came true. Not right away -- California grew just fine in the year the tax hikes took effect -- and especially not in the medium term, as new economic data showed this week.

Now, correlation does not, as they say, equal causation, and two examples are but a small sample. But the divergent experiences of California and Kansas run counter to a popular view, particularly among conservative economists, that tax cuts tend to supercharge growth and tax increases chill it.

California's economy grew by 4.1 percent in 2015, according to new numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, tying it with Oregon for the fastest state growth of the year. That was up from 3.1 percent growth for the Golden State in 2014, which was near the top of the national pack.

The Kansas economy, on the other hand, grew 0.2 percent in 2015. That's down from 1.2 percent in 2014, and below neighboring states such as Nebraska (2.1 percent) and Missouri (1.2 percent). Kansas ended the year with two consecutive quarters of negative growth -- a shrinking economy. By a common definition of the term, the state entered 2016 in recession. ...

Few, if any, economists would say today that the recovery has been sufficient for all Californians. But almost no one can say that raising taxes on the rich killed that recovery. Or that given a choice of the two states' economic performances over the past few years, you'd rather be Kansas.
From here.

UPDATE June 24, 2016:

Additional GPD data from Kansas and other states nearby confirm the story about the economic health of Kansas relative to its peers.  GDP in Kansas flatlined in the state relative to the U.S., to neighboring states and to the GDP growth trend lines it had been on, following the policy changes it made under Governor Brownback.  Colorado, meanwhile, under the stewardship of Democratic Governor Hickenlooper, has thrived.

Wisconsin's economy has similarly faltered following its implementation of a slate of conservative economic policies under Governor Walker.

14 June 2015

Kansas Explained

Why is Kansas so conservative, to the point of dysfunction?

One of the key factors is that it has two major cities that make up half the state, which are highly atypical.  The poor urban core of Kansas City is in Missouri, and Wichita, due to a lack of natural boundaries, has a very low population density.  Also, neither of its major cities is home to a major university.

Another key point is that Kansas is seeing the rural areas and small towns that make up 98% of its land decline in population to the point where economies of scale for basic services are breaking down, except in areas experiencing large amounts of immigration for farm related industries that remain poor.

23 June 2008

Colorado Public Defender Rules Unconstitutional?

Colorado Public Defender Rules May Be Unconstitutional

In a not terribly surprising decision, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the right to counsel attaches when you are incarcerated and arraigned before a magistrate, even if the prosecutor's office has not yet become involved in the case because the proceedings were begun by a police officers authorized to do so in local practice. Rothgery v. Gillespie County, Texas.

The only surprising part of the decision is that the District Court and 5th Circuit Court of Appeals had ruled to the contrary (apparently the 5th Circuit had ruled the wrong way in a previous case).

According to the majority in Rothgery, Colorado is one of seven U.S. states that do not "take the first step toward appointing counsel 'before, at, or just after initial appearance.'" It went on to state with regard to these states (citations omitted):

[E]ven in the remaining 7 States (Alabama, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia) the practice is not free of ambiguity.


One brief cited by the majority suggested "that the practice in Alabama, Kansas, South Carolina, and Virginia might actually be consistent with the majority approach." Thus, Colorado and Oklahoma practice, in addition to the Texas practice at issue in the case, might have to be reformed as a result of this decision.

I don't practice criminal law in Colorado on a regular basis and thus, I am not familiar with this detail of Colorado practice. I invite comment from those better informed than I about the impact of the Rothgery decision in Colorado.

Juries For Juveniles In Kansas

Another interesting ruling came out of the Kansas Supreme Court Friday, which held, in the case of In re L.M., that juveniles were entitled to jury trials in juvenile court deliquency proceedings because the juvenile justice system was no longer sufficiently different from the adult process (as a result of tough on crime reforms) to justify denying juveniles a right to a trial by jury.

To my knowledge, Kansas is now the only state in the United States where juveniles have a right to a jury trial in juvenile court. The ruling, arising under the Kansas Constitution, and hence, not reviewable by the U.S. Supreme Court or subject to amendment by the Kansas legislature without a constitutional amendment, was not retroactive in effect.

The decision would provide cover to other state supreme courts similarly disillusioned with the state of juvenile justice, and will almost certainly spawn copy cat litigation in other states, particularly if the right to a jury trial proves unproblematic.

I recall reading the U.S. Supreme Court decision that eliminated the right to a jury trial in juvenile court delinquency cases in law school and found it unpersausive. The Kansas Court summarized that U.S. Supreme Court decision at the outset of its analysis:

[I]n McKeiver v. Pennsylvania, 403 U.S. 528, 29 L. Ed. 2d 647, 91 S. Ct. 1976 (1971), . . . a plurality of the Court held that juveniles are not entitled to a jury trial under the Sixth and Fourteenth Amendments to the Constitution.

In McKeiver, the United States Supreme Court addressed the constitutionality of the Pennsylvania and North Carolina juvenile justice systems, neither of which afforded juveniles the right to a jury trial. Although the resulting plurality opinion held that juveniles are not entitled to a jury trial under the federal constitution, the justices could not agree on the reasoning to support that holding. Four of the justices supported their decision with the following 13 policy considerations and assumptions or speculations about the impact of jury trials on juvenile proceedings:

(1) The Court had previously refrained from flatly holding that all constitutional rights assured to adults accused of crimes were imposed on state juvenile proceedings;

(2) Imposing jury trials might remake juvenile proceedings into fully adversarial proceedings, thereby putting an end to the intimate, informal proceedings envisioned by the creators of the juvenile justice system;

(3) A governmental task force that had studied the juvenile justice system did not make any recommendation regarding jury trials as a means of improving the deficiencies and disappointments in the juvenile system;

(4) As noted in dictum in Duncan v. Louisiana, 391 U.S. 145, 149 n.14, 20 L. Ed. 2d 491, 88 S. Ct. 1444 (1968), a jury trial is not a necessary part of every fair and equitable criminal process;

(5) The imposition of a jury trial would not strengthen the factfinding process and would eliminate the juvenile system's ability to function in a unique way, placing the juvenile "squarely in the routine of the criminal process;"

(6) The Court was reluctant to preclude the States from experimenting with different ways of handling juvenile problems;

(7) The Court refrained from concluding that the abuses in the system were of constitutional dimension;

(8) Nothing prevented the juvenile court judge from using an advisory jury;

(9) Twenty-eight States and the District of Columbia denied juveniles the right to a jury trial, while 10 States provided a jury trial under certain circumstances;

(10) A great majority of States had previously concluded that In re Gault, 387 U.S. 1, 18 L. Ed. 2d 527, 87 S. Ct. 1428 (1967), and Duncan did not require jury trials for juveniles;

(11) The Uniform Juvenile Court Act stopped short of proposing a jury trial;

(12) Injecting a jury trial into juvenile proceedings would bring "the traditional delay, the formality, and the clamor of the adversary system and, possibly, the public trial"; and

(13) The possibility of prejudgment by a judge who has had prior access to the juvenile, the juvenile's record, and the juvenile's social file would ignore every aspect of fairness, concern, sympathy, and paternal attention contemplated by the juvenile system. McKeiver, 403 U.S. at 545-50.

Two concurring justices relied on other reasoning. Justice Harlan concurred with the result because he did not believe that the Sixth Amendment or the right to due process required the states to provide criminal jury trials for anyone. McKeiver, 403 U.S. at 557 (Harlan, J., concurring). Justice Brennan also concurred with the result but relied on the concept of fundamental fairness. According to Justice Brennan, the State did not have to provide jury trials for juveniles as long as some other aspect of the process adequately protected the juvenile's Sixth Amendment interests by preventing governmental oppression. Justice Brennan concluded that the Pennsylvania system was adequate because it allowed public trials, thereby "exposing improper judicial behavior to public view, and obtaining, if necessary, executive redress through the medium of public indignation." 403 U.S. at 555 (Brennan, J., concurring). Under this rubric, Justice Brennan concluded that the North Carolina system was not constitutionally sound because it did not allow public trials. 403 U.S. at 556-57 (Brennan, J., concurring).

Justices Douglas, Black, and Marshall dissented, stating that "neither the Fourteenth Amendment nor the Bill of Rights is for adults alone." McKeiver, 403 U.S. at 559 (quoting In re Gault, 387 U.S. at 13). Noting that the "Sixth Amendment . . . speaks of denial of rights to 'any person,' not denial of rights to 'any adult person,'" the dissenting justices discerned no difference between allowing juveniles the right to a jury trial and the previously granted rights to notice, counsel, protection against self-incrimination, confrontation, and conviction under the beyond a reasonable doubt standard. 403 U.S. at 560-61 (Douglas, J., dissenting). The dissenting justices looked behind the facade of the delinquency charge to the underlying criminal statute and concluded that juveniles who are prosecuted for a criminal act involving a potential loss of liberty are entitled to the same protections as adults accused of a crime. 403 U.S. at 560-61.


When Wrong Is Right

The Colorado Supreme Court and U.S. Supreme Court, in unrelated decisions, held today that sometimes a clearly incorrect legal ruling must be upheld when no timely objection is made to it.

In the Colorado case, Kancillia v. Pearson, a debtor was entitled to exempt disability payments from creditors claims in an amount greater than the amount authorized by statute, because a timely objection to the claim of exemption was not made by the creditor. The Colorado case was unanimous.

In the U.S. Supreme Court case, Greenlaw v. United States, a 15 year sentence was upheld, despite the fact that the defendant was convicted of a crime with a 25 year minimum sentence, because federal prosecutors didn't appeal that sentence, even though they had objected at trial to it. The U.S. Supreme Court ruling was a 6-3 decision not made on the usual partisan lines.

The idea that a clearly legally incorrect decision can be legally binding and unreviewable is sometimes hard for non-lawyers to understand, even though these situations come up fairly often, although usually less blatantly.

Judges and lawyers often make mistakes, and if there weren't limits upon reopening those mistakes, the judiciary's authority would be undermined by the uncertainty involved in judicial rulings.