TikTok: It's Like Reading Your Mind

TikTok is one of the fastest growing social-media networks in history. Developers post 15-second videos on any subject, and TikTok deduces the types of videos that the users prefer and steers them onto the next. TikTok has close to one billion users and is enormously influential among young people.

The Wall Street Journal determined how TikTok's algorithm works by creating artificial users ("bots") that did not reveal their interests, e.g., yoga, sadness, forestry, to TikTok. To be clear, TikTok did not ask for user data, spy on text messages, etc. The algorithm found out users' preference from just one thing:

How long you linger over a piece of content. Every second you hesitate or rewatch, the app is tracking you...

Tiktok fully learned many of our accounts' interests in less than two hours. Some it figured out in less than 40 minutes.

Your humble blogger enjoyed TikTok last year until President Trump accused the company of spying for China and tried to force its sale to a U.S. entity. I immediately deleted the app because the benefit of laughing at 15-second vignettes wasn't worth the possible risks. The sale fell through, no proof of perfidy emerged, and President Biden reversed the Trump restrictions. TikTok hasn't been cleared, however, and is still under investigation by various U.S. government agencies.

Now I only watch TikTok videos about once a month when someone sends a link. The vast majority of videos that I have seen are mildly enjoyable and some are astonishingly creative. However, they are not necessary to life and happiness.

Below is one of the most popular (2 billion views...really?) TikTok videos:

@zachking

They rejected my application to Hogwarts but I still found a way to be a wizard. 🧹##illusion ##magic ##harrypotter

♬ Zach Kings Magic Broomstick - Zach King

Comforted by Limitation

Nobel Prize-winning physicist Frank Wilczek reflects upon the "deeply strange" nature of carbon- or radioactive-dating. [bold added]

What makes radioactive nuclei such ideal clocks is that they are reliably unreliable. An isotope’s half-life can be determined accurately by observing lots of decays. For instance, radioactive carbon, which is used to date organic material, has a half-life of about 5,700 years. But it’s impossible to predict when any individual nucleus will decay. In fact, an individual nucleus is a kind of anti-clock: It does not register the passage of time at all. There is no observable difference between old and young nuclei.They remain ideally young, we might say, until they suddenly and explosively die. By monitoring decays within this homogeneous population we measure time statistically, with confidence.

(Graphic from toppr)

In other words scientists can very accurately predict the behavior of a large group of atoms but cannot tell how a single atom will behave.

Of course, it's very easy to analogize this principle of quantum physics to the science of human behavior.

The study of the behavior of groups and whole societies has made significant advancements, but the Holy Grail seems to be predicting how an individual will behave; an immense amount of data has already been stored about each human being who owns a cellphone.

From his eye movements, demographic characteristics, and social networks it would be logical that an algorithm could predict what a person was going to buy, who he would vote for, and whom he will marry.

But hooray for free will, which the ancients said limits the omniscience of a Deity or which moderns might say will constrain the emerging singularity.

If scientists are having difficulty predicting the decay of a single carbon atom, then they are sure to have trouble with a human being. Despite my admiration for science and progress, I am comforted by that idea.

Out, Damned Spots

I'll bet that this is a danger that the models didn't predict:

A Grim Reality of Reopening: More Mold

(Wired photo)

The pandemic has forced all sorts of buildings to sit empty for long periods of time. As people venture back into their homes, schools, and offices again, they may also find an unwelcome surprise inside. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warns people who are reopening buildings to watch out for potential hazards like mold and Legionella pneumophila, the bacterium that causes Legionnaires’ disease...

Vacation homes and foreclosed properties often harbor mold. New construction techniques may be somewhat to blame: Because homes are now tightly sealed for energy conservation, they may be poorly ventilated and susceptible to issues like mold. Every year, some unlucky school districts return in August or September to find classrooms full of the stuff.

Homeowners may try to save thousands of dollars by doing the clean-up, albeit imperfectly, themselves. Business property owners don't have that leeway.

Because of liability and public-safety regulations, businesses must use licensed contractors. I know one rental-property owner who, when replacing the bathtub, found mold in one corner of the bathroom. Before-and-after air testing, removing the mold, tenting, drying, and recertification cost him $4,000 ten years ago.

If you're looking for a business to invest in, dear reader, try mold removal and restoration services. They should be booming this year.

Green for Show, Analytics for Dough

Being green: I re-use them at home.

Starbucks is often mocked for its responsiveness to the directional changes in progressive winds, but we need to give credit where it's due. We like the redesign of its cold drink lids, all to eliminate the plastic straws that comprise 0.03% of plastic waste.

[Digression: the straw-waste percentage is about the same as the percentage of carbon dioxide (.039%) in the atmosphere. One of the wonders of our time is the belief that the future of life on earth rests on eliminating the last speck of these "dangerous" substances. For perspective, getting rid of plastic straws would be like ordering a 200-pound person to lose 1/16th of a pound.]

(From imgflip)

Anyway, credit to Starbucks for finding a new use for sippy cups.

Mock them all you want, but Starbucks stock is on fire:

The world’s largest coffee chain posted adjusted earnings of 78 cents a share for its fiscal third quarter, a 26% increase compared with a year earlier. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected earnings of 72 cents a share, excluding certain items.

Starbucks’s sales of $6.8 billion were up 8%, also beating expectations. Global same-store sales growth of 6% was the strongest in three years. U.S. same-store sales rose 7%. Cold beverages helped drive growth in the afternoon, the company said, a time when Starbucks has struggled to boost sales...

Starbucks also remains focused on expanding its business in China. Net store growth there was 16% during the quarter, bringing the chain’s total to more than 30,000 locations world-wide.

FWIW, I think much of Starbucks' growth is due to collecting and analyzing data on its customers. The iPhone app knows my food and drink favorites, the stores I go to most frequently, and the promotions that I respond to. Starbucks also knows how often I do a grab-and-go and how long I linger when I use its WiFi.

With privacy all the rage, Starbucks has to downplay the role of data analysis:

Data collected by Starbucks’s digital programs is helping the company better understand what beverages customers want, said Chief Operating Officer Roz Brewer. “We know a lot more about our customers now,” she said.

I agree. I don't think the sippy cups are why the stock has a 30 PE.

SBUX has nearly doubled the past year.

Vast Benefits, Vast Risks

Microsoft research head Eric Horvitz believes that computers will be able to tell if you're sick. They will know this before you do and before you ask them to look. [bold added]

Eric Horvitz (Microsoft)

He and Microsoft colleague Ryen White, along with co-investigators from Stanford and other universities, have examined anonymized data from hundreds of millions of users of Bing, Microsoft’s search engine. They initially looked at query terms—what you search for—and the time and date of searches. Then, they added IP addresses—your computer’s unique identifier—and other location information. Most recently, they have focused on motor movements such as keystrokes, clicks and mouse activity.

This data can reveal critical diagnostic evidence. People confide intimate secrets about their health—yellow skin, odd-looking stools and other curious symptoms—to their search engine that they do not share with others, even physicians, Horvitz says. And the biometric and geographic information picked up by search engines may uncover secrets of which even users are unaware.

Just because someone did a web search on symptoms doesn't mean that he or she has cancer, but that datum can be correlated with other information, for example, if the user comes from a region with a high incidence of cancer. Similarly, a change in mouse-click speed and accuracy may indicate sleeplessness or a budding neurodegenerative condition, relatively easy to determine from other indicia (age, family history, whether the cellphone was active at 3 a.m., etc.)

We're not there yet, but we're nearing the point when computer networks will know each individual better than they know themselves. The benefits are vast, but so are the risks.

Sodden afterthought--if the Graduate were remade today, the dialogue might well go something like this:

MR. MCGUIRE: I want to say two words to you. Just two words.

BENJAMIN: Yes, sir.

MR. MCGUIRE: Are you listening?

BENJAMIN: Yes, I am.

MR. MCGUIRE: Predictive analytics.