Birmingham

Ladywood

In the last couple of days of the campaign I helped Pete Smallbone out in Birmingham Ladywood. As Ladywood is safely Labour, Pete generously diverted some activists towards target wards, but you can't rid of old mates like me so easily and at one point there were six of us campaigning on the eve of the poll. Despite being up against the Labour council leader, Pete managed a small swing against Labour from last year and added exactly 100 votes to his May 2006 result. More here. Nice one, Pete - hope you enjoyed your well-deserved break after the election.

Other Birmingham Seats

I can't claim to have assisted in any way, but the other contests where I was taking a particular interest worked out well. Cllr Tim Huxtable is a friend from my schooldays. When he last contested the Bournville seat in 2004, he achieved a majority 440 over Labour. Last Thursday he managed a majority of 2,175 over the Labour "challenger"! I am sure that Tim will also be delighted about the recent selection decisions in Birmingham Northfield and Birmingham Selly Oak respectively. I was also pleased to see Cllr Adrian Delaney returned in Weoley Castle in a testing contest. But the standout campaign in Birmingham was Gareth Compton's in Erdington. Not only did he deliver an 887 majority in a Labour stronghold, but also garnered some very favourable local press.

Campaigning Bloggers

On the Erdington theme, I found this picture on the internet from the Erdington campaign. That's Gareth in the white shirt with his arm around the England supporter.

To prove that some bloggers can get off their PCs, there are three bloggers from my blogroll in this snap. Let's see if you can identify them.

How Does Today Feel?

I am delighted with the Tory results overall and also the excellence of the predictions I made early in April.

I predicted the Tories would poll 41% nationally - we did.

I predicted we would hold all our seats in Birmingham - we did.

I predicted we would gain three seats in Birmingham namely Kings Norton, Billesley and Erdington - we did.

I need to check the detailed results before concluding that we won the popular vote in Birmingham - I suspect we did. I am going to be in a bullish mood on 18 Doughty Street between 9 and 11 tonight. After that appearance, I'm going to be offline for a few days as Ms PT and I are visiting friends in the countryside.

Tories Select Energetic Local Woman To Fight Birmingham Northfield

Readers may recall my interest in a safe (?) Labour-held seat - "Birmingham Northfield". On that thread, the 2005 PPC (Vicky Ford) said that she agreed that the seat could fall to a good local candidate with time to their ground work. In 2005, as with most Birmingham candidates, Vicky was selected far too late. Therefore, it is encouraging that we have selected early this time.

The winner of the selection process was Keely Rogers aged 25 and although I haven't met her, we have many mutual friends. She is local and I believe she stood in the 2004 council elections in one of the Northfield wards. I remember being amused at this article where the hack describes 22 year old Keely making a terrifyingly composed speech whilst being characteristically drerogatory about her accent. Note to London journos. That's what a Brummie accent sounds like and it's a plus if you want to relate to people and win an election in this neck of the woods. Good to hear that she describes herself as a right-winger - that will help too.

Keely is a good, local candidate and has plenty of time to make a mark. I wish her well and hope to assist with her campaign.

May Elections In Birmingham

Hello - I'm back. Worryingly, readership figures appear unaffected by my absence.

Due to boundary changes, in 2004, all 120 seats in Birmingham were contested which resulted in the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition taking over from a Labour administration that had been in charge for 20 years. On May 3rd elections will take place in each of the city's 40 wards. Brummietory has a more detailed understanding of the political landscape than me and his predictions are a reasonable stab showing little movement from May 2006, but electoral progress due to 2004 being the base year. Here's a table showing Labour's decline and the rise of the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.


Predictions

Given that just a third of the seats are being contested, it is always unlikely that you will see seismic shifts in the political composition of the council in May, but Labour are likely to lose seats at the expense of the Tories. In a bit of a cop-out, my predictions on how the Tories will do are based around national polling. Emboldened are seats that would be gains.

8 Safe Seats - Sutton (X4), Edgbaston, Harborne, Bartley Green & Bournville
36% - Add Brandwood, Billesley, Weoley Castle & Northfield
38% - Erdington, Longbridge & Kings Norton
40% - Quinton
42% - Oscott
46% - Tyburn

I'm going to predict that the Tories will poll 41% nationally. I make Oscott a 50/50 chance and Quinton a 70/30 chance. Even if we don't win those two, 15 seats should make us the biggest party in Birmingham which will be worth celebrating.

Targets -

1. Tories to win 16 seats or more
2. Tories to win in popular vote (this didn't happen in May 2006 council elections in Brum despite a good set of results)
3. Labour to fail to win a single ward in the Labour held Parliamentary constituencies of Edgbaston (four Tories), Selly Oak (three Tories and one Lib Dem) , Hall Green (we're relying on Respect and Lib Dems here) and Northfield (four Tories).

Labour's Worst Case Scenario

Just for fun, but here's how Labour end up with just seven seats from the forty on offer.

Certain

The Tories have eight safe seats in the bag (see above).
The Libs will win the four Yardley seats, Hall Green, Perry Barr and Selly Oak

Running Total - Labour down to 25 seats

Highly Likely

lose four Con/Labour marginals up to and including Northfield
lose to Respect in Sparkbrook
lose to Lib Dems in Bordesley Green, Moseley

Running Total - Labour down to 18 seats

Highly Plausible

lose a further five Con/Labour marginals up to and including Oscott
lose to Lib Dems in Hodge Hill, Aston, Springfield

Running Total - Labour down to 10 seats

Long Shots

lose to Nationalists in Shard End
lose to Conservatives in Tyburn & Handsworth Wood (due to split Labour vote)

7 seats - BINGO

Big Picture

It's fairly likely that Labour will lose about a third of the seats they hold this time and the same can be predicted for 2008, meaning they will soon be contesting second place with the Lib Dems. People have long memories in politics and so after the electoral fraud and Labour's craven response that marred the 2004 local elections, no coalition in Birmingham involving Labour is conceivable for a generation. If you're a Labour activist in Birmingham, I recommend 2020 vision - it's the soonest you'll be having another sniff of power.

Fisking Partisan Jibes

Sloppy, inaccurate posting at Labour Home concerning the news that the Tory Conference will be held at Birmingham in 2008. The comments are just as misinformed/moronic. I hope you agree that the following fisking is fully deserved.

According to reports on Conservative Home, Birmingham's (Tory-administered) Council has bunged the Tory Pary £2million to host their 2007 Conference in the City.

I think you'll find that it is a discount.

Apparently, the justification for giving a political party £2million of taxpayers money is that the amount of business it will generate will greatly exceed this "investment" - the figure £25 million is mentioned. Well, I can't see how it will raise a single penny in income for the Council - so this is a ludicrous assertion.

No. Yours is the ludicrous and badly informed assertion. NEC Ltd which runs the city's conference venues is 50% owned by the council. Therefore, a significant proportion of the income from the conference will benefit the city's coffers directly.

If local businesses who may well benefit from the dosh pouring out of Tory delegates' and other hangers-ons' pockets, want to bribe the Conservatives, I have no problem with that: how private businesses spend their money isn't my concern. But using taxpayers' money - including a large majority of taxpayers who do not support, let alone contribute to the Tory Party, is outrageous. I'm not sure it's even legal.

Marketing Birmingham (in which the council has a minority stake) has been trying to get all three major parties to hold their conferences in Birmingham. This has been supported by all three major parties leaders - Bore for Labour, Whitby for the Tories and Tilsley of the Lib Dems - although it was reported in September that the Labour group in the city opposed trying to get the Labour Party to come! (don't ask me why).

And for the record, it would have been as outrageous if Manchester Council had bunged Labour £2million to net the 2006 Conference.

Do you know what subvention is? Marketing Manchester has a subvention policy for conferences hosted in the city. If cash-strapped Labour didn't manage to get a discount for their event, that's just another example of Labour incompetence.

Oh, and yet again, we see Lib Dems complicit in this maladministration, given that they're the larger party in Birmingham's coalition.

Wrong again!!! There are 41 Conservative councillors and 32 Lib Dems in the ruling coalition in Birmingham. There will be more after the May elections though (haha).

Typical.

This economically illiterate and woefully inaccurate post is a typical partisan jibe.

In other news a former Labour PPC reckons that his comrades should turn up waving placards and throwing eggs. What a bunch of idiots.

Birmingham 2008 & 2010!

2008 & 2010 Tory Conference

Great news. THE STIRRER has broken the news that an official announcement is due about the Tory Conference coming to Birmingham in 2008 (and 2010). If these showcase events do come to Brum, it is great opportunity and I would love the chance to show Tories from all over the country how well we host events. Apparently, it's been behind-the-scenes work of Mike Whitby (Birmingham's Tory council leader) and Neil Rami (of Marketing Birmingham) with Francis Maude that has swung things. I'm pretty sure that this excellent Xmas event attended by Francis did the city's chances no harm at all.

Birmingham & The Tories

Considering Birmingham's NEC supercasino bid didn't make it to the last eight, I have to admit that Manchester winning the prize added insult to injury. However, these snubs to Birmingham serve to contrast Labour with the Tory dedication to the region. Yesterday, Cameron's speech on multi-culturalism was given in the troubled district of Lozells and I understand that he will be visiting Birmingham again in March. Also, in the May elections we will win overall control of Solihull and overtake Labour in Birmingham as the party with the largest representation on the council.

Unsteady

Continuing my series on Birmingham Labour MPs, here are the three Birmingham Labour MPs whose prospects at the next election are most unclear. I can’t imagine anyone wanting to go for a beer with any of them, so don't get too excited. Here they are in no particular order.

1. Stephen McCabe – Hall Green (TBC as Selly Oak candidate)
Swing to unseat - N/A seat boundaries have changed so much.
As Lynne Jones has announced her intention to stand down, I am assuming that Stephen who is the current MP for Hall Green will be selected for Birmingham Selly Oak. Although uninspiring, Stephen is a safe pair of hands for Labour. However, the boundary changes bring this seat into range for the Tories. After the May elections, it is expected that none of the councilors in the redrawn constituency will be Labour. The majority will be Conservative. This seat is very winnable for the Tories next time especially as I don’t expect the Liberals to go very hard here.

2. Roger Godsiff – Sparkbrook & Small Heath (TBC as Hall Green candidate)
Swing to unseat – N/A seat boundaries have changed so much.
Roger is the sitting MP in the inner city parts of the wholly reworked Hall Green seat. Potentially, he faces strong opposition in the more affluent parts of the seat from the Lib Dems and from the highly ethnic areas from Respect and the Lib Dems. Off-line, I’ve been told by a respected local source that Respect’s campaign is likely to be well supported in this seat by disillusioned Labour supporters the Socialist Alliance. I hate to be pessimistic about Tory prospects, but a top three finish would be an achievement here. Very difficult to call the winner at this stage.

3. Richard Burden - Northfield
Swing to unseat – 10.4% to Conservatives
This is Conservative target number 197. Although I think Labour’s 2005 showing was buoyed by a pre-election bribe injection of funds, which the government have recently reneged upon, the required swing is large (although a similar swing occurred in 1979). This seat is virtually unaffected by boundary changes and Richard Burden is quietly effective. Despite dominating local political representation, the Tories would need a first-class candidate and campaign to mount a serious challenge.

GOING

There are three MPs in Birmingham that look like they are going next time. It’s an unfortunate coincidence for Labour, that it is likely that all of three female Labour MPs elected in 2005 won’t be around after the next election, although it is expected that the Ladywood reselection will have an all-women shortlist.

1. Clare Short – Ladywood
After 23 years in the House Of Commons Clare announced at the end of last year that she will not be standing for Labour at the next election
Swing requirement – 10.3% to Lib Dems – as the issues around the Iraq war fade, Labour are reasserting their authority in the Ladywood seat at the local level. Although the selection process should make interesting viewing, a hat-stand with a red rosette could get in here. Labour will regain this seat at the next election.

2. Lynne Jones – Selly Oak
Labour lose one seat as a result of the redrawing of constituency boundaries. Three Labour seats into two does not go and Lynne Jones is the fall gal. She has announced her intention to stand down at the end of this Parliament to spend more time with the family and due to the challenging reselection process that she would have faced.

3. Gisela Stewart – Edgbaston
Swing to unseat – 2.8% to Conservatives
This is Conservative target no. 47. Gisela might well fall on a national swing next time, but other factors make her even more vulnerable. Deirdre Alden, the popular Conservative PPC is a local councillor and also stood in 2005. Furthermore, local Conservative activists have become significantly more energized of late. Increasingly right-wing, Gisela receives fanmail from conservative conservatives. Her best hope to remain in Parliament is to go the whole hog and defect to the Conservatives to fight a nearby seat.

Astonishing Prediction

In 2005, Birmingham returned nine Labour MPs. Since then a third have resigned from office or the Parliamentary party and one of that number is also a national laughing stock after his aborted attempt at satire on YouTube.

If I was a Labour member, I’d be horrified. Personally, I’ve been speculating about something in the water. I’ve decided to profile the fortunes and prospects of these nine sitting MPs. Here’s the roll of honour with their current seats and my favourite link pertaining to them.

Edgbaston – Gisela Stuart
Erdington – Sion Simon
Hall Green – Steve McCabe
Hodge Hill – Liam Byrne
Ladywood – Clare Short
Northfield – Richard Burden
Perry Barr – Khalid Mahmood
Selly Oak – Lynne Jones
Sparkbrook & Small Heath – Roger Godsiff

My astonishing prediction is that less than half of the above will be Labour MPs after the next general election. I’m going to do a more detailed rundown on three at a time, so before I start, please contribute any relevant comments.

Birmingham Music - An Under-Exposed Heritage

Despite not being (anything like) fluent in each other's native language, me and my girlfriend's Slovak father get on really well. One of our shared interests is rock music. He used to be a long-haired rocker in the 70s and the pictures of him and his bandmates are cool. Take a look through his record collection and one city dominates - my home town of Birmingham. Here are all the artists in his collection that are strongly linked to the Birmingham area.

Black Sabbath
ELO
Judas Priest (pictured)
Led Zeppelin
Moody Blues
The Move (featuring Jeff Lynne and Roy Wood)
Slade

That's miles more than any other city. This article shows that it is not just in the area of rock and heavy metal where Brum has had a great impact musically. Can I make this political? You bet I can. As described by Nigel Hastilow, there is something of an identity crisis in the region aided and abetted by unwanted regional government organisations. As I said in the comments to his post.

As someone who travels widely I find it very easy to describe Birmingham. "It's in the centre of England and Judas Priest, Led Zeppelin and Black Sabbath originated from the region making it the birthplace of heavy metal"

Discussions then move easily to our industrial heritage, Shakespeare etc etc. It's not rocket science. Some people need their heads banged together.

Despite this incredible heritage, I can't think of anything on the Birmingham tourist trail that tells this culturally significant story. As the Tory run council has improved services and delivered council tax rises which are amongst the lowest in the country, our opponents main angle of attack seems to be that we don't have a vision. My good friend and Birmingham City Centre council candidate, Peter Smallbone is inviting readers to contribute to the Conservative's May 2007 election manifesto. So here's my suggestion.

I'd like to see the establishment of a Birmingham Music Museum covering the main musical styles influenced by Birmingham musicians since the 1950s (UB40 pictured). I imagine that this could be attached to a pub with a music venue and would be a commercial venture. The main council "investment" would be for "Marketing Birmingham" to commit to provide the venue with free promotion subject to the venue meeting certain criteria re facilities and quality. Such an addition to the sights of Birmingham would be very welcome and definitely worth the investment.

As we are currently redeveloping Eastside, an area just outside Birmingham's CBD, I'd love to see a museum emerge in that area. It would be a great thing for me to take my Slovak friends (or indeed other outsiders) around when they come to visit Birmingham.

Odds & Sods

I'm returning to Prague tomorrow after a short break here in the UK.

Blogging will be light until Christmas for a few reasons. Firstly, I have decided to try to review all the communication I have had with people I have come into contact with as a result of blogging and drop them a personal note/make good on any favours. Another reason is that I think that the loans for peerages scandal is culminating in something big. Iain Dale and Guido both have blood in their nostrils and this is one big story that I'm leaving to the experts.

I sense a few changes in my political priorities. Most importantly, I think that there is more than an outside chance of an early election under Brown. Therefore, I want to step up my activities in the area of getting overseas Tories signed up for voting. The blog medium is not particularly effective method for this, so I will be going out and meeting people more.

More generally blogging is a means to an end not an end in itself. If, for example I could felt like I could achieve more for the Conservative cause by spending the whole of April campaigning in Oscott (the most marginal Labour seat on Birmingham council) than by blogging I probably would.

Birmingham News

Birmingham Springfield is a council ward whose boundaries have recently been rejigged. Two of the sitting councillors are Lib Dems, but in May 2006 Councillor Fazal of Labour was elected. Via a Muslim friend from the ward (who did not vote for him) I understand that Councillor Fazal's command of English is pretty poor. The Lib Dems have started campaigning for May 2007 and they reveal in their latest leaflet that the Springfield Labour Party has selected Councillor Fazal's cousin as its candidate, also pointing out that the candidate used to represent Sparkhill (an area now represented by Respect) and had a reputation for doing very little casework.

Allegations of laziness and nepotism are real negative campaigning points from the Dems, but I think it will probably work. The Tories came a poor fourth in this ward in May.

In other Birmingham news, we await to learn why an application for £30m of central government funds has been rejected. The funds were to be directed towards the poorest communities in Birmingham setting up enterprise hubs where entrepeneurs could receive advice and guidance on business ventures. A spokesman from the government body (LEGI) said the Birmingham bid team would be told why the bid failed. Heat maps again?