TEOTWAWKI vs Modern Survivalism

REPLY: What are you preparing for?

Anonymous said...
If I knew exactly what to prepare for there wouldn’t be any questions. Where are you going to go? The EU seems like an unwelcome place to us gun owners, and I don‘t think North Americans would fit in well. NATO being absorbed by Russia doesn't seem like it would make the EU a nice place. Didn't Spain have just as bad of a housing bubble and price crash as California did with more to come? That doesn't speak well for Spain's future. The EU never came across as an area plentiful with jobs either. Where do you run to avoid a worldwide hyperinflationary depression?

Life here in the Midwest U.S. has not really changed one bit yet, except for the CCTV everywhere and not quite as many jobs, there are still jobs to be had. I guess most who prep, do so for things like expected and threatened quarantine lock downs, farmers revolts and strikes due to the up coming animal ID program, national revolution and martial law or succession and nullification, or $50 per gallon gas prices and or hyperinflation - all stopping the trucks from rolling in and filling the store shelves, and worse case scenario, everything happens at once.

When Argentina collapsed the world was at the peak of good times and “wealth” was easily had by quite a number, now the whole world faces economic depression, things may work out just a little different. It seems as if much of the world will have no wealthy customers to draw from like Argentina did in 2001-2007.

Health wise, just eat right, be in shape and perhaps save some money so healthcare isn’t needed. For thousands of years people got along just fine without health insurance. Works for some, it’s not perfect, and if everyone paid cash for doctors visits, things might be cheaper like they were in the days before Medicare and such drove prices higher. Many doctors are doing cash only business even now with lower prices being the result. Become, or marry, a nurse or doctor would be a nice move too I think.

Teotwawki - not the end of the world, just the end of the world “as we know it” - I like how you say it’s already happened we just don’t know it yet, like the bullet has left the barrel, it just hasn’t gone to the bone yet. The economic worldwide depression and US economic fiat Dollar collapse is already baked into the cake.

Me, I’m not exactly preparing for any one single thing, I’m just trying to be prepared to overcome most anything that comes my way (all without being MacGyver or obsessively irrational) to me, in this area, that’s a normal way of living, it’s why I keep a spare tire and a toolbox in the trunk of the car, some people don‘t do so or even know how to change a flat. Like the colonist on the frontier who managed to survive in spite of hoard attacks, not everyone was killed off or run off, but yes, some were wiped out. Like the early pioneers on the covered wagon trails who pushed on and did so without any modern conveniences, some survived. To be able to do so, not necessarily to actually do so, just to be able to if it‘s required. I’m not rich enough to be able to do much else, I know no one in the EU, and Argentina and the southern cone *was* supposed to be a place to run and hide at, but your dispelling that myth pretty quick. It sort of seems like there is no where to go, no far blue mountains to escape to, so it may be that the only option left is to take a stand where you’re at, and whatever happens, happens.

With a list like above and tornadoes, floods, severe winter snow or ice storms with dangerous temperatures, short term power failure, nuclear power plant and industrial and military chemical plants and railways nearby, and earthquake possibility it’s pretty hard to choose one or be prepared for all of them. I never wrote it down before, it looks like I live in a dangerous place, but - nothing has happened to me so far. Infamous last words eh?

“Have limited M&M’s, will travel.”

Thanks Annon for the thoughtful post. A few considerations to keep in mind.
There’s always a balance. Once again, it has happened before. As US and EU go through hard times, other countries counterbalance and do better. Granted, its not as good as US at it’s best, but others take advantage of the opportunity.
After WWII, Argentina was easily a top 5 country(some say top 3), even started developing its early nuclear power with project Huemul. The project wasn’t successful an supposedly it was all a scam, jet curiously enough just a few years later we had the first running nuclear power plant in Latin America, plants that are still running, legacy of those golden years.
There’s always places to run, but lets just call it relocate. I’ll be meeting next week with a couple Americans that have done just that, people that already feel comfortable with moving around according to circumstances. Argentina maybe wouldn’t be my #1 choice, but its better than freezing and doing nothing. As much troubles as we have, the person that in USA wouldn’t be able to live because of his poor income may do ok here simply because of the exchange rate. Before losing your home, you might as well rent it and move here to take advantage of the 1 to 3.8 exchange rate. I accept Uruguay or even Brazil might be better choices than Argentina though, even if we have better gun laws.
Regarding pioneers and pre modern medicine time, keep in mind that back then people died around late 30’s, early 40s and infant mortality rate was in the street puppy range.
Expect a very short life without modern medicine, and unless you reproduce like a rabbit (like they did back then) you’ll be lucky if you have kids that reach adulthood.
About the myth of moving to Patagonia, the end (location wise) of the world, the myth I wanted to dispel was regarding some very distorted views some people have, mostly real estate locators.
”Move to Argentina and live like a king” “Move to Mendoza, the ultimate survival retreat!”
As we say here, its not gold everything that shines.
The exchange rate is good, yes, but life is still pretty expensive here. A report not long ago showed how it can be more expensive to live in Bs As than to live in Miami. As for the inner provinces, its’ cheaper to live there, San Luis is specially cheap, but they have lots of problems, many you wouldn’t even think of in a place like USA, like medieval times politics where the governor rules like a king. So while it can be done, its not some lost paradise.
But if I have no other choice? Heck yes, I’d relocate.
Keep in mind that while relocating requires money, its much cheaper than the half a million dollars or more a full blown end of the world retreat would cost, and it would be a more realistic choice in a worse case scenario.
Of the people I know that relocated here, except for a retired doctor that moved to Patagonia and spent a nice amount of green, most did it without spending a fortune.

FerFAL

What are you preparing for?

(side note: I saw a few more reviews on my book in Amazon, all 5 starts. Thanks a lot guys, means a lot and the comments are just humbling. I’m so glad that people are finding my book useful. It saddens me to see America go through this, but it feels great to know I’m in some way helping people. Again, thanks)

What are you preparing for?
This is of course the “alpha” question for anyone considering survival and preparedness.
One of the things I mention in my book is making a list. Simply make a list of what’s most likely to happen happens to you, your most likely and most dangerous threats(risk assesment).
Health is always around the top of the list for all of us. We’re all human after all. First of all, your body, how fit are you. Your weight is under control?

I ‘m just back from the cardiologist. Everything ok. I’m 30, don’t smoke, don’t drink, go to the gym,(eat healthy too, little salt, try not to eat too much bread) but its still good to keep track of that. What kind of medical coverage do you have? I pay for one that is kind of expensive but covers everything my family will ever need, no limit. We also have EU citizenship, which means we can go to Spain in a worst case scenario and have full medical cover there as well.
No matter what, your family’s health is top priority.

Don’t plan accordingly and bad things happen: An accident happens, you get sick, and you don’t have means to deal with that because while you planned for a meteor crash you didn’t plan for xxxx disease (pick the one that worries you the most) . Sucks man, really does, but which one is more likely?
There has to be a logic behind your prepping.
OK, so you take care of your body, plan to have a good health care service, you get insurance in case something happens to you, your family needs the money to get by. The basics. Air, shelter, food and water. Filters and face masks, camping gear, sleeping bags, stored water, water filters and other ways of purifying water, canned food, and other staples with a long term shelf life. Money. Money makes the world go around. Always has always will in one way or another. What if you don’t have a job any more? What if you lose your source of income? The basics keep you going here as well. You save money, you look into starting a side gig. Working from home part time. While skills are nice, don’t plan on being the post nuke town’s black smith. Get real, and remember that as honorable as hard work is, it usually has little to do with making money. Making money is all about being smart at running a business. Getting fired, rampant inflation, needing money one way or another is a reality many survivalists are now suffering and hadn’t planned for it before. Money was supposed to be poor tinder and worse toilet paper… WSHTF…
Then you have natural an man made disasters, and depending on your area these may be closer or further away from the top of your list. Storms, fires, floods, earthquakes, being close to nuclear power stations or chemical industries.
Be methodical but above all be realistic about your preparedness. The mindset is still there, getting rid of the sheeply mentality, but still be rational.

“Oh, but I prepare for the worst case scenario! Therefore I prepare for everything! “
No dude, that’s not how it works. Worst case scenario? End of the world, what are you really preparing for?
If you want to prepare for nukes falling, I’m with you man, I’ll even help you dig the fallout shelter if we’re neighbors.

“No you don’t get it FerFAL, I’m preparing for the TEOTWAWKI!”
Oh, what is the end of the world as we know it? Remember, try keeping it real. Is it MadMax, is it something you saw on videogames, exactly what is it? Because if you’re worrying about a total economic collapse, that’s not the end of the world. Check our history and find many examples.
If you’re preparing for another world war, I’m still with you: It has happened before and may happen again. What do you need to prepare for that? M&Ms. Not the chocolate but mobility and money ( Hey I liked that M&M=mobility and money FerFAL© :-) ) You need to have the means to move to a distant country and stay there for as long as you need, probably the rest of your life. While a second location nearby to bug out to works for a flood or fire, for something of that caliber you need to move out of the country, even out of the continent maybe if it threat to go nuclear.
A farm will do you no good, no matter how well set it is, or how awesome you solar powered setup is.

“No FerFAL , I’m talking of something else! The kind you prepare for by having a fully equipped retreat where you fight the hoards from. You know, that kind of thing”
…Ok… but exactly what are you preparing for?
You want to grow your own food? At least some of it? Great idea, its healthy for you and a great hobby, by all means do it. It’s of course not the best way to go economically speaking, ask any farmer if they are getting rich if you don’t trust me, but an orchard and some veggies sound great. Two thumbs up.
Backup generator and battery bank? Solar panels? Yes of course. And an energy efficient house saves money and makes things easier during a crisis. 100% self sufficient isn’t going to happen. No matter what, you always needs supplies, etc, but it doesn’t hurt to work to be as self sufficient as possible.

Moving to the middle of nowhere and spending 500.000 USD on stuff would rock. Bill Gates probably has several such retreats, I know Ted Turner and other guys have several in Patagonia.
If you want to do it give me a call, I’d love to help you spend money and buying stuff.
Now, can you do it? Even if you can, can you maintain that situation, living a gas tank away from serious job opportunities? Maybe you can.
Now don’t kid yourself. As fun and as great as it would be, what are you really preparing for?
“No, but..”
I’ve got news for you: The world as you knew it already ended. You just don’t know it yet. Crime will sooner or later be like nothing you’ve ever seen before. You’ll feel a real, urgent need to increase your security habits and find means of self defense. You don’t do stupid mistakes anymore, you'll see you can't afford those anymore. People will be job hunting for months, even years. Competing for a job will become an art form of its own.
Politically speaking, the governmnet will take the opportunity to spread its web, controling everything they can... for your own good of course...because of the crisis, you know.
Young adults will be moving back with mom and dad and living in the basement if necessary, even if they already have families of their own. No more spending money needlessly, vacations are something precious and few will be able to afford them. Even when you can, leaving the house empty for long periods of time? You'll know better than that, and take several precautions when doing so.

Tough times folks, but not the kind of end of the world many were expecting, is it?
If you’re worried about long term social unrest check out how that has worked out in the past. Can it even be done? Can you fight off the hoards for YEARS from your retreat? Check the white farmers in Rhodesia. Learn from people being exterminated for religious or ethnic reasons in various wars. How many stayed and fought the hoards?… They died like flies people. Run and live another day. Stay in your foxhole and sooner or later they’ll get to you. Do not kid yourself. If that’s what you really are preparing for, as unlikely as it may be, don’t fool yourself.
More examples? Check the American colonial period. The farmers and settlers living in the border, fighting the natives. How often did they win when attacked, even when armed better than the attackers.
Learn from the conquistadors, how often did they have their settlements whipped out completely biy people that didn’t even master the technology of steel?
It wasn’t long ago, here in the south America, a couple hundred years ago when the natives still controlled much of the Patagonia. You didn’t bug in against the raiders. You had an escape tunnel. Even for rich folks, money and resources were spent on building a tunnel, some that even went for miles, so as to escape to safety.
As nice as it is to live in the woods or some of the wonderful places in contact with nature, don’t fool yourself.
Live wherever you want, life is too short to do otherwise, but don’t fool yourself and be realistic about your survival and preparedness planning.


Fernando “FerFAL” Aguirre.

Reply: TEOTWAWKI vs Reality Based S&P

Blackeagle said...

DocOutlands:
"I figure if you can go about your normal routines on a daily basis and not realize nukes fell/zombies arose/the Rapture occurred/aliens invaded/bird flu killed everyone, then you've done your job."

While I'm sure your tongue was firmly in cheek when you wrote this, I think it illustrates what I'm talking about. A lot of folks seem to focus on apocalyptic scenarios to the exclusion of more likely possibilities. By definition, the apocalypse doesn’t happen very often. Natural disasters and economic crises happen all the time, and are happening around the world right this very moment.

This focus on TEOTWAWKI scenarios tends to focus people on a particular type of solution: a fortified retreat out in the boonies somewhere. If you believe that cities will turn into burned out wrecks ruled over by gangs of murdering cannibal looters, there’s not much point in building up a six month food supply in the basement of your suburban home. In turn, this kind of all or nothing attitude seems to discourage a lot of people from making preparations right now and lead them towards ‘armchair survivalism’. They have detailed plans for the fortified retreat they’re going to build someday, but don’t have well balanced preparations in case a hurricane or an earthquake hits today.

For folks that do have a well stocked rural retreat, on the other hand, there seems to be a tendency to believe, “If I’m prepared for the apocalypse, I’m prepared for anything.” As FerFAL has pointed out in other posts, in a situation like the one in Argentina living out in the countryside can be more dangerous than living in the city. This is a big part of what really clicked with me when I read his older posts because it tallies very well with what I’ve read about the horrible things that have happened to people on isolated farms in South Africa and Zimbabwe (both recently and during the Bush War when it was Rhodesia). An economic collapse is not going to be a great time to be a small farmer.

This focus on TEOTWAWKI also tends to get people who are interested in preparedness painted as tin foil hat types. Gabe Suarez recently threatened to get rid of the Disaster Preparedness subforum of Warriortalk “because of all the doom-gloom, we're all going to die, negativism”. Doug Ritter has a big disclaimer on the Equipped to Survive Natural Disasters & Large-Scale Emergencies subforum prohibiting any discussion of “economics, politics, or sociology”. This sort of thing tends to create a big gulf in places to talk about preparedness online. There are places like the ones I’ve mentioned where talk doesn’t go much beyond a bug-out-bag or 72 hour kit, and there are places to discuss building a fortified retreat to survive the apocalypse, but there’s a dearth of places to discuss something in between. The bug out bag places discourage discussing longer term planning to keep the TEOTWAWKI folks away and the TEOTWAWKI folks tend to be rather dismissive of anyone who isn’t interested in preparing for the apocalypse. That’s a bit part of why I was so excited to read FerFAL’s stuff. It really seems to fit right in that middle ground I was looking for.

March 10, 2009 10:24 AM



Thanks Blackeagle for the well articulated response.
I’m posting it here too because I feel the same way, even thought sometimes I can’t put it into words as well as you did.
Preparing for TEOTWAWKI , scenarios where civilization as we know it no longer exists, is very different from preparing for what happens all the time and will continue happening through history.
Some think that by preparing for the worst possible scenario you cover everything. Not so.
What’s the point of investing in real estate or valuing the proximity for good schools and hospitals if you think that it will all soon cease to exist?
Why prepare financially? Why expect to keep on needing to pay taxes, medical and insurance, and worry about having money to do so?
The two situations have a few things in common but big essential differences.
I don’t dare say what will happen or not. If I had that power I’d be buying lots of lottery tickets.
But I do prefer to plan for something that, event though bad, is well within the odds of possibility and has already happened before.

FerFAL