A Tale of Two Polls

Aren't contradictory polls annoying? Yesterday, we saw Yougov announce that on the Constituency vote, Labour led with 33%, the SNP were second with 28%, and the Tories and LibDems were tied for 16%. Today, we find out (though the fieldwork was done earlier) that Ipsos MORI put the SNP at 36%, Labour at 29%, the LibDems at 15% and the Tories at 14%. Unfortunately, we don't (yet) appear to have figures for the Regional Vote on the Ipsos MORI poll. So as things stand, we can only really see which of the new constituencies are in play next year.

The YouGov poll makes uncomfortable reading for Michael Matheson, who would be at risk of losing Falkirk West. By contrast, Ipsos MORI give Karen Whitefield (Lab, Airdrie & Shotts) and Cathy Peattie ((Lab, Falkirk East) cause for concern.

YouGov have bad news for Nicola Sturgeon (or, more likely, bad news for whoever should end up fifth on the SNP's Glasgow List), as Glasgow Southside would move into the red column. Ipsos MORI have worse news for Pauline McNeill, who would lose her seat.

The YouGov poll would make it wise for Enterprise Minister Jim Mather to once again seek a place on the Highlands & Islands list, as his seat woud go to the LibDems on their results, while Na h-Eileanan an Iar would go to Labour (bad news for Alasdair Allan). By contrast, Ipsos MORI have the SNP holding those seats, and even have the party gaining Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch from the LibDems.

YouGov see Angela Constance failing to hold on in Almond Valley and Kenny MacAskill unable to retain Edinburgh Eastern. By contrast, Ipsos MORI see Mary Mulligan losing Linlithgow and Rhona Brankin losing Midlothian North & Musselburgh.

YouGov foresee trouble for Keith Brown in Clackmannanshire & Dunblane and Bruce Crawford in Stirling as both would be vulnerable to Labour. Ipsos MORI foresee Lewis MAcdonald losing Aberdeen Central to the SNP.

The YouGov poll puts Willie Coffey in difficulty in Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley, and would give LibDem Jeremy Purvis the chance to hang on in Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale despite the boundary changes. The Ipsos MORI results see that as an SNP win, and see Karen Gillon losing Clydesdale.

Finally, the YouGov figures highlight Kenneth Gibson's vulnerability in Cunninghame North, but Ipsos MORI have Jackie Baillie in trouble in Dumbarton.

So as things stand, there are twenty constituencies in play: ten SNP constituencies and one SNP notional according to YouGov, against eight Labour seats and one LibDem constituency as per Ipsos MORI.

The messages do seem contradictory, but perhaps the best thing would be to get this year's election out of the way, the better to see the shape that next year's contest will take.

Poll Dancing

Those interested in polls and number-crunching will love the PoliticsHome.com Electoral Index, unveiled today - unless they are Labour supporters, I suppose. The survey of 35,000 people in 238 marginal seats forecasts what could be called a "Reverse '97", with eight members of the Cabinet losing their seats, and the Tories picking up a majority of 146.

The poll makes particularly good reading for SNP supporters, particularly with regard to the Glenrothes By-Election:

"Uniquely across Britain, in Scotland our poll shows the Conservatives making almost no progress in the key marginals. Instead the anti-Labour vote had gone solidly behind the SNP, giving them sweeping gains across the country. The 14.5% swing indicated is easily enough to win the SNP target seats we polled and, if repeated in seats with larger Labour majority would give them a further eight gains, including Glenrothes, the location of the forthcoming by-election."

Indeed, the results would be impressive. The Tories would not manage to unseat Alistair Darling, but they would succeed in deposing Europe Minister Jim Murphy in East Renfrewshire, and Peter Duncan would return to the Commons by defeating Russell Brown in East Renfrewshire. And as a further bonus to the party, they would gain Edinburgh South from Nigel Griffiths - who took it from them in 1987. This will come as a blow to the Liberal Democrats, who see this as one of their most logical targets, and almost won the seat in 2005. However, Tory target seats currently in LibDem hands will elude them, as will the SNP-held seats they're chasing. For the SNP's part, they now appear favourites to unseat Work & Pensions Minister Anne McGuire in Stirling - following on from Bruce Crawford's win there last year - and Des Browne, the Scotland Secretary, would also fall. Dundee would become and SNP City at Westminster, as it is at Holyrood, and surprisingly, Aberdeen would as well: Aberdeen North you could see going SNP but South was a different matter - this poll suggests that it is now winnable. Annabelle Ewing would return to the Commons in Ochil & South Perthshire; Calum Cashley might want to start pricing up headed notepaper for Edinburgh North & Leith, while Argyll & Bute would be an SNP gain from the LibDems, just as it was last year. And here's an unexpected result, perhaps the biggest surprise if correct: while Labour would fail to regain Dunfermline & West Fife, the LibDems would not consolidate their By-Election gain - rather, the SNP appear to be ahead in this seat as well.

The findings are extrapolated to other seats:

"If the same swing was repeated beyond the marginals polled the SNP would also gain Glenrothes, Midlothian, Linlithgow and Falkirk East, Lanarck [sic] and Hamilton East, Paisley and Renfrewshire North, Edinburgh East, Ayrshire North and Arran and East Lothian. High profile defeats would include Des Browne, with Alistair Darling hanging on only narrowly."

By my reckoning, that would create an SNP Westminster Group of 23 MPs, exceeding Alex Salmond's target of 20. Labour would fall from 40 seats to 21 - unless Michael Martin stood down, in which case they'd pick up 22 seats. Nevertheless, the fact that they would no longer be the largest party in terms of Scottish seats at Westminster would be a massive psychological blow, perhaps even worse than 2007 as Labour still managed to win more Constituencies then that the SNP did. The LibDems would find themselves with ten seats, a loss of one on 2005, while the Conservatives would have four. Now that would be a clear under-representation considering their likely vote share, but it would still be a huge embarrassment to the party forming the UK Government with such a big majority. There would of course be questions regarding the Tories' mandate in Scotland and it would confirm that the politics of Scotland were now utterly separate and distinct from those in England: a viewpoint that's backed up with the absence of any meaningful Tory advance North of the Border, with seats only going blue as a result of a Labour collapse.

But there's one caveat I wish to raise to all of this. Look at this: "If the same swing was repeated..."

I have one simple rule: never trust anyone who doesn't know how to use the Subjunctive. It's "If the same swing were repeated..."

We'll find out how good their polling is in 2010. But for now, we know that their grammar's awful.

Poll dancing

I'm prefacing my remarks with that old cliché that the only poll that matters is on the 24th of July. Nevertheless, YouGov's Scottish Omnibus poll for the Telegraph makes interesting reading. Now, a set of questions on Holyrood would be nice, but Westminster is the centre of attention right now so I'll just have to deal with my disappointment.

Anyway, the SNP do enjoy a 4 point Westminster lead over Labour (33:29) with the Tories on 20% and the LibDems on 14%. Martin Baxter's Electoral Calculus model puts Labour on 26 seats (down 15), the SNP on 19 (up 13, unseating Scotland Secretary Des Browne), the LibDems on 8 (down 3) and the Tories on 6 (up 5, unseating Europe Minister Jim Murphy).

UNS predicts a 13% swing from Labour to the SNP: Labour end up with 29 on that model (still losing Messrs. Browne and Murphy, though), the SNP on 15, the LibDems on 10 and Tories on 5.

But this doesn't give us extra insight into Glasgow East. This poll suggests the trends have Labour and LibDem support collapsing, and SNP support shooting upwards, with a smaller upward trend towards the Tories. That makes it a good morale-booster for SNP supporters, and uncomfortable reading for Labour backers. So it could affect the By-Election rather than reflect it.

And indeed, the question about whether or not people want to see the Labour or SNP candidate win doesn't tell us much either, as it's not a Glasgow East poll, but a Scotland-wide one. Though it does suggest that given a stright choice between a Labour candidate and an SNP candidate, Tories prefer sticking it to Gordon Brown over holding back the SNP advance by a margin of almost three to one: 58% to 20%. "Not sure" comes two points ahead of Margaret Curran. LibDems are more evenly split: 44% prefer John Mason, while 41% want the MSP for Glasgow Baillieston to win.

Again, this doesn't tell us anything about Glasgow East. But it does suggest what tactical voting patterns to look out for where the SNP and Labour are in direct competition.

A few random findings from the poll:

Tory supporters are less Unionist than Labour supporters: although 73% of both groups would vote No in an independence referendum, 19% of Tory voters would vote Yes, compared to Labour's 13%.

More people oppose Scotland opting out of the BBC 6 O'Clock News than having Scotland set its own immigration policy or fiscal policy.

Respondents appear to want Scottish athletes to play in a British Olympic team, but don't want Scottish football teams to play in a British league.

Basically, apart from the questions on voting intention, the public appears to favour the status quo on just about any subject. I wonder if, when asked, YouGov members would rather it continue raining?

But some things can wake you up

(This post was almost called "**** me rapid!")

The SNP on 48%?! Whoa. The SNP 16 points ahead of Labour?! Yikes. The LibDems and Tories on 8% each?! Wow!

But.

Firstly, this asks about Holyrood, so everyone who is trying to divine the outcome of a Westminster Election on these figures, stop. There is no point.

Secondly, either the Daily Mail or Scottish Opinion have forgotten how the Holyrood voting system works. They have neglected to ask who voters would support in the Constuencies, or who they'd back on the Regional List.

Basically, this is a good poll to look at if you're a supporter of the SNP. It is a good indicator of reaction to the new SNP Government, with 40% of those polled expressing satifaction to some degree with the SNP, and only 12% voicing dissatisfaction. 25% expressed indifference, and 23% voiced uncertainty and/or ignorance.

But it does not, I repeat, does not, make a good signpost for the outcome of any election.

Holyrood Opinion Poll

The Sunday Herald carries details of a YouGov poll carried out for the SNP, which shows something of a honeymoon period for the new Government. On the Constituency Vote, the SNP take 38%, to Labour's 31%, the Tories' 14% and the LibDems' 12%. The Regional Vote puts the SNP on 33%, Labour on 28%, the Tories on 14%, the LibDems on 10%, the Greens on 7%, the SSP on 5% and Solidarity on 1%.

By my reckoning, the SNP would stay on 47 seats, with Labour losing 4 (42 seats), the Tories taking 17 seats (their total in the Election just gone), the LibDems losing 4 (to 12 seats). The Greens would gain 6 (8 seats), and the SSP would return to Holyrood with 2 seats.

So what does this mean in terms of who's in and out? In Central, the SNP would take Airdrie & Shotts, Cumbernauld & Kilsyth, East Kilbride and Falkirk East from Labour, so it would be goodbye to Andy Kerr. The LibDem's Hugh O'Donnell lose his seat as well. Pauline McNeill would lose Glasgow Kelvin to the SNP, and that would clear the way for an SSP MSP on the Glasgow List. The LibDems would actually lose Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross and even Ross, Skye & Inverness West to the SNP, but they'd gain a Highland List seat, along with the Greens. The SNP would gain Linlithgow and Midlothian, but Labour would pick up Edinburgh South, but the LibDems would pick up a Lothian Regional seat, and the Greens would win a second seat there. Labour would win back Dunfermline West, but the LibDems would gain a Regional Seat to compensate, and Labour would lose a further seat to the Greens. Aberdeen Central would go the way of the SNP, along with Aberdeen South, Nicol Stephen's Constituency. Labour and the Greens would pick up the SNP's Regional seats. The SNP would win Galloway and Upper Nithsdale, and Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale, with the Tories gaining an extra Regional Seat, and the Greens returning to the South. While in the West, the SNP would gain Dumbarton, clearing a space on the List for a Green.