Prospect Hoarding

The Yankees made an about face in regards to their organizational strategy and one has to wonder if they have taken it too far in refusing to package Kennedy up with Hughes to land Johan.

Last year Philip Hughes was ranked as Baseball America's #1 minor league pitching prospect. Is it reasonable to thus expect him to fulfill his expectations? Let us look at BA's top three pitching prospects each year starting with 1990: Steve Avery, Ben McDonald, Kiki Jones; 1991 - Todd Van Poppel, Roger Salkeld, Arthur Rhodes; 1992 - Brien Taylor, Van Poppel, Salkeld; 1993 - Taylor, Van Poppel, Jason Bere; 1994 - James Baldwin, Jose Silva, Darren Dreifort; 1995 - Armando Benitez, Bill Pulsipher, Alan Benes; 1996 - Paul Wilson, Benes, Livan Hernandez; 1997, 1998 - Kerry Wood, Matt White, Kris Benson; 1999 - Rick Ankiel, Bruce Chen, Brad Penny; 2000 - Ankiel, Ryan Anderson, John Patterson; 2001 - Josh Beckett, Jon Rauch, Ben Sheets; 2002 - Beckett, Mark Prior, Juan Cruz; 2003 - Jesse Foppert, Jose Contreras, Gavin Floyd; 2004 - Edwin Jackson, Greg Miller, Scott Kazmir.

I am not saying that Hughes will be worthless, but you keep hearing Rob Neyer mention in chats that any young pitcher is and extremely unlikely bet to win 100 games in their career. For the Yankees who are looking to put wins up now and compete now, Johan is just about a slam dunk to outperform Hughes over the next seven years and add more value if you remove money from the equation, which is not something I would typically encourage for teams not the Yankees.

Also, the Yankees have built a ton of depth. They have Joba, who might be Jebus incarnate, and Horne as pitching prospects near big league ready if they did move Hughes and Kennedy. The comparison between Horne and Kennedy has been that Kennedy is more refined whereas Horne has better stuff, but further away from contributing and less of a bet to attain his ceiling.

You also cannot ignore the existence of Humber Sanchez, though counting on him shouldn't be high on the Yankees to do list, the high ceiling of Dellin Betances, and Andrew Brackman who could be just as good as any pitching prospect out there. In fact, many teams would be ecstatic to have those five as their top arms and some might actually murder someone. I'm not talking about murder in the hyperbole sense, but actual cold blooded murder. Also, te Yankees can feel free to draft more pitching in 2008 to supplant the two that they lost.

The Yankees could spend on Johan and not blink. They have serious cash coming off the books in 2009 that will easily cover his salary and will be able to add more revenue after their new stadium opens up. Some teams are not in a postion to give up two of their three best pitching prospects, but the Yankees are one of the few teams that could do that. Throw on top of it the fact that if you get Johan Santana, Boston does not get him and that is no small thing considering the best team in the bigs would get substantially better. That should help assauge any wound left by missing out whatever Hughes turns into.

I like how the Yankees now value their young players, but having Kennedy be a deal breaker is truly silly, unless they really do not want Santana. With Wang and Joba around, the Yankees will still have youth in the rotation with more on the way. If the interest is genuine on the Yankees behalf, it is beyond me how it has not gotten done as of yet. They simply cannot get this deal done with Melky as the #2 piece the Twins are getting back and giving up Kennedy in addition to Hughes should be an acceptable casuality for the Yankees and a great haul for the Twins.


* * *

I'm all for making fun of people, but the NY Times really did not need to do this. The man looks funny enough as is, but they felt it necessary to pick an image to make him look even more ridiculous.

It does however look like he is gearing up for National Talk Like a Pirate Day.

Many people think that the Tigers looking to extend Willis before he has even thrown a pitch is crazy. It is, but not as crazy as people think. Unless his arm falls off, he will strangely enough be worth it and possibly even a bargain. With the going rate of crappy innings eaters, he should be at least worth what is being bandied about and he will not cost them a four year deal at $11+ million down the line. Sure he might toss up a 5.00 ERA, but that type of production has become expensive these days.

The Tigers get him for a three years as opposed to a four year deal that he would be looking for on the open market and for a few million less than they would have to pay a comparable pitcher. Also, the upside is that if he gets a bit of his mojo back, he is unequivocally a bargain. So while on the surface it looks insane just like the Gil Meche deal did, it will probably end up not looking quite as bad just like the Meche deal.

By way of Ossy...

The real hard part is to watch the entire thing at work. I had made it about 1/3 of the way through before I had to shut it off due to excessive laughing at wacky foreigners.

Zappos.com kicks ass. I ordered a nifty pair of sneakers from there at about 8:30 on Wednesday night. Those bad boys were at my doorstep the next day at about 7:00 Thursday night and I had the pleasure of not paying any shipping.

UPDATE: Want a Wii? Loyal ready Ossy is dishing one off. Call him, buy it, and enjoy.

The Demise of the Yankees?

Could I still call myself a man if I use peppermint shaving cream? I'm not sure I can, but it smells to good not to try.

Speaking of men being men, Joe Torre showed he was a man by not allowing himself to work for the petty sum of $5 million (which still makes him the highest paid manager incidentally). Of course, there is more at play here. The Yankees gave off signs that they did not want him so why would Torre put himself in a position where he was not wanted? However, anyone saying the Yankees 'lowballed' him is nuts. Yes, it is less than he made in guaranteed money, but what is wrong with pay for performance? Aging players get incentive laden contracts so they have to prove their worth, why not managers as well?

He could certainly still feed his family on that salary and take some nice vacations, but that is not the real point. The real point is the Yankees made an offer that they hoped he would not take and he did not take it thereby making it look like the Yankees made a valiant offer. No counteroffer by the Yankees, just an "oh well, let us start looking for new managers". If the Yankees knew he was not going to take the offer, why be childish about it and just throw that out there? Being manager of a baseball team is not a position for life and it is their right to choose not to have him. It is as simple as that and should have been treated thusly, but we are not talking about normal teams with normal ways of going about things.

'Tis the life of anyone who wants to be involved with the most prestigious and virtuous franchise in organized sports. Also, the coverage on this thing has been ridiculous. It is getting covered like it was the death of JFK Jr. or Lady Diana. Really, everyone is acting like the Yankees made some huge mistake when all they really did is got rid of a marginal to bad in game manager and will replace him with someone with the same skill set or possibly even a better skill set. I am fairly certain that Torre's intangibles should be reasonably replicated as long as a coherent individual is awarded the job.

Next year will not be impacted whatsoever on the loss of the greatest human being alive. The outcome of the Yankees season does not hinge on this and things will chug along merrily. Mo will be back if he gets an offer, which he will. Posada will be back if he gets an offer, which he will. A-Rod will be back if he gets paid, which might not happen. But in the end, nothing is going to change in Yankee-land and things will be back to 'normal' shortly. In closing, who gives a fuck about Joe Torre?

Yes, the easy answer would be me because I'm writing about it, but give me a break. It is a looooong off-season and there has been nary a work from the Mets.

* * *

Bobby V. would be a horrible choice to coach the Yankees given his ability to rub veterans the wrong way. Also, why would he leave there? He has success, is a god, and is probably the tallest guy around. Over there, he is treated extremely well and compensated well and managers here just get shit on and have the shelf life of milk on the front lawn in mid-summer. Sure, he might think he has something to prove and might want to prove something back in the bigs, but there is something to be said for quality of life. Being the manager of the Yankees does not really support that quality of life thing unless you are winning a World Series every year.

Boras making sense?

"Say Alex never would have left Texas and had the year he just had with the Rangers - 54 homers and 156 RBIs and Gold Glove-caliber defense - and then as was his right, opted out. Do you think the Yankees would be interested in signing him as a free agent at whatever cost? And do you think the Yankees would give him a deadline?"

Great point. The Yankees are trying to stand toe to toe with him for no reason at all. They are just penny pinching but when phrased like Boras did above, it makes sense to me. Why should it matter? If the Yankees want him, they will still have a chance like everyone else. Besides, are they truly caught off guard here? Are they really fooling themselves into thinking A-Rod should have some loyalty to them? His first few years as a Yankee were extremely bumpy and now it should be water under the bridge? After getting ridiculed after the monster seasons he put up, they should be lucky he is even considering staying. But in the end, it is Scott Boras. The man loves opting out of contracts and thrives off free agency.

So if you are keeping score....Glavine does not care....Green cares.

Eureka!

The only way Sabean can pry top young hitters loose from other clubs is by dangling one of his top two young pitchers, Cain or Tim Lincecum, but he’s not willing to do that and other teams won’t give up much for Noah Lowry, who’s a No. 3 or 4 starter on a good staff.

The Giants truly have two options here.

1) Suck for a while.
2) Trade from a position of strength to try and bolster your team in weak areas.

Pitching gets back major premiums. Young pitching gets someone's first and second born.

The Times Are A-Changin'

These are not your slightly older uncle's Yankees. The winds of change are blowing in the Bronx and it signals a possible changing of the guard. The Yankees have gotten younger and should continue to get younger and might not be the Yankees of old who would bid on a player and pay as much as needed to get the deal done. They truly seem committed to building a team the right way.

They have said they will not pursue A-Rod if he opts out and they might not. Even if they do get involved with the bidding, they probably will not just keep bidding until everyone is trumped, which likely means he will be gone. Despite how vital he is to the team, I can see them just holding tight and sticking to a number and if someone blows them out of the water, so be it. Mike Lowell will be out there and there were rumors that Aramis Ramirez might be available opening up a spot (and cash) for A-Rod on the Cubs.

Regardless, there is always some darkhorse team that comes out of nowhere to bid some ridiculous amount and it is clear there are teams with glaring needs and some cash that could jump into the A-Rod sweepstakes and outbid the Yankees. It would not surprise many people to see someone put their next ten years of financial flexibility in jeopardy out of desperation.

As old adage goes, it is insane to do the same thing over and over and expect different results. Well, what the Yankees have been doing is not working which is why they will probably do things uncharacteristically. They might be in a bit of transitional phase while they cleanse their team of the Giambis, Damons, Matsuis, Mussinas, etc. They really cannot go after any top tier talent (not that there is any out there this off-season) with every position taken with the exception of first and possibly third and catcher and they need to bring along their youth.

You might see the Yankees hold tight this off season and go back into battle with the same crew with the idea that a full year with Duncan, Hughes, Kennedy, and Chamberlain might provide that extra spark. Lowell might be a possible acquisition and a trade might be in the works with their sudden glut of pitching talent, but I cannot see anything gigantic happening. The wildcard is how Posada and Rivera might be affected if Torre leaves, but I think they will ultimately be back and I will make a bold prediction now. If A-Rod leaves, the Yankees team will not make the playoffs in '08. That is not to say that is a bad thing as their young pitchers will be taking lumps and team will be gearing up for 2009.

* * *

Two days and two Yankees-centric posts? I don't get it either. I think I have not put enough time in to digest what the Mets need to do. I need to get a 30-pack of PBRs and write something on the topic.

Matsui back in spotlight with stellar playoff run

Who would have thought that headline would have ever been printed about Kazuo?

In Colorado's three-game sweep of the Phillies, the second baseman went 5-for-12 (.417) with a double, two triples and six RBIs. His Game 2 grand slam in Philadelphia was, in Matsui's words, "very cool, my best moment in baseball."

How is this not #1?

50. Zimmer charges Pedro, Game 3, 2003 (Yankees vs. Red Sox): A Yankee (Karim Garcia!) gets plunked by Pedro Martinez. Pedro then gestures to the Yankee dugout, possibly indicating he's going to throw at their heads. Fast-forward to a high-inside Roger Clemens pitch to Manny Ramirez. Benches clear and 72-year-old Yankees bench coach Don Zimmer tries to take out Pedro, only to be thrown to the ground.

It has it all. Drama, comedy, brawling, excitement, a fat guy....

Out of the top fifty though, a team that has not been to the playoffs all that much surely was involved in a lot of intense moments. Come to think about it, that does not surprise me at all the Mets would check in so many times. Nothing is ever easy with the Mets and good or bad, the Mets bring out some pretty intense emotions.

Unless you are into a Michael Barrett type mood, Ramon and LoDuca should be brought back.

Ken has some info...

The White Sox, Tigers and Mets are among the teams that could be interested in Eckstein — and Eckstein would figure to be open-minded if the Mets or another club wanted him to move to second base.

Four words.

Please God. Not him.

Also from the above link:

Rather than trade left-hander Johan Santana, the Twins might be better off moving closer Joe Nathan, whom they could replace internally with righty Pat Neshek. The Twins are certain to exercise Nathan's $6 million option, and the scarcity of quality closers on the open market could bring the Twins a substantial return. The Yankees might be first in line for Nathan if they lose Mariano Rivera as a free agent. The Mets could not ignore Nathan, either, even with closer Billy Wagner signed through 2009...

Trading Nathan would be a smart thing unless they decide to just go for it. However, going for it would not be the right thing to do since they direly need to acquire some pop if they plan to actually make some real noise. Frankly, they should explore trading Johan and Nothan to see if they can bring in a monumental haul.

From Bada....Waldman crying.... I can listen to that all day. In fact, while we are laughing at her, give this one another listen.

If that does not satiate that voracious appetite of yours of laughing at Suzyn Waldman, enjoy this one.

Save Joe Torre

Sizemore rounding third . . .
Here's Damon's throw to the plate . . .
Bounce bounce bounce bounce bounce
~ Rob Neyer

I was thinking about the Joe Torre situation and I truly believe that we as anti-Yankee people should endorse him coming back in 2008. God forbid they get someone that can effectively use a bullpen. If Torre knew how to navigate through late inning pitching changes, he might have two more World Series rings to add to his collection.

Sure, that is pure speculation, but I am reasonably sure there were two series that I saw that were a directly effected by bullpen moves. I for one am fully supporting his return and I do believe we should pitch in and perhaps start a petition. I do think all our efforts would be for naught as I think they both move on, but we simply cannot give up the dream.

As to who would replace him if he was not brought back, the buzz has been that Tony LaRussa might be choice. According to Madden, LaRussa wants to manage at one more stop and have a chance to win another championship. The Yankees would certainly fit that bill and it allows Mattingly to get more experience under his belt. It does make sense since the Yankees would never go with a 'no-namer' and still positions Donnie Baseball as the heir whereas Girardi would probably be in for the long haul and blocking the Boss's favorite.

Of course popular notion is that no one could handle the media as well as Torre, but I call bullshit. I've heard many o' manager do pre/post games, including Eric Wedge during these playoffs, and many are very savvy and intelligent. The notion that no one else could do it is simply false and utterly ridiculous. Torre's staunchest supporters have always pointed to his handling of personalities, his even keeled approach, and the way he handles the media as the reason he is so successful in New York and simply do not believe anyone could do that outside of Yankee blood presumably.

I think all those people need to wake up and realize that Joe Torre does not walk on water, his poo does in fact stink, and the man is a marginal manager at best. Sure, he says nice things to the media, but I do believe a lot of people would have the ability to do that and LaRussa, Mattingly, or Girardi would be able to do just swell. It might be weird for a bit without him, but I'm sure things will return to 'normal' for the Yankees shortly.

* * *

Ha ha!

Clemens and his agents, the Hendricks brothers, a wily band of career plotters, knew the position the Yankees were in and held them up for a prorated $28 million salary, the highest single-season salary a major league player has ever had.

Clemens’s first start for the Yankees came June 9, which set his salary for the season at $17,442,622. Making 17 starts during the season, he earned roughly $1 million a start. But Clemens, a six-time 20-game winner and a seven-time winner of the Cy Young award, has the credentials to demand that level of pay, or whatever level of pay a club is willing to give.

Even if he was to pitch, he would have to do it for less than $10 million for sure. I hope he can manage to feed his family on that.

For the record, I seriously doubt he will be back.

Tim Marchan does not like the NL.

The Rockies and the Diamondbacks are the best on offer from the NL this year. One of them is going to follow in the proud tradition of last year's 83-win St. Louis Cardinals. Aside from our man in the Sangre de Cristos (and, possibly, the Almighty), no one should care all that much more than they care about Japan's Championship Series. The real title fight starts Friday, in Boston.

That is the load of crap. I do not think I need to remind anyone that 2000 went to the AL, 2001 went to the NL, 2002 went to the AL, 2003 went to the NL, 2004 went to the AL, 2005 went to the AL, and 2006 went to the NL. I may not be the smartest human in the world, but the NL has fared well despite being overmatched on paper in every contest that they won.

The AL winner is hardly a surefire bet to win anything. Yes, there are more talented teams in the AL, but I think history has proved that the NL has a shot here and I certainly do not agree that the NL does not have a team that the casual fan can get behind. Both teams are exactly the type of exciting team (and especially the Rockies) that a casual fan can get behind as they are the quintessential underdog.

Call me crazy, but there is a lot of young talented teams in the NL that have bright futures. Things go in ebbs and flows and the NL will rise again and may very well be on the verge of growing up if the Mets can finally make that jump to a perennial playoff team, the Dodgers young guys get a chance to play, the D-Backs keep taking steps forward, the Brewers keep getting better, and the Rockies keep up their resurgence.

There are teams that are loaded with talent that are extremely close to turning a corner and that is impossible to ignore.

Tough Road Ahead

The Yankees are hot right now to put it mildly and they seem to be putting up a touchdown and a field goal every game. While they may look like the best team in the bigs, they have sixty four games left entering today's action and have dug themselves a bit of a hole. I was at a BBQ this Sunday and baseball starting getting discussed. I never miss a chance to jump into some baseball talk so I dipped my toes in the proverbial pool. Of course it was a meat headed Yankee fan blow hard-ing about how easy their schedule was with 28 games against under .500 teams to start the second half and how they were going to win the AL East.

He did make a true statement in regards to their schedule, but I wanted to point out that the Red Sox do not exactly have it hard with twelve! games coming against the hapless Rays in the second half and many more games against Baltimore and Toronto. To which he replied, "I guarantee they finish first...the Yankees are the best team money can buy." I tried to go beyond that and how historic their comeback would be, but he kept repeating his previous statement and being very dismissive to whatever anyone tried to counter with. It was just another failed attempt at constructive baseball talk with a Yankee fan that was stunted by ridiculous statements serving as the basis of an argument that really cannot be countered.

While it would not take much of an argument to prove the Yankees are in fact not the 'best team money can buy', their bigger problem seems to be consistency. They are hot now, but they probably will not remain so for the remainder of the season.

Games 01 through 21: .381 winning %
Games 22 through 32: .727 winning %
Games 33 through 50: .278 winning %
Games 51 through 67: .824 winning %
Games 68 through 78: .182 winning %
Games 79 through 98: .750 winning %

While the Yankees are clearly in a better position now than they were in the beginning of the year with their rotation picture setting up nicely, they still have bullpen issues and they will not outscore their opposition by double digits every game. They need to make up a lot of games and need their bullpen to help out in a big way and they have no room for error at this junction.

If the Yankees go 42 and 22 (.656 wining %) for the rest of the season and Boston goes 35-28 (.556 winning %), Boston still takes the AL East. The Red Sox would have to have a .524 winning % with the Yankees owning a .656 winning % for them to take the East. In short, it is not likely. If Boston simply maintains their current pace, the Yankees will finish four games out with a .656 winning %. An admirable comeback for sure, but it is not getting it done. Furthermore, New York would have to have a .734 winning % to take the East if Boston continues at the same pace.

But we are not just talking about the AL East and we are including the Wild Card. If Cleveland (.586), Detroit (.608), Seattle (.563), Los Angeles (.582), and Boston (.606) each play out the rest of the season at their current winning % while the Yankees play .656 ball, the Yankees miss the playoffs by one game. If we assume Detroit continues looking like the team to beat and Cleveland is the favorite for the Wild Card, they would have to play .556 ball from here on out with the Yankees playing .656 ball to slide into the playoffs over them.

However, that scenario ignores the AL West altogether and Seattle can finish in front of the Yankees in that scenario with a .621 winning % while LA can finish in front with a .594 winning %. Overall, the Yankees' playoff odds have improved and they now have a 1 in 5 shot of making the playoffs. However, a lot has to go right and a lot of teams have to falter. The Twins are also on their heals which adds in another dynamic.

Most scenarios that include them taking the Wild Card have them winning a lot more games than they lose with a lot of other teams playing worse than they have all season. Chances are, there will be quite a few teams that play better or the same rather than worse with the Yankees playing not quite up to the level of a .656 ballclub. That is just too hard with their bullpen as it is currently constructed. Can they do it? Obviously, but it is still unlikely.

* * *

Dayn Perry has his Power Rankings out and the Mets check in at #6 and the top NL team on the list.

Mike Carp gets some praise.

One NL team official praised Double-A first baseman Mike Carp yesterday, saying, "Carp's a really good-looking young hitter. He's 20 years old out of high school and he works the count and does everything you want in a young hitter." As of yesterday, Carp, who turned 21 last month, was hitting .268 with six homers and 29 RBIs in 54 games for Binghamton.

He may be working the count, but he is not walking all that much nor flashing much pop in a hitter's league. Being first baseman, that is simply not good enough. He knocked 17 homers in a pitcher's league last year and looked to be on the precipice of becoming a top notch prospect and heir to Carlos Delgado, but his stock as undoubtedly fallen a bit.

Mike Pelfrey gets some mixed reviews...

As for the Mets' prospects, another NL team official praised Pelfrey, despite his major-league struggles this season (0-7, 6.12 ERA), calling him "everything you look for."

One AL team executive, asked if Pelfrey had lost value because of his struggles or whether that was too small a sample, said, "That's a good question. I would say some of these guys are more famous when they're not in the big leagues. The Baseball America buildup seems to carry a little more weight than when these guys are in the big leagues."

Julio fires back at the Mets.

"When you get a month without playing, when you get four at-bats in a month against closers, the best in the league, I don't think anybody's that good," Franco said yesterday before the Braves played the Giants at AT&T Park. "I don't think anybody is good enough to have four at-bats in a month against closers and be successful at it."

Point taken, but there was a whole lotta unproductive at-bats that led to that point.

The Braves have given Franco more of an opportunity, with little to show for it so far. On July 18, the Braves picked up Franco off waivers; in his first game, July 19, he stroked a two-run single in a 10-1 victory over the Cardinals. He then went hitless in his next 10 at-bats.

That sounds about right.

"If there's someone that knows how to use me and get the best out of me, it's Bobby [Cox, the Braves' manager]. Coming back here, I only have good memories."

A manager cannot production out of a player who does not have the ability to produce in the bigs anymore...not even the great Bobby Cox. I'm still shocked the Braves thought he would be a value add to the club.

Some people use Victoria's Secret catalogs and Tim Marchman uses Jose Reyes.

Who wants to bet "Stand" Pat Gillick does nothing at the break? And really, do they have much to trade anyway?

The Mets are interested in Mark Lorretta and that is certainly a move I would welcome. Slotting him in the two hole or having him come off the bench would be swellicious, but GMs are asking for the moon these days and Ruben Gotay is killing it anyway.

Also within the above link, some nice pictures of Pedro.

I now dub thee....Johnny Long Ball. Really, it is hard to not giggle like a school girl when a pitcher goes deep and takes a curtain call. However, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets brushed for that homerun trot he has.

Lastings again last night consistently had good at bats and he just punishes the baseball when he makes contact. He topped off his night with a monster shot and I loved how Keith asked Willie about getting him more playing time even when Alou comes back. Randolph said that he would try while working everyone in and apparently Willie is still the only one who doesn't get it. As Gary pointed out, he has eleven hits and eleven RBIs. Lastings can make things happen and can greatly help this team out with his bat, glove, speed, and arm.

One thing that I was not all that thrilled about was when he got hit in the elbow and did not move. However, the problem is that everyone does it and I think the umps should start taking a stand. It is hard to get aggravated with him specifically because I've seen the scrappy and ever intangible David Eckstein to superstars to unknowns do it. Of course, I'm sure someone will blow that out of proportion along with his little homerun dance with Profesor Reyes.

I saw Reyes kiss his bat tonight during the game, but did anyone see Kent lick his bat on Sunday? He licked the fucking bat! Who licks their bat? It was definitely slightly disturbing and I have had nightmares ever since.

Eddie Kunz has signed for a reported $720,000. He will be reporting the GCL and probably be moved up quickly to Brooklyn.

Moises just cannot win. Him and Cliff Floyd must have some sort of hex.