Showing posts with label UK election 2010. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UK election 2010. Show all posts

Monday, July 12, 2010

Peter Mandelson: Clegg told Brown he would have to go.

Nick Clegg told Gordon Brown that he would have to stand aside if there were to be any hope of a coalition with the Liberal Democrats and wanted a change to the way MP's were elected without any consulting of the electorate, according to a new book by Peter Mandelson.

Both claims about the Lib-Lab talks have been made before, but it is the first time the assertions, likely to put Clegg in a questionable light, have been backed by detail. In his memoir serialised in today's Times newspaper, Mandelson claims that Clegg said to Brown directly at a secret meeting: "Please understand, I have no personal animosity whatsoever. But it is not possible to secure the legitimacy of a coalition and win a referendum unless you move on in a dignified way."

It is possible the Liberal Democrats were at this point seeking to maximise their negotiating position with both Labour and the Conservatives, and indeed were putting demands in the hope they would be impossible for Brown to accept. Brown did end by offering to step aside as prime minister, but was unable to get an agreement to form a coalition.

It never struck me as if Clegg was remotely serious about forming a coalition with Labour, so perhaps he was saying this knowing that it would be unlikely that Brown would accept it, but it is nevertheless outrageous that Clegg should have demanded that he gets to state whether or not the elected leader of the Labour Party is acceptable to him.

It is alleged that late in the negotiations Clegg changed his position, and told Brown to remain in office since he secretly wanted Brown in Number 10 to increase his negotiating hand with the Conservatives.

Brown's s team have claimed after collapse of the talks that they felt they were being used by Clegg, and he was pressing Brown to cling on so he could have time to finalise his deal with the Conservatives and sell it to his party.

Brown lost patience, and told Clegg he could not wait any longer before going to see the Queen to resign. One reason was Mandelson did not want him to leave No 10 at night. It meant Clegg was in a coalition before his party had signed a final deal, and Cameron arrived in Downing Street more in the twilight.

"I was fearful that if the denouement was delayed much longer, Gordon would have to leave Downing Street after dark. That was not the image I wanted for his leave-taking."

Mandelson's report certainly fits in with the feeling that I had at the time. Clegg never struck me as being remotely serious about a deal with Labour, even though most of us feel that this would have been a much more natural alliance.

I think Clegg always wanted a deal with the Conservatives. Which is an odd thing for any liberal to want.

Click here for full article.

Friday, May 14, 2010

Johann Hari: This is not what the people voted for.

When nutcases like Adam Boulton express their bias and insist that David Cameron won this election, Johann Hari has a very good point to counter their claims:

David Cameron went into this election with every conceivable advantage – a half-mad Labour leader randomly insulting his core vote; a comically biased media; a massive financial advantage over his rivals, flowing from a tax haven in Belize; 13 years out of power; a major recession – and yet he got only 36 per cent of the electorate to endorse his vision. To be fair, let's assume the 3 per cent who voted Ukip also broadly prefer it, and call it 39 per cent. Against this, 55 per cent of us voted for parties of the (relative) centre-left – the same proportion who say they want a country that is less unequal and less unfair. In any other European country, where they have democratic voting systems, it wouldn't even have been close. This would have been a centre-left landslide, with Cameron humiliated.
Of course this is the very reason that people like Andrew Sullivan argue against the PR system; because, by Sullivan's own admission, if we had PR the Tories would very rarely win elections in this country.

The Tories only ever win elections in this country because both the progressive parties split their own vote.

Which is why Clegg choosing to side with the Tories after the election baffled me so much.
Don't fall for the people who say the Lib Dem vote was "ambiguous": a YouGov poll just before the election found that Lib Dem voters identified as "left-wing" over "right-wing" by a ratio of 4:1. Only 9 per cent sided with the right. Lib Dem voters wanted to stop Cameron, not install him. So before you start squabbling about the extremely difficult parliamentary arithmetic, or blaming the stupidly tribal Labour negotiators for their talks with the Lib Dems breaking down, you have to concede: the British people have not got what they voted for.
Many people voted Lib Dem to keep the Tories out of power. And yet, they now watch Clegg get into bed with the very party they wanted to stop from reaching Number Ten.

There are many thing which can be said about this, but you can't say that the people of Britain got what they wanted.

Clegg took his party, and all the votes cast for it, and aligned it to the very thing that the majority of the people who voted for him were vehemently opposed to.

The right wing press are, inevitably, applauding him. But the people who voted for him know what he did. I doubt they will ever vote for him again.

Click here for Hari's column.

Brown to remain as backbench MP.

Gordon Brown has vowed to continue as the MP for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath.

"I wanted to be clear, I want to be doing what is my first love in politics and that is to serve the people of Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath and all the communities in this area, and to continue to do that with your support over the next few years.

"In case anybody was in any doubt because of the announcements that were made this week, I am wanting to do everything I can to work for people here, for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, as your Member of Parliament, and I will do that to the best of my ability for these next few months and years."

His remarks were greeted with applause by about 200 students and staff who had gathered to listen to him.

It must be so hard for someone who has worked in politics their entire life to even realise that there is a world beyond that chamber. It's an honourable sentiment, but I feel quite sure that sitting on the backbenches, especially having once tasted the power of Number Ten, will not satisfy Gordon for very long.

He hinted during the campaign that he might be tempted to work in the field of charity, and I am sure it won't be too long before someone takes him up on that offer.

One thing is certain, Brown is not destined to spend the rest of his life sitting on the backbenches of the Commons watching Cameron doing his job.

Click here for full article.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Boulton Shows His Bias.



I can't believe I missed this the other night, but then I was glued to the BBC. But watch Adam Boulton go ballistic at the thought that David Cameron might not get into Number Ten.

I have had my difficulties with Alastair Campbell but there is not a single thing he says here which is not constitutionally correct.

But Boulton gives away his colours loud and clear, even resorting in the end to stating, "I actually care about this country", clearly implying that anyone who wanted Brown in office didn't.

It's all so Glenn Beck....

UPDATE:

It appears that I was the only person who missed this:

Media regulator Ofcom has received almost 1,500 complaints about Adam Boulton's on-screen clash with Alastair Campbell and Kay Burley's interview with electoral reformist David Babbs.

[...]

Ofcom has also received 696 complaints about
Sky News political editor Adam Boulton's on-screen row with former Labour spin doctor Alastair Campbell. Most of the complainants are understood to have objected to what they viewed as unprofessional behaviour by Boulton, who appeared to lose his temper after Campbell accused him of being "upset that David Cameron is not prime minister".

Ofcom is still assessing 700 complaints that Boulton allegedly
"heckled" Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg about his expenses in the second leaders' debate.

Rupert is obviously trying to turn Sky News into Fox. The complaints it's generated show that he won't get away with this quite so easily here.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Now Cameron Must Show Us What Liberal Conservatism Actually Means.

Simon Heffer sees only disaster ahead for the Liberal Democrats:

The price, however, of any support, formal or otherwise, for the Conservatives will be that the Lib Dems will be widely obliterated when next at the polls. Their Leftists would never forgive them. Labour and the Greens would be the only beneficiaries. And electoral reform? We should believe that when we see it.
I have always said that I have no idea how such a coalition might work. It now transpires that Clegg is more right leaning than I had previously assumed so, perhaps, for him this makes sense.

But the majority of that party has always leaned towards the left of the political spectrum and I can't imagine that they will be left feeling good about how this has played out.

Nor can I imagine how the Tory right will find life with such strange bedfellows.
The deal between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems must pass through the triple lock procedure of the latter party. But the scope for dissent that could bring down a coalition is unlimited. I do not just mean that of Leftist Liberals dissatisfied with progress towards proportional representation, or shocked by the Euroscepticism of their partners, making trouble; I also mean that of the Right of the Tory party, many of whom would, in these circumstances, have much preferred a minority government. And, as the ugly decisions are taken, they will not necessarily bring applause and favour to the party or parties responsible for them.
Heffer thinks that there will be an election within a year and that, within that time, no electoral reform will have been tabled because of the fact that the Tory-Lib-Dem pact will have to concentrate on the economy.

His implication is that Cameron will never allow a vote on electoral reform but will use this time in office to destroy one of his rivals whilst preparing to have a second election in which he imagines his party might do better.

One cannot predict the future, but only have suppositions about it. Here, for what they are worth, are mine. The Lib Dems may have had to endorse such a pact or coalition, but will not like what it might mean in practice. Their activists may either depart or stay where they are, and start to rebel. They will sense the difficulty of fighting an election after a stormy love affair with the Tory party and will react accordingly. In the Tory party, there will be increasingly vocal objections to constitutional reform, not because reactionary figures would raise them for their own sake, but because of genuine fears about the implications for the smooth governance of Britain.

In the Labour Party, they will have one consideration above all others: and that is the length of time they spend in opposition. A Labour MP said to me yesterday: "When I hear colleagues say we could do with a short, refreshing spell in opposition, I say two things to them: 1951 and 1979." The first short, refreshing spell was 13 years; the second 18. Labour will seek to find an attractive new leader, to unite vocally and energetically around him, and to prepare a programme for a new manifesto for an election that could come sooner rather than later.

For, in that election, Labour would expect to do better than it did last week.
In any future election, Labour will do better than they did last week, as the chances are that they will no longer face the split in the progressive vote which the Liberal Democrats always brought about.

I am one of those Labour supporters who think that we need time to regroup, elect a new leader and come back refreshed. And, whilst I understand the arguments about 1951 and 1979, I disagree with them.

Labour was considered toxic back then, which was proven by the fact that no Labour government was ever re-elected. Tony Blair changed all that, and as someone who oft times criticised him, I should give credit where it is due.

Blair removed that image of Labour forever from the public mind; and they rewarded him by re-electing him three times. He really did change the way the public felt about the issue of fairness and it will be very hard to undo the work he did.

It is now the Tories who are considered toxic and Cameron's job now is to prove to the public, as Blair did for them regarding the Labour Party, that our image of that party is all wrong.

He can talk the talk of liberal Conservatism, now he must show that he can walk the walk. Being aligned to the Liberals might just keep him from swaying too far to the right, but the right wing of the Tory Party are going to battle him every inch of the way.

And that could get bloody.

UPDATE:

Here are a handful of comments from this Liberal Democrat blog which highlight how this is going down with many who voted for them.
  • Posted 11th May 2010 at 10:02 pm | Permalink

    Though not as willing as you were, clearly. I voted Liberal Democrat in the last three elections because I was disillusioned with Labour but could never contemplate a return to Tory government. I know lots of people who did the same. Needless to say, I won’t be making that mistake again. Neither will they.

  • Andrew
    Posted 11th May 2010 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

    Voted Lib Dem. Got Tory. Won’t make that mistake again.

  • NorthernMonkey
    Posted 11th May 2010 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    Get real.

    The Liberal Democrats had a choice. They could have joined a progressive coalition or they could have joined with the Tories.

    And they got in bed with the Tories. Not just supporting a Tory minority government, but a FULL coalition! You’ll pay the price for this at the next election.

  • Posted 11th May 2010 at 10:12 pm | Permalink

    I love how we’ve just assured ourselves total electoral annihilation and yet people are *still* trying to suggest we’ve sold out for an easy life.

  • IainM
    Posted 11th May 2010 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

    Spin it how you like. The Lib Dems are going to get slaughtered at the next election and you will totally deserve it.

  • Bluelammy
    Posted 11th May 2010 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

    I voted for the first time on wednesday, voting for the Ld. If this coalition with the tories doesn`t work out we all know who will get the blame,and suffer most and it wont be the tories.I did not vote for a torie goverment.

As I suspected, this is going down like a cup of cold sick.

Click here for Heffer's article.

Clegg Was "Going Through The Motions" With Labour.

It is being reported this morning that Nick Clegg was merely going through the motions when he started negotiations with the Labour Party.

Apparently, he was doing so in order to appease his backbenchers who had insisted that he open negotiations with them before they would endorse his deal with the Conservatives.

Insiders say it was the Liberal Democrats, not the Labour Party, who were going through the motions. Earlier, Nick Clegg had had a decidedly mixed response when he presented an outline deal to Liberal Democrat MPs; several wanted to let their heart rule their head and do a deal with Labour.

It seems that Mr Clegg needed to reassure these pro-Labour MPs that an agreement with Labour had been explored and exhausted, before they would swallow a coalition with David Cameron.

Labour sources are insisting that, whilst there were a number of Labour MP's insisting that Labour should accept that they had been defeated, the numbers were never really a problem, the problem was that Nick wanted a deal with the Tories.

They are convinced that the make-up of Mr Clegg's negotiating team was a revealing sign of his true intentions all along – to do a deal with the Tories.

The prime mover David Laws was (like Mr Clegg) a member of the "Orange Book" brigade who favoured market-based reforms of public services and had been wooed by the Tories as a possible defector. Danny Alexander, Mr Clegg's chief of staff, and Andrew Stunell, the party's former chief whip, did their leader's bidding, in the eyes of the Labour team, while Chris Huhne, who might have been more sympathetic to a deal with Labour, played a low-key role.

Conspicuous by his absence was Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrats' deputy leader and once an adviser to John Smith, the former Labour leader. He has had a remarkably low media profile in recent days.

When the talks with Labour were still alive, he was due at the Treasury at 11am yesterday for a meeting with the Chancellor Alistair Darling but the plug was apparently pulled on Mr Clegg's orders.

Clegg's views on matters like public services have always been viewed by some Liberal Democrats as leaning towards the Tories rather than towards Labour, and his actions since the election have certainly bore that out.
But by suggesting a greater role for private firms in the public services, the so-called "orange bookers" sparked an internal row with those in the party advocating what many saw as a more left-wing agenda.

That group, led by the likes of party president Simon Hughes, suggested their opponents were going down a Conservative path at a time when the party needed to attract disillusioned Labour voters.
Clegg has placed the Liberal Democrats in severe danger. The message, "Vote Liberal Democrat, get a Conservative government" is now undeniable. And he has certainly killed off forever the notion that anyone would vote for his party in order to keep the Tories out, which has been happening for years in seats where the Labour presence was small.

Labour will, in any future election, target the 6.8 million people who voted for Clegg, saying that they are the only progressive party in Britain. And, watching Clegg courting the Tories, whilst merely going through the motions with Labour, will certainly live long in the memory.

As I have said a thousand times, I know of no-one who voted Liberal Democrat hoping to get this result. And yet, this appears to have been Clegg's preferred choice all along.

I really hope Clegg can manage to hold the Tory party back from their worst excesses, but the fact that he has agreed to the £6 billion in spending cuts going through this year, despite the fact that he campaigned against them, is hardly a great first sign.

And that's the problem for Clegg, his fingerprints - and those of his party - will now be found on every slash in public services the Tories make. And, if the Tories are anywhere near as brutal as past Conservative governments have proven to be, Clegg could be in the process of destroying his party forever.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

David Cameron Becomes British Prime Minister.



Hopefully, by tomorrow all of this will make more sense.

As I drove into town this morning, knowing that only last night Clegg had asked Brown if he could formally open negotiations with the Labour party, on the radio certain Blairite MP's were loudly stating that Labour should not do a deal with the Lib Dems.

By the time I was driving home, having been deprived of news sources because of meetings all day, the deal with Labour was in tatters and Cameron we were told was getting ready to head off to Buckingham Palace. Mandelson insists that Labour wanted the deal:

However Labour's Lord Mandelson told the BBC they had been "up for" a deal with the Lib Dems, but they had "created so many barriers and obstacles that perhaps they thought their interests lay on the Tory side, on the Conservative side, rather than the progressive side".

After it became clear the talks had failed, Mr Brown tendered his resignation and said he wished the next prime minister well.

In an emotional resignation statement outside Number Ten, Mr Brown thanked his staff, his wife Sarah and their children, who joined the couple as they left for Buckingham Palace.

None of us know what has gone on here or what has happened. The BBC have just reported that the deal between the two sides will have to be approved by both of their parties respectively, but shouldn't that approval have been given before Cameron and Brown both headed off to the palace?

What has happened to proportional representation? Has Clegg been given this by the Conservatives? They are saying Labour wouldn't do a deal, but the deal for a referendum on proportional representation was already on Labour's table, so the messages coming out at this point are simply confusing.

And what deal the Tories have come to with the Lib Dems appeared to be unknown even to Simon Hughes if what he has just been saying on the BBC News is to be believed. He is saying that he has no idea what the deal consists of.

The facts as we know them are as follows.

Brown left office with great dignity, and Cameron entered speaking fluently without notes.

Although, at times like this, I always remember that Margaret Thatcher quoted a prayer from Saint Francis of Assisi when she entered office:
‘Where there is discord, may we bring harmony. Where there is error, may we bring truth. Where there is doubt, may we bring faith. And where there is despair, may we bring hope’.
No leader of the British Isles ever brought more discord and despair than Thatcher did, so I take the words stated on the steps of Number Ten when a new leader enters office with a huge pinch of salt.

Hopefully, over the next few days we will find out just what exactly has occurred here. But both Mandelson and Ed Balls gave off the feeling that they were slightly relieved when they appeared on the BBC News tonight, although it's possible that I am reading too much into that.

As to whether or not Clegg baulked when the moment came to deliver PR for his party, there is simply too little known at this moment to comment.

What I do know is that Cameron is now PM and that, hopefully, Clegg will be able to hold back the worst of his excesses.

The story of what occurred behind the scenes is so far completely unknown.

But I feel sure that, over the next few days, we will all be talking about very little else as the story of these manoeuvrings finally creeps out.

So far, even their own MP's are apparently still unaware of the deal, so what chance do the rest of us have?

But I, as a Labour supporter, feel no disappointment tonight. I would have thought Clegg would find Labour a more natural ally than the Tories, but he has now aligned himself with the other side.

It's far too early to comment on whether he should or shouldn't have done what he has done, as we don't yet know all the details. But Clegg has, for better or for worse, aligned his future with David Cameron's.

If he can hold back the worst of the economic savagery which Cameron's government has discreetly promised, I will applaud him.

But the problem I have with all of this is that I simply know of no-one who voted Liberal Democrat hoping to get David Cameron. Over the next few days we should begin to find out why Clegg has gone against the political DNA of his own party. I will try, at this point, to remain fair; he may yet have his reasons...

But they better be good.

Pound slides on Labour coalition talks with Lib Dems.

That headline says everything that needs to be said about how desperate the right wing press are becoming now that the chances of Cameron becoming Prime Minister appear to be declining.

But note this:

Sterling dropped by more than a cent against the dollar, while the euro gained a penny against the pound, after Gordon Brown's unexpected announcement that he will manage negotiations with the Lib Dems before standing aside as Labour leader.
Sterling dropped by A CENT against the dollar. A CENT! And the Euro has gained a whole penny!

And yet we are told that this amounts to "the pound sliding". And they also conclude that this is because of Brown's announcement rather than the fact that Britain currently has a hung parliament.

They really are scraping the bottom of the barrel now.

Click here for full article.

A Death Blow To The Tory Party?

I always find Andrew Sullivan interesting. He's a right winger with enough good sense to reject George W. Bush, so I was always going to find time for him.

Recently though, as he covered the British election, I found myself wondering how long he had been in the States, as his reading of British Conservatives was so very far from my own.

Today, he appears to be grasping what is actually taking place here.

One feels the stomach lurch a little if one remains a British conservative. From the heady days of the 1980s and even 1990s - eighteen years of continuous Tory rule - we have now had thirteen years of Labour, three elections in which the ghost of Thatcherism was revived with ever decreasing effect, then a major rebranding and personable, decent new leader with sane, centrist policies ... the end result is 36 percent. And that barely more than a third of the vote - and no seats in Scotland - comes after one of the worst recessions in memory, and one of the least agreeable prime ministers in modern times.

Or to put it another way: 63 percent of Britons did not want a Tory government after 13 years of Labour.
And he appears to have, finally, absorbed just what is occurring here if Labour and the Lib Dems pull off a deal.
If the result of the bargaining after this election is proportional representation in one form or another, there will never be a majority Conservative government in Britain again. There won't be a Labour majority government either, but given the deep left-liberal majority in Britain, coalition politics will move Britain indelibly leftward.
It's astonishing that he can admit that the Tories have never ruled the UK other than by exploiting the split in the progressive vote and, at the same time, lament that this "deep left-liberal majority in Britain" will no longer be ruled - essentially, against their will - by the Conservatives.
Remember that Thatcher never won anything close to a majority of the popular vote - she kept winning because the left split and the electoral system allowed her to divide and rule.
He is right when he says that Thatcher was repeatedly re-elected because the progressive vote was split. But why is the end of that a bad thing?

I have never been a fan of PR because, like Sullivan, I have always thought first past the post produced stronger governments. However, there is surely nothing to applaud about a system where the majority were ignored and the Tories were able to rule for eighteen disastrous years simply because of that progressive split?

And yet, that appears to be what he is asking us to do.
Expecting a conservative revival, we may be witnessing a "progressive" game-changer.
And I love the fact that progressive is put in quotation marks.

The will of the majority prevailing is, apparently, a very bad thing.

Click here for full article.

Conservative heads explode.

The Daily Mail have led with a headline calling this "a squalid day for democracy" and stating:

Gordon Brown yesterday announced his resignation in a jaw-dropping plot to keep Labour in office.

Despite his comprehensive rejection by voters, Mr Brown mounted a desperate bid to cobble together a 'coalition of the losers'.

He tried to lure the double-dealing Lib Dems into propping up his defeated government by guaranteeing to legislate for a dramatic change in the voting system - without consulting the public in a referendum.
Of course, the very thing which Brown is offering is a referendum.

The Sun speak of "the squatter PM's bombshell" and imagine that they somehow speak for the nation as they fume:

The shenanigans provoked uproar as the nation began to lose patience with the third party's dithering backbenchers in the face of an economic crisis.

It's exactly what I expected to happen. According to their script David Cameron "won" the election and Nick Clegg must now do a deal with Cameron which sees him flying into Downing Street.

There is, of course, nothing "jaw dropping" about this at all. The only real surprise is that it took Clegg this long to get around to negotiating with the other side, especially as they have always appeared to offer a much more substantive deal than their opponents.

But, to the right wing press, we are witnessing the death of democracy when the unelected Tories are not swept into power.

The Daily Express led with this:
BRITAIN was last night facing rule by a “coalition of losers” as Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg edged towards a “sordid” political stitch-up.
The Times told us this:

David Cameron told his Shadow Cabinet that he was making one final offer to the Lib Dems in an office he hoped that he would never see again.

Earlier he had briefed his most senior colleagues, in the suite of rooms he used as Leader of the Opposition, on the outline of a deal that he hoped Nick Clegg could sell to his party.

Had that deal gone through, Mr Cameron’s next desk would have been in the No 10 study.

It's all a tragic tale of how David Cameron is being denied his rightful place in Downing Street, despite the fact that everything which is happening is well within the rules of our democracy.

Clegg has given Cameron first shot at forming a government, despite the fact that our constitution states that the Prime Minister should be given first shot at doing that, and Cameron has been unable to to come up with an offer regarding PR that Clegg finds acceptable.

Clegg has now offered Labour a chance to beat the Conservatives offer. And Gordon Brown has stood down to make the return of Labour tied to the Liberal Democrats possible.

I think Brown has behaved with honour, but that's not the way the right wing newspapers are going to view this.

In time, they will turn on Cameron and the dreadful campaign which he waged. But, for the moment, they are going to rage about the way they perceive that he has been "cheated", despite the fact that - like every other political party in the UK - he failed to win the recent election.

If Clegg decides to align himself with Labour, and let's face it that makes much more sense, the Tories will eventually punish Cameron for his failure; but, for the moment, the script is going to be about how outrageous it is that the Liberal Democrats have not aligned themselves to a party with whom they have nothing in common.

Good on Clegg. He, eventually, appears as if he is going to grasp the nettle and accept the historic opportunity which an alliance with Labour offers his party.

I've said before that I think he would have been a fool not to accept this historic opportunity.

I, like everyone else, have no idea how this is going to play out. But, it does feel, to me, as if we are getting nearer and nearer to what Brown called "a progressive coalition".

That makes sense. A Tory-Lib Dem pact never did.

So, for the moment, the right wing press will fume. Eventually, they will lay the blame where it belongs: at Cameron's doorstep, for the dreadful campaign which he waged.

Monday, May 10, 2010

Gordon Brown Resigns.



I'll have more to say about this in the morning, but a deal between Labour and the Lib Dems becomes much more likely now that this has happened.

Wait for Conservative heads to start exploding in rage.

UPDATE:

The Tories have now responded and, for them, it reeks of desperation:

The Conservatives have made a "final offer" to the Lib Dems of a referendum on electoral reform as the battle to form the UK's next government heats up.

Tory deputy leader William Hague said he would offer Nick Clegg's party a vote on the Alternative Vote system.


It comes after Gordon Brown, who said he was standing down as PM, offered Alternative Vote and a referendum on proportional representation.


The Lib Dems must now decide which party they want to back.
The Tories never wanted to offer this much, but Clegg has forced their hand. They are now trying to force Clegg to accept their offer by claiming that, should he choose Labour, he will be allowing "a second unelected prime minister in a row".

Maybe they misunderstand our political system, but Cameron has also not been elected, that's why it's called a hung parliament. If Cameron had been elected, none of this would be taking place.

Shirley Williams warns Clegg against coalition with Conservatives.

Lady Shirley Williams has become the first leading Liberal Democrat to speak out publicly against a coalition between her party and the Tories.

Speaking to the Guardian, she said she would prefer the Lib Dems to agree to vote through key Tory bills rather than become coalition partners.

Asked if she thought an alliance was a good idea, she said: "No. Instead I think it would be better for us to offer them 'confidence and supply' and let them govern as a minority government, coupled with cross-party work in two areas: we need swift cross-party action to bring down the deficit, and action on political reform."

This would also be my preference were the Liberals to have to do any kind of deal with the Tories. They should not become a coalition as they have bugger all in common, but the Liberals could be a good way of keeping the worst of the Tory excesses in check by agreeing to discuss each issue on a point by point basis.

However, where Shirley gets the notion that she will get "action on political reform" from a Tory administration is beyond me. The message which is coming out loud and clear is that the Tory party have realised that they would be dead in the water for generations should such a deal ever go through.

While it is not a surprise that Williams, a former Labour minister, has come out against her party forming an official coalition with the Tories, her party has been very tightly whipped in the last 72 hours, with even normally outspoken MPs, such as the Lib Dem climate change spokesman, Simon Hughes, not speaking out publicly aginst a Lib-Con deal.

Williams was particularly concerned that there has so far been no talk of securing the composition of the United kingdom. She said: "I am very concerned that preventing the break-up of the union has played no part in the negotiation between the Tories and Lib Dems.

"The Tory party made no gains to speak of in Scotland in this election … and recently, the Tories have been talking almost entirely about England. My sense is that negotiations cannot conclude without it being made clear how to keep the nation together, because if we do make a deal with the Tories, we are handing Scotland to the SNP on a plate."

The Tories have paid no attention to Scotland since the days of Thatcher, as they know that the Scots overwhelmingly rejected Thatcher's brutal belief that there was "no such thing as society."

Cameron attempted to overcome this with his pathetic "big society" gimmick which was overwhelmingly rejected by the Scots, who returned only one Tory MP, and completely lost on the rest of Britain who struggled to work out what the phrase even meant.

Now the Tories are turning on Cameron for his campaign which has deprived them of outright power, and people like Shirley Williams are warning Clegg not to form a coalition.

Clegg really is between a rock and a very hard place. Most of his supporters will find it very hard to swallow any agreement which sees him propping up a Tory government, and he obviously worries that propping up a Labour government will be seen as lacking legitimacy.

But, very soon, he is going to have to make his call. No matter what he does, there are going to be a lot of people unhappy with his decision. As I have said before, they are going to dump shit on his head no matter what he does. If I were him I would make sure, at the very least, that I got what I wanted before they started pouring.

Click here for full article.

General election 2010: Deadline day for Conservative-Lib Dem deal.

Nick Clegg is said to have given himself until the end of today to see if he can come to an agreement with the Tories, but he has also been holding secret meetings with Labour, expressing his worry that a deal with them might be seen as illegitimate.

Clegg met Gordon Brown for an hour at the Foreign Office today and is understood to have set out his fear that a Lib-Lab coalition might be regarded as illegitimate even if Brown stood down as its leader.

Senior cabinet figures have told Brown in the last 48 hours that he should stand down and operate merely as a transitional figure for an unspecified period.

Brown is said to be willing to step aside in due course, with some cabinet hardliners saying he should quit before a referendum on electoral reform and that his presence would taint the outcome.

In these circumstances, the rules provide for the cabinet to choose a leader from within its ranks. No agreement exists as to the identity of this figure, but the likely options are Labour's deputy leader, Harriet Harman, or foreign secretary David Miliband. Some cabinet ministers were privately urging the Lib Dems to call for Brown to go as a precondition of an agreement.

They very fact that Clegg is having conversations with Brown implies that he is getting nowhere with the Tories when it comes to PR. Why would he even risk taking part in a coalition which he worries might look illegitimate if was being offered what he wanted elsewhere?

Cameron clearly thinks that Clegg wouldn't dare do a deal with Labour, which is why he is playing such a high risk game.

Brown, who returned to Downing Street from Scotland with his family today, has also promised that he would pass legislation on electoral reform almost immediately. There have also been Labour guarantees about caps on spending in the referendum.

In contrast, Cameron would not be able to back electoral reform even if he granted a referendum. Senior Tories such as Graham Brady, the rights candidate for chairmanship of the 1922 committee of backbenchers, said his instinct was for a Cameron minority government, partly due to his fear of electoral reform.

Many Tories see a proportional voting system as likely to exclude the Tories from government for generations, as well as destroying the cherished link between MPs and their constituencies.

Clegg now has to decide whether he came into politics to be popular or whether he came into politics to get things done. His party has long dreamed of the day when it could implement proportional representation, and that day has arrived. But only if Clegg will align himself with an unpopular leader.

This is Clegg's big moment in the sun. It will never come again. He either grasps the nettle now, or proportional representation disappears for another generation.

At times like this I always find myself thinking of Margaret Thatcher. She never cared that lots of us hated her, she believed in what she believed in and she set about getting it done. We will find out soon if Clegg is made of similar stuff.

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Sunday, May 09, 2010

To seize this historic moment, the Lib Dems must turn to Labour.

The Observer newspaper is this morning openly calling for Nick Clegg to do a deal with the Labour party.

Nobody won. That is the basic definition of a hung parliament. The newly elected members might not see it that way. The leaders of the three main parties might couch the results of last week's election in historical and statistical terms that make them feel better. But the fact remains: nobody won.

The Conservatives have the most plausible claim to some kind of victory. They took the highest national share of the vote and gained 97 seats. But Mr Cameron was battling to restore majority Conservative rule. He campaigned vigorously against a hung parliament, all but demanding unchecked power. He was rebuffed: 10.7 million people voted for Tory government; more than 15 million people did not.

But the non-Tory vote was divided, largely between Labour and Liberal Democrats. Despite many local skirmishes, there is a strain of cousinly feeling in both parties that sees the Tories as a common enemy. From that impulse now springs the idea that Labour and the Lib Dems could join forces to prevent Mr Cameron from taking power.

I agree with that logic. Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats represent different sides of the progressive fence. Labour and the Lib Dems agree on far more things than the Liberals and the Tories will ever have in common.

Indeed, as I have said before, many of my friends voted Liberal specifically because they lived in seats where the Liberals were the only serious challengers to the Tory party. They certainly didn't vote Liberal to see Clegg enable the Tory party to take power.

The Observer notes that, under the presidential system epitomised by the recent TV debates, Cameron won. But they remind us that that is not the way our system works.
But the fact remains that victory, under the electoral system we have, means securing a Commons majority. Constitutionally, no other metric matters. If the Conservatives believe that share of vote and lead over the nearest rival should have some moral weight in deciding a winner, they have already conceded a vital point about the need for electoral reform: the proportion of overall support in the country as a whole matters.
Many more people voted against Cameron than voted for him. That is simply a fact.

And Clegg should realise that even although Brown did not win, neither under our constitutional system did Cameron.

Cameron failed to convince the electorate that the Tory party represent the way forward. Indeed, in the whole of Scotland - which voted 40% in favour of Labour - the Tories were elected in one measly seat.

So the Observer are suggesting that Brown should continue in a caretaker capacity only, for no more than two years, to see through electoral reform, the election of a new Labour leader and that a promise be given to go to back to the polls once that has been achieved.

Combined, the Liberal Democrats and Labour have the affinity on policy, the electoral mandate and the unique historic opportunity to usher in a new era of fairer, better governance for Britain. Mr Brown must offer Mr Clegg partnership in an administration of real national renewal and make the vital concession needed to secure it – a guarantee of his own departure.

Mr Clegg should accept those terms. That is how the national interest is best served after the election that nobody won.

The right wing press would go bonkers were this to take place, but the fact of the matter is that, much as Cameron feels he has a sense of entitlement to the keys of Number Ten, his own inability to clearly set out the Conservative stall is the reason he finds himself in his current predicament.

And, if Hague's radical letter concerning Conservative plans for Europe are anything to go by, he didn't campaign on it because he suspected that we might reject it.

Cameron has no-one to blame other than himself.

Click here for Observer leader.

Tory-Lib Dem coalition threatened by secret hardline memo on Europe.

Hopes of a pact between the Tories and the Liberal Democrats have been dealt a serious blow with the leaking of a letter written by William Hague, assuming that the Tories would have achieved an outright victory in the election, and detailing the relationship the Conservatives wanted with the European Union.

The document, obtained by the Observer, is headed "draft letter from Foreign Secretary to Prime Minister" and was written last week. It assumed an outright Tory victory and spelt out how Hague intended to adopt a tough approach to Europe at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels tomorrow.

In the letter, compiled by civil servants but written in the first person, Hague tells Cameron how his message would be that "the British relationship with the EU has changed with our election" to one firmly against any further integration.

Exposing the massive gulf between Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and the Conservative leadership on Europe, Hague says he would demand the right to repatriate powers over criminal justice as well as social and employment policy during the first term of a Tory government – demands many EU leaders say they would resist.

Hague planned to tell his EU counterparts: "Rest assured that we seek engagement, not confrontation. But our aim is to achieve these commitments during this parliament." He would also tell his first foreign ministers' meeting "we will never join the euro" and conclude: "You will find us firm but fair, playing a leading role, fighting our corner, practical and straight-talking."

Last night the Tories said they had no knowledge of the letter.

The language of the letter exposes the gulf between the Tories and the Liberal Democrats, but most of us always knew that anyway.

Quite how Clegg, who thinks Europe is vital to fighting cross-border crime and meeting the environmental challenges of the 21st century, can think of getting into bed with people who have this attitude to Europe is beyond me, and I am sure there will be many in his own camp who are as puzzled as I am by the bedfellows he appears to be seeking.
Yesterday the Social Liberal Forum, which represents left-leaning Lib Dems and includes a third of the party's MPs, issued a set of "red lines" which it said the party must not cross, including any measure that would increase the gap between the rich and poor – ruling out supporting the Tory pledge to cut inheritance tax. Three other red lines were any suggestion of cuts to frontline services in the current financial year, any worsening treatment of asylum seekers and any watering-down of the human rights act.
Quite how these two camps can ever reconcile their differences and agree to an agenda which will make them both happy has always been beyond me.

I simply can't imagine how this will, in practice, work.

Don't get me wrong, I'd rather have the Tories in power with the Liberal Democrats holding them back from their worst excesses, but I simply can't get my head around how they are going to agree on anything.

Hague's radicalism when it comes to Europe is only one area where we learn that the Tories failed to come clean with us before the election about just what they had in mind.

Cameron avoided telling us what the Tories planned to do once elected, and if this letter is any indication of their intentions in other areas, they didn't tell us because they were afraid that we would reject their radicalism.

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Saturday, May 08, 2010

David Cameron faces Tory party anger.

Oh dear. Now the Tories are starting to eat themselves.

The Observer can reveal that Lord Ashcroft, who pumped £5m into marginal seats, is furious with the Tory leader for having agreed to take part in television debates that he believes undid much of his work for the party.

Friends of Ashcroft also say the peer is angry because he believes Cameron failed to stand up for him properly in the row over his "non-dom" tax status, which harmed the Tories in the run-up to the election.

Today, one senior frontbencher rounded on the Conservative leader, demanding that he sack key figures involved in the campaign, including the man who ran it, George Osborne, the shadow chancellor. The frontbencher said: "He ran his campaign from the back of his Jaguar with a smug, smarmy little clique – people like Osborne, [Oliver] Letwin and Michael Gove. He should get rid of all of them. The party will settle for nothing less."

Another senior and normally loyal Tory MP complained that Cameron's big idea for the campaign – "the Big Society", under which armies of volunteers would come together to tackle the country's ills – was "complete crap".

"We couldn't sell that stuff on the doorstep. It was pathetic. All we needed was a simple message on policy. We could have won a majority if we had not had to try to sell this nonsense."

It was an utterly dreadful campaign with a message that none of us could understand other than it's most basic theme: "Elect me because I am not Gordon Brown".

I watched Michael Portillo on TV the other day saying that he found it impossible to finish the sentence, "You should vote Tory and you will be better off because....."

The truth is that Cameron supplied no such message; indeed, he supplied no message at all that any of us could decipher.

Six months ago I would have said that the Tories would have waltzed into Downing Street, but Cameron fell apart the moment the campaign became serious and people started looking for answers which Cameron appeared unwilling to give.

Cameron is certain to feel the wrath of his MPs at an emergency meeting of the 1922 committee of backbenchers tomorrow, called to discuss a possible coalition with the Lib Dems.

Today, Tim Montgomerie, the editor of the ConservativeHome website, posted a blog saying that Cameron had to adopt a more collegiate style of leadership if he was to have any chance of taking the party with him in talks on a possible deal with the Lib Dems.

For months, leading Tories have complained that the election strategy was being drawn up by a narrow group around the party leader, including Osborne, Letwin, Gove, Steve Hilton, his close adviser, and his communications chief, Andy Coulson.

Arguably the most damaging for Cameron is the tension with Ashcroft. In the early hours of Friday morning, when a hung parliament had become inevitable, Ashcroft said the TV leaders' debates had been a turning point.

"I think from the time the Conservatives were ahead, we then had the debates, which has quite obviously turned everything topsy-turvy and what were natural assumptions before those debates changed the whole of the playing field," he said. "This is the type of result we are now seeing as a consequence of those debates."

Ashcroft has a point. No leader who is ahead in the polls ever agrees to TV debates, it's simply giving your opponents an opportunity to trip you up. Perhaps Cameron felt that he could handle Brown and underestimated Clegg, but that was a fatal error.

Cameron came across in the debates as someone unwilling to answer the questions being put to him. I had been arguing that he was doing that for months on end, but on TV it simply became too obvious to ignore.

Now, he is trying to sell his party a Liberal coalition which they know they should never have had to consider. Their fury is understandable.

It should simply never have come to this.

And I am beginning to have doubts that any deal with the Liberals will ever happen. If the Tories are angry at the thought of having to deal with the Liberals, imagine their rage should the Liberals eventually team up with Labour and leave them out in the cold.

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Clegg Feels The Heat as PR Protesters Take To The Streets.

And now, as expected, Clegg is facing pressure from supporters, insisting that he stick to his guns on the subject of PR.

He addressed a demonstration in central London today demanding electoral reform.

Alex Salmond had spoken to the rally earlier promising that the Liberal Democrats can get what they want with a different coalition.

The assumption is a Tory/Liberal Democrat pact is not correct. There are alternative and more progressive options available if politicians have the will to seize the moment. The SNP and Plaid are indicating that we do.

If Labour (258 MPs), the Lib Dems (57 MPs), the SNP (6 MPs), Plaid Cymru (3 MPs), the SDLP (3 MPs) and the Greens (1 MP) all join forces, they would have 328 votes in the Commons - a majority.

I have never understood Clegg's position because I have friends who voted Liberal Democrat in places like Richmond, Surrey, precisely because they wanted to stop Cameron becoming Prime Minister.

There is simply no natural alliance between the Liberals and the Tories.

The Labour Campaign for Electoral Reform has urged Clegg to resist the Tories offers:

The Tories want to seduce Clegg into throwing away this golden opportunity for delivering a new, consensus-seeking political system. David Cameron's promise would see PR kicked into the long grass. He would be looking to call a second general election before it reports.

By contrast, Labour's manifesto contained clear pledges to have a referendum on scrapping the broken first-past-the-post system, and having a second chamber elected on a form of proportional representation.

Who would the Lib Dems prefer to work with? Conservatives offering cynical promises they don't believe in, or principled supporters of the reforms for which Liberal Democracts have so long campaigned?

Nick Clegg has addressed the crowd and stated this.
I never thought in my wildest imagination that central London would have 1,000 protesters protesting for PR.
He has refused to discuss the talks taking place with the Tories, but he offered those marching this reassurance.
But take it from me. Reforming politics is one of the reason I went into politics ... I genuinely believe it is in the national interest ... for us to use this opportunity to usher in a new politics.
He's not saying that he'll hold out for PR, but he certainly knows that he'll disappoint a lot of supporters if he settles for anything less.

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It Didn't Have To Be Like This...

Marina Hyde has the funniest take on the election I have so far read:

You'll no doubt always remember where you were when the Skycopter hovered over London, tracking the crawl of a mid-priced Rover containing Cleggbama, whose party had won a whole 1% more of the public vote than it did in 2005. Didn't the smallness of it feel so giggle-inducingly right? It was as if Britain's post-imperial decline into a piddling Cowellocracy had been condensed into a single piece of rolling news footage.

By mid-afternoon, Nick Clegg had kowtowed to David Cameron, while Cameron had patronised him, and Gordon Brown had stood outside No 10 holding a metaphorical "will work for food" sign.

There is something ludicrous about the scrambling which is now taking place, as the leaders attempt to live up to the promises which they made on the campaign trail, promises which they were foolish to ever have made in the first place.

I can understand Clegg stating that the party which won the most votes should be the first people with whom he tried to form a government; but, even as he uttered those words, he knew who that party was likely to be, what their history was, and how nigh impossible it would be to sell such a partnership to the Lib Dem base.

"It's beginning to look a little undignified," ventured John Major. Beginning, Sir John? "I think the public would be flabbergasted," spluttered Conservative Ed Vaizey. Once it emerged that we'd forked out for some sod's moat to be cleaned, the public wouldn't bother gasting its flabber for anything less than the revelation that Gordon dined on sautéed kittens every night.

The public always knew the public was going to lose in this election: that has long been axiomatic. What no one had really dared to dream, though – even in light of the expenses scandal in which all three were implicated – was that every leader would lose as well.

There is simply no way out of this which has any dignity. Either Clegg teams up with Brown in a losers alliance, or he teams up with Cameron and pretends that he doesn't loathe every single policy which Cameron believes in.

It didn't have to come to this. Clegg could have teamed up with Brown earlier and spoken of a Lib-Lab pact to save the country from the nightmare of a return to the bad old days of "the nasty party". But he didn't.

And it's impossible to sell a Lib-Lab pact as a positive after the event. That argument had to made before the people went to the polls.

This has to be Clegg's worst nightmare.

And it is, sadly, one entirely of his own making. He should never have flirted with the Tories in the first place.

He can make the argument, and it is one which I would agree with, that the Liberal Democrats can hold back the very worst of Cameron's agenda; and that's perhaps an argument which his base might agree with. But Cameron then has to sell that notion to his base. And that's not going to be an easy sell.
Meanwhile, Cameron enticed Clegg with "a big, open and comprehensive offer". Even though the Tory leader thought the Lib Dems were cuckoo on everything from defence to Europe to immigration, and would rather staple his eyelids to the floor than give them PR (I paraphrase slightly), they totally had stuff like the pupil premium in common. What could possibly go wrong?
What, indeed?

UPDATE:

Steve Richards in The Independent makes the argument that, even though Clegg dreads helping Brown remain in office, the alternative is far worse.
Clegg declared in advance of the election that the party that secured most votes and seats should have the first chance to attempt to form a government. He was obliged to repeat his declaration yesterday. Some Liberal Democrats seem convinced that they will get credit at the next election by allowing the Conservatives to rule. They are deluding themselves. They risk being swallowed alive.

[...]

The alternative for Clegg to a deal with Cameron is no political paradise. It would be almost impossibly difficult to work with an unpopular governing party. And yet it is very straightforward. They would get a referendum on electoral reform this year. There is a strong chance the referendum would be won. The next election would be contested under a system that is fairer and the political landscape would change.

No doubt Clegg and others would prefer to secure the reform in a noble context, but there never is change when altruism is called for. Every constitutional reform has been implemented out of self-interest. No Prime Minister changes the voting system to do their party harm. They act out of party interest. Tony Blair did not give the Liberal Democrats a change in 1997 because he had won a landslide. They are being offered one now because Labour has lost its majority.

Clegg has to choose between two equally horrendous choices. But, one of those choices has the possibility of giving him what he actually wants.
They have yearned for such a moment, but might turn away fearful of its political impurity. A pure moment is never going to arrive.
It's grubby. It's far too late to sell it to the public as a piece of political purity, but Brown is offering Clegg the best chance ever to get what he actually wants.

Proportional representation.

Clegg must now decide whether he's Arsene Wenger searching for the perfect goal, which rarely comes along, or whether he is going to grab the thistle which lies clearly in his reach.

It wouldn't look good, but he laid that trap for himself when he flirted with the Tories in the first place. But this is his moment. It'll be years before such a moment ever presents itself again.

I personally think Brown should not be propped up, and I say that simply because I think it would be better for the Labour Party to allow a minority Conservative government to accept the poisoned chalice which is currently on offer.

And I am not a supporter of PR, but Clegg - from a position of pure self interest - would be a fool if he squanders his moment in the sun. It will be decades before such a moment ever comes again.

Politics is a grubby business. And it's true that such a deal would cost him the sheen which has attached itself to him since the first leadership debate, but he would have the chance to bring about his party's deepest wish.

It's going to be messy no matter which way he turns, so this is no time for altruism. If they are going to pour shit on you no matter what you do, it stands to reason that you should at least get what you want before they pour it.

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