Poll Shows Public Willing To Back Trump On Economy And Immigration

 

The charts above are from the CBS News / YouGov Poll -- done between November 19th and 22nd of a nationwide sample of 2,232 adults, with a 2.3 point margin of error.

The System For Legal Immigration Is Badly Broken

 

Republicans would like for you to believe the solution to our immigration problems is simple - just close the Southern border to the undocumented. But that is wrong. While stronger border control might be desirable, it is not the complete solution.

The truth is that our system for legal immigration is badly broken (as the two charts above show). The legal immigration system must be fixed. Until it is, controlling undocumented immigration is just a pipe dream.

Congress Should Cease Political Theater And Fix The Border

The following is part of an editorial by The Washington Post editorial board:

Washington needs to craft a better system to manage the mass migration of people seeking asylum in the United States, as migrants request U.S. protection at massive rates, knowing that the process for vetting their claims will drag out. That requires, above all, clear standards to determine who is entitled to protection that are enforced swiftly and certainly. Otherwise, they will not be credible. The bipartisan bill would have done some good in this respect. But its backers vastly oversold what it could accomplish.

Consider its provision to “shut the border” amid large surges of asylum seekers. There is a close precedent: Title 42, the rule deployed during the covid-19 pandemic, from March 2020 until May 2023, to summarily expel migrants on public health grounds without hearing their asylum applications. Trump adviser Stephen Miller said it could be invoked again to keep out “severe strains of the flu” or “scabies.”

Three million people were expelled under the rule. But it didn’t stop the flow. Border Patrol encounters with migrants increased sharply, largely because, under Title 42, they didn’t face consequences for repeat illegal entries, including criminal prosecution. So those kicked out would turn around and try again, hoping to sneak through undetected. Recidivists rose from 7 percent of encounters in fiscal 2019 to 27 percent in 2021. Unauthorized migrants whom U.S. agents detected but failed to catch — “gotaways” in Border Patrol parlance — also soared as migrants kept trying until they made it.

That was hardly the only glitch. Washington soon discovered it couldn’t apply Title 42 to everyone showing up at the border because often there was nowhere to send people back to. Overall, only 41 percent of those encountered at the border were expelled using the rule. The United States could expel single adults coming from Mexico and Central America, because Mexico would accept them. But countries such as Venezuela, Cuba and China would not take back their citizens. Only 8 percent of single adults not from Central America or Mexico got kicked out under Title 42.

Beyond political showmanship, “fixing” the border requires sending a credible signal around the world that the United States can enforce its rules. Today, it can’t. The country doesn’t have the agents to conduct interviews to find out whether migrants meet the standard to request asylum, the judges to rule on whether asylum is warranted, or enough beds to house migrants until these things are determined.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, for instance, reports 1.3 million immigrants scattered around the country who have been denied permission to stay and face removal orders. ICE cannot detain 1.3 million people — it has only 40,000 beds. Nor can it deport them quickly, even if their home country would take them back. It has 11 planes. . . .

To be fair, the bipartisan Senate deal included provisions to boost the credibility of the United States’ rules. It would have funded more than 4,300 new asylum officers and support staff, 100 additional immigration judge teams, 1,500 Border Patrol agents and customs officers, 1,200 ICE staff to help with deportations. It would have increased detention capacity and added deportation flights.

This, but at a grander scale, would offer the best shot at bringing the border under control. After the political skirmishing is done, lawmakers ought to work on a solution. 

Today's Immigrant Haters Are Repeating An Old Mistake

Donald Trump, and his Republican sycophants, are counting on demonizing immigrants to give them a win in November. Trump has said he wants to close the border and deport millions of undocumented immigrants - and sadly a small majority of the population seems to be on board with that.

Of course, he is only talking about nonwhites being excluded and/or deported. Trump has said he only wants immigrants from Northern Europe (i.e., white immigrants). That's racist - and it's also nothing new.

In 1882, 1924, and 1965 the same kind of sentiments were expressed, and resulted in laws that allowed whites to enter but severely restricted nonwhites. The purpose was to maintain the United States as a majority white country.

It didn't work in the past, and it won't work now. Currently, about 40% of the United States population is nonwhite. And by the middle of this century, nonwhites will be a majority of the population. That is scaring Republicans, because their pro-white policy stances mean that most nonwhites don't vote for them. They could change their policies, but they would rather try to shut down the border and deport nonwhites.

It wouldn't work anyway. Even if we completely shut down our souther border, we would still become a majority nonwhite country. That's because the nonwhites (both citizens and immigrants) are having more babies than the white population.

That is a big mistake. We need the immigrants - both those here already and those trying to come. There are hundreds of thousands of jobs going unfilled because citizens don't want them (because the are usually low-wage, dangerous, dirty, no benefit jobs. We don't need highly-skilled workers from developed nations. We need the desperate people needing those jobs, and those are the nonwhite persons from south of the border.

We also need the taxes those immigrant workers pay - both income and Social Security taxes.

We must reject the racist anti-immigrant policies of Trump and the Republicans. And we must stop worrying about what color the immigrants (and our fellow citizens) are. It's immoral and stupid, and it hurts our economy. 

Trump's Promised Agenda Would Increase Inflation - A LOT!

Donald Trump has been attacking President Biden on the economy. He says it is terrible and he would fix it. But he's lying. By any economic guideline, the economy is doing very well - unemployment is low (and has been for the last 23 months), the stock market is setting new record highs, job creation is strong (303,000 jobs last month), and GDP is good (better than any other developed nation), and inflation is falling.

It is inflation that has the public most worried. But Trump is proposing nothing that would reduce inflation. In fact, his two major proposals would increase inflation.

He has proposed putting a 10% tariff on imports. He would have you believe that foreign countries would pay the tariff, but that's not true. American consumers would pay the tariff in the form of higher prices on imported goods. And it would be hard for consumers to avoid paying Trump's new "tax". For instance, we import about 40% of vegetables and 60% of fruits from other countries. The tariff would drive up the price of groceries - the inflation most obviously felt by the public.

His other major proposal is to deport the millions of undocumented immigrants. This would not only cost a bundle, but it is likely to wreck the economy and increase inflation.

The nation is already at what is considered a full employment level by economists (since about 3% to 4% of the population is always quitting and changing jobs). And there are still thousands of jobs that need to be filled. They are mostly the low-paying, no benefits, and dangerous jobs that most U.S. citizens don't want. We need immigrants willing to fill those jobs.

And millions of immigrants are filling those kind of jobs already (paying billions in taxes, including Social Security payroll taxes). Deporting these workers would not only mean the government would have billions less in taxes (at all levels), but it would be disastrous for businesses already having trouble filling those jobs.

If those businesses can't find the workers to fill the massive amount of workers that would be lost, what will happen? They will produce less, and by producing less, prices will rise on the amount they are able to produce. The only option other than raising prices is to go out of business.

Trump's immigrant deportation proposal may sound good to the racists, xenophobes, and economically ignorant, but it would be bad for the economy. And both of his proposals would dramatically increase inflation - not decrease it!

The truth is that the economy is doing well, but it is also unfair to many poor and working class individuals. But Trump and the Republicans would not fix that. They cling to their failed trickle-down economic theory. They will not cure inflation or any other economic ill (like unfairness). They will only make things worse! 

The United States Needs More Migrant Labor (Not Less)

 From The Washington Post:

The plentiful supply of immigrants is one of the main reasons the U.S. economy has outperformed that of its peers in the affluent world since the eve of the pandemic, accounting for the entire growth of the labor force. Without immigrants, growth would have been slower and inflation higher. . .

The labor market is extremely tight around the country. In November, there were 9.5 million job openings but only 6.5 million unemployed workers, according to the latest data from the Labor Department. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is screaming about a national labor shortage. . . .

Immigrants already fill all sorts of jobs across the economy. Foreign-born workers took 30 percent of construction jobs in 2023. Sectors such as transportation and warehousing, accommodation and food services also employ a big share of immigrants. These industries need workers: Their job opening rates by the end of last year were around or above the national average. . . .

Helping ease migrant workers into the labor force might seem like a pointless suggestion given Republican unwillingness to contemplate anything that might help alleviate the pressure at the southern border. But granting them quick legal authorization to work and offering them a ticket to one of the many hot labor markets in both red and blue states would offer a win for migrants, employers and the American economy.

Trump's Big Lies About The Border And Immigration

Donald Trump thinks his best chance to be re-elected is to frighten voters about the border and immigration. He demanded that congressional Republicans kill a bipartisan Senate bill that would fix the border crisis to keep the issue for his campaign. But while the border does need some help, Trump is not telling the truth about it. Instead, he's telling a series of lies -- designed to frighten voters.

Robert Reich gives us the biggest lies Trump is telling about the border and immigration:

Here are Trump’s biggest lies, followed by the truth.

Trump claims Biden doesn’t want to stem illegal immigration and has created an “open border.”

Rubbish. Since he took office, Biden has consistently asked for additional funding for border control.

Republicans have just as consistently refused. They’ve voted to cut Customs and Border Protection funding in spending bills and blocked passage of Biden’s $106 billion national security supplemental that includes border funding. 

Trump blames the drug crisis on illegal immigration.

Bull. While large amounts of fentanyl and other deadly drugs have been flowing into the United States from Mexico, 90 percent arrives through official ports of entry, not via immigrants illegally crossing the border. Research by the conservative Cato Institute found that more than 86 percent of the people convicted of trafficking fentanyl across the border in 2021 were U.S. citizens.

Trump claims that undocumented immigrants are terrorists.

Baloney. America’s southern border has not been an entry point for terrorists. For almost a half-century, no American has been killed or injured in a terrorist attack in the United States that involved someone who crossed the border illegally.

Trump says undocumented immigrants are stealing American jobs.

Nonsense. Evidence shows immigrants are not taking jobs that American workers want. The surge across the border is not increasing unemployment. Far from it: Unemployment has been below 4 percent for roughly two years, far lower than the long-term average rate of 5.71 percent. It’s now 3.7 percent.

Trump claims undocumented immigrants are responsible for more crime in America.

More BS. In fact, a 2020 study by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, cited by the Department of Justice, showed that undocumented immigrants have “substantially” lower crime rates than native-born citizens and legal immigrants. Despite the recent surge in illegal immigration, America’s homicide rate has fallen nearly 13 percent since 2022 — the largest decrease on record. Local law enforcement agencies are also reporting drops in violent crime.

The GOP Shows It Doesn't Really Want To Fix The Border

Ever since Biden got in the White House, the Republicans have been complaining about the number of immigrants at the border. They have called it an "invasion", and demanded that the President and Democrats join them is "fixing" the border.

Now it looks like they are getting most of what they have been demanding. Senate Democrats and Republicans have worked out a compromise bill - a bill that "would reduce the influx of migrants coming through Mexico by tightening asylum rules, add new agents for processing and make it easier to send people back who don’t meet the criteria for entry."

It's not perfect, but no bill ever is. Both progressives and right-wingers are unhappy with it, which means it's probably a good compromise. But most important, it would actually do something to fix the situation at our southern border. And it looks like there are enough Republicans and Democrats to pass the bill in the Senate.

The problem is the House of Representatives, where extremist right-wingers are in control. These are the very people crying the loudest for something to be done about the border, and not they are the people who are opposing the bill (and likely will defeat it).

Why would they kill a bill that would give them most of what they have been demanding? 

Because they would rather have it as a campaign issue than to actually fix it. 

They can't campaign on abortion. They are losing big on that issue. They can't campaign on cutting Social Security and keeping the minimum wage a poverty wage. Most voters don't like the GOP stance on this issues. The economy is getting better every day -- with GDP strong and inflation going down. By Election Day, the economy will likely be even stronger. And they can't legitimately campaign on the deficit and debt, because during the last GOP administration they added a trillion dollars to that debt by giving huge tax breaks to the rich and corporations.

That leaves immigration. But if they get a fix to immigration, that leaves them with nothing substantial to campaign on. They would no longer be able to scare the voting public with lies about the border. So they have decided they would rather keep immigration as an issue than to actually fix the problem.

This tells us a lot about the current Republican Party -- especially the firebrands in the House. They are not in office to fix problems. They are there to seize power, and to save their own jobs. They care more about themselves than the country.

The Five Biggest Republican Lies About Immigration

With the GOP blunder banning abortion, the clownish year they spent controlling the House, and an improving economy, the Republicans are left with only one issue for the 2024 election -- immigration. And they are doing their best to scare voters by telling telling some outrageous lies about it.

Robert Reich gives us the five biggest lies about immigration that Republicans are telling:

Here are Trump Republicans’ five biggest lies about immigration, and the truth.

 

1. They claim Biden doesn’t want to stem illegal immigration and has created an “open border.”

Rubbish. Since he took office, Biden has consistently asked for additional funding for border control. 

Republicans have just as consistently refused. They’re voting to cut Customs and Border Protection funding in spending bills and blocking passage of Biden’s $106 billion national security supplemental that includes border funding. 

2. They blame the drug crisis on illegal immigration.

Last Wednesday, at the southern border in Texas, Republican House Speaker Michael Johnson claimed “America is at a breaking point with record levels of illegal immigration. We have lethal drugs that are pouring into our country at record levels.”

Rubbish. While large amounts of fentanyl and other deadly drugs have been flowing into the United States from Mexico, 90% arrives through official ports of entry, not via immigrants illegally crossing the border. In fact, research by the conservative Cato Institute found that more than 86% of the people convicted of trafficking fentanyl across the border in 2021 were U.S. citizens.

3. They claim that undocumented immigrants are terrorists.

Johnson also charged that “312 suspects on the terrorist watch list that have been apprehended — we have no idea how many terrorists have come into the country and set up terrorism cells across the nation.”

Baloney. America’s southern border has not been an entry point for terrorists. For almost a half-century, no American has been killed or injured in a terrorist attack in the United States that involved someone who crossed the border illegally. 

Johnson’s number comes from government data showing that from October 2020 to November 2023, 312 migrants — out of more than 6.2 million who crossed the southern border during these years — matched names on the terrorist watch list. It’s unclear how many were actual matches and whether the FBI considered them national security threats (the watch list includes family relations of terrorist suspects, many of whom are not considered to be involved in terrorist activity).

Republican Representative Mark Green, chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, said that FBI “Director Wray admitted before my committee the other day … that with the border wide open and a war in Israel, Hamas can just walk right in. That’s the director of the FBI. He fears for his own agents. It’s clear this is intentional.”

Alarmist rubbish. At that November 15 hearing, after Green asked Wray whether people on the terrorism watch list could be among those who entered the country without detection, Wray replied that there was no way to know. When Green then asked whether Wray could guarantee that Hamas wasn’t among them, Wray said, “What I can tell you is that our 56 joint terrorism task forces are working their tails off to make sure that they suss out and identify potential terrorist suspects, whether they’re on the watch list or not.”

4. They say undocumented immigrants are stealing American jobs.

Nonsense. Evidence shows immigrants are not taking jobs that American workers want. And the surge across the border is not increasing unemployment. Far from it: Unemployment has been below 4 percent for roughly two years, far lower than the long term average rate of 5.71 percent. It’s now 3.7 percent. 

5. They claim undocumented immigrants are responsible for more crime in America. 

More baloney. In fact, a 2020 study by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, cited by the Department of Justice, showed that undocumented immigrants have “substantially” lower crime rates than native-born citizens and legal immigrants. A recently published study in the American Economic Journal — analyzing official data from 2008 to 2017 on immigration, homicide, and victimization surveys — found “null effects” on crime from immigration.

 

Notwithstanding the recent surge in illegal immigration, America’s homicide rate has fallen nearly 13% since 2022 — the largest decrease on record. Local law enforcement agencies are also reporting drops in violent crime. . . .

Do we need to address our border situation? Yes — which Biden is trying to do. But we need to do so in a way that treats migrants as humans, not political pawns.

 

Trump and his enablers want us to forget that almost all of us are the descendants of immigrants who fled persecution, or were brought to America under duress, or simply sought better lives for themselves and their descendants.