Fantasy Football: Quarterbacks

Now that the fantasy football season is over, time to take a look at how the various position players did, and their prospects for the future.

I have taken the final finish from a keeper league I am in, and assigned each of them a letter grade based on their finish. I have also assigned the following additional ratings for future prospective finishes:

++: Will significantly improve over their finish this year.
+: Will improve a little over their finish this year.
: Will either do about the same, or their future is unknown.
-: Will decline a little from this year.
--: Will decline significantly from this year's performance.

1. Brady, Tom NEP (A-): This year was a monster year for Brady. He can't help but go down a little next year, although he is still the stud of stud quarterbacks.
2. Romo, Tony DAL (A-): Speaking of "stud" quarterbacks (insert Jessica Simpson joke here), I don't see Romo matching his performance either. Plus T.O. ain't getting any younger.
3. Brees, Drew NOS (A-): If the Saints are going to be a winning team, Brees cannot keep carrying the Saints like he did this year.
4. Manning, Peyton IND (A): While Manning still has plenty of upside to his game, Marvin Harrison's absence for most of the season has to put a damper on Manning's future numbers.
5. Favre, Brett GBP (A-): Let the annual Favre retirement watch commence! However, if he does come back, I would not expect him to match this year's numbers.
6. Hasselbeck, Matt SEA (B): Hasselbeck does have a little upside, but circumstances would have to dictate that.
7. Roethlisberger, Ben PIT (B+): Don't be surprised if Big Ben moves into the top 5 next year. With another year of experience in Mike Tomlin's offense, he can only get better.
8. Anderson, Derek CLE (B): Anderson's upside is a bit of a mystery. Have to watch what happens with him and the Browns during the offseason.
9. Palmer, Carson CIN (B): Another mystery quarterback subject to a lot of offseason speculation. While Palmer is capable of being a top 5 quarterback, there are a ton of questions surrounding the Bengals, including: Will Marvin Lewis be back? If so, will Lewis "blow up" the team and start from scratch, like he has threatened is needed?
10. Warner, Kurt ARI (B-): Assuming Warner is still the starter in Arizona next year, expect the Cards to go to a more run-heavy offense.
11. Cutler, Jay DEN (C++): Expect Cutler to improve significantly next season. I can't see Mike Shanahan going into next season with an average offense like this year's Broncos.
12. McNabb, Donovan PHI (C): Between McNabb's injury history and the questions of whether he will even be in Philly next year, I am almost tempted to throw a "minus" after his rating.
13. Kitna, Jon DET (C-): With Mike Martz's firing, Kitna's future with Detroit looks dim. Even if he remains the starter, expect the Lions to try running the ball more.
14. Manning, Eli NYG (C): Manning still has upside, but not as long as Kevin Gilbride is the offensive coordinator in New York. If Tom Coughlin gets booted, we might see some of Manning's upside next season.
15. Rivers, Philip SDC (C+): I cannot see the Chargers bringing back Norv Turner unless they make it to the AFC Championship. I don't see that happening, so whoever the next Chargers coach is should be a step up, meaning Rivers should do better next year.
16. Garrard, David JAC (C+): I really like Garrard. He reminds me of a young Steve McNair. I expect to see him slowly improving over the next few years, with a move into the top 10 somewhere during that time.
17. Young, Vince TEN (C+): Expect the Titans to get Young a REAL wide receiver during the offseason.
18. Garcia, Jeff TBB (C-): Garcia is not getting any younger.
19. Campbell, Jason WAS (C+): Make no mistake: Campbell is the future in Washington. However, I am still not sure how much upside he has.
20. Jackson, Tarvaris MIN (C): My gut feeling is that Jackson will still be the starter in Minnesota next season, but that is no guaranty. In addition, the presence of Adrian Peterson limits Jackson's upside.
21. Bulger, Marc STL (D): The Rams were pretty awful this season, but it is hard to tell what changes will come in St. Louis during the offseason. But the changes WILL be coming.
22. Rosenfels, Sage HOU (D-): Back to the bench, Sage.
23. Schaub, Matt HOU (D+): If Schaub can stay healthy, he could be a good quarterback.
24. Huard, Damon KCC (D-): Nothing to see here folks. Move along.
25. Harrington, Joey ATL (D-): Somewhere, there is a bench with Harrington's name on it.
26. Lemon, Cleo MIA (D+): Mark my words: you WILL see Cleo Lemon again. I won't say he is a great quarterback, but he is certainly good enough to start in the NFL.
27. Pennington, Chad NYJ (D): Some team will undoubtedly give Pennington a chance to start, but I can't see him being much better than this.
28. Griese, Brian CHI (D--): Never was great. Now he's awful.
29. Boller, Kyle BAL (D): This is as good as it gets for Boller. Don't be surprised if Boller is back on the bench next year.
30. Edwards, Trent BUF (D+): I expect the Bills to take a chance on Edwards next season. He can only get better, but I think his upside is limited.
31. McCown, Josh OAK (D--): Josh should make a nice backup for the rest of his career.
32. Culpepper, Daunte OAK (D--): Stick a pitchfork in Daunte. He's done.
33. Gray, Quinn JAC (F-): As long as Garrard is healthy, you won't see Gray.
34. Redman, Chris ATL (F): Redman showed a little potential. But it's hard to say what the next Falcons coaching staff will see in him.
35. Clemens, Kellen NYJ (F): Will the Jets keep banging their head against this wall of limited potential?
36. McCown, Luke TBB (F-): Not even as good as his brother.
37. Croyle, Brodie KCC (F): I have talked to Alabama fans who don't think Croyle can make it in the NFL.
38. Losman, J.P. BUF (F-): I'm not sure Losman is even worth having on the bench.
39. Delhomme, Jake CAR (F++): Delhomme still has what it takes to start in the NFL, but only if he stays healthy.
40. Grossman, Rex CHI (F-): Remember last year when the Bears were defending Grossman as their quarterback? Not anymore.
41. Dilfer, Trent SFO (F-): Hard to believe this guy is a Super Bowl-winning quarterback.
42. Frerotte, Gus STL (F-): Only by the grace of a Marc Bulger injury do we even see Gus's name in print.
43. Green, Trent MIA (F-): Time to call it quits Trent.
44. Collins, Todd WAS (F): The next Mark Rypien. He may have some tiny upside if he goes somewhere else next year, but don't expect miracles.
45. Testaverde, Vinny (F-): As he rides off into the sunset once more...
46. McNair, Steve BAL (F-): McNair doesn't have it anymore.
47. Hill, Shaun SFO (F): The 49ers seemed to like his play in limited action this year. If he goes into next season as the starter, he may have some upside.
48. Smith, Alex SFO (F-): Another failed quarterbacking experiment.
49. Feeley, A.J. PHI (F): A lot of "ifs" here, but he may have some upside if the Eagles dump McNabb and go with Feeley as their starter next year. Feeley won't be great, but he could be servicable.
50. Carr, David CAR (F-): Carr is one of the saddest stories in the NFL this year. All the years of beatings he took behind the inept Houston offensive line have taken their toll on his psyche. He is a textbook case in how to ruin a good quarterback.
51. Moore, Matt CAR (F-): Matt who?
52. Smith, Troy BAL (F): Smith may get a chance to start for the Ravens next year. He can't be any worse than McBoller.
53. Leinart, Matt ARI (F): Is it just me, or does Leinart seem to lack the desire to do well? Even if he gets another chance to start, and I won't be surprised if he does, I just don't see a lot of upside here. The next Ryan Leaf?
54. Orton, Kyle CHI (F-): Back to the bench.
55. Holcomb, Kelly MIN (F-): This guy is still playing?
56. Beck, John MIA (F+): Will probably get a chance to start, but I'm not sure how much upside he can have with Miami.
57. Collins, Kerry TEN (F-): Back to the bench.
58. Wallace, Seneca SEA (F-): Another bench warmer.
59. Bollinger, Brooks MIN (F-): How can a quarterback who fails with the Jets STILL have a job in the NFL?
60. Russell, JaMarcus OAK (F++): Unlimited potential. We'll know more next season.

OTHER QUARTERBACKS TO WATCH: Kevin Kolb (PHI) and Brady Quinn (CLE). Just my opinion, but I think Kolb has the most upside of the two.

Fantasy Football: Gates vs. Scheffler?

As I was getting ready for the first round playoff game in my fantasy football league last Thursday, I was reviewing the last minute news when I saw there was a strong possibility that Antonio Gates, my tight end, would not be playing (he has a minor back injury).

I was faced with the dilemna of taking a chance that Gates would play, or take a chance on my backup tight end, Tony Scheffler of the Broncos. Even though Scheffler is only a backup for the Broncos, he has had a few solid games this year, his best game coming against the Bears when he had 5 catches for 82 yards and a touchdown.

Deciding it would be better to take a chance on Scheffler and get SOME points, rather than the potential goose egg I was looking at from Gates, I played Scheffler. I made the right choice, since he got 7 catches for 100 yards and one beautiful touchdown. Gates did play, but only got one catch for 8 yards.

(I should state that I would have won the game regardless of who I started at tight end, as I won by enough points that Scheffler's contribution was irrelevant.)

But now, like most NFL coaches who have a backup step in for an established starter and proceed to have a great game, I have a decision to make: Which of them shall I start in the championship game? Gates is still suffering from his back injury, and now it looks like Scheffler might even start for the Broncos this week. To make this decision even tougher, the Broncos play against the Chargers on Monday night, so I can't even use the "one game is earlier than the other game" as an excuse to make the decision for me.

To anyone who has (or has ever had) Gates on their fantasy team, he is arguably the best tight end in fantasy football over the last several years. However, this has not been his best season (thanks Norv Turner!). In the league I am in, he is only the second best tight end (Jason Witten of the Cowboys being the best).

But even in this off year for Gates, he still has more great games than Scheffler. Gates has four 100-yard games this year, and has scored a touchdown in 7 games (with two touchdowns in two games). Scheffler has only topped 100 yards once (obviously last week), but has scored touchdowns in four games.

However, Scheffler saw little playing time in the first four games. As his playing time has increased during the course of the season, his numbers have gotten better. When Broncos starting tight end Daniel Graham got hurt (high ankle sprain) early in last Thursday's game against the Texans, Scheffler had his best game of the season.

If that isn't enough to consider, Profootballtalk.com reported a rumor yesterday:

"...Broncos receiver Brandon Marshall got into a verbal altercation with one or more members of the coaching staff on Monday, and then stormed out of the facility.

The talk is that Marshall at one point challenged the team to "cut me.""

Marshall IS the Broncos best receiver, even if he is a head case. While the team is not likely to cut him now, if ANY disciplinary action is taken against him by the team, or if Marshall decides to dog it in retaliation, Scheffler would immediately become quarterback Jay Cutler's best receiving option.

Even with Marshall playing, Scheffler still managed to catch 7 passes last week. On the other hand, Gates has to compete with Chris Chambers and Ladainian Tomlinson for catches. So when the Broncos have the ball, Scheffler will clearly get more oppurtunities than Gates.

(For the record, neither team is good against opponent's tight ends. The Broncos are the worst in the NFL, and the Chargers are 9th worst.)

But which team will control the ball more? The last time they played, which was in Denver, the Chargers won 41-3 and controlled the clock for 32:53.

In that game, Gates had 7 catches for 113 yards and a touchdown. Scheffler wasn't starting then, and he only caught two passes for 37 yards.

But another thing to consider is team motivation. The Broncos might want revenge for that earlier loss, even though they are eliminated from playoff contention. Add in the fact the Chargers have already clinched their division, and have no chance of getting a first round bye in the playoffs, and the Chargers have no real motivation to win the game. If Gates is still hurt, the Chargers may decide to bench him early or not even play him at all.

I fully expect the Broncos to play a much better game against the Chargers, regardless of whether they win.

As for individual motivation, Scheffler wins hands down. He is trying to win the starting tight end job for next season. Gates has nothing to prove in this meaningless game.

All things considered, I will decide who to start between the two based on the following factors (in order of priority):

1. If Daniel Graham is out, Scheffler gets the start.
2. If disciplinary action is taken by the Broncos against Brandon Marshall, then Scheffler gets the start. The Broncos would have to play Scheffler much more than they otherwise might.
3. If Gates is NOT on the Chargers final injury report, he gets the start.
4. If Gates is on the final injury report as "probable", and has participated fully in at least one practice this week, he gets the start.
5. Scheffler gets the start, due to the fact that both he and the Broncos are motivated to do well, plus the fact that Gates would be less than 100%. Add to that the fact that Scheffler has shown he can put up receiving numbers comparable to Gates, then Scheffler becomes the choice.

Wish me luck this week. I'm going to need it.