24 January 2014

Birthdays
Matthew Lillard b. 1970 (Scooby-Doo, Thir13n Ghosts, Wing Commander)
Stephanie Romanov b. 1969 (Angel)
David Gerrold b. 1944 (screenwriter, The Trouble With Tribbles)
Ernest Borgnine b. 1917 died 8 July 2012 (Gattaca, Laser Mission, Escape From New York, The Black Hole, Future Cop, The Devil’s Rain, The Neptune Factor)
C. L. Moore b. 1911 died 4 April 1987 (author, Northwest Smith, Cthulhu Mythos)
E.T.A. Hoffmann b. 1776 died 25 June 1822 (author, The Sandman, The Tales of Hoffmann, The Nutcracker and the Mouse King)

Only six birthdays this year and only three of them are still alive. Hoffmann is best known for fantasy stories that have been turned into operas, Catherin L. Moore was a very busy writer back in her day and last year's Picture Slot was filled with a shot of Kirk chest deep in tribbles. Doing today's research, I was surprised at how many genre movies and TV shows Ernest Borgnine was in and he will probably be next year's Picture Slot. But this year, what with me being a sucker for Joss Whedon shows and high cheekbones, we are looking at Stephanie Romanov as Lilah Morgan, the villainous lawyer on Angel. As for Matthew Lillard, I've never been much of a fan of Scooby-Doo, live action or cartoon, so unless he makes a sci-fi hit in the future, his chances for being in the Picture Slot are pretty slim.

Many happy returns of the day for Lillard, Romanov and Gerrold, and to the dead, thanks for all the memories.
 

Predictor: Bill Joy, co-founder of Sun Microsystems, speaking at a TED Talk in 2006

Prediction: High end computers will cost $10 in 2020.

Reality: Joy said this eight years ago and we are still six years out, so I can't say with 100% confidence that he is wrong. Still, if I had to bet, I'd bet against this one  even if we stipulate that the screen is a separate part. The chips needed for the best possible gaming computer might come down to that range, but the keyboard, mouse and other input devices will cost more than $10 because they are made from plastic.

With this prediction, we bid farewell to TED talks as our regular Friday source of predictions. Next week, we will welcome Wired Long Bets as our new source for predictions. Many of the same people who have given TED talks also will be involved, but this time they actually bet cash money on whether they are right or wrong.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Saturday is our day to go back to 1893 to see what people thought the 20th Century would look like.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!

17 January 2014

Birthdays
Ray J b. 1981 (Mars Attacks!, Steel)
Zooey Deschanel b. 1980 (The Happening, Tin Man, Bridge to Terabithia, The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy)
Keith Robinson b. 1976 (Power Rangers Lightspeed Rescue)
Freddy Rodriguez b. 1975 (Planet Terror, Lady in the Water)
Genndy Tartakovsky b. 1970 (Artist, Star Wars: Clone Wars, Samurai Jack, The Powerpuff Girls, Dexter’s Laboratory)
Naveen Andrews b. 1969 (Lost, Once Upon a Time in Wonderland, Sinbad, Planet Terror, Rollerball [2002], Mighty Joe Young [1998])
Joshua Malina b. 1966 (The Big Bang Theory, American Horror Story, The Sarah Connor Chronicles, Stargate SG-1, From the Earth to the Moon)
D.J. Caruso b. 1965 (director, I Am Number Four, Smallville, Dark Angel)
Jim Carrey b. 1962 (Kick-Ass 2, A Christmas Carol, The Number 23, Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events, Bruce Almighty, How the Grinch Stole Christmas, Batman Forever, Earth Girls are Easy, Once Bitten)
Denis O'Hare b. 1962 (True Blood, American Horror Story)
Tom Lowell b. 1941 (Escape from the Planet of the Apes, The Invaders, The Addams Family, The Twilight Zone)
Andy Kaufman b. 1949 died 16 May 1984 (Heartbeeps)
James Earl Jones b. 1931 (Star Wars, Stargate SG-1, Lois & Clark, The Meteor Man, Conan the Barbarian, The UFO Incident)
Eartha Kitt b. 1927 (Holes, Erik the Viking, Batman [1967])
Betty White b. 1922 (Lake Placid)

My first "Geez, I'm old!" moment of the morning came by realizing Andy Kaufman has been dead for 30 years. Lots of choices for the Picture Slot today. Last year it was James Earl Jones, but even with his name removed, there's a heck of a lot of star power here. I was this close to putting Betty White in, because All Sentient Beings Love Betty White, and Eartha Kitt, Jim Carrey and Zooey Deschanel are all worthy candidates as well, but I went with Naveen Andrews because I would argue that Lost is the defining genre show this century so far, no matter how bad it sucked at the end.

Many happy returns to all the living on this list, and to Andy Kaufman, thanks for all the weird memories.
 

Predictor: Gregory Stock in 2003

Prediction: We will alter ourselves as much as we have altered the world in the next five to ten years. We will have modified aging, modified emotions. We will have perfected human cloning and the selective implanting of children.

Reality: Did you know that the people who give TED talks are only paid travel expenses and hotel costs? Well, I hope they gave Dr. Stock a ticket on Greyhound and one night at the Travel Lodge, because this steaming pile certainly wasn't worth any more than that. There may come a day when cloning is acceptable and we can "modify" aging, but it's eleven years out from his brave new world and he got nothing right.

Okay, let me amend that slightly. We can "modify" emotion. Watching a TED Talk can almost always piss me off, so that has to count for something.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Saturday is our weekly scheduled trip back to 1893, a time of bold predictions and bolder facial hair.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE! 

10 January 2014

 Birthdays
Alex Meraz b. 1985 (Twilight Saga)
Trini Alvarado b. 1967 (Fringe, The Frighteners)
Fran Walsh b. 1959 (screenwriter, The Frighteners, Lord of the Rings, King Kong [2005], The Hobbit)
James Lapine b. 1949 (playwright, Into the Woods)
Jeff Jones b. 1944 died 19 May 2011 (artist)
William Sanderson b. 1944 (True Blood, Jumanji [TV], Babylon 5, Blade Runner, The X-Files, The Twilight Zone [1988])
Walter Hill b. 1942 (producer, Alien series, Tales from the Crypt [TV], Bordello of Blood, Prometheus)
Douglas Hickox b. 1929 died 25 July 1988 (director, The Giant Behemoth, Theatre of Blood)
Ray Bolger b. 1904 died 15 January 1987 (Wizard of Oz, Babes in Toyland, Battlestar Galactica)

Okay, my first "Geez, I'm old!" moment of the morning. William Sanderson is 70. The biggest name on the list might very well be Ray Bolger, who has very few screen credits given his screen career lasted sixty years. I'm pretty sure he put food on the table with his work on stage.

Many happy returns to the living on the list, and to those who have died, thanks for all the memories.

Predictor: Jared Diamond at the TED Talks in 2003

Predictions: Solomon Islands will lose all logging in 2004 and the Philippines will lose theirs by 2008.

Reality: According to Wikipedia, there is still logging in the Solomon Islands and the Philippines, though there are restrictions and illegal logging is a problem.

As you may know, the people who give TED talks aren't paid, but instead are trying to get publicity for books. His book Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed came out in 2005, so this talk was a little early. He also said Nepal, Colombia and Indonesia were close to collapse, but he didn't give dates. I'm no expert on any of these countries, but looking at their GDP numbers online, all of them did have bad years early this century, but all of them have snapped out of their problems and are showing reasonable growth.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Another prediction from 1893, and yet again it deals with the industry everyone cared about, railroads.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE! 

3 January 2014

Birthdays
Jennifer Lynn Warren b. 1979 (Creature, American Horror Story, The School in the Woods)
Alisen Down b. 1976 (Supernatural, Lost Girl, Stargate, The Day the Earth Stood Still, Battlestar Galactica, Smallville)
Danica McKellar b. 1975 (The Big Bang Theory, Tasmanian Devils, Heatstroke, Path of Destruction, Babylon 5)
Nicholas Gonzalez b. 1974 (Sleepy Hollow, Witches of East End, Grimm, Anacondas: The Hunt for the Blood Orchid)
Matt Ross b. 1970 (Revolution, American Horror Story, Invasion , 12 Monkeys)
Mel Gibson b. 1956 (Signs, Mad Max)
Glen A. Larson b. 1937 (writer, Battlestar Galactica)
Dabney Coleman b. 1932 (WarGames, The Invaders, The Outer Limits)
Robert Loggia b. 1930 (Independence Day, The Six Million Dollar Man, The Bionic Woman, Wonder Woman)
Mara Corday b. 1930 (Tarantula, The Giant Claw, The Black Scorpion)
Ray Milland b. 1905 died 10 March 1986 (Battlestar Galactica, Frogs, X: The Man with the X-Ray Eyes, Panic in Year Zero!, Premature Burial)
J.R.R. Tolkien b. 1892 died 2 September 1973 (author, Lord of the Rings, The Hobbit)

Nice mix on today's list. Mel Gibson as Mad Max was definitely a possibility for The Picture Slot as were the several fabulous babes, but instead we are looking at Tolkien. Until special effects got as good as they are now, Tolkien looked to be stuck with cheesy cartoon adaptations and that awful song Leonard Nimoy sang.  But thanks to improved special effects and the vision of Peter Jackson, we now get these big bloated movies that make my butt twitch something fierce.

Many happy returns of the day to the living, and to Ray Milland and J.R.R. Tolkein, thanks for the memories.
  

Predictor: Ray Kurzweil at TED Talks in 2005.

Prediction: By 2010, computers will disappear from view and be embedded in our clothing. The images will be written directly to our retinas for fully immersive virtual reality.

By 2020, high end computers will sell for about $10.

Reality: 2010 was too early, but Google Glass and computer wrist watch technology are both hoping to get some market share in 2014. They aren't actually "embedded in our clothing" and "fully immersive virtual reality" is like fusion reactors, always just a few years away. (I worked on some VR goggles in the 1990s. The technology wasn't ready and they were just large clumsy headache and nausea inducers.) It remains to be seen if these products will be iPhone sized hits or Segway sized flops.

As for ten dollar high end computers in 2020, the chips might get cheap, but input and output devices are still going to cost some money. I've been wrong before, but I would be surprised if this comes to pass.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

We return to 1893, and a prediction about the wonderful progress that will be seen in the lands to the west of the Mississippi.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!

13 December 2013

Birthdays
Jeffrey Pierce b. 1971 (The Tomorrow People, The Sarah Connor Chronicles, S1m0ne)
Harry Gregson-Williams b. 1961 (Shrek, X-Men Origins: Wolverine, The Chronicles of Narnia, The Borrowers)
Steve Buscemi b. 1957 (Armageddon, Spy Kids 2 and 3, The Island)
Christopher Plummer b. 1929 (Up, Dracula 2000, Twelve Monkeys, Wolf, Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered Country, Dreamscape, Somewhere in Time)
Dick Van Dyke b. 1925 (Night at the Museum, Chitty Chitty Bang Bang, Mary Poppins)
Don Taylor b. 1920 died 29 December 1998 (director, Island of Dr. Moreau, Damien: Omen II, The Final Countdown, Escape from the Planet of the Apes)

Three household names on our list of birthday boys today, but not best known for their work in genre. The Picture Slot goes to Christopher Plummer as the Klingon general Chang, a performance so over the top even Bill Shatner and Ricardo Montalban would have to say, "Chris, buddy... sometimes less is more."

Many happy returns to all the living and to the late Don Taylor, thanks for all the cheesy movies.
 

Predictor: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita at a TED Talk in 2009

Prediction: By the end of 2010, Iran will have enough weapons grade fuel to show the ability to build the bomb. There will be some political support in Iran for building it, but none for testing it. Also by the end of 2010, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad loses power.

Reality: The exact state of Iran's nuclear capability is hard to pin down. As of 2010, they had the ability to produce weapon grade uranium, but it wasn't clear they had made any and they have never announced the production of a bomb. Ahmadinejad was still in office until 2013. Bueno de Mesquita started the talk by saying game theory methods got stuff right 90% of the time. The first prediction was correct, the two about "political support" are hard to test and the one about Ahmadinejad didn't come true. Looks like about 50% right to me.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Saturday is our day to go back to 1893 to see what folks then thought was in store for the 20th Century.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!

6 December 2013

Birthdays
Tommy Wirkola b. 1979 (director, Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters, Dead Snow)
Noel Clarke b. 1975 (Star Trek Into Darkness, Doctor Who)
Colin Salmon b. 1962 (Arrow, Resident Evil, Doctor Who, Alien vs. Predator, Dinotopia)
Nick Park b. 1958 (director, A Grand Day Out, Curse of the Were-Rabbit)
Tom Hulce b. 1953 (Jumper, Frankenstein [1994])
JoBeth Williams b. 1948 (Poltergeist, The Day After)
James Naughton b. 1945 (Planet of the Apes [TV series], Warehouse 13)
Patrick Bachau b. 1938 (Big Ass Spider, 2012, Carnivale, Kindred: The Embraced)
Lance Fuller b. 1928 died 22 December 2001 (This Island Earth, Twilight Zone, Voodoo Woman, The She-Creature, The Bride and the Beast)
Wally Cox b. 1924 died 15 February 1973 (Twilight Zone)
Agnes Moorehead b. 1900 died 30 April 1974 (Bewitched, Twilight Zone)

No huge stars on the list today, but Agnes Moorehead is most recognizable to people of a certain age. Other options I considered were Noel Clarke, who played Mickey in the first seasons of the 21st Century version of Doctor Who, or Wallace and Gromit, Nick Park's most beloved creations.

Many happy returns to the living on today's list and thanks for the memories to the dead. 

Movies released
Star Trek VI:The Undiscovered Country released, 1991

The rule that "even numbered Star Trek movies don't suck" is a bit over-stated. But at least The Undiscovered Country could help us forget the horror that was The Final Frontier.
 

Predictor: Stephen Petranek, editor of Discover  magazine, giving a TED Talk in 2002

Predictions (reality):
The populations in industrialized nations are gaining a year in longevity for every year that passes. (No, they aren't. The only country that made strides like this last decade was Monaco, small and wealthy and for some reason had third world level life expectancy and infant mortality in the early 21st Century. Their more recent numbers have made a remarkable turnaround, bringing infant mortality down to the levels expected in Western Europe and an increase in life expectancy that also is now in line with countries like France and Italy and Spain. Other industrialized nations have seen about a one to two year increase over the last decade.)

The price of rocketry in 21st Century will shrink. Each shuttle launch was about $1.5 billion, we have hopes for $500 million launches to Mars by 2012. (The launch alone for Mars Rover was $820 million, the entire project nearer to $2.5 billion, according to Wikipedia.)

We will increasingly face Mutant Staph infections that will be resistant to antibiotics. (This one he gets right.)

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

In 1925, a guy who would later be played by Gary Cooper predicts something like Pearl Harbor. And I mean something very like Pearl Harbor.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!

29 November 2013

Birthdays
Don Cheadle b. 1964 (Iron Man 2 & 3)
Tom Sizemore b. 1961 (Strange Days, Red Planet)
Kim Delaney b. 1961 (Mission to Mars, Darkman II)
Hinton Battle b. 1956 (Buffy)
Jeff Fahey b. 1952 (Planet Terror, The Lawnmower Man, Under the Dome, Revolution, Lost, Darkman III)
Madeleine L'Engle b. 1918 died 6 September 2007 (A Wrinkle in Time)
C.S. Lewis b. 1898 died 22 November 1963 (Narnia, The Screwtape Letters)

The living on today's list are actors, the dead are writers, and I decided the Picture Slot should go to Madeleine L'Engle, the writer whose work I like best. Next year I might go fanboy and put up a picture of Hinton Battle from the musical episode of Buffy the Vampire Slayer, but I make no promises. C.S. Lewis is part of an odd bit of obituary trivia, dying on one of those days when there actually was a Group of Three with himself, J.F.K. and Aldous Huxley.

Many happy returns to the living on the list.

Predictor: Billy Graham at the 1998 TED talk

Prediction: "The future will be wonderful, but I won't be here to see it."

Reality: Well, it's fifteen years later and the Reverend Graham is still here, so he still got to see some future. He also predicted we were about to go to war with Iraq as of February 1998, and since we bombed them in December 1998, he gets a half point for that. For an actual war, we'd have to wait for Graham's pal George W. Bush to be elected, for us to be attacked by Islamic extremists and for us to blame Saddam Hussein for the attack on some of the flimsiest evidence in recorded history.

He was 80 when he gave this talk and he made a list of ways he was slowing down. I'm not 60 yet and I understand the diminishing abilities thing, I just don't gripe about it in public much past the occasional "Jeez, I'm old". Some might say it would be unfair of me to call the Reverend Graham a whiny little name-dropping drama queen, but then again, it's not fair to the world that Billy hasn't taken his no account son Franklin aside and told that turd to keep his racist pie hole shut.

Yes, life is unfair in many ways.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Back to 1893 to hear from a captain of industry whose name has survived to this day.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!

22 November 2013

Birthdays
Scarlett Johansson b. 1984 (Iron Man, The Avengers, Eight Legged Freaks)
Mark Ruffalo b. 1967 (The Avengers, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Blindness)
Jamie Lee Curtis b. 1958 (Halloween, Virus)
Roy Thomas b. 1940 (Marvel Comics)
Terry Gilliam b. 1940 (director, Brazil, Time Bandits, 12 Monkeys)
Robert Vaughn b, 1932 (Battle Beyond the Stars, Superman III)

A lot of star power on the birthday list today. For people about my age, the only name that might need even a little explaining is Roy Thomas, who was the second in command as a writer and editor at Marvel Comics in the 1960s and 1970s.

Regular readers will not need any explanation as to who got the Picture Slot.

Many happy returns to all our birthday boys and girls.

Movies released 
Star Trek: First Contact released, 1996
Back to the Future: Part II released, 1989

Back to the Future: Part II is full of predictions, but I use them near the anniversary of the date when Marty and Doc go to 2015, which is October 21.

Accept no substitutes.

Prediction: “Anyone who thinks the ANC is going to run South Africa is living in cloud cuckoo land.”

Predictor: Margaret Thatcher, 1987

Reality: TED Talks have been around since 1984, but Margaret Thatcher was never invited. Instead, this quote went up on the board during a 2009 talk by Ian Goldin about globalization that had no useful predictions of his own, but instead had a quote by the Iron Lady that served two purposes.

1) Reminding us that predictions about big changes are hard and

2) Anyone with a functioning brain stem can remember that conservatives may say they aren't racist, but they never have a problem with it when there's a buck to be made.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Saturday means a return to 1893, and this week it means we will hear from a feminist titan of industry.

Bet you thought they didn't exist in the 19th Century. I was a little surprised myself.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!
 

15 November 2013

Birthdays
Jessica Stevenson Hynes b. 1972 (Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, Doctor Who, Shaun of the Dead)
Kevin J. O’Connor b. 1963 (G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra, Van Helsing, The Mummy)
Bob Gunton b. 1945 (Star Trek: The Next Generation, Demolition Man)
Yaphet Kotto b. 1939 (The Puppet Masters, SeaQuest 2032, The Running Man, Alien)
Gloria Foster b. 1933 died 29 September 2001 (The Matrix)
J.G. Ballard b. 1930 died 19 April 2009 (writer, The Drowned World, The Burning World, Crash)

No A-List stars today, but I go with Yaphet Kotto from Alien in the Picture Slot. While Star Wars and Star Trek are the franchises that made Hollywood change the way they looked at science fiction, there also needed to be other financial success stories to make the genre work, and Alien certainly qualifies.

Many happy returns to all the living on the list.

Movies released
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets released 2002

Prediction: In 2007, 65 million compact flourescent light bulbs were purchased, and in 2008 this will rise to 100 million.

Predictor: John Doerr, venture capitalist at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, speaking at a TED talk in 2007

Reality: Welcome to TED Talks predictions! Exciting, dynamic, important people will give you twenty minutes of their valuable time and your mind will be B-L-O-W-N! (No dinner and a movie first.)

This first one is a bust. According to EnergyStar, 2007 was a peak year and this guy was predicting a 50% increase, which is hard to accomplish even when things are going great. Not being a regular consumer of right wing news, I don't know when the "CFB bad! Evil librul plot!" stories started to be circulated, but in any case, these things are still selling. As of 2012, they are mandated in Europe and Australia, but the big increase Doerr predicted for 2008 failed to materialize.

Is your mind feeling kind of... unblown? Yeah, get used to it on Fridays.

Source: On Netflix, I found a video called TED Talks: Humanity's Future, so I felt I had to watch it.

Understand, I watched it SO YOU DON'T HAVE TO! That's the basic premise of the blog, though you are welcome to read or watch any of the stuff I use as prediction material or even watch some movie or read a book because one of the birthdays made you think something would be cool. A lot of them are cool.

This one. Not cool. Four hours of your life that won't be coming back.

The things I do for this hobby. Oi! Still, it's better than keeping track of the supermarket gossip rags. There are a lot more chances for finding out interesting things looking at sci-fi and predictions than there are reading about the Kardashians and Teen Mom week after week.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Another trip back to 1893, with a former Commissioner of Indian Affairs predicting the fate of the native Americans in the 20th Century.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!