It's Monday and We're Mediocre!

For now at least....

I say that thinking maybe, just maybe the Mets are poised to break out. Jose has his OPS+ up to 117 and is looking like an MVP again. Shame on everyone who started to say crazy things like the Mets should have dished him off for Santana and not Gomez (102 OPS+ in the OF...a 117 OPS+ at short is miles more valuable), Mulvey (4.07 ERA and .279 BAA in Rochester), Humber (5.53 ERA and .300 BAA in Rochester), and Guerra (4.23 ERA). I like all those guys and still believe in them long term, but Jose Reyes is worth more than all of them in a trade.

The Mets are now tied with Atlanta who has been in a bit of a free fall and are 3.5 games in back of the Phillies. One game of .500 means the Mets are pretty close to under .500 which is a bad thing for a $140 million team. After going 1-7 from May 14th through May 26th, the Mets have went 5-1 to get over the hump of respectability and need to apply the pressure with San Fran, San Diego, Texas, Seattle, and Colorado in their not so distant future.

Sure I am stating the obvious, but the obvious is not always that obvious. Take Aaron Heilman for example. He is murdering righties to the tune of a .209/.291/.239 while getting murdered by lefties to the tune of a .391/.473/.783 line. And yet he faces way too many lefties. Why is this? I have no idea but he has to be a ROOGY or demoted to figure things out. Those are the two options. I still think he has some skill, but it is not showing itself right now. Enter the problem....Feliciano is playing more like a LOOGY and now the Mets have two ROOGYs.

That is entirely too many guys who have trouble with batters from the opposite side of the plate. Schoeneweis has been great, but still showing a bit of a LOOGY split. This bullpen has the ability to be tremendous, but Feliciano and Heilman need to figure out how they got guys from the opposite side of the plate out in 2007 or else they will be in trouble. Simply too many specialists and bullpen that is not deep enough. If Dirty can actually stick this time, that will be a big boon and I think Vargas should help out in the pen as well, but right now, Heilman should be a ROOGY with Smith and Feliciano picking up more of a role as a non-specialist until something works itself out.

* * *

Keith Law talks draft and it seems as though the Mets might have to rethink their choice of picks.

Brett Lawrie is heavily in Cincinnati's mix at No. 7, while Jason Castro has popped up at No. 8 to the White Sox or perhaps at No. 9 to Washington. If the Reds don't take a college pitcher, then both Houston (Aaron Crow?) and Texas (Shooter Hunt, Christian Friedrich) will likely go in that direction, unless a top player falls to Texas due to signability concerns.

Castro was who the Mets were targeting with one of their two first rounds picks and Law mused that Lawrie might be a fit for the Mets who are looking for more positional depth.

With so many bad managers out there, you would think Wally Backman would get a shot.

"All I need is an interview," Wally Backman said. "If they want the best person to take care of their players, I know I'm the right guy. I'll earn my spot."

Backman wasn't talking about Willie Randolph's job. He was talking about any job in the New York Mets organization or any job in affiliated baseball. Because each major league team has about seven minor league teams, that's about 200 managerial jobs. Backman, a three-time manager of the year award winner, is not good enough for one of those?

What is the harm in giving him a spot in the farm to see how he does?

Mark Prior = D - O - N - E

Jay Bruce? Pretty good. And really, this really shows you a thing or two about drafting. The Mets were down to Pelfrey and Bruce in the 2005 draft and they went with Pelfrey. Not that I could argue all that much at the time because Pelfrey looked special, but their age and perceived 'closeness' to the bigs probably factored in.

Jay Bruce owns a cool 331 OPS+ (albeit in six games) at 21 years old and looks like a super star and Mike Pelfrey owns an 81 ERA+ at 24 (soon to be 25) and is still trying to find his way. Who do you think would help more this season? Draft the top talent on the board and operate in no other fashion. The rest will work itself out and they really need to take note of this for the upcoming draft.

Kunz is in AA with a 3.91 ERA. I would have preferred a high school guy with huge upside than a close to the bigs reliever. Enough with the draft disasters of the past few years and loosen the purse strings and get some fucking talent.

Pedro is more of a character to me these days than a big part of this team's success. It is nice to have him around an all, but I am not expecting much. That is not to say he can not and will not add much, but I think people should temper their expectations on what type of impact he will have on this team. I think he adds to the clubhouse in a big way, but I find it hard to pin the happiness of the team on one guy.

I used to think otherwise, but I have changed my mind. He might help out the bullpen by pushing Vargas out there, but that will remain to be seen as a big help until Vargas starts producing out there.

Pelfrey has been bad, but not bad enough to jettison him back to the minors. How bad would any one of us rip another organization for taking a big league retread like Vargas, who has done well, over a guy who might be a big part of the team's future?

I think Pelfrey needs to stay. Vargas has an ERA+ of 90 vs. Pelfrey's ERA+ of 81. Vargas is 30 going on 31 and Pelfrey is 24 going on 25. Unless Pelfrey blows up, he needs to stay in the rotation and the Mets have to think about what they really want from him because right now the difference is minimal. If they are done with him and think he offers nothing, then move on. If they still think he can offer something, as I do, he 100% needs to stay.

Ryan Church is still playing some insanely good ball. He was concussed and just came back so I get batting him sixth, but he needs to start hitting in the top third of the order. Bat him 2nd or 3rd and adjust accordingly. I would not mind getting Church more RBI opportunities and more protection.

Enter in the problem....Castillo now has an OPS+ of 98 and has become league average. But it is the worst league average you can be with his nine XBHs. Sure he steals a few bases, but with the exception of his recent power surge, does not offer much thump. Give me some thump through the top of order and I'll show you a team that can wear out the opposing starting pitchers quickly.

Tatis has been playing well and the Mets should ride him like a rented mule.

At least Aaron has a good support system... Just so crazy how one of the top relievers in the bigs can go to crap. I still believe he can turn it around, but now you have to wonder if it is more mental than anything else.

BP has some valuable insight into Johan.

When Santana was supposedly heading to the Red Sox or Yankees, there were whispers that his problems with the long ball would be exacerbated there, due to their parks' respective leanings towards aiding offense. When he was eventually dealt to the Mets, these whispers were silenced, thanks to the offense-dampening Shea Stadium. However, what we have seen from Santana in 2008 belies the nature of the stadium, as his HR/9 has climbed from 1.4 to 1.5 per nine. Granted, he's gone from giving up 30 homers per 200 innings to 32 over the same time frame, but the thing that has Mets fans worried is that he was supposed improve, at least superficially, thanks to a league switch and move to a pitcher-friendly haven.

This has not happened for a few reasons. First, Santana has lost additional velocity. He's dipped another half-a-mile per hour on his fastball, which had already dropped from 93.1 to 91.7 mph. He rarely used his cutter in the past, but it's been cut out of the equation entirely at this point. The past two seasons have shown Santana using his fastball more so than in the past, despite its status as an inferior pitch relative to what he was capable of before. It's a bit much to say Santana's lost it—he's still one of the top pitchers in the NL thanks to low walk totals and a still-excellent 7.9 K/9—but this is not the Santana the Mets thought they were trading for, the one they signed to pitch for them through 2013. Though it has not hurt them too much in 2008—the Mets have other problems to focus on outside of Santana's rising homer totals—it's something that's going to become bothersome and problematic in the future if their expensive ace can't figure out a way to pitch his way out of this recent trend.

It is hard to say he has been a complete disappointment, but his drop in velocity and the fact he is not as dominating as expected is worrisome. Pedro was more dominating in his first year as a Met at four years older. While Johan has basically been in line with his 2007 performance, I think we all expected more.

All Church, All The Time

I know the jury on the Milledge for Church/Schneider deal and this will be judged years down the line, but as of now, it is looking like Omar knew a little something. Yes, I know that I just posted about Church two days ago, but it is not easy to temper my excitement on the topic. Keith Law was asked in a chat if Milledge was just traded for a platoon player and a backup catcher and he agreed with that sentiment. Now, Church is looking like an All-Star and Milledge is barely holding onto his centerfield job.

Given the fact the Nationals are in last place with no hope of any meaningful baseball this year, he should take his lumps unless things get really, really, ugly. I guess his 68 OPS+ might mean things are already really, really ugly, but I think he should still be given a chance to catch fire.

As for Church, he just keeps on going and going and going and going. He leads the team in homers and batting average and is on pace to knock in well over 100 runs and score well over 100 runs. Toss in sparkling defense and you have a guy turning in a pretty tremendous season. I really thought he would be good for the Mets and he probably has a bit of cooling off to do, but he has far exceeded my expectations thus far.

As far as how much cooling off, he did have an OPS+ of 118, 131, and 114 over the past three seasons so it is quite possible he is can toss out a pretty impressive season and this is not a complete aberration. Just a slight aberration.

* * *

The Mets swept the -18 run differential Yankees and pushed them further down into last place. The Yankees are six games out of first place and looking pretty bad. Last year big time offense helped the Yankees overcome shitty pitching, but this year, the Yankees and their 10th place offense are not looking like they are up to the challenge. To further add to the hilarity of it all is that Johan, who they could have had if they just included Ian Kennedy, beat them in game one with a good performance.

Johan's eleven homers in nine games is a concern, but I think the Yankees would more than welcome his presence these days.

Manny rules.

By way of Rob Neyer...a book that every manager should read. That means you Willie.

Buster Olney has an interesting tidbit on on the Mets managerial situation.

An NL talent evaluator came up with an interesting name for the Mets, if they decide to change managers: Jim Fregosi. "He knows all about the bright-light and big-city stuff from his days in Philly and he would know how to handle New York, and he would be good with Jose Reyes," the evaluator said. "The veteran players would really like him. And his teams play hard."

Josh Hamilton is crazy good. He is leading the AL in homers and on pace for like 1,000,000 RBIs or something like that. He is obviously one of the most talented baseball players in the universe to be able to do what he is doing after his long road to the bigs. He has 37 career homers and could have easily logged over 100 if he was able to stay out of trouble. Scary to think how good he is going to become and how great he will end up despite losing so much time.

Not so much.

"They don't like me?" Randolph said. " 'We don't like Willie.' Wait a minute, why don't you like me? I don't get it. Did I do anything to you? If you look at what I've done for your club, you should like me a little bit."

You've done for the club? Wowee.

Randolph excluded Ozzie Guillen from the conversation, but wanted to know why the traits often admired in the calm, cool and collected likes of Joe Torre are portrayed as flaws in Torre's former third base coach.

"Is it racial?" Randolph asked. "Huh? It smells a little bit."

I can 100% say that my dislike of Willie as the manager of this team has nothing to do with race.

Jonah Keri thinks the Rays are for real while the Marlins are headed for a fall. That seems to be about right.

Oliver Perez was on point last night and continued to mow down lefties. His .094 BAA for lefties is just pure insanity.

I Am A Believer!

Ryan Church is sporting an OPS+ of 144 so far this season and has been the Mets best hitter so far. David Wright is right behind with an OPS+ 0f 139, but it is undeniable that Church has been rather spectacular so far being great at the plate and being extremely solid in right field.

If you add in fielding and go by WARP1, Church is sporting a 2.1 vs. Wright's 1.8. Now I am not saying that Church is a better player than David, but he certainly is a very good ballplayer and far from a platoon player. Against lefties he has a .328/.391/.546 line vs. a .324/.405/.514 line against righties.

It is also certainly worth noting that Milledge is sporting an OPS+ of 75. While I think Milledge is going to be a tremendous ballplayer down the line, I have been resolute in the fact that Chruch will be much more helpful in 2008 and 2009 in getting the Mets a championship.

As far as Omar's other big moves, they have worked out pretty well this season. Johan has been very good, though not great, and Brian Schneider has been very solid and is giving the Mets more offensive value than Lastings Milledge is giving the Nats. All of that has me perplexed as to why the Mets are simply a .500 team. Given the current team that was in place and the fact that Omar's moves worked out so well, you would think the Mets would be far better than they have been so far.

We are at the point when it is not longer early. Enough of a sample size has gone by that you can start drawing some conclusions. Tampa is better than anyone could have expected, the Yankees young pitching woes are probably going to cost them a playoff spot, the Marlins are shockingly legit, St. Louis is surprisingly good, and the Mets are far better than this.

Given they added positively to a team that barely missed the playoffs and they still find themselves in the same spot, something needs to get looked at. The common thread between the two needs to be identified and dealt with. The mediocrity is frustrating because this team should be anything but mediocre.

* * *

Schoenweis is pretty good.

Castillo is down again. So far his four year deal looks like a bad thing. I am stopping short of saying disaster because he is not making all that much in the big scheme of baseball, but it is clearly ugly.

Delgado batting seventh is a positive sign for Willie showing his cognitive reasoning skills. Delgado may be a nice guy, but he is a bad hitter these days.

While Ollie has not been horrible, he certainly has not bee all that great. The good part is becoming more affordable, but the bad part is he is not pitching as good as the Mets need him to.

If there is anything positive to take out of here it is that Pelfrey is willing to change things up a bit.

Over Exaggerated

Chris (Hoboken, NJ): Am I wrong for calling Ryan Church a platoon OF, and Brian Shcneider a backup catcher?

Keith Law: Correct on both counts.



I think calling Ryan Church a platoon player was a bit harsh. He ranked 16th overall in OPS out of every qualified outfielder in the National League. There were 26 overall that were qualified and he outhit Andruw Jones, Bill Hall, Mike Cameron, Chris Young, Austin Kearns, Shane Victorino, Brian, Giles, and Frenchy. Sure they are all not corner outfielders and others supply more than just hitting, but the guy was decent last year.

He was tied for 3rd in doubles despite have about 150 at-bats less than Holliday, Rowand, and Lee. Of course we are talking about guys that still hit 15 to 30 more XBHs with those extra at-bats, but he still hit an extra base hit once every 7.97 at-bats which beats out Lee's 8.25 and Rowand's 8.50. Holliday led the NL with on extra base hit every 6.91 at-bats, but I was shocked to see that Church was actually 7th overall and placed ahead of Carlos Beltran who just missed being in the 7's with an 8.03. For his career, he has hit an extra base hit once every 8.59 at-bat.

If you look at OPS+, it improves his standing a bit and he slides into 12th with 114, which is a touch behind Josh Willingham at 115 and behind Ken Griffy Jr. with 119. If you take a look at his WARP1 with the same cast of characters, he slides to 8th beating out Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Cameron, Shane Victorino, Jeff Franceour, Andruw Jones, Adam Dunn, Brad Hawpe, Pat Burrell, Carlos Lee, Brian Giles, Chris Young, Jason Bay, Bill Hall, and a few others.

This was a rather crude look and admittedly compares him against players who had a down year in 2007, but even when you factor that in and consider some people had fluky years in which they vastly played over their historical lines, Church does has value as a player that stretches beyond a platoon player. His '07 splits were not indicitive of his three year splits and he hits an acceptable .259 against lefties with an .742 OPS. Obviously there is room for improvement there, but hardly screams platoon player. Just as a reference point, Griffy hit .241 and .770 respectively against lefties over the same period of time. If you look at his '07 alone, he might seem like a platoon candidate and while I do not dismiss the fact he might be, I am willing to give him some more time before I come to that conclusion.

I do think Church could surprise a little bit in 2008 and Met fans will like him. However, people that were not fans of the trade that brought him here have to seperate the two things. Calling him a platoon player is selling him a bit short and bit unfair at this point. Just an aside, Milledge hit .246 and .703 against righties over 2006 and 2007 and while I will not deny his upside and who will be better in 2010, 2008 should have Church being the better of two.

As for Schneider, he was still more valuable than LoDuca last season and I suspect that will continue in '08. However, he is certainly not all that far off from being a backup, but isn't that why he is being paired with Ramon Castro? In terms of an improvement over '07, Castro/Schneider is one, however small. I do not believe we should use anything else to evaluate his inclusion on the team outside of last year as a barometer. We all agree that it was a bad trade and Milledge and Estrada might have been more optimal, but I cannot stress enough that they do improve the team in the short term.


* * *

Despite getting on my bad side, Law does gives F-Mart some love with some pretty impressive company being mentioned.

Todd, San Diego : Keith, Of these players, who has the highest ceiling- Jordan Schafer, Fernando Martinez, Colby Rasmus, Matt LaPorta?

Keith Law: (1:31 PM ET ) In order: Martinez, Rasmus, Schafer, LaPorta.

Rasmus is arguably one of the five best minor leaguers at this point and Schafer and LaPorta are pretty damn good as well.

It looks like Fernando is gone. I have no reason to believe he'll be around come opening day which sucks since he might be the best prospect being mentioned in any trade discussion the Twins are having. If F-Mart goes, Guerra has to stay.