Ike Retrospective on Pensacola Beach

Hurricane Ike came not much closer than 250 miles from Pensacola Beach. Even so, it did appreciable damage and caused the deaths of two men.

Check out the impressive "high water mark" photos of Barrier Island Girl, our own answer to Dorothea Lange.

A five foot water surge with pounding waves eroded an estimated 70,000 cubic yards of beach sand. That's a mere fraction compared with Hurricane Ivan in 2004, but it isn't yet known if a calmer Gulf will bring it back. Jacksonville coastal engineer Al Browder told the PNJ "if the sand remains in less than 13 feet of water, it likely will come back to shore."

"As long the sand isn't pulled past the primary sandbar, it can return to the shore," Browder said. "That's the island's natural process. But it takes time for the beach to recover."

Tragically, one man drowned and another died after being rescued from the rip currents left in Ike's wake. Both apparently got in trouble when they tried to rescue other swimmers.

Two men died after incidents near Fort Pickens gate on Sunday after being pulled from turbulent rip currents in the Gulf. At least 15 others were rescued across Pensacola Beach on a day that saw yellow flags and 2- to 3-foot waves.

The first death occurred after a man caught in a rip current was pulled from the water about 4:30 p.m., said head life guard Dave Greenwood.

The 40-year-old man appeared to be fine after the rescue and was walking and responding normally, said Bob West, director of Public Safety for Santa Rosa Island Authority.

The drowning victim was a "Brother Gomez," part of a local Jehovah's Witness group who came to the beach after Sunday services. Gomez entered the water to aid others who were yelling for help. "Escambia County Fire Rescue personnel on Waverunners found the 53-year-old man in the water after about 20 minutes of searching... ."

Both victims were swimming at Fort Pickens Gate, which the Island Authority has left without lifeguards since the end of the summer season.

Ike Blows Astros to Milwaukee

Chicago Sun-Times via Bleed Cubbie Blue:

Minute Maid Park in Houston avoided serious damage and has been deemed playable, but not even Astros officials suggest any longer that games should be played amid the hardships area residents are enduring in the aftermath of Ike.

"We’d hate to play our game in Houston if there’s still lots of suffering in the city,’’ McLane told the Houston Chronicle. "We could get out and play somewhere else. We don’t want to play a game if folks are stressing with their homes. The safety of our fans is most important."

Astro fans can buy their tickets here.

Assessing Ike Damage

Bryan at Why Now? has the early assessment of damage from Hurricane Ike in the Galveston-Houston area.

Hurricane Ike Live TV

Ike Just Before Landfall

Houston Chronicle:

By 10 p.m. this [Friday] evening, the massive Ike loomed about 55 miles southeast of Galveston with maximum Category 2 winds of 110 mph. It's moving west and northwest at 12 mph. Weather forecasters predict Ike may grow into a weak Category 3 hurricane by the time it makes landfall between 2 a.m. and 4 a.m. Saturday.

Ike's massive size is expected to bring a storm surge of at least 25 feet at landfall.

NHC Advisory, 11 pm:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH... 175 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE... MAJOR HURRICANE... JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.

NHC Discussion, 11 pm:

SHORT TERM EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG GALVESTON ISLAND AND/OR THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL... IKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...AND THEN RECURVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A FAST APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY 36-48 HOURS...
* * *
IKE STILL HAS ABOUT A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...HOWEVER... IS THE EFFECT THAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. WIND DATA FROM LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH... 115 KT OR 130 MPH ... EXIST JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE A REPEAT OF DAMAGE TO WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE STRUCTURES SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED DURING HURRICANE ALICIA IN 1983.

New Orleans Times-Picayune:

Storm surge from Hurricane Ike is causing widespread flooding in communities outside levees in the New Orleans area, however earlier reports of a levee breach in Plaquemines Parish were false.

Elsewhere in the state, surge from Ike has breached or overtopped levees in Terrebonne and St. Mary Parish.

Corpus Christie Caller:

The U.S. Coast Guard is searching for a 19-year-old male who was swept off the south Packery Channel jetty by high waves associated with Hurricane Ike Friday.
* * *
Witnesses and police said the missing man and a friend were walking along the jetty when the man was swept over by a wave. Long and Leal attempted to help the man’s friend get back onto the jetty when a large wave crashed into the trio. Both had visible cuts and bruises. Corpus Christi Fire Department carried the two injured men about a quarter of a mile where ambulances were waiting.

Pensacola News Journal:

Pensacola Beach officials said today water driven by Hurricane Ike are receding, but cautioned that strong surf presents a danger for swimmers.

Public Safety Director Bob West said water is no longer breaching the island at the entrance of Fort Pickens or along portions of the island east of Park East -- two of the hardest-hit areas on Thursday.

Live TV from Houston

Try Houston's ABC affiliate--

KTRK-TV (ch. 13)

The experimental web site called Maroonspoon also is streaming four Houston TV stations -- simultaneously.

Ike Clobbers Cuba; Keys Evac Lifted

UPDATED BELOW

Ike is a Category 2 hurricane at the moment, located about 165 nautical miles southeast of Key West, and moving at 14 mph. Naval Meteorologists report it has 12 ft. seas. The Navy's long-range 5-day forecast path now points directly at Galveston, Texas.

Florida Keys papers report this afternoon that --

The mandatory resident evacuation order for Hurricane Ike, set to expire at noon today, will not be extended * * *

The current track of Hurricane Ike takes the core of the storm well south and west of the Keys and sustained hurricane force winds should miss the island chain, meteorologists at the National Weather Service Key West office said.

A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning continues for the entire Florida Keys, from Ocean Reef through the Dry Tortugas.

The National Hurricane Center's 2pm advisory reads in part:

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TODAY... MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. ACCORDINGLY... IT IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY IKE.

UPDATE
9-8 pm

NHC 4 pm [CDT] discussion: Ike has weakened over Cuba but likely will strengthen again. Due to a weakening of the low pressure ridge over the Midwest and another anticipated to strengthen in the Southwest, computer forecast models now are in"reasonably good agreement" that eventually Ike will be steered more westerly than previously expected.

Hurricane Ike's Pasta Problem

Ike is pounding Cuba and Cuba is counter-attacking by weakening Ike to Cat-2 status. Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center says early this morning "there has been no significant change to the forecast track."

That announcement, however, comes with a great big asterisk: there is no change in the forecast because the forecaster chose not to make one.

This offers the opportunity to remind everyone that the popular NHC 5-day forecast cone track (shown above), and the computer spaghetti tracking models on which it is based (shown below), are heavily dependent on human interpretations and just plain guessing. With computers, of course, it's always "garbage in, garbage out." With hurricane forecasting by humans, it also can be "spaghetti tracks out -- and then ignored."

That's what has happened this morning. NHC forecaster "Franklin" notes that --

Ike's trajectory is expected to bend gradually to the right as the storm nears a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the next couple of days... and the guidance models are tightly clustered through 72 hours.

Then he candidly discloses that three spaghetti models -- the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF -- "show a bend to the right at the end of the forecast period." Other models do not.

What to do in constructing the 5-day graphic forecast cone above? Confesses Franklin:

Even though the GFDL has performed very well with Ike so far... I've chosen not to adjust the track eastward given that the large-scale fields in the GFS have no support from the other models.

Data in, choices must be made. Some data is accepted, some is ignored -- like three of the spaghetti models shown here:

Franklin may be proved a genius or a fool, but at least he's honest. He ends with this warning: "It is still too soon to know what portion of the Gulf Coast will ultimately be affected by Ike."

Ike "Still Too Early" To Forecast Landfall

Late Sunday afternoon, the word from NHC was that while the computer forecast models (above) are trending westward and many of them now foresee Ike missing that northeast turn toward the Florida panhandle, "it is much too early to anticipate which areas along the Gulf Coast could be impacted by this system."

Navy meteorologists are similarly cautious. "Errors for track" they note, "have averaged near 250 nautical miles on day 4 and 350 nautical miles on day 5."

Sunday Morning Spagehetti

Hurricane Ike forecast models, 6 am:

NHC consensus 5-day forecast cone:

Ike Predictions from the U.S. Navy

UPDATED BELOW
U.S. Navy meteorologists currently are forecasting Hurricane Ike will make landfall in eastern Cuba tomorrow, then begin a day-long trek across that island nation's length. The Florida Keys are under a mandatory evacuation; tourists are leaving today, residents tomorrow.
UPDATE
9-6 pm

NHC 4 pm (CDT):

Ike is again a Category 4 storm. All models now agree it will move into the Gulf of Mexico after passing or transversing Cuba. Once that happens --

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE'S EVENTUAL TRACK AT THE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS... WITH THE GFDL MODEL SHOWING IKE TURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS... WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE BYPASSING IKE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD.

IT IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO COMMIT TO EITHER ONE OF THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS.

Ike's Project Path Toward the Gulf

NHC public advisory, 8am:

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
* * *
IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES... STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF THE CENTER OF IKE.

NHC Discussion:

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE IKE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA. IN FACT... THE TWO HURRICANE MODELS ACTUALLY BRING THE CYCLONE OVER THE ISLAND IN 36 HOURS. WITHOUT QUESTION... THE PARTICULAR TRACK THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE SUGGESTING COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON IKE'S INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS ADJUSTED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO COMPENSATE FOR THE WESTWARD-SHIFTING MODEL TREND.

The U.S. Navy has its own storm path projection, and it isn't good for the central Gulf Coast:

Ike Spaghetti Models Slip Farther West

Compare this to Jim Williams' invaluable archive of earlier Ike spaghetti models.

Hurricane Ike Rattling Floridians

UPDATED BELOW In its late afternoon update, the National Hurricane Center isn't as candid as foreign news sources, which outright say Hurricane Ike is headed "through the Florida Keys island chain as a ferociously destructive Category 4 hurricane into the Gulf of Mexico." But the meaning behind the NHC's latest discussion is plain enough:

ALL MODELS SUGGEST SOME SORT OF WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA IN A FEW DAYS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEAKNESS MAY ALLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TURN OF THE HURRICANE.

Wall Street gamblers know what that means, too. Bloomberg's wire service has the doleful news:

Catastrophe bonds, used by investors to bet against natural disasters, fell for the first time since March as Hurricane Gustav lashed Louisiana, Tropical Storm Hanna headed for the Carolinas and another storm, Ike, approached Florida.

Translation: Don't bet now against a destructive storm hitting Florida.

To be sure, as NHC keeps telling us, "four- and five-day track forecasts can have significant errors." Forecasts beyond three days are highly uncertain. Anything can happen. Yadda, yadda, yadda.

Anything can happen. Locals we're running into today are thinking that very same thing as they look over the plywood panels at Lowe's and pick up packing boxes large enough to hold all those family photos.

UPDATE
9-5 pm

Bryan at Why Now? in nearby Chumuckla riffs off Dr. Jeff Masters to point out we could "set a record" for six destructive strikes in a row.

Ike Uncertainty

While the entire East Coast watches Hannah, here in Pensacola we're keeping a wary eye on Hurricane Ike.

The NHC says at 11 am Friday that 'regardless' of some modest wind sheer affecting Ike at the moment, "all signs are that Ike will be a dangerous hurricane for days to come." The uncertainty is over its future path, as the National Hurricane Center shouts:

THE MODELS THAT DRIVE THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/HWRF/GFDL MODELS... SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTACT ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY SEND IKE TOWARD CUBA OR THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE UKMET/GFDN/NOGAPS... ON THE OTHER HAND... SUGGEST THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE MORE THE WEST AND HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AROUND 80W. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE LATTER CLUSTER OF MODELS ALREADY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GUIDANCE AND SHIFTED SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

Below are the latest spaghetti models. Four of six carry Ike into the Gulf by mid-week, next:

Below, you can see how NHC makes sense of those models with a (non-) census forecast cone:

As always, NHC adds, "Five-day track forecasts can have significant errors."

Hurricane Ike Hard To Predict

UPDATE BELOW
Hurricane Ike is now "an extremely dangerous Category Four hurricane," the National Hurricane Center says. The storm, however, is still well out to sea. Its eventual landfall point and strength remain highly dependent on a complicated series of atmospheric phenomena.

The models, however, presently result in a "consensus" projected path over or very near south Florida, as shown above, and into the Gulf of Mexico sometime early next week.

NHC offers more details:

A DEEP-LAYER HIGH IS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE THE HEADING OF IKE TO BEND WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IT IS EXPECTED THAT IKE WILL HAVE PASSED THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...AND TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.
* * *
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN 4- AND 5-DAY TRACK FORECASTS... IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT LAND AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS HURRICANE.

Looks like another weekend of anxiety and preparation.

UPDATE
9-4 am

NHC's 11 o'clock update sounds even more confused.

THE MODELS HAVE SPLIT INTO TWO GENERAL CAMPS THIS MORNING. THE UKMET/GFS/HWRF ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE INITIALLY...THEN SHOW LESS OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS... COMPRISED OF THE NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN/GFDL... SHOW A FASTER TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AND SUGGEST MORE OF A THREAT TO THE BAHAMAS.

Result? Essentially no change, for now.

Hurricane Ike

UPDATED BELOW

As we predicted, Ike is now a hurricane.

IN ABOUT 72 HOURS... OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC FACTORS BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION... AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GFDL AND HWRF... FORECAST A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAYS 4 and 5... .
* * *
ALL OF THE MODELS DO SHOW THE BEGINNINGS OF A MOTION NORTH OF DUE WEST BY DAY 5... BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THIS IS THE START OF RECURVATURE... OR IF ENOUGH RIDGING WILL REMAIN BEYOND DAY 5 TO KEEP IKE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD.

UPDATE
9-3 pm
National Hurricane Center, 8 pm: Ike is now a Category 3 hurricane. The forecast track remains the same, and here it is --

The Storm We're Watching

T.S. Hanna is a mess right now, the "center is not well defined," and in any event almost surely it will track up the East Coast, well away from the Florida panhandle. Here's wishing good luck to our Boston relatives.

T.S. Josephine is still too far away to cause us worry right now, and in any event forecasters expect it to begin weakening in a couple of days as it encounters wind sheer.

The storm we are riveted on is Ike. The center of this tropical storm is relatively small but tight. It's likely to reach hurricane status very soon. Moreover, computer models do not see Ike weakening any time soon. And, the projected path gives us the willies.

Unless the mountains of eastern Cuba deal a kock-out blow to 'Hurricane Ike' (as it will be known), this one looks to us like it's heading straight for the Gulf of Mexico some time next week.

Three Tropical Storms

Graphic Courtesy Hurricane City

T.S. Hanna: In what NHC describes as a "low confidence" forecast, it is said early this afternoon that --

There is nearly an equal probability of Hanna being a tropical storm or hurricane at day 3.
* * *
Slow and erratic motion is expected today but Hanna should start moving Northwestward tonight or tomorrow.
* * *
On the forecast track... Hanna is expected to approach the East Coast of Florida... Georgia... or South Carolina in 2 to 3 days. It should be stressed that the expected angle of approach and track uncertainty make it impossible to narrow down the potential impact area.

T.S.Ike:

Ike has a compact and well-defined circulation.
* * *
Model guidance remains in excellent agreement regarding the track of Ike. Most models... except for the GFDN... are tightly clustered within the first 48 hours then only slightly diverge beyond that to day 5. * * * We couldn't have asked for better agreement in the guidance.
* * *
Given the small size of the system... it is probably more susceptible to the dry air and will probably remain so until it can develop just enough deep convection to isolate itself. The statistical-dynamical models such as the Ships and LGEM indicate gradual intensification to a hurricane before northeasterly shear increases over the system in 48 hours. The GFDL and HWRF apparently ignore such shear and forecast Ike to be a major hurricane in 3-4 days.

T.S. Jospehine:

Wind shear is essentially non-existent over the cyclone... so steady strengthening seems likely in the short term... and could be rapid... .
* * *
Wind shear will probably increase in a couple of days... though all of the objective guidance calls for a weakening trend to start by 72 hours.
* * *
Models are in very good agreement through 48 hours but then diverge markedly... with the GFS turning the cyclone westward and the GFDL and HWRF taking it northwestward.

Gustav Regains its Gusto

Gustav is again a hurricane. And, it is still confounding the experts at the National Hurricane Center. All they feel comfortable saying publicly is:

• "Conditions over the Gulf appear to support a major hurricane;" and
• "Final landfall remains possible throughout the Northern Gulf Coast."

If you drill down deep enough on the Hurricane City Message boards, you'll run across a plausible but unsourced assertion earlier today that NHC forecasters --

have shifted the course to the east, but not as far as they wanted to. The comment was made that they wanted to avoid the "Windshield Wiper" effect. Expect NHC to move the course further east at the next update.

Repeat: unsourced. We shall see just how far east, if at all, that cone shifts over the next 48 hours....