The Survival Podcast Interview

I met Jack at the Self Reliance expo. He’s a very nice guy and we quickly got along well.
You can hear the interview here:
http://www.thesurvivalpodcast.com/episode-781-fernando-ferfal-aguirre-on-surviving-an-economic-collapse
Let me know what you think and drop a comment here or at the Survival Podcast. I just saw that people are already leaving comments and asking for another interview.
Take care,

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FerFAL

What’s of value right when the economy goes to hell?

As Greece and Italy go to hell in a hand basket, down here in the Banana Republic of Argentina we’re seeing a déjà vu of the 2001 collapse. The government imposed a “green” corralito by which through one excuse or another the American currency is being unofficially but effectively banned. The US Dollar was the way in which Argentines protected their savings from the even more volatile funny money that is the Argentine peso. With the new restrictions, before buying dollars you have to be authorized by the AFIP, the Argentine version of the IRS. Through a complex system that not even themselves understand, they check how much money you earn, what are your expenses, how much you may have saved based on that, and only then do they somewhat estimate what you should be allowed to buy. There’s people that own big companies that aren’t even allowed 50 USD.

To close the corralito even further the banks themselves came up with their own set of rules for the purchase of dollars, simply making it impossible to buy the American currency. The only way to buy dollars then is the black market where the dollar reaches 5.50 or 6 pesos per dollar, against the official rate of 4.26 pesos per dollar. In the black market caves and “arbolitos” (arbolito=tree, named based on them selling/buying the green USD) there’s been several reports of SIDE agents (our CIA) closing them down, and arresting both customers and owners of the joints. Why the arrests aren’t done by the police, I have no idea. This would be the time to stay put and wait until things settle before trying to buy USD.
So yes, these are interesting times to say the least. Lots of rumors, lots of desperate people out there.  People that were just about to travel and needed dollars but cant buy them, people about to close business deals in dollars but cant get the money either. USD accounts being closed, Pesos accounts being closed as well out of fear and the too vivid ghost of 2001. Interest rates have doubled in banks in the last few days and everyone is just waiting, and I guess that the key word in today’s article. Waiting, staying put to see what happens. What happens when the economy is about to collapse, or just collapsed? Everyone waits. I saw the exact same thing 10 years ago. No one buys anything or sells anything unless they really have to.

What’s on high demand during times like these?? Nothing.  Nothing at all. All the survival BS about this and that “being worth its weight in gold!!” its proven yet again to be false. At least during the peak, the initial days, everyone stays put.
The food you buy at the supermarket, you go to work and school, pay your bills, but other than that you don’t spend a buck unless you have to. The only thing I do notice is that regarding imports, if someone needs something that was imported in USD and they can buy it in pesos, they do so quickly speculating the USD will keep going up in price. Keep that in mind and close deals quickly if you think a devaluation would work against you. A tell tale of what happened was seen a few months ago when imports stopped rolling in.
Other than that what people really want is dollars, the only way in which you can escape the peso. Gold and silver being marketed in USD are also being restricted. I posted about this being a good way to save what you had in an Argentine forum, I hope at least some people took advantage of that loophole during the couple days that it lasted.

The lesson here is simple: For Argentina its USD, that’s what we’ve always gone to during complicated times and that’s what the government always restricted right before everything goes to hell. For US its going to be gold and silver, that your version of what the dollar means for us. When the government starts looking for ways to directly or most likely, indirectly restrict the purchase and sale of precious metals, that’s when you know the S is just about to hit the fan.
The Argentine government just created a new department, specifically to hunt down “financial criminals”, you know, old ladies that try to buy a Benjamin or two.
Little lessons from Argentina boys and girls, please don’t EVER allow this sort of thing to happen in your country.
FerFAL

“That’s not a knife, THIS is a knife!”

Hi Ferfal,
I’m down here in Buenos Aires at the moment and the other evening a
rough looking kid, probably from a villa, approached me and threatened
to stab me if I didn’t give him money. At that point I pulled out my
vaquero grande and he nearly pissed his pants and took off.
No one was hurt. The encounter couldn’t have gone better. I just
wanted to thank you for the excellent knife recommendation.
Saludos,
Ian

Hi Ian, glad it helped. The Vaquero is not only effective, its also pretty intimidating. While I wouldn’t count on intimidation alone, it is a factor that helps, and when it does it may prevent the fight entirely which is great. I had a somewhat similar experience with two guys in a train, just pulled the knife out and they took off. They didn’t have a gun visible and in the South American summer they only had worn off t shirts and shorts, and no visible gun print. (if a bad guy doesn’t pull a gun right away, most likely he’s got nothing)
There was this robbery attempt caught on a security camera some time ago, of a guy with a knife trying to mug another person with a bag. The one with the bag pulled this huge facon knife from his bag, about 10” long. The bad guy had this little pocket knife. The “victim” slapped him around with the flat of the blade. The video clip had no sound but you could guess he was either insulting him or telling him to take off. The bad guy tried to man up but given the Crocodile Dunde moment he took off.
I like the new Vaquero. I don’t own one yet but I can tell the grip has been much improved. The plain edge version is more practical too. The curved edge will take a bit more skill to sharpen but I just love that “s” shaped blade and Nogales clip point.


Cold Steel Large Voyager Vaquero Folder with Plain Blade
The new Espada looks good too. The original one was too expensive for me but the new one is more affordable and practical.

Cold Steel G-10 Espada Knife (Medium)



FerFAL
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What Happens When you get Shot Part 3

Given the positive feedback I got, I did a final video wrapping it up and including a few final concepts.




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FerFAL

Advice on Creidt Card Debt

Hi FerFal,
I’m new to the prepping scene and have found the info on your site to be invaluable. I fear that we here in the US are in for a rude awakening sometime in the not so distant future. My question is about credit card debt. Most of the financial “sock puppets” in the media keep advising people to pay down debt as a way to avoid a personal financial crash landing when our country’s economy implodes. But my thought is why not run up as much debt as you can to get what you need now while the dollar is still worth something? When hyperinflation hits, you’ll be further ahead on the supplies, AND you’ll be paying back your debt with worthless money. When the SHTF, I doubt there will be any bill collectors knocking on your door anyway, as everyone would probably be more concerned with their own families and personal situations to bother. I’m not advising people to commit financial fraud, but it’s not only encouraged to into debt, it’s our only way of life in the modern world so why not just use the system to beat the system. Besides, in America, there’s no such thing as debtor’s prison. The worst that could happen is that your credit rating is destroyed, but I’d rather have a full supply of what I need than some “magic number” attached to my name. Anyway, thanks for all you do, It is very much appreciated. Kit

Thanks Kit,
Your question is kind of tricky. The common sense approach would be that being in debt isn’t something you want, and it is correct to assume that during unstable financial times you don’t want the extra concern of having yet another expense. I also recommend as one of the first steps towards financial collapse preparation to reduce expenses as much as possible, sticking only to the basics. This works well on many levels: You have more disposable income each month, more room space for adjustment in case of inflation peaks or unexpected expenses, you can try saving some money and the peace of mind that comes with knowing you managed to cut down your fixed expenses some helps on so many other levels.
Yet at the same time what you are saying is also correct to some degree. I don’t agree with just destroying your credit history. In my opinion committing that sort of financial suicide is like playing all your assets to a number in the roulette. You are betting at a certain type of end of the world situation that is extremely unlikely to occur, even if the economy does collapse. We’re already in a crisis, this might go on for five or ten years more without anything ever really collapsing.
What we did see here was people buying import items or getting dollars right before the devaluation or the freezing of the accounts. If I know gold and silver are going to go “up” in price, maybe buying some with my credit card isnt a bad idea. In some of these cases timing is everything and it is like winning in the casino to some extent for people that aren’t in the know of the internal managements of a country’s economy.
A good example would be what happened just yesterday with the dollar in Argentina, what I explained in the previous post in this blog.  Say, if you bought 10.000 USD with your credit card worth 4.26 pesos each, today you have those same dollars but worth 4.8 or 5 pesos each, maybe more. Same principle applies for devaluation and inflation.
What I would suggest considering would be a more moderate approach. I wouldn’t go that much into debt because it’s a risky bet, but if your finances are in good shape you may play your odds a bit, especially on some departments. Food for example. You’re going to be eating it anyway. Say you buy two years worth of food with credit and pay it throughout the following 12 months. Indeed, you’ll be saving 20% or 30%, maybe more on your food expenses. You’ll have to eat anyway, thus spend the money for it, and you already know food prices will keep going up. If you have the storage space for it that ‘s a no brainer unless  your financial situation is delicate to begin with.
What you suggest is true to some extent but I suggest moderation.
Take care,

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FerFAL