Learning From Canadian Tories

James Forsyth at the Spectator is a commentator with whom I frequently disagree (usually because his arguments are fallacious or based on false premises). He is asking whether a party has ever come back from "this far behind" to win an election. For the purpose of his question, I'll set to one side the fact that the swings at Ealing and Sedgefield would make the Tories the largest party nationally if repeated at a GE and that the Tories won the local elections by a landslide and answer the question as is.

I blogged previously on the parallels between Gordon Brown and ex-Canadian PM Paul Martin. Paul Martin called an election in 2006 where his liberal party were showing a 5% to 10% lead in the polls. The Conservatives won easily in the end as shown by the graphic. More narrative here, but the key feature of the Conservative campaign was their "policy a day" initiative that won round the public and the media. The Conservative leader Stephen Harper isn't and wasn't seen as charismatic, but he was certainly seen as authentic and substantial.

Authenticity is the word Tim Montgomerie at Conservative Home has been using to press home what the Tories need to convey to attract new votes. I couldn't agree more. But don't expect anything I say to carry any weight. In fact the opposite will probably happen, as witnessed by my reshuffle advice to the party to retain Willetts and Maude where they are and demote Osborne.

Spreading Democracy?

I'd like to present some facts behind two salient elections in 2005. The UK had a general election and Iraq had its first democratic elections post-Saddam.

UK electorate - C 45 million
Iraqi electorate - C 15 million

UK turnout - C 60%
Iraqi turnout - C 70%

UK Est'd overseas voters - 3 to 4 million
Iraqi Est'd overseas voters - C 2 million

UK overseas votes - unknown - max 17,500
Iraqi overseas votes - 320,000

Us Brits really take democracy for granted, don't we? When we talk about spreading democracy, we should remember that we've also got a lot of homework to do.

Heir To Blair Is A Cross-Party Candidate

Rumours are afoot that the major parties have struck a deal over the forthcoming Sedgefield by-election. Sources suggest that all three major parties have agreed to stand aside for Martin Dobbs, who is currently a popular local independent councillor. Under the terms of the arrangement Martin will be subject to the Liberal Democrat and Conservative whip on alternate weeks and is being lined up to serve as a junior government advisor.

A smiling Martin admitted that he had voted for all three parties in the past so the idea made perfect sense to him. Tony Blair supports the initiative saying "Martin makes a perfect cross-party candidate. People are sick of seeing the major parties campaigning against each other. I think that Martin's candidacy will be welcomed by the electorate and will help make elections less divisive".

What Now For The Conservative Party?

It was reported today that the Conservatives fell behind Labour in one deeply unrepresentative poll. As other Conservative should be, I am prepared for further ups and downs before the next General Election. The last few months have been shadow-boxing. Strategically, what would you do over the next few months if you were able to influence the Conservative Party? Here's my top 5.

• Focus on Brown's illegitimacy at every turn. The electorate shouldn't be able to forget how he came to power. Eventually, he will lose his cool.
• Campaign for an EU referendum*. At the least election all three parties made a manifesto commitment to grant the British people a referendum on constitutional changes in the EU. Played well, this story can run and run.
• Go hard on English votes for English issues. Making a deal with Alex Salmond and the SNP for them to back this campaign would be an astute move.
• Give a greater say to the party grassroots. Giving members a say in MEP selections would be a start.
• Spend time attacking Labour rather than Conservative "past" . Fight as a team and on all policy fronts. In the last few days I've seen Andrew Lansley, David Davis and William Hague all over the media. Where were they over the last six months?

* An expert wonk should be working on preparing some killer wording for a relevant 10 Downing Street petition.

Another Female Labour MP To Step Down

I have previously reported on the travails of Blair's babes and discussed the wider question of how female-friendly the culture is at the House Of Commons. Blogging councillor Julian Mott reports that his local MP Janet Dean who has represented Burton since 1997 is to stand down at the end of this Parliament. Janet is a bit of a rarity in as much as she has a picture of Tony Blair on her homepage (see right).

Janet was selected as a result of an all-woman shortlist selection process. I'm not sure how or whether this impacts on the selection process this time around.

Cameron At His Best

When Cameron took the party reins he devolved responsibility for preparing party proposals on a number of important issues to experienced colleagues many of whom had been under-valued for years. One such initiative is the Democracy Taskforce report which Ken Clarke has overseen and recently launched.

I particularly like the plans to elect Select Committee chairmen and the ability for 10 Downing Street petitions to force issues onto the Parliamentary agenda. A chat between Ken & Dave is up on WebCameron and if you want extended highlights you can go to youtube. If Ken's proposals go through, I might even be interested in becoming an MP - one day.

Mission Impossible

Graham Brady has resigned from his role as Shadow European Minister. Statement. I'm sure he "loved" his role, but due to his decision of conscience we now have to find a new Conservative MP to take on the Europe brief. Here's your mission should you choose to accept. Old Etonians and people with a known view on Europe need not apply.

Mission Statement - Form a reform grouping of parties drawn from at least 5 states across the EU in anticipation of the 2009 Euro-elections.

Key Obstacles To Overcome -

1. You will get next to no assistance from your other partners in Czech or Bulgaria as you are the biggest member of the coalition, are not new to the EU and therefore are expected to provide leadership.

2. The current Conservative leadership of the MEP delegation will see Brady's departure as an opportunity to stay within the EPP and will be actively working against your mission. They will do their utmost to provoke disunity and prevent the new grouping develop any clarity of vision.

3. There is little opportunity to bring fresh blood into the 2009 delegation because of the MEP selection rules that have been approved by the party board.

4. You may not form coalitions with other parties that have a similar stance on Europe if they are pro-death penalty or opposed to equality for homosexuals. Neither of these issues has anything to do with Europe or EU reform, but nevertheless these rules must be followed. In other words, forget attempting to team up with Polish or Slovak right-wingers.

Rewards For Success & Penalties For Failure

Should you succeed in your mission, your leader will take credit for building this coalition, but will have made many sworn enemies along the way. Should you fail in your mission, you will take the blame and be dispatched to the back-benches. You will have made many sworn enemies along the way.

Update

Congratulations to Mark Francois. He comes from the Treasury team and had a comprehensive education. I do not know his views on Europe. I saw him interviewed on 18 Doughty Street a few months back and was left with a favourable impression. Mark, let us know when you come to visit Prague.

How Does Today Feel?

I am delighted with the Tory results overall and also the excellence of the predictions I made early in April.

I predicted the Tories would poll 41% nationally - we did.

I predicted we would hold all our seats in Birmingham - we did.

I predicted we would gain three seats in Birmingham namely Kings Norton, Billesley and Erdington - we did.

I need to check the detailed results before concluding that we won the popular vote in Birmingham - I suspect we did. I am going to be in a bullish mood on 18 Doughty Street between 9 and 11 tonight. After that appearance, I'm going to be offline for a few days as Ms PT and I are visiting friends in the countryside.

Benchmarks Of Success

Conservatives get 40%+ national equivalent in local elections.

25+ Conservative gains in municipal seats thus overtaking Lib Dems.

100+ Conservative gains in unitary authorities.

200+ Conservative gains in shire districts.

Should the Tories fail on the above, I attribute 1% to 2% points of the shortfall to Greg Dyke type coverage during April.

May 3rd 2007

Mutley the dog has a solution to gun crime. If you haven't managed it up until now, today's your last chance to vote against Blair. Do it. I'm hoping for the best for Pete, Tim, Adrian, Gareth, Sally, Carl, Ian, Tony, Martine, Andrew, Mike, Allan and Michelle. I'll be keeping an eye on Birmingham, Solihull, Wolverhampton, Coventry, Reading, Stoke, East Riding and of course Leeds. Best of luck to all Conservative candidates.

Weird Last 24 Hours

Last night I showed the Ugandan election observers around Birmingham city centre which they really enjoyed. What I sought and got in return was an in-depth interview. They didn't ask for secrecy, but I feel obliged to edit their stories so as not to place them at risk. It was a splendid night and apparently I will be welcome in 2011 for Uganda's next elections when the opposition is expecting to achieve change.

Today, I was campaigning and the leafleting got off to a bizarre start. I asked a chap lolling by his gate whether he had any particular issues that he would like me to address with the candidate. He fired back "Iraq war" and we set off on a conversation that was necessarily long and frankly utterly disturbing - at one point he headed into the house to try to show me his charge sheet (I understand this means hospital prescription) and was describing how he wished for a state within a state in the UK, the destruction of Iran and the return of all immigrants not born in the UK (although he said he wished his daughter to marry an Arab so he could teach British muslims Islam). I doubt this young Muslim/conspiracy theorist is often challenged on his views, but I also felt sorry for him because I didn't see how he could ever be at ease with the world with the concoction of grievances that he was harbouring. Let's hope he's not a microcosm and has anyone got M15's number?

After this halting start, we made swift progress delivering to the gated communities of "city living" Birmingham. One of the concierges got chatting and painted an idyllic picture of the lovely complex that he manned. He said that in 3 years he'd never had to call the police and that his biggest problem was people parking inappropriately. Ironically, we got back to the car in broad daylight to find a biking policeman on the scene and the car passenger window smashed - despite being hidden, the sat-nav had been nicked. The community policeman was a great bloke and a Conservative and gave us all a few handy insights into the community he policed. I think that crime has just moved up the agenda of the Conservative candidate for Birmingham Ladywood.

So, it's been a weird last 24 hours leading up to the elections. In Birmingham, the feedback I am getting is that people are even angrier about Labour than last year. Postal vote results are looking good for the Tories. Strikingly, Labour leaflets have gone really personal on the Tory candidate in almost all the wards that I am following. Unfortunately, it looks like the weather will be nice which will favour Labour whose supporters are generally less determined to turn out.

George & The Dragon

George is England's patron saint. Happy St Georges Day to all English readers. George slaying the dragon is a famous myth. Hence, the Old Town Square pub in Prague called George & The Dragon (don't go there - too busy, too expensive)

Who Or What Is The Dragon in 2007?

The dragon facing modern day Georges in England are those opposed to real democracy. The dragon is embodied in quangos, Labour leadership and to my deep shame Conservatives. Off the cuff, here are my top 10 (!) examples of anti-democratic action at home over the LAST MONTH.

1. State funding for political party proposals - Hayden Phillips proposals.
2. Removal of democratic choice re EU constitution - Tony Blair wriggles out of EU referendum promise
3. High level disrepect for legal institutions - Lord Goldsmith refuses to stand aside in the cash for peerages case
4. Removing members' say - Conservative Party tables anti-democratic proposals for MEP selections*
5. Enshrining secrecy - David McLean (Conservative MP!) tries to obtain exemptions for MPs from the freedom of information act
6. Taxpayer funding of incumbent MPs - Labour Party votes in £6m+ bung for sitting MPs
7. Electoral roll inaccuracies - Electoral Commission polling estimates at least 1 million and up to 3.5 million "ghost voters" on the election rolls.
8. Disrespect for democratic outcomes - Labour Party ignores wishes of its members.
9. Crony appointments 1 - Postal vote counting contract goes to Labour party supplier.
10. Crony appointments 2 - Gordon Brown's pollster under investigation.

* - Decision today.

Have you ever felt under siege? If you count yourself to be a democrat, you ought to. There is a big opportunity to be the party that trusts people and champions democracy. If the Conservative Party leadership blows this chance, the UK is in big trouble.

Social Conservatism

Discussing social conservatism is a minefield, but discuss it we must. Finally (and I mean finally) a consensus is forming that social attitudes are a root cause of the malaise in public services and damaging trends in government dependency, but as for responding to this with practical policies the Tories remain some way off. Matt Sinclair does a truly superb piece on this theme. In my opinion it is stunning both in its imagery and in its perceptiveness. I agree that an incredible challenge lies ahead for Cameron's Conservatives, (which I hope will be informed by IDS and other specialists) but one that can not be shirked.

Matt manages to combine intellectual rigour and an engaging style in his writing. I think this is why he topped the young conservative poll that I ran in January. Elsewhere, I fully support the call he made in February at Conservative Home for Young Conservatives to explore and develop their political ideology. I understand that Matt has now left the LSE for pastures new, but I expect him to continue to make a significant contribution to right-thinking ideas in the future. A star in the making, I'd suggest.

Party Funding Update

Hayden Philips Has Sent Me An E-Mail

It sets out some (very) outline proposals. Hayden's done his bit and has passed the buck to the main parties. On many levels, the principal proposals of the Party Funding Review are craven. Lots of minutiae bothers me such as his use of the term "pence per vote funding" when pound per vote funding would be more accurate, or his utterly amateurish ideas on enforcement of donation limits, or his manifold proposed exceptions in the rules for Labour, his wishy-washy ideas on spending... I could go on.

Big Picture

But, let's go big picture. Conservative estimates place the current amount of state funding of political parties at about £20m. In December 2006 a Communications Research survey found that just 9% of all respondents thought that more money should be given to political parties to fund their activities. What does Hayden think?

Financial Instability

Worryingly, the words stability/instability appear eight times in his report. For example, in the section "Why Public Funding?" we have this delight

"Financial instability is the enemy of healthy politics, and an injection of funds is merited if we are able to maintain public confidence in our democracy".

Allow me to rephrase.

"As a results of profligacy at election times caused by short termism the Labour Party is virtually bankrupt. Public confidence in our democracy has nothing to do with the amount of money spent at election times, but I can't find any other decent arguments for this steal"

Hayden Phillips suggests the additional public cost per annum will be £20 - £25m (see section 2). Hayden states that the future of party funding should be

"built on a broad consensus between the parties"

and suggests

"an agreement must be fair and sustainable. To that end it must tackle the two issues that remain in contention between the parties:

- the design of limit on donations: and
- controls on party spending"

As taxpayers, we are a party to the agreement (we get the *expletive* bill) and I can assure Hayden that these aren't the only issues that remain in contention.

What Would I Do?

What would I personally do? I would make it illegal for political parties to be in debt (no overdrafts, no private loans, no bank loans). That would eliminate financial instability. If a party hasn't raised enough money from their supporters for a campaign, they have to cut their cloth accordingly. Cap donations and make them more transparent by all means, but the state should otherwise keep their nose out of party business.

Real World

In the real world, Hayden Phillips has delivered a dog's breakfast on which the main parties could well struggle to negotiate an agreement. If they do, the only loser will be the taxpayer. Therefore, I want to see Philip Oppenheim's No Public Funding campaign swing into action and 18 Doughty Street and Conservative Home to oppose the stinking pile that has been put on the table. Power to the people. Hat tip anoneumouse at the Anglo-saxon Chronicle for the graphic.

Guess The Politician

Who committed the following to text?

"I do think certain individuals are disposed to crime because of their genetic inheritance"

The View From Abroad

Conservatives Abroad are developing a series called the view from... The latest are from expats in Spain and Russia. Check them out here. Also, if you're interested Conservatives Abroad are asking people what to campaign on. I'm hosting a friend's stag do this weekend, so if anyone wants to do a few guest blog posts this weekend, I would be delighted. Also, my blog is now worth about £40,000, but I would be willing to listen to lower offers. Mail me at praguetory@googlemail.com.

Get Better Soon

I was anticipating a visit from the boss today. Unfortunately he came down with the 'flu, so that gives me some breathing space another week or so to nail down a few issues. Get better soon, boss! The survey on which issues would be most important at the next election is closed.

40% of you said the economy and tax
20% of you said law and order
17% of you picked health or immigration
Education and foreign affairs were also rans.

Check out my new survey. Mutleythedog will be blogging on Friday and Saturday. He is aiming to delight, entertain and entrance! If you don't like any of the choices, leave your topic ideas in the comments. I'm off out for a piano concert.

Us Tories Are Being Far Too Unambitious

We Are Doing Well

In the run-up to last May's elections (after Labour's "worst week"), a yougov poll gave the Tories just a 3% lead over Labour. The actual results turned out as follows - CON 40%, LIB DEM 27%, LAB 26%, indicating that polls continue to understate Conservative votes. The latest Yougov polls give the Tories a 7% lead over Labour. At least as importantly, there is strong evidence that the general public are starting to trust the Tories on the economy again (I always have). In sum, available evidence suggests that the Tories will do even better in May 2007 local elections than in May 2006.

Tory Campaigning Efforts

Conservative Future has adopted a "marginal seats" campaign which is far too conservative (with a little c). Three of the seats targetted (Solihull, Wirral West and Portsmouth North) are notionally Tory under new boundaries anyway! Finchley and Golders Green (Con target no 1!)and Harlow (6) need a fractional swing to be won and even winning the least marginal target seats of Pendle (45) and Worcester (59) would only leave the Tories in hung Parliament territory.

CF Should Aim Higher

Here are the May 2006 local election results in a seat that is Conservative target 185.

Conservative 9421 34%
Labour 7962 29%
Liberal 5103 18%
BNP 3025 11%
Green 2082 8%
Other 104 0%

Considering the momentum is only swinging one way (against the government) who can tell me that we can't win a seat such as this? Actually, lots of people do, but I don't agree with them at all.

Conclusion

I have a nasty feeling that the Tories are aiming far too low at the next election and as a result we will miss out on a majority due to aiming too low. When we win Solihull by 7,500 and Worcester by 5,000, but just miss out in places like Dudley North (103), Reading West (107) and Barrow-in-Furness (115) - thus ending up with a hung Parliament - it will make our campaign decision-making look pretty poor. Let's move the focus to seats that we need for an overall majority. Politics is about taking risks.

Wolverhampton South West Primary Selection Today

Primary Selection

The three candidates on the final shortlist to be the Conservative PPC for the key target of Wolverhampton South West are Eddie Hughes, Giles Inglis-Jones and Paul Uppal. Based on their track record, I believe all three can win the seat. The open primary selection takes place today at the Molineux football stadium.

Blogging As A Campaign Tool

As you can see on the Wolverhampton SW primary website all three candidates have set up propa blogs (i.e. with comments) as part of their campaigning efforts. Both Paul and Eddie have incorporated video-blogging in their posts and I think that this does help politicians communicate with a personal touch.

Fence-Sitting Is An Unattractive Trait

I know that Giles is a committed Conservative, but I'm afraid the review of his website got me no closer to knowing what he would be like as a person or a politician. He'd have to impress me at the hustings.

Eddie Hughes is a popular local politician and is happy to be called a compassionate Conservative. He was the agent who can take credit for the marvellous success of Councillor Mike Flower in a recent by-election. Some have tipped Eddie as the front-runner and he would stand a good chance of securing my vote if I was at the primary.

Nevertheless, based on what I have seen so far, my first choice is Paul Uppal. His video blog entries convince me that he has a natural charm and can appeal to a wide range of voters. He is clearly a sound Conservative, but what I liked most was that he managed to convince me that he is a practical politician who can get things done.

Wolverhampton South-West is a good example of a primary selection process benefitting both democracy and the Conservative cause. The efforts of the losing candidates can be used to assist the winner going forward. Best of luck.

Update

Unlike, Wolves fans, I backed a winner. Paul Uppal has been selected.

Now, where's my betting slip?

Labour's Attitude To Democracy

Open primaries are a great way of enhancing the democracy and an eye-witness blog entry describes how she believes that the evening helped enthuse the public. Therefore, it is with concern that a well-connected Labour blogger who is running the Hillary Benn for Deputy on-line campaign would openly boast about fraudulent activity at the selection. The fact that Labour supporters would call Alex Hilton of Recess Monkey to crow about their behaviour tells you all you need to know about his attitude towards democracy. Labour's counter-attacks against popular Downing Street petitions, their concerted attacks on bloggers and this latest co-ordinated interference in a selection process are just some of the many symptoms of the deeply sick patient which is the Labour Party.