Showing posts with label XVZ. Show all posts
Showing posts with label XVZ. Show all posts

Thursday, April 14, 2022

UVXY Dominates VIX ETPs By Dollar-Weighted Volume

At various times in the 13-year history of VIX ETPs there have been as many of 30+ different versions of these VIX-based products on the market.  Initially, it was the +1x VXX that dominated the space, later supplanted by the +2x TVIX and then the -1x XIV as the top dog.  All three of these products have run into various issues (see VIX ETPs – What Can Go Wrong?), with XIV dead, TVIX relegated to irrelevance and trading by appointment on the pink sheets as TVIXF and VXX currently wounded by regulatory issues (Barclays Suspends Creation Units for VXX).

In the wake of all this carnage, which products are still viable?  A month ago I would probably have argued that VXX was the most important product in the space, but with VXX’s creation unit troubles, the +1.5x UVXY ETF from ProShares is the clear market share leader, with 63.3% of the dollar-weighted volume in the VIX ETP product space.  The ProShares -0.5x SVXY ETF has the second highest dollar-weighted volume in the space at 19.4% and in third place at 9.8% is the +1.0x VIXY ETF.  VXX from Barclays has fallen to fourth place at 5.8%.  For now, the VIX ETP space is dominated by the ProShares product suite.  The two new kids on the block, the +2.0x UVIX and the -1.0x SVIX from Volatility Shares are gaining some traction, but still have only 0.7% dollar-weighted volume share.

In the graphic below I show the dollar-weighted volume as of yesterday’s data.  Note that the top six products all have a weighted-average maturity of one month while the two laggards, VIXM and VXZ, both have a weighted-average maturity of five months.


 [source(s):  Yahoo, VIX and More]


Further Reading:
UVIX and SVIX Join the VIX-Based ETP Landscape
VIX ETPs – What Can Go Wrong?
Successful Launch for SVIX and UVIX
VIX ETPs Flash Some Green in 2016
Every Single VIX ETP (Long and Short) Lost Money in 2015
Performance of VIX ETPs During the Recent Debt Ceiling Crisis
Expanded Performance of Volatility-Hedged and Related ETPs
Performance of Volatility-Hedged ETPs
Performance of VIX ETP Hedges in Current Selloff
Slicing and Dicing all 31 Flavors of the VIX ETPs
Charting the Assets of the Volatility-Based ETPs

For those who may be interested, you can always follow me on Twitter at @VIXandMore

Disclosure(s): net short VXX, UVIX and UVXY, net long SVIX at time of writing

 

Saturday, September 14, 2013

Revisiting the VIX:VXV Ratio

Two of my favorite bloggers, who hail from very different corners of the investment landscape, both happened to mention me in reference to the VIX:VXV ratio in the past few days.

On Wednesday, in A Buy Signal from the Option Market, Cam Hui of Humble Student of the Markets, noted that the VIX:VXV ratio had fallen below 0.92, where “it has provided reasonably good long entry points in the past.” Cam linked back to my first post on the VIX:VXV ratio from December 2007, which, I am fairly certain is the first time anyone ever mentioned the ratio and suggested that it might have some value as a market timing signal.

Today Russell Rhoads of the CBOE, whose Trading VIX Derivatives: Trading and Hedging Strategies Using VIX Futures, Options, and Exchange Traded Notes is undoubtedly the best book ever published on the VIX, also mentioned the VXV:VIX ratio in one of his weekly volatility columns, This Week in VIX Options and ETPs – 9/13/2013. Russell’s version of this ratio, VXV:VIX, flips the numerator and denominator, so his comments are the inverse of much of my analysis. “Note on the chart there are a few instances where the ratio of VXV to VIX falls below 1.0. That seems to coincide with a subsequent near term bottom in the stock market as well.”

I have literally dozens of posts on the VIX:VXV ratio going back to 2007 and while I have hand-picked a selection of posts below that focus on this subject, I could easily fill a book with data, interpretative overlays and trading strategy ideas based on VXV (essentially a 93-day version of the VIX) and its relation to VIX and other measures of volatility.

One of the more interesting issues related to the VIX:VXV ratio is how that ratio has moved up and down over the course of various volatility regimes. In the first two years of the ratio (2007 and 2008), the average (mean) ratio was 0.97 and 1.02; during the past two years, however, the average (mean) ratio has fallen all the way down to 0.87 and 0.90.

For about 1 ½ years following the launch of VXV, using absolute levels in the VIX:VXV ratio as bullish and bearish signals worked almost perfectly. One only has to look at VIX:VXV Ratio Moving Toward Bearish Zone to understand why it quickly gained so many fans. When the 2008 financial crisis hit and in the aftermath of the crisis, the VIX:VXV ratio began to look like just another broken indicator. Since that time, the VIX:VXV ratio has continued to be a very useful indicator, yet its value has been greater when studied in relative terms than absolute terms. Old rules, such as increasing long equity exposure when VIX:VXV fell to 0.92 or 0.90, proved to be of little help when the average of the ratio hovered around 0.90 instead of 1.00.

During the last two years, the VIX futures term structure has departed significantly from historical norms, as I have demonstrated in the likes of The 2012 VIX Futures Term Structure as an Outlier. Frankly, the 2013 version of the VIX futures term structure looks a lot more like the outlier 2012 data set than any previous year.

There are many ways to think about a ratio in relative terms. Using percentiles, standard deviations and short-term vs. long-term moving averages are just some of the ways that one can rethink the VIX:VXV ratio in relative terms. In the chart below, for instance, I have calculated the two-week moving average of the VIX:VXV ratio relative to the moving average for the past quarter. This keeps the data standardized around a mean of 1.00 and allows for a way to evaluate the ratio on a relative basis, regardless of whether the current volatility regime has depressed or lifted the ratio data for the full lookback period.  Note how extremes in this ratio of ratios has been an effective market timing signal over the course of the past eleven years.

[source(s): CBOE, VIX and More]

Given the scope of the issues that are related to VXV and the VIX:VXV ratio, I pledge to devote a good deal more space to these issues going forward, including the twists and turns in the VIX futures term structure, the use of the VIX:VXV ratio in determining the dynamic allocations for XVZ, etc.

For those who are doing some of their own research into these and some tangential subjects, the links below are an excellent point of departure.

Related posts:

[source(s): CBOE, Yahoo, VIX and More]

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Expanded Performance of Volatility-Hedged and Related ETPs

When I recently assembled Top Posts of 2013 (Through First Half of Year), several themes jumped off the page. The top four posts of the year summarize what many investors have been worrying about this year:

  1. The Low Volatility Story in Pictures
  2. Four Years of SPX Pullbacks in One Plot
  3. VIX ETP Performance in 2012
  4. All-Time VIX Spike #11 (and a treasure trove of VIX spike data)

The issues are related to pullbacks in stocks, the VIX spikes associated with them, how to minimize portfolio volatility when these types of events happen and what the implications are for various VIX exchange-traded products.

With that backdrop and a stock market that has been looking fatigued while it has meandered sideways for the past month, quite a few investors are thinking about how to hedge a portfolio that has a long-equity bias. In the graphic below, I capture the recent performance of a number of ETPs which may be suitable for hedging that type of portfolio.

[source(s): StockCharts.com]

Interestingly, the performance of these securities appears to fall into three distinct groups.

The top group has two ETPs:

  • SPY (black line), included largely for reference purposes
  • Direxion S&P 500 RC Volatility Response Shares (VSPY), which employs a market timing mechanism that dynamically allocates between stocks and bonds according to measures of market volatility (blue-green line)

The second group contains the core of the VIX-based dynamic hedging products:

  • First Trust CBOE S&P 500 Tail Hedge Fund ETF (VIXH), which is essentially a portfolio consisting of 99-100% of SPY, augmented by a dynamic allocation of 0-1% of VIX options (light green line)
  • Barclays ETN+ S&P VEQTOR ETN (VQT), which has a dynamic allocation of VIX futures that fluctuates based on realized volatility and the trend in implied volatility (red line)
  • PowerShares S&P 500Downside Hedged Portfolio (PHDG), like VQT, has a dynamic allocation of VIX futures and is based on the S&P 500 Dynamic VEQTOR Index (dark purple line)

The bottom group includes two performers:

  • UBS ETRACS Daily Long-Short VIX ETN (XVIX), which is equivalent to a fixed allocation of a 100% long position in VXZ, offset by a 50% short position in VXX. I have included XVIX (aqua blue line) here largely to show how closely the performance corresponds to that of XVZ
  • iPath S&P 500 Dynamic VIX ETN (XVZ), utilizes the slope of the VIX:VXV ratio (SPX 30-day implied volatility to SPX 93-day implied volatility) to determine the dynamic allocation to short-term and medium-term VIX futures. In this case, the allocation to short-term VIX futures (think VXX) can be either long or short, while the allocation to medium-term VIX futures will always be long, though it is variable (fuchsia line)

Keep in mind that the most aggressive hedges are almost always the ones that underperform the most in bullish periods. If you want a very different look at how some of these products perform when stocks decline sharply, check out Performance of VIX ETP Hedges in Current Selloff.

The links below provide some background information on some of these products as well as performance data and should serve as excellent starting points for more comprehensive research.

Related posts:

Disclosure(s): long VQT and short VXX at time of writing

Thursday, November 8, 2012

Performance of VIX ETPs During Current Pullback

Of all the issues discussed in this space, undoubtedly the one that captures the imagination of most readers is the subject of VIX-based exchange-traded products. I get more questions about the construction of these products, how they respond to the VIX futures term structure, what factors influence performance, etc.

For these reasons I thought it might be instructive to update my VIX ETP landscape chart and include performance data from the September 14th market closing high of SPX 1465 to today’s close of SPX 1377. During that period, the SPX declined 6.0% on a close-to-close basis, while the VIX jumped 27.4% during the same period.

So how did the VIX ETPs fare while the market was selling off?

In examining the graphic below, the first thing you probably notice is that only 5 of the 19 VIX ETPs were able to manage gains during the selloff. In fact the average (mean) VIX ETP performance was a disappointing -4.9%, while the median return was -6.7%. Even more interesting, the inverse volatility products actually outperformed their long volatility counterparts and had the top performer of all, the VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Medium-Term ETN (ZIV).

In addition to the static allocation long and short volatility ETPs, there are also three products that use rules-based formulas to dynamically allocate the amount and type of long volatility exposure: VQT, XVZ and VIXH. None of these three products was able to produce a profit during the selloff and the top performer among the group, VQT, managed a loss of 3.4%.

I previously superimposed performance data on this same VIX landscape graphic back on April 3rd in VIX ETP Returns for Q1 2012, following a 12.0% gain in the SPX during that quarter and a 33.8% drop in the VIX. Note that only two VIX ETPs managed to post gains during the bullish first quarter and the selloff of the past eight weeks: ZIV and IVOP. If anyone wonders why I never bother to mention IVOP, first off it has only traded on three days during the past month and second, it has a participation of only 0.13, which means essentially that the portfolio moves as if only 13% of the assets were invested in the underlying index and the balance remained in cash.  As for ZIV, I have been all over this one, including a feature post, ZIV Undeservedly Neglected, back in January.

Now that VIXH has been added to the mix of VIX ETPs, I will endeavor to provide performance updates on some or all of the VIX ETP product space on a more frequent basis going forward.

In the meantime, for those who are in search of reasons why some of the VIX ETPs outperform their peers in various market regimes, the links below are an excellent place to begin your research.

Related posts:

[source(s): Yahoo]

Disclosure(s): long ZIV and XVZ at time of writing

Friday, June 15, 2012

Performance of Volatility-Hedged ETPs

An emerging area of interest in the markets in general and in this space in particular is the subject of how to blend volatility exposure – both long and short – into a portfolio.

Based upon feedback I have received, three recent articles that have touched upon this subject from different angles have all resonated with readers:

Clearly the role of volatility in a portfolio is a subject that warrants further analysis and discussion.

It is worth noting that issuers of exchange-traded products have taken several approaches to addressing volatility. The most obvious was the launch of VIX-based ETPs, such as the popular VXX (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN,) which is a long basket of short-term VIX futures.

Subsequent products have tackled the subject of volatility in a variety of different ways, including:

  1. Utilize low beta stocks to minimize portfolio volatility (SPLV)
  2. Employ a market timing mechanism that dynamically allocates between stocks and bonds according to measures of market volatility (VSPY)
  3. Employ a market timing mechanism that dynamically allocates between stocks and VIX futures according to measures of market volatility (VQT)
  4. Employ a market timing mechanism that dynamically allocates between long and short volatility positions (XVZ)

With the S&P 500 index down about 6.3% through yesterday’s close from its April 2nd high, it is reasonable to ask how these approaches have been performing during this bearish phase. The chart below shows the performance of SPY in red. Two of the approaches employed have had a performance trajectory that is almost indistinguishable from that of SPY: VQT (green line); and VSPY (dark blue line), which is thinly traded.

The two standouts during the past 2 ½ months are SPLV (light blue line) and XVZ (purple line). You can see from the graphic that SPLV has done exactly was it is supposed to do: minimize volatility. For the better part of the period in question, SPLV has been largely unchanged. Lately it has risen largely due to its substantial exposure to utilities and consumer staples. The other standout is XVZ, which essentially uses the slope of VIX futures term structure to determine how it allocates between long and short volatility positions. With the VIX futures in contango (front months less expensive than more distant months) since last November, this product has been able to capitalize on negative roll yield, while also providing protection against a spike in the VIX.

While this data should be of interest to traders who are looking for volatility-based hedges or even speculative applications going forward, today is definitely a case where past performance should not serve as a guideline for what to expect in the next week or two.

For those who are looking for more powerful VIX hedges, long positions in VIX calls and VXX calls (including the weeklys) will provide the most robust long volatility hedges. For those who are looking to minimize portfolio volatility going forward, the four approaches outlined above (as well as the links below) should warrant further investigation.

Related posts:

[source(s): StockCharts.com]

Disclosure(s): long XVZ and short VXX at time of writing

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Performance of VIX ETP Hedges in Current Selloff

It was only a week ago that I discussed the performance of 31 VIX and volatility-based exchange-traded products in VIX ETP Returns for Q1 2012 and barely a month ago that I examined in some detail the workings of two VIX ETPs, VQT and XVZ, in Dynamic VIX ETPs as Long-Term Hedges. When stocks fall and volatility rises, however, which VIX ETP hedges work the best?

The answer is not so simple, unless you know when volatility will begin to spike, how far it will go and how long it will take to get there. Even then, it would still be helpful to know what happens to the VIX futures term structure along the way.  Also, there are liquidity constraints that will probably limit the choices for most investors to a half dozen or fewer alternatives.

That being said, the current selloff can be used to highlight some important heuristics and alternative approaches. The first graphic below, for instance, illustrates the performance since the April 2 close of five representative and relatively liquid VIX ETPs (TVIZ was excluded on the grounds of liquidity; its performance during the period was similar to that of VXX) that can be used as hedges. For the most part, the performance trend is the opposite of what was observed during the first quarter.

The three fixed allocation VIX ETPs have been excellent performers during the last five trading days. With +2x leverage and a short-term (weighted average of one month) maturity, TVIX (red line) was the standout in the group. The second best performer during the selloff was VXX (blue line), a +1x short-term product.  The +1x mid-term (weighted average of one month) maturity VXZ (green line) ETP has also been a strong performer, certainly worthy of a bronze medal. All three hedges have gained more than 10% during the last five trading days, while the S&P 500 index (black line) has fallen 4.3%. In sharp contrast to their fixed allocation brethren, the two dynamic allocation VIX ETPs have both hovered around the unchanged line during the selloff, with XVZ (fuchsia line) eking out a small gain after a small bounce today, while VQT (aqua blue line) has posted a loss during the same period.

Obviously, anyone who bought TVIX (or VXX or VXZ) on April 2 is sitting on a nice profit, but the second graphic, which tracks performance of the same ETPs since the beginning of the year, lays out the big picture conundrum succinctly. In short, the most responsive hedges (TVIX, VXX, etc.) are those which have a fixed allocation and are most susceptible to losses due to contango and negative roll yield while one is waiting for a hoped-for VIX spike to materialize. The dynamic allocation VIX ETPs, on the other hand, are tweaked to minimize losses due to contango and negative roll yield and thus can be left in place for extended periods, but there is enough lag time built into their dynamic allocation rules so that they offer little protection from sudden and short-lived VIX spikes, while doing a better job of protecting portfolios during extended periods of volatility, such as the peak of European sovereign debt crisis during August-September 2011.

So…if you know when the fireworks are going to start, TVIX and VXX are excellent choices as volatility hedges for long equity portfolios. If the timetable is uncertain (which is often the case) and the goal is to protect against a period of extended high volatility, then VXZ and VQT are likely to be more compelling alternatives.

Related posts:

[source(s): StockCharts.com]

Disclosure(s): long XVZ; short VIX, VXX and TVIX at time of writing

Friday, March 2, 2012

Dynamic VIX ETPs as Long-Term Hedges

With the huge contango in the VIX futures term structure at the moment, anyone who is buying VIX options or the VIX exchange-traded products (ETPs) right now is having to pay for that contango in order to have the opportunity to capitalize on increasing volatility. With the contango-based negative roll yield currently running at 15% per month, this means the cost of a volatility hedge for long equity positions is extremely expensive in the current market.

Fortunately, investors do have some alternatives that have a different type of appeal.

There are two VIX ETPs, VQT and XVZ, which attempt to minimize the impact of the negative roll yield by using a market timing mechanism that dynamically adjusts the long volatility exposure. In more volatile markets, the exposure increases; in less volatile markets, the long volatility exposure is either very low (in the case of VQT) or can even flip to a small net short position (in the case of XVZ).

VQT is more of a portfolio replacement strategy, while XVZ is more of a portfolio augmentation strategy. Specifically, VQT has long SPY exposure that ranges from 60% to 97.5% of its portfolio, with the balance (2.5% - 40%) allocated to a long position in the VIX short-term futures (think VXX). The links below will provide more details.

XVZ, on the other hand, does not hold any long equity component, only short-term (again, think VXX) and mid-term (think VXZ) VIX futures. The twist here is that while the mid-term VIX futures component can range from 50-100% of the portfolio, the short-term component can be as high as 50%, but as low as negative 30%. So…under certain circumstances (e.g., a very steep VIX futures term structure, like the one we are currently experiencing), the portfolio will consist of the equivalent of a 30% short position in VXX and a 70% long position in VXZ. On balance, that type of portfolio should be very close to volatility neutral and in some cases even have a slight short volatility bias.

Since XVZ was only launched on August 18, 2011 (VQT dates back to September 2010), I have chosen a graphic that shows the relative performance of the SPX (red line), VQT (blue line) and XVZ (green line) from the launch of XVZ to the present. Note that with its long exposure, VQT is better able to take advantage of a low volatility slow bull market. XVZ, on the other hand, is generally close to flat in a low volatility bull market, but should the VIX spike sharply higher, XVZ will likely do a better job of capitalizing on the volatility spike.

As investors ponder the fatigued bulls and inevitable pullback sometime in the near future, certainly VQT and XVZ warrant a more detailed investigation, along with some of the non-volatility ETPs that are meant to reduce risk and hedge against a downturn, such as VSPY, SPLV, and others.

Related posts:

[source(s): StockCharts.com]

Disclosure(s): long XVZ and short VXX at time of writing

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

An Updated Field Guide to VIX ETPs

With the sudden success of TVIX, it seems as if the entire VIX exchange-traded product (ETP) space has a large number of new converts. Growing from just two products at the end of 2009 (VXX and VXZ) to 12 by the end of 2010 and 31 by the end of 2011, VIX ETPs are a growth industry.

For those who trade or invest in the VIX ETP space, I thought the graphic below – a field guide of sorts – might be of assistance. The intent of the graphic is to differentiate between the various VIX and volatility-based ETPs primarily by mapping them according to target duration and leverage. The key at the bottom of the graphic highlights some additional distinctions, such as:

  • ETPs that hold some non-VIX securities in their portfolio are marked by a black triangle. These include VQT and CVOL, which hold long or short positions in SPX/SPY
  • ETPs that include both long and short VIX positions in their portfolio (VQT, XVZ and XVIX) are flagged with a red/green rectangle
  • ETPs with a dotted outline (VQT and XVZ) have a rule-based dynamic allocation of volatility components
  • the red ovals highlight those five VIX ETPs that are currently optionable
  • the large light red shaded area incorporates all the ETPs that use 2x leverage (there are no 3x VIX ETPs)
  • the large orange shaded area incorporates all the ETPs which have a target average weighted one month duration and thus are particularly susceptible to the influence of contango and negative roll yield in the VIX futures portion of their holdings

There are some other important distinctions that are difficult to work into the chart, but one I did incorporate was to flag VIX ETFs (from ProShares) in a black font, while all the ETNs are in a blue font.

For the sake of completeness, I also included a necrology of the two VIX ETPs that were closed last year. Interestingly, both were immediately succeeded with virtually identical products that trade under a similar ticker.

Going forward I fear that the next round of VIX ETPs may make it impossible to capture the same level of detail as I have done in this single page, but for now at least, this is my reference of choice for VIX ETPs.

Related posts:

Disclosure(s): long XVZ, short VXX and short TVIX at time of writing

DISCLAIMER: "VIX®" is a trademark of Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated is not affiliated with this website or this website's owner's or operators. CBOE assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness or any other aspect of any content posted on this website by its operator or any third party. All content on this site is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended as advice to buy or sell any securities. Stocks are difficult to trade; options are even harder. When it comes to VIX derivatives, don't fall into the trap of thinking that just because you can ride a horse, you can ride an alligator. Please do your own homework and accept full responsibility for any investment decisions you make. No content on this site can be used for commercial purposes without the prior written permission of the author. Copyright © 2007-2023 Bill Luby. All rights reserved.
 
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