Chart Of the Day "Today´s Rally vs Rally 1929/1930"

For a daily dose of excellent "ANTI SPIN" i highly recommend to subsribe to the free daily update from David Rosenberg.

Wer die momentan wohl beste tagtägliche Analyse frei Haus geliefert haben möchte der sollte sich hier registrieren lassen. David Rosenberg unterscheided sich nicht erst seit seinem Wechsel von Merrill Lynch zu Gluskin Sheff wohltuend von den üblichen Verdächtigen....

H/T Clusterstock

This is from another Rosenberg piece via Mish

Rosenberg also points out that the 46% rally in 101 days is unmatched dating back to 1933. I suppose the rally could continue given the 1933 rally lasted 249 days taking the stock market up 172%. However, I would not recommend playing for it.

> Be careful if you´re still long this market...... The risk/reward ratio isn´t quite "favourable" right now..... If you´re considering to short this market i agree with Jesse ( even if it is very tempting) .....

> Denke man sollte sehr vorsichtig sein wenn man noch immer long ist...... Für meinen Geschmack ist das Chance/Risikoverhältnis wenig vorteilhaft und wie ich finde stand es sogar selten schlechter als dies momentan der Fall ist ..... Für alle die mit dem Gedanken spielen short zu gehen empfehle ich den regelmäßigen Besuch der Seite von Jesse.....

UPDATE:

More realistic stuff from Rosenberg What Growth is the S&P 500 Pricing In? via Mish including the not so unrealistic chart 3 Stages Of A Bear Market .

Passend zum unten genannten Clip der nachfolgende Link von RosenbergWhat Growth is the S&P 500 Pricing In? via Mish der einen wie ich finde nicht unwahrscheinlichen Marktverlauf ( siehe 3 Stages Of A Bear Market ) beschreibt....




Mish sums it up....

Rosenberg suggests there will be no recovery without the consumer. I suggest there will be no recovery in consumer spending, discounting of course "free money" programs like "cash for clunkers".

Of course this all depends on the definition of "recovery". At best, I think we have a "Recoveryless Recovery" before the economy slips back into a double or triple dip recession. Regardless, the stock market is priced for perfection while the odds of perfection are close to zero.

I agree.... Especially when you add charts like Zero 10 Year US Job Creation to the mix.....

Hätte es besser nicht formulieren können.....Gilt besonders dann wennn man sich folgenden Chart ( siehe Zero 10 Year US Job Creation ) vor Augen führt....

Chart Of The Day "Depression-Era Bear Market Rallies"

You can read my take on the current rally here.....

Meine Einschätzung zur aktuellen Marktlage kann man hier nachlesen.....

via Chart Of The Day
Many investors continue to look to the early 1930s for some insight into the current economic/stock market environment. While there are significant differences (global economy, credit default swaps, TARP, FDIC, etc.) between the current environment and that what occurred in the early 1930s, there are also many similarities (bank failures, bankruptcies, severe market declines, etc.). For some perspective on the current stock market rally that began on March 9th, today's chart illustrates duration (calendar days) and magnitude (percent gain) of all significant Dow rallies that occurred during the 1929-1932 bear market (solid blue dots).

For example, the bear market rally that began in November 1929 lasted 155 calendar days and resulted in a gain of 48%. As today's chart illustrates, the current Dow rally (hollow blue dot labeled you are here) is above average in both duration and magnitude relative to the average 1929-1932 bear market rally (hollow red dot).

Compared to the current rally, only one 1929-1932 bear market rally was greater in both magnitude and duration and that was the first 1929-1932 bear market rally that began in November 1929.

> Make sure you also read A Tale of Two Depressions & Mega-Bear Quartet for another excellent comparison......

> Für einen weiteren erstklassigen Vergleich der aktuellen Lage mit der um 1930 herum bitte unbedingt A Tale of Two Depressions & Mega-Bear Quartet die Aufmerksamkeit schenken.

Chart Of The Day "Dow Vs Gold"

The following chart was buried in the comments from my previous post on gold (Gold’s Post-Bubble Performance In The UK, US And Japan. ). I think this perspective on the valuation of gold deserves "deserves" a sperate post. Further blogging activity will be light until 2009

Der nachfolgende Chart war in den Kommentaen zum letzten Goldposting ( Gold’s Post-Bubble Performance In The UK, US And Japan. ) vergraben. Denke der ist so aussagekräftig das das ich Ihn nochmal gesondert poste. Meine Blogginaktivität wird über die Feiertage bis Anfang 2009 minimal sein.

Chart Of The Day
How significant is this bear market? It all depends on how you measure. When measured in US dollars, the Dow currently trades 39.5% off its October 2007 record high. However, when measured with that other world currency (gold), the picture is actually more dismal. To help illustrate the point, today's chart presents the Dow divided by the price of one ounce of gold. This results in what is referred to as the Dow / gold ratio or the cost of the Dow in ounces of gold. For example, it currently takes 10.5 ounces of gold to “buy the Dow.” This is considerably less that the 44.8 ounces it took back in 1999.

When priced in gold, the US stock market has been in a bear market for the entire 21st century.

nikkei vs sp500 chart

for the investors in europe the gain in the nikkei would be 36% and the sp 30% less (currency losses)
für uns in europa reduziert sich der gewinn um 36% bzw. 30%. (währungsverluste)

dank/thanks to http://www.chartoftheday.com/

Today, the Dow made yet another record high. While the Dow and other major US indices (i.e. S&P 500, Nasdaq, etc.) continue to rally, today's chart provides a more global perspective.

Today's chart illustrates the current trend in large-cap Japanese stocks as represented by the Nikkei (blue line). Like their American counterparts (light gray line), Japanese stocks remain in the midst of their three-year uptrend. It is interesting to note, however, that the Nikkei has outperformed the S&P 500 since 2003. It pays to diversify. Stay tuned...