New Willie Soon paper finds significant solar influence on climate

Harvard astrophysicist and climate scientist professor Willie Soon and colleagues have a new paper in press which examines surface temperatures in China and finds significant warming in the low-CO2 1920's and 1940's, and a significant Sun-climate link for the instrumental record from 1880-2002. The IPCC dismisses the role of the Sun on climate by only considering small changes in total solar irradiance, ignoring large changes in solar UV (which is capable of penetrating the ocean surface to cause heating unlike IR from 'greenhouse gases'), and ignoring secondary effects (e.g. the cosmic ray theory of Svensmark et al).

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
Article in Press, Accepted Manuscript - Note to users

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doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2011.07.007 | How to Cite or Link Using DOI

Variation in surface air temperature of China during the 20th century

Willie Soon^a, , , Koushik Dutta^b, David R. Legates^c, Victor Velasco^d and WeiJia Zhang^e

^a Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA

^b Large Lakes Observatory, University of Minnesota-Duluth, Duluth, MN 55812, USA

^c College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, USA

^d Departamento de Investigaciones Solares y Planetarias, Instituto de Geofisica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Ciudad Universitaria, C.P. 04510, Mexico

^e Department of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

Received 21 March 2011;  

revised 20 July 2011;  

accepted 25 July 2011.  

Available online 3 August 2011. 

Abstract

The 20th century surface air temperature (SAT) records of China from various sources are analyzed using data which include the recently-released Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project dataset. Two key features of the Chinese records are confirmed: (1) significant 1920 s and 1940 s warming in the temperature records, and (2) evidence for a persistent multi-decadal modulation of the Chinese surface temperature records in covariations with both incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere as well as the modulated solar radiation reaching ground surface. New evidence is presented for this Sun-climate link for the instrumental record from 1880 to 2002. Additionally, two non-local physical aspects of solar radiation-induced modulation of the Chinese SAT record are documented and discussed.

Teleconnections that provide a persistent and systematic modulation of the temperature response of the Tibetan Plateau and/or the tropospheric air column above the Eurasian continent (e.g., 30°N-70°N; 0°-120°E) are described. These teleconnections may originate from the solar irradiance-Arctic-North Atlantic Overturning Circulation mechanism proposed by Soon (2009). Also considered is the modulation of large-scale land-sea thermal contrasts both in terms of meridional and zonal gradients between the subtropical western Pacific and mid-latitude North Pacific and the continental landmass of China. The Circum-global Teleconnection (CGT) pattern of summer circulation of Ding and Wang (2005) provides a physical framework for study of the Sun-climate connection over East Asia. Our results highlight the importance of solar radiation reaching the ground and the concomitant importance of changes in atmospheric transparency or cloudiness or both in motivating a true physical explanation of any Sun-climate connection. We conclude that ground surface solar radiation is an important modulating factor for Chinese SAT changes on multidecadal to centennial timescales. Therefore, a comprehensive view of local and remote factors of climate change in China must take account of this as well as other natural and anthropogenic forcings.

Highlights

The 20^th Century surface air temperature (SAT) records of China from various sources are analyzed using data which include the recently-released Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project (20CRv2).

Two key features of the Chinese records are confirmed:

(1) Significant 1920s and 1940s warming in the temperature records

(2) Evidence for a persistent multi-decadal modulation of the Chinese surface temperature records in covariation with solar radiation

New evidence is presented for this Sun-climate link for the instrumental record from 1880 to 2002. As well, two non-local, physical aspects of solar radiation-induced modulation of the Chinese SAT record are documented and discussed. We conclude that solar radiation provides demonstrable forcing for Chinese SAT changes on multidecadal to centennial timescales.