WARGAMING YOUR EVENT HORIZON

                                     Understand The Difference

On Saturday, I spoke to a small group of people [20-30] about trading and how to get started, what to do, etc. During an afternoon break, I had a lovely couple approach me and ask if they could speak to me privately after the function was over. Of course I said sure thing, but wait until everyone else was finished asking questions and then be the last ones left; this would allow time for me to be thorough with whatever they wanted to talk about.

Later, after making personal introductions, the mans wife cut right to the chase; “We are afraid to trade; markets scare us to death; the uncertainty surrounding the whole process seems daunting and we can’t get our arms around it; and finally, we don’t know who to trust.

[I’m thinking to myself, “Well, is this all? Need vitamin advice? How about astrological advice or winning lottery numbers?” Of course I’m just kidding here, but the ease and straightforwardness of her request, along with her implied assumption I can answer this, gives me wonder if I am slowly turning into Bert. If only my Parents and/or Grandparents could see this, they would die all over again; “Wha? You want advice from who? He can’t even mow the lawn right!”].

I know many of you are afraid to trade FX; just like this woman, your fears outweigh your ability to act. The excuses and hurdles are high, and your comfort zone in mediocrity is like an invisible ball and chain around your neck.

Ohhhhhhhh, I’ve seen this phenomenon all my life. Commuting out of the city for 10 years every day for an hour, you get to know all the business types heading home to the burbs a little early. Every day they want to know how much I made; every day after I tell them, they tell me how much they a) hate their boss, b) hate the company they work for, c) hate their career path, and of course d) hate their life in general.

“OK, I say, “Quit your job, lease a membership, and come stand next to me in the pit and just follow me”.

“Hahahahaha, listen to this guy; yea right, my wife would first kill me, and then divorce me. You’re funny Barry, telling me to just do this. Hey guys, I can make $5K a day… Ha hahaha.

“OK, I say, “Then stop asking me how much I made and then shut the hell up and stop bitching about your life. You make your bed and then sleep in it.”

Amazingly ……. Suddenly nobody is laughing or talking anymore.

Fear is something that only exists in your head. What is fear to you is opportunity for others. Fear doesn’t exist outside your head, and has no basis in the universe.

Danger, on the other hand, exists and is real. Stand on a mountain cliff 3.000 feet above the next step, and it doesn’t make any difference how many college degrees you have, how old or young you are, whether you believe in President Goebbels “Hopey Changy” BS, or if the sun is shining or it’s cloudy, take another step forward and you will be dead in short order. You simply take the necessary actions to avoid the danger, or you suffer the consequences of ignoring it.

Following the trading algorithms will solve both fear and danger.

If brains were enough to be successful, everybody that trades would be a millionaire; how come their not?

What have I repeatedly said about the main priority of the trading algorithms? The Number 1 goal of any algorithm should be to keep you out of trouble, and after that make you money. [Sadly, most of the algorithms (trading plans) made available to the retail public have the priorities reversed] Danger of account destruction avoided.

Pure and simple; Fear is the result of not being able to trust or follow an algorithm. You defeat fear in 3 steps; 1) acquaint yourself with the algorithms and the MT4 demo account functions, 2) trade the play money exactly like you would if it was real, and 3) start your real trading with a relatively meaningless amount of money [whatever that amount is for you] that in the worst case scenario isn’t going to change your lifestyle one whit.

Who do I trust? Are you kiddin’ me? Easy.

                                          Exactly: I Trust Me

I don’t want, nor do I ever expect, anybody to “trust me”. You got eyes and you got a brain [well, most of you]; use them. I have given you all the tools necessary for success, as well as access to me. Whether you do things yourself, or you have your funds managed, YOU are always in complete 100% control of your account, your money, and ultimately everything you want to do.

Back to the couple in question; they are going to 1) first open a demo account at Assets FX and trade EURJPY, with the “Long Term –vegas Big Bang Algorithm”, for the first quarter of 2014, 2) after that they will evaluate their success and open a real account to trade themselves with $1K, and also at that time have me manage $1K either with Assets FX or through a brokerage house at C2. Their total risk is $2K; they spend more than that on theatre tickets during the year.

The problem for them is solved; question is, can they follow directions and actually do it.

As we start 2014 trading in a few hours, for you Newbies, it’s time to get off your duff and do something.

Have a great day everyone.

-vegas

RECIPE FOR SUCCESS

                               Don’t Be Shy; Embrace The Truth

As we head for 2014, and the markets aren’t doing much over the Holiday’s, it seems a great time to review what few traders seem to want to face; trader truths you can’t ignore.

First up on the list is that it is hard work to be successful trading FX. Walk up to any schlub off the street [or those who actually read Futures Magazine] and ask him/her, “Would you like to make a million dollars trading Forex from the comfort of your couch or favorite beach lounge chair?”, and what do you think the answer is going to be?

There are 2 very important concepts every trader [real or potential] has to master for the hard work to “morph” into money in the bank; 1) you have to religiously follow a trading plan [algorithm], and 2) you have to successfully navigate and deal with all the tangential issues that affect your trading [i.e., brokerage house issues, time management, family issues, internet connectivity issues, computer malfunctions, money issues, etc.].

You have to be able to follow your game plan [mine, yours, or somebody else], and have the guts [faith] to stick with it. Wanna guess how many times I have heard the following, “Well, I bought this book on trading and followed the RSI, and it led to 4 losses in a row, so I ignored it and then the 5^th time it made a bundle but I wasn’t in the market so I’m down about 30% in my equity”.

If I had a nickel for every time I’ve heard this [or close to it] story, I’d have about $2 million bucks in the bank. It’s hard work following an algorithm!

Over the last year and a half, and too be specific October to a few weeks ago at Forex-Metal, I too have been plagued with issues related to trading that have nothing to do with any specific market [except gold]. The question is not if these types of things will eventually find there way to you, but what you will do about it when they do.

You simply have to pull back from trading and solve them before you continue to trade.  If that means your results suffer until they are solved, then tough toenails. It’s the reality that counts, not your wishes. If you ignore them, or wish that they would just go away [called being delusional], your problems will mount and you won’t make any money from trading evahhhhhhhh. It’s hard work dealing with these issues, and they never go away!

Second on the list is that you need help; no trader is an island in the sea of trading. I challenge anybody, anywhere, anytime to show me another professional trader who has 1) my experience level [30+ years trading], 2) active floor experience [10 years], 3) published author, 4) CFTC documented results over 3 years that yielded annual gains of approximately 1,400%, and 5) public access who has published more material for the trading public for free.

Please, send me the names and web addresses when you find them.

Add all this up and you have the necessary “hard data” to be a successful trader from what I and my staff have made available to you. However, it still isn’t enough.

Get real; you have, you are, and you will make mistakes trading. Some of the most basic ones that are committed by Newbies can be prevented by simply opening a demo account first and making mistakes with play money. Trading capital is like blood in your body; don’t bleed your account from stupidity!

You also have to be persistent and consistent in your trading approach; 1) don’t get sloppy with stops, 2) don’t take “shots” with extreme leverage, 3) don’t change algorithms every 29 minutes, 4) do save part of your successful trades for rainy days or weeks when things aren’t so active or when you want vacation time, 5) don’t spread yourself too thin, e.g. like trading 5 markets at once, 6) don’t ever trade off of crap you hear on TV [Fox, CNBC, or Bloomberg] from talking heads, who are simply there to talk their position, and last but not least 7) don’t ever let your success lead you to believe you are now a market guru genius [you are NOT]; keep your emotions in balance.

Last on the list is motivating yourself for trading. I’m sorry, but if the thought of working your whole life to be in the “pudding business” doesn’t get you motivated, then I don’t know what will.

Being free from Government and Corporate tyranny should be one of your top priorities in life. Unlike President Goebbels voters, whose top priority is to get an EBT card and free health care [that somebody who actually works pays for], your dreams of financial freedom can be realized.

Once you taste trading freedom, you are then terminally unemployable!

I would encourage everyone who has questions about anything I have said here [or in prior posts or published articles] to email me and fire away; if you’re thinking about it, then so is somebody else.

Since we are “going live” on C2, there will be many people who come here in the New Year that are new to the site; there is a literal ton of information and posts from me here. Take your time and go through and remember what is on the top of the Blog Site; Read. Think. Study. Act. Prosper.

It doesn’t get any more concise, or to the point, than this.

Have a great day everyone.

-vegas

AIN’T GONNA TAKE IT

                                                 Ya Think?

Over the last couple of years far too many brokerage houses have said one thing, then turned around at crunch time and caused me many problems. Here is a list of brokerage houses/banks, and the reason for me leaving;

1)      FX Open – got rid of all U.S. clients,

2)      Saxo Bank – irregular options pricing and off market fills,

3)      All U.S. based brokerage houses – idiotic CFTC & NFA rules on leverage, and other things [like Frank-en-Dodd regulations], as well as a tendency to go bankrupt and screwing customers out of their hard earned money,

4)      Hot Forex – got rid of all U.S. clients, but also had issues with requotes and stops,

5)      Forex FS – changed rules on PAMM accounts and lowered payout, along with sub standard customer service.

Well, you can now add to this list Forex-Metal. While I haven’t closed my account yet, it’s only a matter of time [meaning within the next couple of weeks]. I simply cannot do business with a brokerage house that a) lies to me, and b) refuses to contact me in a timely manner when I have a problem. This latest clusterfark started last Wednesday; it’s now the following Monday, and still all issues have not been resolved because they have refused to call me.

Over the last 3 business days [Thursday (not a Holiday outside the U.S.), Friday, and today] myself and the staff have literally beat the bushes talking to over a dozen offshore [meaning outside the U.S., and not necessarily a “tax haven”] brokerage houses that accept U.S. clients. I have found one, I think, that is acceptable to me. We’ll see in the following days.

I’m also looking into different ways to present trading signals for traders that doesn’t involve exorbitant fees and large trading spreads. So, we’ll also see how that turns out in the days ahead.

The biggest problem we are facing is the fact that at least 80% of most brokerage houses outside the U.S. want nothing to do with U.S. clients. They have made a business decision not to mess with anything that has U.S. in it. Thank you President Gobbels.

Fortunately, I see light at the end of the tunnel; I think we will be able to get something started that involves 1) extremely low spreads, 2) trading signals, 3) verified track record results for the public, and 4) the flexibility for you to decide which methods you think best for you and then use them.

It’s not all tied up yet, and I haven’t yet finalized all parts of the equation, but rest assured we will have the best solution where most people can easily choose the best option for themselves.

What it finally comes down to, is that I refuse to be lied to, and I refuse to accept corporate “happy talk” as a solution. When you consider that their primary job [at any brokerage house] is to keep you trading no matter what, you then realize they will tell you anything and everything to keep you there. Once they break the trust you have placed in them, it’s over for me.

So, be of good cheer, as solutions are at hand, and stayed tuned in the days ahead as we go forward. Trading is hard enough; following the algorithm is hard; having to deal with brokerage house issues shouldn’t be part of the process; and when it is, you have to do something about it.

When I look at the algorithm signals from last week, I should have made a bundle of money; instead I’m down a few bucks, and it makes my head want to explode because brokerage house issues dominated the week and prevented me from getting long on a price explosion upwards. Oyyy !!

Since I have spent so much time the last 5 days dealing with this, I have intentionally delayed answering reader emails. I checked this morning, and I have about 50 emails to go through; if one of them is yours I will get to it in the next day or two; just wanted you to know.

Have a great day everyone.

-vegas