Showing posts with label Bigelow Aerospace. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bigelow Aerospace. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Commercial Asteroid Return to Station

Back in 2010, Michael Mealing began to consider a spacecraft mission to capture and return a very small Near Earth Object (NEO) to the ISS or Bigelow module for study. He writes about business concept here. Michael’s point, humanity will only travel into the solar system if they can make money at each step. NEOs may be the next step after LEO.

Then in January, 2011, the topic of a NEO capture and return to LEO comes up again in the comment discussions on the Space Business Blog here. So Michael and I have teamed up to continue refining this business concept.

Here’s a Pencast describing the basic concept for a mission to return a small asteroid sample to a space station in LEO.  I also include a few markets that might make such a mission profitable.

brought to you by Livescribe


Moon dust legally for sale - $50K for a few small specs. 

Next, I will walk you through the spreadsheet model built to analyze what would be required for a mission like the one described in the Pencast above.

Assumptions:
  1. Spacecraft launched to LEO Space station to standby until target asteroid has been identified.
  2. Spacecraft launched from LEO space station and returning to LEO space station.
  3. Haul all propellant for round trip (no refueling).
  4. A duplicate amount of Delta-V will be required for both the trip out to the asteroid and the trip from the asteroid back to a LEO space station (assuming NO aerobraking to avoid damaging asteroid). Note: The mission’s costs could be greatly reduced if one could determine a smart engineering method to reduce the needed delta-v for the return trip to a LEO space station.
  5. Mass of dry spacecraft: 200Kg (Similar to NEAP but swap out all of NEAP's science gear for some type of grappling mechanism).
  6. Engine efficiency Isp = 342 seconds.
  7. Although spacecraft is docked to LEO space station before mission start, this model assumes no propellant boil-off or LOX top-off prior to mission start. 
  8. Since the target NEO is still undetermined, multiple Delta-V’s were modeled to reach NEO targets. Delta-V’s between 5500, 4500, 3500, and 2500 m/s were considered.
  9. Asteroid 2010 RF12 has a radius of 3.5m and a mass of 500,000kg according to NASA. Prorating these values to a radius of 0.5m gives you a sphere slightly smaller than the desired “refrigerator” in Michael Mealing’s earlier posts with a mass of 71,429Kg. This mass is larger than what I wanted to consider for a proof of concept mission, so although I include the 71K Kg mass in the analysis, I focus on target asteroid masses of 500, 300, 100, 50, 25, and 10Kg.

Conclusions:
The table below is the summary of my analysis. The columns in the table below represent the multiple delta-v’s modeled for our 200Kg spacecraft to travel from a LEO space station and AR&D with the target NEO. The rows are the various NEO masses that were considered (or – how big of a rock the mission can go out and get). The data populated (the cells with numbers) are the total mission masses for each combination of delta-v and NEO mass. The total mission mass includes all propellant needed not only to reach the NEO but to return it to LEO as well. The color coding correlates to the launch vehicle table below – Dnepr in green, Falcon 9 in orange, and Falcon Heavy in purple.






















A few Observations:
  • Finding low delta-v targets will dramatically increase the size of the asteroid one could successfully return. For example, instead of a 10Kg target at 5,000m/s of delta-v, the same spacecraft could return a 500Kg target if only 2500m/s of delta-v were needed to reach it (and at almost half the total mission mass!) – that is a lot more rock for scientists to analyze – 500kg instead of 10kg.
  • Are there ways to decrease the delta-v required to reach these targets or return from them (currently avoiding aerobraking, but maybe a small asteroid could be shielded during aerobraking)?
  • Because such small NEO objects will be difficult to spot a head of time (there are many more NEOs than we have on record - especially small ones), such a mission has to be very patient waiting on station many months/years for the “perfect” NEO to approach with the right blend of low delta-v and a mass that is “just right”. And to respond to new targets, the mission must be ready to depart the station on very short notice in pursuit of any newly identified targets.
  • Growing humanity’s knowledge of very small NEOs increases the chances of mission success.

Here is an example of the tables I built to analyze propellant needs. Here are the tables feeding the 5500 m/s of delta-v column. The colored cell in each table varies the asteroid masses. Here is the interactive spreadsheet for those that want to modify my assumptions and want to view the tables for the delta-V's modeled as well.

Delta-V 5500m/s:




































Next steps:
Michael and I plan to refine this concept over the coming months. Look for follow-up posts here on SBB and over on Michael’s blog.

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

LEO-to-GEO Tug Part 3: And Beyond...Bigelow to L1

In my FIRST post in this series, I discussed the benefits of a Falcon-tug architecture to transfer very large comsats from LEO to GEO (saving money over the Delta-IV Heavy price).

In  my SECOND post, I discussed the potential of a Falcon-tug architecture to carry a 10,000kg comsat to GEO (59% more payload than is currently possible on a Delta-IV Heavy).

In this, my THIRD post, I will discuss lagrange points

I do not intend to describe why one would use EML1, Rand Simberg and many others have posts on this topic if you are unconvinced.  Here is a Simberg lagrange post from 2006 in which he articulates several reasons to utilize EML1.  Instead, I will focus on the financials of such a mission. 

Using a Falcon 9/Transfer Tug architecture, what interesting payloads could you transport from LEO to EML1 (instead of GEO)? And at what cost?

The funny thing about orbital dynamics (which I am only a new student), if you can launch 10,000kg to GEO for the prices outlined in the previous posts, you can also launch 10,000kg to EML1 for even less.  Below is a visual of the Earth-Moon transportation energies (at Delta-V Scale).  It highlights how close GEO is to EML1 (and the moon for that matter) based on energy needed to get there.


Earth-Moon Transportation Energies at Delta-V Scale.
Used with permission from Brad Blair of the Colorado School of Mines.

Earth Moon Lagrange Point One (EML1) would make a interesting location for a space station and Bigelow’s Inflatable Sundancer module has a mass of 8,618kg – too large to be launched to L1 (or GEO) on an existing launcher (including Delta-IV Heavy) which top out a little over 6,000kg, but with the Falcon/tug transfer system described in these posts, a Bigelow Sundancer module could be launched from the earth's surface to EML1 for between $145-191M:


Since each station may consist of multiple Sundancer modules, some EML1 assembly may still be required.  But multiple missions to EML1 amortizes the fixed costs over more missions and could lower the price further.
Here are my Assumptions:
  • Tug is launched on Falcon 9 with a dry mass of 3,000kg.
  • Tug is co-manifested on a Falcon 9. Launch cost $20M.
  • Tug Development paid for under contract and not a part of this analysis.
  • Tug Manufacturing Costs: $50M.
  • Tug refuels itself in LEO as needed between missions from additional Falcon 9 launches (10,000 kg of prop for $50M: $5,000 per kg)
  • Tug lasts five years with amortization factored into price.
  • Tug breakeven price listed in this analysis.
  • Two missions per year assumed (but could be a mix of L1 and GEO missions).
  • Operating Cost per year: $10M.
  • LEO to EML1: 3800 m/s of delta-v required.
  • EML1 to LEO with aerobraking: 1000 m/s of delta-v required (Note: this link indicates the EML1 to LEO trip could be performed for as little 770m/s.  1000m/s has been used for conservatism).
  • Use aerobraking from L1 to LEO
  • Bigelow Sundancer launched to LEO on a Falcon 9.

Observations:
1. Since propellant cost drives the price for this venture, true price reductions come not from increasing demand but from:
  • Decreasing propellant usage [could be solved through advances in engine technology (VASIMR)] or 
  • Paying less than $5,000 per KG for propellant [could be solved through extraterrestrial sources of propellant? Or SpaceX lowering their Falcon 9 prices due to added reusability in their first stage].
2. Once in EML1, could the tug make more money after dropping off its payload and prior to returning to LEO – what uses would you have for a tug in EML1?
  • By delivering the first Station to EML1, a market is created for resupply missions.  A separate analysis would need to be done on the best way to resupply this station, but a Falcon/tug scenario should definitely be one of the options to consider for the resupply missions as well
  • With L1's close proximity to the moon, what fun reasons could their be for diverting the tug occasionally (once in EML1) for lunar purposes.
3. Entrepreneurs reading this would want to calculate desired IRR to determine attractiveness of opportunity to investors. I have only considered a breakeven price.
4. Because SpaceX’s Falcon 9 becomes much more attractive for Comsat operators and for Bigelow when including a tug, SpaceX may be interested in being involved in a commercial tug venture.
5. There are going to be some elements of this analysis I get wrong. Assume I made mistakes. I welcome the corrections.


LOX/Kerosene Tug – Bigelow Sundancer to EML1 Details:






































LOX/Hydrogen Tug – Bigelow Sundancer to EML1 Details:

Click here to play with the interactive spreadsheets for all three posts (in one file).

With these three posts I highlighted ways to launch comsats cheaper and larger than on a Delta IV-Heavy and to new and valuable destinations.  But LEO-to-GEO transfer tugs aren't the only way. 

One friend reviewing this analysis prior to posting was quick to mention the value of simply refueling the upper stages in LEO and bypassing the need for a LEO-to-GEO tug all-together (but needs a propellant depot instead). 

Which idea will blossom first?  The most profitable one (and the lucky one...but mostly profit).  Good luck entrepreneurs.

Monday, December 6, 2010

Interview with the Founder of Astronauts 4Hire


Space Stations by Bigelow & Orbital Technologies. Dragon Lab Missions by SpaceX. And more to come. The hardware is being built. Should Bigelow, and SpaceX pay to maintain an internal astronaut corp to operate their hardware or should they outsource their astronauts?

Would an internal team of astronauts be a cost center or profit center for these hardware manufacturers. 

Enter Astronauts4Hire – a commercial astronaut corp. Buy their services "by the drink". I first talked about A4H here.  Below is my interview with Astronauts4Hire's President/CEO and co-founder, Brian Shiro.


Q: Can you give us a company overview of Astronauts4Hire? The services you intend to offer? The market you are targeting?

Brian Shiro: Astronauts4Hire (A4H) targets both inward and outward-facing markets. We can illustrate this by dissecting our name into two parts: “Astronauts” and “for Hire.” “Astronauts” refers to our internally-focused activities related to building the skills of prospective commercial astronauts with the goal of creating a professional commercial astronaut workforce. The “for Hire” refers to our externally-focused activities to match commercial astronaut candidates with specific missions to be carried out on suborbital or orbital flights. Our target markets include prospective astronauts, researchers, and companies.

Services we offer internally to members focus on the professional development of members as astronaut candidates. This involves fostering communication among astronaut candidates, negotiating special pricing for training courses, and offering scholarships to flight members on a competitive basis to help pay for their astronaut training. Plus, members can gain entrepreneurial skills by getting involved on the ground floor with building the organization during this early phase of our development.

A4H offers a number of services to the external community too. A4H will work with researchers and companies to provide the manpower required to achieve mission objectives on parabolic, suborbital, and orbital flights. Primarily, the services pertain to planning and executing experiments or operating payloads on flights. It could also involve product testing or promotion, particularly for commercial clients, as is the case with the upcoming space beer flight.


Q: Describe Astronauts4Hire’s latest contract to test beer in microgravity?

Brian Shiro: A new space engineering company, Saber Astronautics Australia, teamed up with the 4-Pines Brewery in a joint venture called Vostok Pty. Ltd. to create beer brewed specifically for consumption in space. This stout-derived beer has low carbonation and high flavor, meeting known challenges the human body faces with taste and carbonation in microgravity. Initial batch recipes were taste-tested by 4-Pines and were proven safe for wholesale consumption through terrestrial sales, which will help fund the microgravity beer testing experiment. Drop tower tests conducted at the Queensland University of Technology characterized the liquid under brief, but high quality, microgravity conditions.

After considering many internal and external service providers, the Vostok partners chose Astronauts4Hire (A4H) to carry out the flight experiment. A4H selected its top four members with past microgravity research experience, and Vostok then interviewed them before settling on a primary and backup A4H research participant to carry out the experiment.

A4H is contracted to provide general support to the first human research experiment on alcohol absorption in microgravity. A4H’s primary purpose is to provide the human test subject (research participant), who has a myriad of tasks to handle before and during the flight. This includes experiment setup, pre-flight testing, data collection, and serving as a critical liaison with the ZERO G Corporation, the company that will provide the parabolic flight service. In this sense, A4H has been the team “on the ground” in the USA to support the experiment.

Vostok and A4H also collaborate on press releases and other publicity matters. We worked together with the ZERO G Corporation to negotiate many logistics details for the research flight. For example, when the original November flight was cancelled by ZERO G, Vostok and A4H worked with ZERO G to establish a new flight date in December.

The experiment itself will consist of a baseline sampling of the beer two days prior to the flight in which measurements of body temperature, heart rate, and blood alcohol content will be taken. Qualitative information such as the beer’s taste and overall drinkability will also be recorded. These same parameters will be recorded during the flight sampling. During the ZERO G flight, the A4H flight researcher will consume the beer during alternating 0-g parabolic portions of the flight.

Vostok’s ultimate goal is to be the prime supplier of beer to space tourism operators and hopes that the tests carried out by A4H will lead to the establishment of standards for the responsible, casual consumption of alcohol in space.


Q: Why did you choose to start Astronauts4Hire as a non-profit?

Brian Shiro: We arrived at the decision to become a non-profit through careful consideration of business modality alternatives. Being a non-profit fits best with our near- and intermediate-term goals of establishing A4H as the main aggregator of commercial astronaut sector stakeholders: crews, trainers, vehicles, mission elements, etc.

Like a professional organization, A4H aids its members in their professional development as astronauts through structuring of a training program, negotiation of special training prices, and awarding scholarships to members to help pay for their astronaut training. A4H is also helping establish the industry standards by which commercial astronauts will be measured. A4H will fund these activities primarily through a combination of donations, sponsorships, and grants.

Another important source of revenue for A4H includes its contracts with researchers to perform experiments on microgravity flights. This is important because it allows A4H to build experience and a customer base without having to wait until suborbital space vehicles are operational. Not only does it help us get our feet wet with providing payload operation services, it also gives our members further experience to make them more competitive astronaut candidates by the time suborbital space vehicles are ready.

If A4H were a for-profit venture, possibly having to pay back investors, we would have to charge higher prices for our services. This would not only potentially limit our clientele; it could restrict the growth of the emerging commercial astronaut market. Keeping costs low in the beginning is therefore very important, and that’s why the low overhead of a non-profit is the right track for A4H during this phase of its development.


Q: What is your long-term strategy for growing Astronauts4Hire?

Brian Shiro: The near-term plan is to finalize our business plan and federal 501(c)(3) status as a non-profit by early 2011. We will more aggressively pursue fundraising at that time and plan to start raising enough money by mid-2011 to allow us to award our initial A4H astronaut training scholarships. The pattern of raising money primarily by writing grant proposals, soliciting donors, and establishing sponsorships will continue for the next 2-4 years. We have a stepwise strategy to use money raised on a 6-month basis to pay for training activities during each subsequent half year.

In the first few years, A4H will mostly contract out its training to third parties, but by 2014 or so (after we have a few spaceflights under our belts), we plan to ramp up our internal capabilities to train ourselves too. What form this will take remains an open question, but it could include establishing a commercial astronaut training center. We plan to fund this in part by collecting registration fees at workshops, clinics, and symposia hosted by A4H on various topics related to commercial human spaceflight and suborbital research. The scope of these workshops will likely range from an introduction to commercial spaceflight for the general public in a Space Camp style to detailed technical forums for researchers to further the field.

Beyond five years, when the industry is on its feet, we can forsee possible spin-off ventures focusing on different aspects of the commercial astronaut workforce. What we know as A4H today could become more like an educational foundation, and other related businesses could handle the operational aspects of training and flight services.

Our ultimate goal is to be the main organization that provides astronaut skills training and ratings to help individuals find flight opportunities on suborbital and orbital platforms and to serve the crew needs of the commercial human spaceflight industry.


Q: What capital requirements does Astronauts4Hire have to execute your growth plan?

Brian Shiro: Our biggest assets now are our members’ time and skills, as well as the publicity we are enjoying. Capital investment so far has been light, but we have forecasted our growth requirements for the next five years. For example, we are targeting a total operating budget of approximately $81,000 in 2011 that will grow to $300,000 in 2013.

A4H needs about $150,000 in 2011 to meet its training targets, $250,000 in 2012, increasing up to just over $600,000 by 2015. On the cost side, this assumes a growth rate of 10 new flight members per year, which influences the cost of training required. On the revenue side, our forecast assumes we add at least 1-2 new “Martian” and “Lunar” donors at the $10,000 and higher level per year and earn at least one additional grant at the $50,000 level or higher per year. We also assume to add future zero gravity flight contracts like the beer flight at a rate of 3 in 2011, 5 in 2012, and so forth.


Q: What are ways the new space industry can take advantage of Astronauts4Hire’s services that they may not be thinking about or be aware of?

Brian Shiro: The space community talks a lot about “commercial crews” these days, but when most people say that, they are referring to the vehicles and engineering systems that will get people to space, not the crews themselves. Astronauts4Hire aims to fill that void by providing a professional astronaut crew service with qualified astronauts who can assume a myriad of duties on space missions.

Individuals interested in going through a structured astronaut training program can apply with Astronauts4Hire to take advantage of our relationships with training providers and connections to potential employers who may hire them later.

In the near term, we can work with researchers or companies who want to fly experiments aboard microgravity parabolic flights. Once suborbital and later orbital space vehicles are flying, we can do the same on those platforms. A4H members can serve a “guinea pigs” for flight hardware and medical testing to help establish the qualification of commercial spacecraft for human flight too. Eventually, A4H could become a prime supplier of crews to operate and maintain commercial space stations in orbit.


Q: What recommendations do you have for space entrepreneurs considering starting their own business?

Brian Shiro: Just like in real estate, what matters most is “location, location, location.” Try to be in the right place at the right time and foster a network of contacts that can help springboard your venture to success. Never underestimate the amount of time it will take to do something. If you think it’ll take a month, multiply it by 10, and you might be closer to the mark. However, that doesn’t mean the pace of progress is slow, as sometimes it can feel like you’re barely keeping your head above water just to stay afloat. Keep your eyes on the prize to maintain motivation and try to remind those working with you of the broader goals from time to time to keep up group morale. Surround yourself with a mix of “true believers” and skeptics to ensure you get a healthy mix of inspiration and grounding. For virtual organizations with members spread out geographically, as we are in A4H, leveraging modern communications technology is a key advantage, but one must be careful to ensure the tools foster efficiency rather than implementing too formal a process that could burden the pace of growth. Above all else, have fun, work hard, and you are sure to succeed!

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Interview with the Founder of The NewSpace Business Group

Are you a NewSpace organization? Could you use a group of MBA’s at your disposal to complete company projects without the cost of keeping them on your payroll? Meet the NewSpace Business Group. Think of the NewSpace Business Group as a network for nearly minted passionate, space-minded MBA’s that gain valuable business experience by solving real world problems for the NewSpace industry.

So listen up Altius, Armadillo, Bigelow, Masten, XCOR, SFF, and NLV Challenge competitors. The NewSpace Business Group is available to assist with your:
  • Market Research
  • Competitive Analysis
  • Pricing Strategies
  • Business Development Strategies
  • Business Plan Development
  • Internships
  • and more.
Here is an interview with the group's founder, Jonathan Card (another interview in the series from Space Studies Institute’s Space Manufacturing Conference 14).


Q: Describe the NewSpace Business Group.

Jonathan Card: The NewSpace Business Group is a student group for business students, historically at the MBA level, interested in space businesses. We are focused on bridging the gap between the space technical community and other specialties in business that are necessary to run a successful company. One of the most destructive things that our current space policy has done is that NASA has frequently had to act as the intermediary between the space companies and the public. NASA's goal has been to foment experimentation and technical advances that were necessary in the 1960s to get humans to space.

Unfortunately, it's not enough for the technology to exist, but it has to exist in a network of social institutions that manufacture it, improve it, and operate it and there has been limited success in forming these kinds of institutions. This is very difficult for the government to do in a democracy, but NASA has recently begun to rectify this. COTS, SBIR, and, I think, Obama's recent NASA budget have started to bridge this gap.

The NewSpace Business Group is a setting for people in the space community to apply what they are learning in school to the industry that needs to learn it and so that business people that specialize in Marketing, in Finance, or in other aspects of private companies can learn from the NewSpace Business Group members on their campus that space is a viable place to do business and make a profit. It's less and less true that there's only one customer (NASA), that you need to get money (from NASA) before you can build anything, that you need to structure your company around government contracting and procedures.

Q: There are many other campus organizations. Why do you think you will be able to attract top business talent?

Jonathan Card: Because space is awesome, of course! It's space! Seriously, though, space is the New World of our time. It's a place that is unsettled and full of riches, from solutions to the energy crisis to new IP that can only be discovered in space. It is what will keep our civilization alive when an asteroid comes to finish us off like the dinosaurs before us, when nuclear weapons finally get out of hand, and when some unknowable tragedy strikes our ecosphere. In the end, money is the way for the people to show what's important to them; since space is important, there must be money to be made and the one to figure it out, gets to keep it. Fortunes were made, lost, and made over and over in the transatlantic trade and in the mines and forests of the New World. It will happen again in space.

Q: How do you see the NewSpace Business Group benefiting the NewSpace industry?

Jonathan Card: I would like to see NewSpace alumni forming the next cadre of managers and entrepreneurs of space-oriented companies. There are a lot of exciting companies coming of age right now and there are still holes to be filled in. Companies are just learning to talk to each other, how to do business with each other, and what institutions other industries created for themselves that space companies don't have because the unrelenting NASA-focus of the past has prevented a mature industry from emerging organically.

There are opportunities here that we haven't yet dreamt, and they are problems that MBAs and other business school students study full-time. We are the leaders that will make this industry make money and will make money elsewhere and bring it to NewSpace and so into the future.

Q: What you like the NewSpace Business Group to grow into over the next few years?

Jonathan Card: I'd like to make it into a national campus organization whose members know each other, work together, and can learn to rely on each other. I'd also like to make it into a group whose name becomes a credential; that, with the NewSpace Business Group on their resume, business school students can be assured of at least an interview with investors, companies, and other firms in the space industry.

Q: How can the New Space Industry benefit from your group’s efforts today? Internships? Projects? Other?

Jonathan Card: We have done projects for NewSpace groups already; we helped organize some of the events at the NewSpace 2009 conference (it was this experience that led to me becoming Treasurer of the Foundation) and we did an industry analysis of the future of the CubeSat industry for a Google Lunar X Prize competitor applying modern industry theories of innovation to see if we can establish some insight into the future growth of that technology. Portions of that paper are being prepared for public distribution; stay tuned to http://www.newspacebusiness.org/ or our LinkedIn group for more information on that, probably in December. We are always looking for projects and internships for our participants. The benefits are subtle and more widespread than you may think.

Last spring, we arranged a campus talk by Dannie Stamp, the former COO of Iridium (you can watch this on our YouTube channel); bringing such a luminary to campus was important to the school and it was my understanding at the end of the year that the school was interested in building stronger ties with him. This kind of relationship can be an important way for NewSpace to be highlighted in publications and to be used as examples in classrooms. That kind of publicity, in the context of other topics, is an important way to mainstream what we're doing.

Q: How can the New Space Industry help you become successful? Where do you need help to take the New Space Business Group to the next level?

Jonathan Card: I don't really want to focus on "how can the NewSpace industry help me". It's important to me that this remains a group that comes together to help the industry. Even when we are looking for projects, it's important that those projects are not just make-work for the sake of a good idea. If we can't help NewSpace, there's no point is being a group. If NewSpace can't help humanity, there's no point in it existing. I firmly believe that for-profit businesses, and those of us that believe in the power of the private sector, exist solely to serve others and be others-centered; usually our customers. I guess the most the NewSpace industry can do for us is to remember that we are there for them, and our members are a group of people that will know something about their industry, and if they need something done or they need good people, we are here to help.

Q: If anyone reading this wants to get involved how can they get a hold of you?


Jonathan Card: jcard@email.arizona.edu will still reach me, even though I've graduated, as will any message through the LinkedIn group. This has been dormant for the last few months, but we're revisiting it and will be re-opening it for new members soon. We welcome industry members, students, prospective students, or anyone else that wants to keep up on our activities.

Q: What should I have asked that I didn’t?

Jonathan Card: What are you doing now?

The NewSpace Business Group has alumni at Sargent Controls, which manufactures parts for military and civil space and airplane parts, and we have several members that have started their own businesses after business school.

I'm working at a cloud software company, B50 Data, making software for tracking maintenance for commercial shipping fleets. We're finishing our first round of sales calls without any venture or angel capital, and we're very optimistic. In addition to polishing the paper on CubeSats for publication, I'm finishing a paper overviewing international property law and various means of resolving complex IP legal situations, like those in cloud computing, other than expanding the power of the UN.

I've also started inquiring about re-establishing the Serviceable Spacecraft Committee on Standards at the AIAA so that we can start work on docking, berthing, and refueling standards that we need in order to have things like orbital fuel depots. I've heard so many people talk about how NASA needs to start establishing industry standards, but that's not NASA's job. It's our job, and it's time we did something about it. I've gotten some interest in it from some good people, but it's still an infant idea. I'm also heading up several committees for the Space Frontier Foundation, and I'm investigating some interesting possibilities that may lead to a NewSpace company. Nothing definite yet, but I'll keep you informed.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Gravity for Sale

xGRF Concept Graphic
Back in June, guest blogger, Kirk Sorensen, over at Selenian Boondocks described a cool concept for generating artificial gravity from a tether (and a Canfield joint). I read the paper behind the concept.  Last week when Jon Goff at Selenian Boondocks followed up with this post about a Variable Gravity Research Facility (xGRF) as a Flagship Technology Demonstrator, it reminded me I needed to post some business applications for such a facility as well.

Could such a facility be run commercially? In the discussion below, I will use the International Space Station (ISS) as my example, but the model I present would work equally well with other orbital destinations like a Bigelow Aerospace habitat.

For us non-engineers, think of the xGRF as a Bigelow module (habitable volume) with a large tether attached. Because of the power (almost magic) of the conservation of angular momentum, when the tether is unwound, the station spins. When the tether is re-wound, the tether stops spinning (this is where the engineers shoot me for over simplifying – but you get the idea).
  • Because such a station could be spun at various rates, multiple G-Loads are possible. 
  • Because the station could be despun quickly, the xGRF station is easier to dock with. 
  • Because the station can be despun and respun at a low energy cost, the station is cheaper to operate.

Selling Gravity
Could an entrepreneur run such a gravity facility at a profit? Their profit centers could be both the “gravity service” they offer (a night sleep under gravity) as well as the data they generate from the effects of varying levels of gravity on humans (for use by others in planning long-duration space flights). Those guests staying on an xGRF become both customer and lab rat.




I don’t think it is too ambitious of a goal to return astronauts to earth with NO LONGTERM NEGATIVE EFFECTS from microgravity. Although obviously not achievable currently, I think we are all assuming humanity has to develop this capability someday – the current system in untenable. Is such life-enhancing effects possible through short bursts of artificial gravity? We do not know.

Even if the effects of artificial gravity prove less than completely restorative, as long as you assume the benefit from short bursts of artificially gravity is superior to the current system of significant daily exercise, I believe one could still develop a lucrative market for a gravity service. The option to sleep under artificial gravity could become highly desirable - one of those services that moves from “luxury” to “requirement” in people’s minds very quickly.

So my idea…
Let’s explore the idea of a commercial xGRF with an example: Put an xGRF in an orbit that would allow for frequent trips to the ISS (low transfer times between facilities and low delta-v costs). Astronauts would work in the microgravity environment of the ISS and sleep in the artificial gravity environment of the xGRF with daily transfer tugs moving astronauts between the two facilities. Co-locating an xGRF with the ISS could:
  • DOUBLE the productivity of the ISS as measured in astronauts’ daily “workable” hours (see the tables below for more on how one doubles station productivity) and 
  • Reduce microgravity physiological impacts on astronauts in orbit.

Here are the details:
  • Transfer time between stations should take no more than two hours
  • Astronaut time on xGRF equals 10 hours per day
  • Astronaut time on ISS equals 10 hours per day
  • Three Astronaut shifts of four astronauts per shift
  • Increase ISS crew size from six to eight at any given time (assuming life support could handle 8 on ISS)
  • Allow around-the-clock work on the ISS – including constant experiment monitoring if needed
  • Repurpose current ISS sleeping, exercise, & personal spaces into science and experiment space 
  • Productive Astronaut hours per day on ISS could increase by 100% without any new modules added to the station itself (from 60 productive hours per day with a crew of six to 120 productive hours per day with shift work outlined below)

Table 1 below highlights the productivity of three shifts of four astronauts transferring between ISS and xGRF daily:



Table 2 below highlights the current productivity (note, exercise and sleep times are my estimates only):


Challenges…
  • The political challenges to be allowed to dock with the ISS three times per day are enormous (perhaps too enormous)
  • The logistics of frequent dockings are significant. Note these first two challenges are relevant to my last post about the last mile problem for mico-cargo delivery to these stations. If today’s post highlights how we are struggling to solve frequent deliveries for macro-cargo, how pessimistic should we be regarding micro-cargo deliveries noted in my last post?
  • Allowing a spinning station so close to the ISS (or any orbital station) creates security challenges that must to addressed. There is always a chance the two stations will collide. Do the benefits outweigh the risks?  How can the risks be mitigated?
  • Is two hours really enough time to transfer between stations? If not, does the loss of productivity from longer “commutes” (three hours, four hours?) degrade the idea to the point of being unexecutable?

As with most tantalizing space business concepts, this one falls into the category of, “If I only had a billion dollars…” I do like Jon Goff’s idea of developing a xGRF as a NASA Flagship Technology Demonstrator. Regardless, once commercial station operators have achieved a few more milestones, this concept may be worth a deeper look – adding productivity to our astronauts in orbit and more importantly, improving the quality of life of those working off-world.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Micro-Cargo Delivery & The Last Mile Problem

Orbital Tech's Space Station Concept
With the NLV Challenge Seminar last weekend in Menlo Park, I have (again) been thinking about NanoSat Launcher markets.

First a quick refresher: a NanoSat Launch Vehicle (NLV) is an orbital launcher dedicated to very small payloads (~1-50kg). Currently there is no dedicated launch vehicle for such payloads. Interested customers are forced to seek out secondary payload status on larger launch vehicles. Secondary payloads are launched WHEN the primary payload dictates and WHERE (in the orbit that) the primary payload dictates.

In my estimation, two features of a commercial NLV system will disproportionately drive market demand. A successful commercial NanoSat Launch Vehicle service must be able to:
  1. Launch with limited lead time (fast integration combined with frequent launch opportunities) and
  2. Launch at low cost. I've heard price points between $500K to $1M per flight. At these price points, universities could bundle 12-24 CubeSats into a single payload and launch multiple times during a student’s college career (current wait time for a CubeSat launch can be 5-7 years).
Now, let's talk markets: I believe the demand for an NLV will be divided into two major categories:






I believe micro-cargo delivery to orbiting stations will be the larger of the two markets. I admit, with no current demonstrated market, this assertion is a bit speculative, but here is my simple logic. Developing a complex system like a satellite can take months or years, emergency needs/wants can develop in seconds. For example, how do you get an emergency supply of insulin to a visiting astronaut on a Bigelow Aerospace or Orbital Technologies space station?  Not on a Dragon resupply mission which won't lauch for another month. 

Bigelow announced on Oct 7, 2010, his company's need for 24 flights per year to his stations starting in the year, 2017. But those flights will be planned months (years?) in advance. What happens when the stations need short-term "emergency" items: a wrench, a computer chip, fresh apples?

What opportunities for luxury, science, convenience, or commerce does such a micro-cargo service open up for those on station? This is where the NLV could really augment the larger deliveries from SpaceX, Boeing, and Orbital. With an NLV, station operators can have both large, regularly scheduled deliveries as well as more frequent micro-cargo deliveries working together to service their needs.









But once in LEO, how does the NLV actually deliver the payload to the station itself? We have a "last mile" problem. The ISS, Bigelow, or Orbital Technologies are going to require that vehicles approaching their stations do not damage them. But on-board rendezvous and docking technologies may be too massive for a NanoSat Launcher to include on board (not to mention expensive/time-consuming for the entrepreneur to develop).

In addition, it is unclear to me that orbiting stations are set up to handle the volume of deliveries an NLV service could theoretically provide. An NLV may be able to provide daily "milk runs" to an orbiting station, but could the station handle that much throughput at their airlocks? A last mile solution is required for micro-cargo delivery to truly become the "killer app" for NLV's that I believe it could be.

A Last Mile Solution would:
  • Eliminate/minimize on-board NLV rendezvous and docking hardware
  • Facilitate the increased opps tempo of frequent station deliveries
  • Ensure the safety of delivered payload
  • Ensure the safety of the orbital station itself
The company that solves this last mile problem for delivering micro-cargo to orbital destinations will significantly enhance the attractiveness of any NanoSat Launcher in operation. And if one company vertically integrates the last mile solution with a company-created NLV, such a combination could serve as a significant barrier to entry for other NLV competitors unable to offer such a comprehensive solution.

We need entrepreneurs to solve the last mile problem for micro-cargo delivery to orbital destinations.  There's profit in it for you if you do.