September 2015 IPI: Steady Recovery

Monday’s industrial production figures paint a picture of recovery (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted; 2000=100):

Manufacturing output has been steady for most of the year, but mining output (read: oil & gas) had been on a downtrend. More worrying to me was the sharp drop off in electricity generation – that pointed to underlying weakness in both business and consumer demand. Unless this was a dead cat bounce, September’s figures suggests whatever malaise hitting both sectors is now over.

Assessing July

I’m back from my usual Ramadhan blogging break, and my, aren’t there lots of things to comment on. This will be a kind of omnibus blog post, covering some of the developments over the past month.

2Q2015 GDP Growth

A funny thing happened with the change in national accounts base year to 2010 – the economy all of a sudden got a lot harder to forecast. The usual indicators no longer seem to matter as much – for example, MIER’s confidence indices appear to have totally decoupled from GDP – which makes forecasting growth more than a little bit more difficult. IPI and trade remain good predictors, but their standard deviations have doubled and the forecasts are suggesting two completely different pictures of the economy.

March 2015 Industrial Production

Well, well, well (log annual and monthly changes; 2010:100):

Dec 2014 Industrial Production: Smokin’

Back in 2011, I remember the budget coming out and the complete disbelief at the government’s 2012 growth forecast. From economists to the man on the street, nobody thought growth would be anywhere near 5%, much less exceed it (this was right after the Greek bailout). Hell, I was wrong too – I thought 5% was achievable, but a little on the optimistic side. In the end, the economy hit 5.6% GDP growth for 2012, almost right in the middle of the government’s initial forecast.

Deja Vu.

Nov 2014 Industrial Production

Last week’s industrial production numbers points to a still resilient domestic economy (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):

July 2014 Industrial Production: A Bad Start To 3Q2014

Yikes (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted; 2000=100):

June 2014 Industrial Production: Hold On To Your Hats, Folks!

The rocket has blasted off (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted; 2000=100):

Data Releases for July 2014

I’m back from my usual Ramadhan blogging sabbatical. It’s been a bittersweet month – the economy is chugging along better than I ever hoped for and the German demolition of Brazil in the World Cup semifinals was a hoot to watch, but then there was the staggering blow of the MH17 tragedy and the incomprehensible Israeli invasion of the Gaza strip on the very same day. Geo-political risks appear to be increasing, while the global economy remains on a fragile footing, the US recovery notwithstanding.

April 2014 Industrial Production: Steady As She Goes

The numbers aren't as spiffy as the out-of-this-world export growth numbers, but they’re pretty respectable (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):

Industrial output rose by 4.0%, coming off last month’s 4.3% in log terms, with a pickup in mining helping to offset a pullback in manufacturing and electricity production.

March 2014 Industrial Production

The March numbers that came out on Monday didn’t show a full picture of health, but did confirm that 1Q2014 growth is going to be pretty decent (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted; 2000=100):

February 2014 Industrial Production

Last week’s IPI numbers gave me a headache – it’s part of another rebasing exercise, this time to 2010, which required a bit of work to splice – but things are looking up (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted; 2000=100):

December 2013 Industrial Production

Yesterday’s IPI report confirms the acceleration in economic growth at the end of last year (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):

November 2013 Industrial Production

Yesterday’s industrial production numbers paint a picture of returning growth (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):

October 2013 Industrial Production

Industrial output appears to be moderating a little (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):

September 2013 Industrial Production

The September numbers aren’t nearly as pretty as the improvement in external trade (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted; 2000=100):

August 2013 Industrial Production

Too good to last? The IPI has come back down to earth (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):

July 2013 Industrial Production

Something is in the wind. US Purchasing Managers Indexes zoomed up in June, and lo and behold, Malaysia’s IPI is following suit (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):

April 2013 Industrial Production: Green Shoots

After some fairly unenticing numbers in 1Q2013, industrial production in April showed some signs of life (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):

March 2013 Industrial Production

The latest IPI data shows production growth bouncing back (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted; 2000=100):

February 2013 Industrial Production

I’ve been skipping a lot of data releases this month because work, and because of course with the elections a month away, there are more important topics to look at.

Nevertheless, the economy waits for no man, and this development is interesting enough to warrant a look (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):