A curious set of games this weekend as the visiting team is favored in three games and the fourth one is a pick'em.
First, here's
a look back at what we predicted for the divisional order of finish and playoff teams entering the season.
We managed to get two right in the NFC, the Giants and Vikings. Considering the Giants are the only repeat NFC playoff team, we'll take it. In the AFC, we got half the teams correct with the Chargers, Steelers and Colts, although we had the Colts winning the AFC South.
I had the Giants winning the Super Bowl and will stick with that, although I doubt they'll be playing the Chargers, but you never know.
For the season we went 132-117-8, capped of with a 10-5-1 mark in
Week 17.
Since both Saturday games are on NBC, The Olbermann Rule is in effect from approximately 4 to midnight eastern time.
SATURDAYFalcons -2 CARDINALS: No team in the playoffs looked worse in December than the Cardinals, but since they're at home we figure they don't get smoked. Still, they can't run and are vulnerable against the run, a lethal combo. You might think Atlanta should be worried with a rookie QB on the road, but Matt Ryan isn't a typical rookie and has been running a pro offense for five years already. Falcons have had little national exposure this year, so a lot of folks will get a good look at Ryan and Michael Turner.
Falcons 34-27Colts E Chargers: The fourth meeting the past two seasons between these two, so there aren't any secrets, an margin was greater than four points, San Diego's 28-24 win in the divisional round last season. The Colts looked miserable early this year but have run off nine straight wins and Peyton Manning today won the NFL MVP. Still, Chargers are rolling, LT looks healthy and Philip Rivers is playing with a chip on his shoulder. Don't be surprised to see overtime here.
Colts 31-28SUNDAYRavens -3.5 DOLPHINS: Miami has been a nice rags-to-riches story but it ends here. A few reasons: Baltimore was a league best 12-3-1 against the spread, they beat the Fish 27-13 already in Miami this year and Miami plays with little margin for error while just 8-8 ATS. They've coughed up the ball the fewest times in the league, but Baltimore lives for the turnover and makes you pay for it. Ravens can pound it out and will do just enough to advance.
Ravens 17-13Eagles -3 VIKINGS: Minnesota staggered to the finish line in a bad division while Eagles are rolling. Always like the hot team in this situation. Travaris Jackson is barely serviceable at QB and after destroying Tony Romo last week Philly must be salivating for a crack at him. The only way I see the Vikings winning is if Adrian Peterson goes for about 200 yards. Good luck with that with the Eagles playing nine guys in the box daring Jackson to beat them. Seems even Minnesota fans are dubious, as they can't even sell out this game. One more tidbit: Vikings a miserable 6-10 against the spread.
Eagles 24-10