Ukraine War Update: сумасшедшая Лягушка

Ukraine: And the Pain Plays on

The bitter-sweetness of victory?  That's the feeling at the moment.  There are a number of events underway which could ruin Ukraine, but may help instead.

Yanukovych has given what has to be one of the bizarrest interviews since Charlie Sheen. He stated he did ask for help from Putin with soldiers, but hopes to negotiate the return of Crimea. He calls his request an utter mistake. The man is a complete idiot.

The Right Sector handed over a fair amount of improvised weapons to the National Guard. However, they did state they would be rearming until the situation in Ukraine has improved.

Poroshenko - the chocolate king (but not of chicago!) - seems to be gaining steam running for president. I hope he's better than Yanukovich. There are supposed to be 38 (!) candidates including Darth Vader! (oy) No to Timoshenko!!!  I hope Yatsenyuk keeps the PM spot though.

Ukrainians keep catching Russians with car loads of weapons. Not sure what to make of this.

The Russians, despite some earlier reports, have not pulled back their troops. Not even a battalion.

NATO has stated Russian can overrun eastern and southern Ukraine in no more than 5 days.

Russia has upped the price of gas to Ukraine. They have stated they may increase the price further to recoup the discounts they gave earlier to Ukraine. jerks. In retaliation, the West has promised to help Ukraine with getting off its Russian gas addiction. Perhaps this will include LNG stations on the Black Sea. One could hope.

Russia has also issued warnings to Ukraine about moving closer to NATO. 

On the embarrassing side Lyudmila Putina dressed in Ukrainian colors.  ;)

Ukraine: Wither, Dither and Boom?

I retired that word, so you will not see me use it.

Aid to Ukraine.  The Euros promised $15 billion.  The US promised $1 billion. The IMF has not decided.  However, the World Bank has stated they will loan $3 billion for infrastructure in Ukraine this year.  That brings the total promised so far to $19 billion and the IMF may give as much as the Euros.  Unfortunately, there are two bits.  The first is that the US House and Senate are at loggerheads over IMF funding.  The Senate passed and attached some IMF reform to the Ukraine aid bill.  The House supports the aid, but not the reform.  This could cause problems.  I hope they realize how damned important this is right now and find a way through this fast.  The second bit, which is more amusing than bad, is Putin has stated it is illegal for the US or West to loan Ukraine money, specifically its against treaties.  *snork*

Ukraine is perilously close to going bankrupt.  They need financial aid immediately.

Obama says Ukraine has the full backing of the United States.  Prove it!  Get the House and Senate to move their rumps, Mr President.

From what it looks like the build up of Russian forces on the east and northeastern borders continues.

In Crimea, things remain dicey.  The Russians take over small posts.  The Marines and others are left alone.  The former is probably wise for the Russians. More troops continue to move into the Peninsula.  The Russians have shutdown the internet and all Ukrainian language tv channels.  They have also stopped all flights except to Moscow.

The anglophone russian apologists are starting to come round.  They are starting to say both sides are nuts rather than simply claim the West is the source of the problem and Kiev is evil.  Let me say there are NO ANGELS in this.  We have our problems.  The Russians have theirs.  yanukovich was a son of a biscuit though.  50% of a GDP over three years is astounding.  Doug once told a 'joke' about a dictator who took 100%.  Had Yanukovich not been ousted, Ukraine was headed that way.

 The Poles and Ukrainians have planned an air force exercise in May.  I hope this is on Ukrainian soil. The Poles keep reminding me of Stephen.  You can figure out the rest of what I mean.  Good for them, btw.

Yanukovich is not dead.  Oh the travesty of rumors which make us hope.  He's CEARLY delusional though.

The Crimean Tatars are all but saying "Over our dead bodies" that they will be Russian again.  I hope that won't happen.  In either interpretation of that.

Rumors are that TIMOSHENKO'S accounts are being unveiled.  I certainly hope so.  She's a snake.  I keep calling her Ann Coulter with a Ukrainian hairdo.  Her nastiness (and Yuschenko's) were why we are in this mess in the first place.  Its also why Yatsenyuk and Turchynov are handling this so much better: they learned from the idiocy of the Orange Revolution. 

Lots of people are saying there will be a civil war.  If anything it will be the mainland against the twits in Crimea.  

The funny bit for the day is the folks in Odessa.   They made a funny "Putin Go Home" Video.  Now they showed up at the Russian consulate and started draping pasta all over fence.  In Russian, apparently, 'hanging noodles on ears' means lying or you are in the act of lying.

At any rate, my bet is the endgame for Putin is another Frozen conflict.  He has a different way then to manipulate Ukraine and prevent it from getting into the EU and possibly NATO (though doubtful that last any time soon under ANY circumstances).  People smarter than I have concurred.  My only worry is he might pull the trigger and go for south and east Ukraine.

Ukraine: Soon to be a Tidal Wave?

Wow.  I really need to retire that word.

The Parliament of Crimea voted to petition Russia for annexation!  Gosh!  Such respect for Ukraine's borders!

The 'authorities' of Crimea then threatened the Ukrainian troops.  They have stated they will conduct a referendum as to whether or not the

In response the Ukrainians passed out the guns to their troops there.  The nonviolent tactics may be at an end.

There are rumors the Tatars are starting to form militias.  This will get ugly.  They are boycotting the referendum.

The Russians scuttled the Ochakovo to prevent Ukrainian navy ships from escaping their base.

Further rumor is that Yanukovich suffered a stroke.  He may be dead.  Obviously his usefulness was at an end.

 

OSCE has stated there seems to be no threat to the Russian speakers in Crimea.

Pavel Gubarev, a separatist leader in Donetsk, was arrested.

The United States House of Representatives has passed the $1 billion aid package for Ukraine's economy.  The Europeans have formally offered $15 billion.  The IMF is in discussions with Ukraine already. 

The EU Commision President has stated signing the association agreement with Ukraine is pending.

The first sanctions are in place.  Assets are being frozen.

Its pretty funny to see the Russophile blogosphere spin this crisis.  Big time.

Ukraine is not Yet Dead

Events continue to unfold and they ahve taken some good, but also frightening turns.

Good news first.

Yatsenyuk is pretty much going to be interim prime minister.  This goes along with the US preferences.

The US is ready with a billion dollars of aid to Ukraine if Ukraine works out a deal with the IMF.

The Berkut have been disbanded.

With a single exception, the Euromaidan revolution is accepted in every region (province).

Bad news.

The Russians are saber rattling: they are conducting military exercises just across the Ukrainian border with tens of thousands of troops.   General Shoigu is even there, running the show.  This has echoes of Georgia.

The Russians also have been stating the government is illegitimate and they will not do business with them.  This means the $ (or rubles) promised are not coming.  

Crimea is the single region which is not accepting the new central government.  They have brought out the Russian flag and have it over the parliament building in Simferopol.  A recent demonstration in support of Russia was met and overrun by a counter demonstration by the Crimean Tatars in support of Kyiv.  The city government of Sevastopol has pulled together the funding to keep their Berkut.

Minor bad news is Yanukovich is playing Where's Waldo.  Last seen in Crimea.  Not seen since.  A couple reports place him in Moscow.

The Ukrainians are pulling things together.  Its not easy, especially with the personalities and passions now involved.  However, the Russians are perched like a hawk, ready to swoop on their border.  If that were to happen, it would do so in the next month.  The longer the Russians wait, the more prepare the Ukrainians will be, not necessarily militarily, but might broker something with the West which would prevent the Russians from being overly adventurous...like a military exercise around Mariupol ought to do it.  Preferably French and British troops.  American might be too provocative and the French and Brits have nukes so as to counter that bully stick.

Ukraine!

This country really ought to be a musical.  A dark and scary one, but a musical all the same.  

Biggest news is that Yanukovich has been abandoned and on the run.  He was Kharkiv but that mayor went to Kiev.  Then he was Donetsk and tried to leave the country.  Flight permission was denied.  Last rumor was he was in Crimea.  He may be seeking refuge with the Russians in Sevastopol.

What will Crimea do?  That's a sticky question.  There have been a few calls for Russian protection.  Then again, that was in...Sevastopol.  The east has been willing to cooperate with Kiev at least for now.

I was right about the army though: Yanukovich did call them out.  I was wrong insomuch as even the Donetsk and other eastern troops refused.  That's beyond awesome.

What will Russia do is another big question.

What will Europe do is another.

What will the US do?

Finally, will the Euromaidan be able to work together?  or will we end up with another failed revolution like the Orange Revolution?

Ukraine Explodes

The deadline is here and Yanukovitch has made his move.   The revolution or crack down is currently developing.  There are numerous dead.

The police have advanced into the Maidan after clearing several barricades of protestors and surrounding the square.

Armored personnel carriers are now in play and that would indicate that the army has sided with the government.  These may be interior ministry troops instead.  If the government gets its act together there's no way for the protestors to resist the troops.

In the West, specifically Ivano-Frankovsk, Lviv and Ternopol, the protestors have overrun the government in retaliation and many, if not all of the interior troops have refused to attack the  protestors.

The Trade Union House was burning in the battle between the protestors and the Berkut police.

At least 20 are dead as of this writing.

Klitschko et al met with Yanukovich to 'negotiate' and he simply said the protestors must go home.  It appears Yanukovich was just playing for time to build up loyal troops to crush the protestors under the 'amnesty' law which was passed.

Turchynov, Yatsenyuk Signal Ready to Form Government if 2004 Constitution is Reinstituted

Foes of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych appear ready to move off the streets and into the halls of power. Two key opposition leaders, Oleksandr Turchynov and Arseniy Yatsenyuk, said today that they’re prepared to accept Yanukovych’s offer to form a new government, on condition that the constitution is amended to limit presidential power.

That would defuse the crisis that’s gripped Ukraine since November, when Yanukovych spurned a trade agreement with Europe in favor of a Russian aid package. But it’s now clear that an opposition-led government won’t get much financial help from the West unless it agrees to a painful economic overhaul.

link.

Ukraine: Deadlines! Deadlines! Deadlines!

We know you are peaceful protesters & we support you - EU

No risk map and I won't mention it again going forward.

Berkut and protestor clashes.  One very serious against students.

The deadline for the amnesty law - where all the protestors must vacate government buildings - is virtually upon us.  The protestors have no intention of giving in.  They are digging in and fortifying even more.

They have issued a deadline of their own: all the protestors must be set free by Monday @ 3 pm.  If not, their 'defense forces' will march.

The prosectors claim all have been set free.  Euromaidan disputes this.

There is growing frustration with the EU.

Supposedly, Yanukovich & Klitschko are supposed to debate. 

Ukraine: Beginning of the Explosion?

The above was posted to youtube.  Its a conversation between US diplomats about the negotiations and US involvement with the opposition leaders.  The US seems to be playing a very big role.  We'll see how well that goes after Klitschko et al hear.  This bugging was probably done by the Russians.  

The Russians have started getting even more belligerent.  They are threatening military intervention. Their pretext is the "Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances" from 1994.  Their argument is that the Memorandum states Russia and America are the guarantee-rs of Ukraine's sovereignty.  If its threatened, Russia argues, then they have the right to intervene.  The Euromaidan is threatening Ukraine in that sense, they continue.  Flipside of that argument is that the USA has the right to intervene as well. 

They have also called Ukraine a 'failed state' and started getting nasty to both Euromaidan and Yanukovich.

There was an explosion in the Union Building is being called a bombing.  Two young men were hurt.  Supposedly explosives were also planted at Ukrainian House.

Yanukovich has gone to Sochi where he is expected to meet with Putin.  He also announced that the only way to deal with the Euromaidan is through compromise, not force. 

Ukraine is threatening to be late in its payments to Gasprom.  Not good that.

A fire broke out in a building near the barricades in Kyiv.  It was extinguished.  Both sides blamed the other.

 Finally, there are supposed to be multiple Constitutional bills being drafted to be considered next week.  There are claims though this won't happen until September.  The EU seems to be involved with this. 

Ukraine: Perhaps the Longer Lull

Not much further progress seems to have taken place.  There are tidbits here and there, but not massive movement either way.  Note: the Risk map seems to have disappeared from being updated.  Either we have stalemated or the Euromaidan is being forced back.

Yanukovich is supposed to be back on the job after his sick leave.  His timing seems to be about when the European delegation was in Kyiv.  Interesting that.  Equally so is a report that Yanukovich is stating he will not use force but woudl rather call early elections instead.

The Russians have gotten more belligerent.    They are low keying it, almost certainly because of Sochi.  However, they have delayed the next payment for the brokered deal.  They have also called on the West, repeatedly, to stop interfering with Ukraine.  Finally, there are reports of some of the Russian special forces being in Ukraine.

A delegation from the EU visited Ukraine.  Not sure what really came of it.

The Europeans and US are looking to move in and take over payments instead.  It'd be a good move.  Let's see if they can talk themselves out of it again.

There is an interesting article about the Titushki.

My personal bet is there is a countdown underway.  Unless Euromaidan can push Yanukovich off his seat in the next week and a half, he'll have the pretext to crush Euromaidan because of the amnesty law. We'll see.  Yanukovich might be crumbling, too.

Ukraine: The Breath Before the Plunge?

First off, the daily risk map from Euromaidan has not been put out.  I am not sure what to think of it.  Either nothing has changed since the last one.  Or they have had setbacks which they do not wish to publicize.  Either way, no banner for today's post.

On the whole things seem relatively quiet.  Hence, the name of the post.  In some ways, I hope it stays quiet.  Otherwise this might get to be damned scary fast.

What Putin and Medvedev did have taken a different turn.  Their threats have been portrayed attempts at bullying.  Possibly.  Today's auction of bonds went tumbling though.

The talks between the government and the opposition seem to have stalled.  The government doesn't seem to want to give more concessions.  The opposition is demanding more.  There is no progress and no compromise.  

Yanukovich, related to the previous compromise has not signed the repeal of the anti protestor law, despite its passage by the Rada.  That's a bit odd.  

What's even more odd is that he has taken sick leave now.  Its made everyone guessing as to what's going on.  He may be really sick.  He may be in the process of stepping down (dreams of the Euromaidan).  He may be stepping away to buy time for his side to organize things better.  Or he may be stepping out of the way for the iron fist to be swung while he's out of town (Euromaidan's nightmare).  Timing aside, Yanukovich is not a young man and given my own magic ability to get sick when I am exhausted, I can see him falling victim to something nasty at this time.

Otherwise, relatively quiet.  We'll see what's coming tomorrow.

Putin Speaks out on Ukraine

The EU and Russia agreed Tuesday to discuss their sharp differences over Ukraine and eastern Europe as President Vladimir Putin again warned against foreign meddling in former Soviet states.

Putin went into a summit with European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission head Jose Manuel Barroso billed as a "clear the air session" only for both sides to come out stressing the positives.

Apparently aiming to calm the waters in Ukraine, Putin also promised not to review crucial aid worth $15 billion (11 billion euros) even if the opposition, hostile to closer ties with Russia, takes power there.

"In direct answer to your question as to whether we will review our agreements on loans and energy if the opposition comes to power -- no we will not," Putin told a press conference after the talks.

"This is not important to us," Putin said, noting that Moscow had had "a very constructive dialogue" with Ukraine when it was led by now-jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko.

At the same time, "we want to be sure that this money comes back," the president added.

link.

(so did Putin just hang Yanukovich out in the wind???)

and

Russian President Vladimir Putin criticized the European Union on Tuesday for sending high-level delegations to Ukraine during its anti-government protests, saying that could be interpreted as political interference.

Speaking at the conclusion of an EU-Russia summit in Brussels, he said: "I can imagine the reaction of our European partners if, in the midst of a crisis in Greece or any other country, our foreign minister would come to an anti-European rally and would urge people to do something."

"The more intermediaries there are, the more problems there are," said Putin. "Considering the specifics of relations between Russia and Ukraine, it is simply unacceptable."

The EU has sent a procession of senior officials, including Catherine Ashton, the European Union's foreign policy chief, to meet with government and opposition leaders in Ukraine, a former Soviet republic. Ashton had been scheduled to visit Kiev again later this week, but she decided to fly to Ukraine on Tuesday.

Putin said the EU has been too soft on Ukraine's opposition, claiming some of its members have used racist and xenophobic arguments to win popular support.

link.

Update on Ukraine's Euromaidan Revolution

Green is where the government of the region is either aligned with or taken over by the Euromaidan protestors.  The Yellow is where the government offices are under siege.  Grey is where little to no action is taking place.

Yanukovich offered to compromise.

The protestors rejected it.

Members of Putin's government have stated Russia will not intervene, but Putin himself has not commented.

A policeman has been reported shot and killed in another district than where the Maidan is.

TV news people are quitting.  They have stated they cannot stand and state nothing is happening on the news when that's patently not true.

So far, the police have been the only ones opposing the EuroMaidan and the 'Berkut' (Eagles) which are paramilitary forces for the interior ministry.  The army has stood aside.  So long as they do so, the Euromaidan stands a chance.

Ukraine may be Having a Revolution

This is from the Euromaidan twitter feed.  The picture is entitled: regions in alliance with the opposition.  They had an earlier picture like this which stated the red were places the government offices had been taken over by the opposition and the light red was where the offices were under seige by the opposition.  There are bits which are coming out of the feeds which seem to be accurate: you can even watch the confrontations.  However, there seems to be a lot of ... overstatement and perhaps even propaganda: if snipers were working the crowd, then, um, I'd expect a lot more dead and the battle on Grushevskogo in Kyiv seemed to have a single watercannon being used last night when I was watching.  Perhaps the gov embezzled all the funds for it?

As of right now, Klitschko et al are requesting the cease fire be continued.  Yanukovich isn't giving any ground.

However, if the opposition, or at least protestors, are taking over the government buildings in the regions, its almost assured that Yanukovich will have to react.  Most likely he'll react with an iron first.  The question then is whether or not this will be like when Yeltsin climbed on the tank during the hardliner coup in the Soviet Union?  Or will it be like Tienanmen Square?  If Crimea, Odessa or Donetsk were to fall to the protestors, then I'd say Yanukovich is just plain toast.  If not, he has a base of support.

Drawing a parallel with Yeltsin's stunt brings to mind an unlikely, but possible outcome: the Soviet Union dissolved then.  Might we see East and South Ukraine divorce the West?  

So, is Ukraine in the process of a revolution?  An Euromaidan Revolution?

Here's also an interesting take from the Business Insider.

Yanukovich's Options are Narrowing

At one end of Kiev's protest zone, just inside a makeshift barricade, protesters have set up a mock jail with an effigy of President Viktor Yanukovich sitting in a striped convict's tunic, his arms raised above him in manacles.

In the past few weeks as anti-government protests have grown in intensity, it has become a common spot for a Sunday outing. Parents send their children to pose for family album snapshots alongside the jail bird.

That Yanukovich could be brought down by the present spasm of street violence and face prosecution for his "crimes" in office might be wishful thinking by his most ardent opponents.

Despite two months of unrest after pulling out of a trade deal with the European Union and moving closer to Russia, there is nothing to suggest that the 63-year-old former construction worker is in danger of falling from power.

But Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday sounded a note of alarm when he admonished European governments for "interfering" in Ukraine's political crisis, a regular complaint of Moscow.

"The situation is spinning out of control," he said.

Yanukovich appears to be still in charge of the security forces who are still holding back from an all-out offensive against protesters. There have been no public defections from his camp and the super-wealthy "oligarchs" who bankroll him have not broken ranks.

But nonetheless his options are narrowing as street violence against his rule grows more intense following policy blunders - the latest being the passage of sweeping legislation that bans virtually any form of anti-government protest.

In the worst violence that anyone can remember in Kiev, radical protesters have been battling police day and night near the main government building, lobbing cobblestones, fireworks and sometimes petrol bombs, undeterred by the stun grenades and rubber bullets fired back at them.

Though a line of three priests kept the two sides apart on Tuesday in a temporary truce, it seemed only a question of time before violence resumed again.

With Ukraine in unchartered territory now, Yanukovich is running out of options to reclaim control of the streets peacefully, having turned his back on compromise and used the promise of talks with the opposition only to play for time, analysts say.

He might even declare a state of emergency backed by a curfew, some say.

link.

Euromaidan has Pittered out

Tacitly acknowledging that street protests would not topple Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich, one of his leading rivals told demonstrators on Sunday that the opposition would steer the country back towards Europe after winning the next election in 2015.

Tens of thousands of people gathered on Kiev's Independence Square for what has become a weekly event since late November, when Yanukovich's government refused to sign an association agreement with the European Union and turned instead to Russia for an economic rescue package.

The turnout was visibly lower than last week, when it was estimated at about 100,000, as many Ukrainians were busy preparing for the New Year holidays and the Ukrainian Orthdox Christmas, which is celebrated on January 7.

The falling numbers have eased the pressure on the government, which is pressing ahead with forging closer ties with Russia, having secured a $15 billion bailout package from Moscow and a discount on vital Russian gas supplies.

The opposition wants the country of 46 million people to move closer to Europe and escape the grip of Russia, its former imperial master.

"We are preparing to win the presidential elections," said Arseny Yatsenyuk, the leader of the opposition Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) party. "We are building a team... that will be able to turn Ukraine into a European country."

link.

The Ukrainian Struggle, Euromaidan Pull out the Big Guns...Washington Lobbyists

Rival political factions facing each other on the streets of Ukraine have also enlisted heavyweight lobbyists in Washington, some with connections at the highest levels of U.S. government, to promote their causes to American policymakers, media and members of Congress.

Among the high-profile lobbyists registered to represent organizations backing Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich's government are prominent Democratic lobbyist Anthony Podesta and former Republican congressional leaders Vin Weber and Billy Tauzin.

Meanwhile, Yanukovich's most prominent political rival, Yulia Tymoshenko, the former prime minister who is serving a seven-year prison term for alleged abuse of power, is represented in Washington by former Democratic Congressman Jim Slattery, a partner in the law firm Wiley Rein LLP.

The sums of money involved are substantial. Over the last two years, the European Centre for a Modern Ukraine, a Brussels-based organization sympathetic to Yanukovich and his political party, has paid $560,000 to Weber's firm, Mercury, and another $900,000 to Podesta Group Inc, for a total outlay of $1.46 million, according to a U.S. Senate database.

The database shows total payments over the same two years of $810,000 to Wiley Rein by Oleksandr Tymoshenko, a Ukrainian businessman and husband of Yulia.

"A lot of people are making a lot of money off Ukraine's political competition," said Bruce Jackson, president of the Project on Transitional Democracies, which advocates Western-oriented reforms in Eastern Europe.

"The Yulia-Yanukovich competition has definitely spilled out of the country. Both sides are heavily invested in representation in Washington," Jackson said. He said he and his group do not lobby.

link.

What if Yanukovich Held a Meeting and Then Didn't Listen?

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich made few concessions on Friday in crisis talks with the opposition, his first direct attempt to defuse weeks of unrest over a policy swerve to Russia away from Europe.

The meeting came as protesters streamed into the capital from mainly western regions for a mass rally on Sunday, boosting thousands already camped out on Kiev's Independence Square, focal point of recent demonstrations.

Russia, in the meantime, pointedly demanded that the European Union keep out of Ukrainian affairs.

Yanukovich, yielding to calls from the international community, began round-table talks with the opposition to try to find a way out of the conflict which has put Ukraine at the center of an East-West tug-of-war.

But with the opposition insisting on core demands such as the dismissal of his government, the talks seemed unlikely to head off another outpouring of anger against him on Sunday.

"This round-table was simply a declaration and not a single step was made to meet the opposition. I have the impression that the authorities today did not listen to a single one of the demands of the opposition," said boxing champion-turned-opposition politician Vitaly Klitschko.

Despite talks in Brussels by his government aimed at securing financial aid from the EU for his near-bankrupt country, Yanukovich still appeared on course to go to Moscow on December 17 to tie up a trade agreement which the opposition fears could slam the door on integration with Europe.

link.

Are the Ukrainian Oligarchs Abandonin Yanukovich?

In the battle for Ukraine’s future, oligarchs are turning away from the government.

A newspaper owned by Billionaire Viktor Pinchuk gave journalists a makeshift office to cover protesters trying to topple President Viktor Yanukovych. Petro Poroshenko, Yanukovych’s ex-economy minister and the head of Ukraine’s largest chocolate maker, sided with demonstrators in a speech at Kiev’s Independence Square. Tycoon Dmitry Firtash’s TV station Inter aired footage countering government claims that protesters incited violence that has left hundreds hurt.

Yanukovych, who’s stood against hundreds of thousands of angry voters after snubbing a European Union free-trade deal in favor of Russia, is now seeing support from the nation’s richest executives slipping away. After boosting their fortunes and supporting Yanukovych’s tenure, oligarchs now face credit-ratings downgrades and the loss of lucrative Western markets, where 19 Ukrainian companies, including Mironovskiy Hleboproduct SA, the largest poultry producer, are traded.

“Yanukovych is in office because the oligarchs wanted him there,” Jan Techau, the director of the Brussels office of the Carnegie Endowment, said in a phone interview today. “If they abandon him, he’s toast.”

link.