Economic Despair

Showing posts with label foreclosure. Show all posts
Showing posts with label foreclosure. Show all posts

The great 2008 walkway is well underway. There is no shame in foreclosure anymore.

Foreclosure used to be a last resort, something that hard-pressed homeowners would scrimp and plead to avoid. But as the subprime lending crisis sweeps up millions of borrowers nationwide, some are deliberately choosing foreclosure as an early option.

As their home values tumble and their mortgages rise, these "walk away homeowners" decide to cede their houses to their lenders.

"It's throwing good money away after bad" to pay an escalating mortgage on a home that's plunging in value, said Army Sgt. 1st Class Nicklaus Skaggs of Vacaville. He and his wife, Tishara, stopped paying their mortgage in February. They signed up with a new company called You Walk Away to help guide them through the multi-month foreclosure process.

The couple paid $455,000 for their Vacaville home almost three years ago, shortly after Nicklaus Skaggs returned from a year in Iraq. Now the home's value has dropped to $290,000. Their adjustable-rate mortgage, which started at about $3,000 a month, has reset twice, climbing to about $4,000.

They have no regrets about their decision."I feel like the pressure has lifted off my shoulders; before I was trapped," said Nicklaus Skaggs, 40, an earnest man who plans to retire from the Army in two years, after completing 20 years of service.

Why does every growth rate in the housing market have to be massive. First, large price growth numbers, then large price falls, and now a 60 percent increase in foreclosures.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Foreclosure filings nationwide jumped 60% in February compared with the same month last year, but they decreased slightly versus January, according to a report released Thursday.

RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosure properties, said 223,651 homes got hit with foreclosure filings last month, which include default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions. 46,508 of those were lost to bank repossessions, which more than doubled over last year. The report also indicated that foreclosure filings in February fell 4% compared with January, similar to a 6% decrease that occurred during the same time-span in 2007.

...in just one year. There seems to be no end to the crash.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Foreclosure filings nationwide soared 57% in January over the same month last year - another indication that the nation's housing woes are deepening.A study released Tuesday by RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosure properties, showed that 233,001 homes were affected, 8% more than in December. Of that total, 45,327 homes were lost to bank repossessions.

The only good news was the comparatively modest month-to-month increase in total filings. "It could be that some of the efforts on the part of lenders and the government - both at the state and federal level - are beginning to take effect," said James Saccacio, RealtyTrac's chief executive.

"The big question is whether those efforts are truly helping homeowners avoid foreclosure in the long term, or if they are just forestalling the inevitable for many beleaguered borrowers," he said.

Many mortgage-assistance efforts simply give borrowers a chance to pay off missed payments, rather than lowering monthly payments, which effectively just delays foreclosures. But now lenders claim they are restructuring more mortgages by lowering or freezing interest rates and reducing balances. These solutions are much more likely to help people save their homes.

Nevada, California and Florida had the highest foreclosure rates in the nation. During the housing boom, all three states recorded big price run-ups, and saw a large proportion of homes sold to investors. In Nevada, one of every 167 homes was in some foreclosure stage last month.

It just keeps getting worse....

Bloomberg - Defaults on privately insured U.S. mortgages rose 35 percent in November to a record, an industry report today showed, adding to evidence the U.S. housing slump is deepening.

The number of insured borrowers falling more than 60 days late on payments jumped to 61,033 last month from 45,325 in November 2006, according to data from members of the Washington- based Mortgage Insurance Companies of America. The missed payments, often a prelude to foreclosure, represented a 2.9 percent increase from October.



.....at least back in July 2007. Wonder what he think now?

For US home builders, the current market is "challenging". In PR-speak, the word "challenging" means "total, unmitigated disaster".

Today, confidence among U.S. home builders crumbled this month to the lowest level in 16 years. The home builder sentiment index declined to 24 this month. We have to go back to January 1991 to find it at a lower reading.

Home builders certainly have plenty of problems out there to get them depressed. Inventories are high, sales are declining, prices are crashing, prospective buyer traffic is falling off and interest rates will stay at their current elevated level for months to come. Moreover, all those incentives, which have understated the true extent of the price crash,just aren't working anymore.

Things are so bad, it must be a challenge for US home builders to even get themselves out of bed in the morning.

Almost a million foreclosures were filed during the first half of this year; a rise of 56 percent compared to the same period last year. Sub prime borrowers accounted for 58 percent of those foreclosures. This is only the beginning. In the coming months, a wave of adjustable rate mortgages will reset at significantly higher interest rates, and the foreclosure rate is going to explode. With this impending flood of foreclosures, the US housing market will seize up.

Where are the foreclosure epicentres? Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate in June. It had a shocking one filing for every 175 households, more than four times the national average of one per 704. Sunny California had the second-highest rate, with one filing per 315 households. It also took the price for the most filings overall - 38,801. In fact, the Golden state has taken that dubious title for sixth months in a row.

Colorado had the third-highest rate with one foreclosure per 317 households. Florida was fourth with one per 347, followed by Arizona with one per 383, Ohio with one per 403 and Michigan with one per 420.

When will it end? No time soon, that is for sure.

Is the following report too alarmist? Perhaps not. The subprime crash is rippling out and infecting the wider financial system. The danger is that higher defaults in the subprime market will lead to a banking crisis along the lines of the savings and loan crisis in the 1980s. All the ingredients are there already; poor asset quality, exploding foreclosure rates, liquidity tightening, and regulatory failure.

(UK Telegraph) The United States faces a severe credit crunch as mounting losses on risky forms of debt catch up with the banks and force them to curb lending and call in existing loans, according to a report by Lombard Street Research.

The group said the fast-moving crisis at two Bear Stearns hedge funds had exposed the underlying rot in the US sub-prime mortgage market, and the vast nexus of collateralised debt obligations known as CDOs.

"Excess liquidity in the global system will be slashed," it said. "Banks' capital is about to be decimated, which will require calling in a swathe of loans. This is going to aggravate the US hard landing."

Charles Dumas, the group's global strategist, said the failed auction of assets seized from one of the Bear Stearns funds by Merrill Lynch had revealed the dark secret of the CDO debt market. The sale had to be called off after buyers took just $200m of the $850m mix.

Abandoned by fellow banks, Bear Stearns has now put up $3.2bn of its own money to rescue one of the funds, a quarter of its capital.

Lombard Street’s warning comes as fresh data from the US National Association of Realtors shows that the glut of unsold homes reached a record of 8.9 months supply in May. Sales of existing homes slid to an annual rate of 5.99m.

The median price fell for the 10th month in a row to $223,700, down almost 14pc from its peak in April 2006. This is the steepest drop since the 1930s

The subprime implosion is far from over. Here we have a story about some subprime mortgage backed assets that need to be sold, but no one wants to touch. What happens next; prices adjust downward, meaning that the yield on these types of assets rise. Sooner or later, these rising yields will feed into retail mortgage costs.

The subprime market is slip-sliding away.....

(MSN Money) The giant market for securities backed by US subprime mortgages was thrown into turmoil on Wednesday as lenders struggled to sell more than $1bn of assets seized from two Bear Stearns hedge funds that suffered heavy losses on subprime bets.

The complex securities being auctioned are rarely traded and early attempts to sell the collateral met with mixed results. The prospect of the "fire sale" knocked down prices for similar mortgage-backed assets and sent a key derivative index for the market to record lows.

The rout highlights the risks investors take when they buy illiquid and hard-to-value securities. Fire sales in times of stress can trigger dramatic changes in pricing in such markets, perhaps leading other holders of assets to mark their values down and triggering demands for additional collateral from lenders.

Kathleen Shanley, analyst at research firm Gimme Credit, said the unravelling of the Bear Stearns funds was "at best an embarrassment for Bear Stearns, and at worst it threatens to have a ripple effect on valuations across the subprime sector".

The sales began on Tuesday and were set to continue on Wednesday. Among the assets for sale by lenders Merrill Lynch and Deutsche Bank were investments in so-called collateralised debt obligations, or CDOs, which pool securities that can include mortgage-backed bonds, corporate bonds, leveraged loans and sometimes other CDOs. Many of the CDOs the Bear Stearns funds invested in were backed by risky mortgage securities, which have suffered heavy losses and ratings downgrades in recent weeks.

One mortgage investor said that while the CDO assets for sale carried high credit ratings, they were backed by such risky mortgages as to be "junk in investment-grade clothing".

Merrill Lynch was set to auction $850m of such assets on Wednesday after rejecting a Bear Stearns offer to buy them directly, while Deutsche Bank was also planning to sell $350m of CDO assets seized from the funds. JPMorgan began selling seized collateral on Tuesday, but yesterday halted its sale and then made a private deal with Bear Stearns to eliminate its exposure to the fund.

Paulson thinks that the housing correction is "at or near the bottom". That is a sure sign that the housing market has still got a long way to go before things stabilise.

WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The US housing market correction is 'at or near the bottom' but the fallout from problems in the subprime mortgage market will likely continue, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said. Paulson said losses related to foreclosures in the subprime market were to be expected in light of the 'major' housing correction the US has gone through. At the same time, he believes the risk in this area is 'largely contained,' and poses no threat to the overall economy.

Today, Bloomberg provided a neat summary of the state of today's housing market.

June 20 (Bloomberg) -- The worst is yet to come for the U.S. housing market. The jump in 30-year mortgage rates by more than a half a percentage point to 6.74 percent in the past five weeks is putting a crimp on borrowers with the best credit just as a crackdown in subprime lending standards limits the pool of qualified buyers. The national median home price is poised for its first annual decline since the Great Depression, and the supply of unsold homes is at a record 4.2 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Confidence among U.S. homebuilders fell in June to the lowest since February 1991, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index released this week. Housing starts declined in May for the first time in four months, the Commerce Department reported yesterday. New-home sales will decline 33 percent from 2005's peak to the end of this year, according to the Realtors' group, exceeding the 25 percent three-year drop in 1991 that helped spark a recession.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm, and Bear Stearns Cos., the largest underwriter of mortgage-backed securities in 2006, said last week that rising foreclosures reduced their earnings. Bear Stearns said profit fell 10 percent, and Goldman reported a 1 percent gain, the smallest in three quarters. Both firms are based in New York.

The investment banks, insurance companies, pension funds and asset-management firms that hold some of the U.S.'s $6 trillion of mortgage-backed securities have yet to suffer the full effect of subprime loans gone bad, said David Viniar, Goldman's chief financial officer. Subprime mortgages, given to people with bad or limited credit histories, account for about $800 billion of the market.

Homebuilding stocks are down 20 percent this year after falling 20 percent in 2006, according to the Standard & Poor's Supercomposite Homebuilding Index of 16 companies. Before last year, the index had gained sixfold in five years.

The average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.74 percent last week, up from 6.15 percent at the beginning of May, according to Freddie Mac, the second-largest source of money for home loans. That adds $116 a month to the payment for a $300,000 loan and about $42,000 over the life of the mortgage.

The recent increase in mortgage rates is the biggest spike since 2004. The change means buyers can afford 8 percent less house than they could five weeks ago, Kiesel said.

In addition to their primary mortgages, homeowners had $913.7 billion of debt in home equity loans in 2005, more than double the $445.1 billion in 2001, according to a paper by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and James Kennedy on equity extraction issued by the Fed three months ago.

About a third of that money, extracted as home values surged 53 percent from 2000 to 2005, was used to buy cars and other consumer goods, according to the paper. The interest rate on those loans doubled to 8.25 percent in 2006 from 4 percent in 2003.

Homebuyers who got an adjustable-rate mortgage, a so-called ARM, in 2004 have seen their rate climb by about 40 percent. That's enough to add $288 to the monthly payment for a $300,000 mortgage. The average adjustable rate last week was 5.75 percent, an 11-month high, according to Freddie Mac.

A Fed survey of senior loan officers issued in April said that 45 percent of lenders had restricted ``nontraditional'' lending, such as interest-only mortgages, and 15 percent had tightened standards for the most creditworthy, or prime, borrowers. More than half had raised standards for subprime borrowers, according to the survey.

Subprime mortgages have rates that are at least 2 or 3 percentage points above the safest so-called prime loans. Such loans made up about a fifth of all new mortgages last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington.

The median U.S. price for a previously owned home fell 1.4 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the third consecutive decline, according to the National Association of Realtors. Before the third quarter of 2006 prices hadn't dropped since 1993. The quarterly median may dip another 2.4 percent in the current period, the Chicago-based industry trade group said in its June forecast. Measured annually, the national median hasn't dropped since the Great Depression in the 1930s, according to Lawrence Yun, an economist with the trade group.

The share of mortgages entering foreclosure rose to 0.58 percent in the first quarter, the highest on record, from 0.54 percent in the final three months of 2006, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report last week. Subprime loans going into default rose to a five-year high of 2.43 percent, up from 2 percent, and late payments from borrowers with poor credit histories rose to almost 13.8 percent, the highest since 2002.

Prime loans entering foreclosure increased to 0.25 percent, the highest in a survey that goes back to 1972. That's a sign that even the most creditworthy borrowers are being squeezed, Roubini said.

Moody's investor services finally picked up on the reality confronting the US mortgage market; it downgraded 131 subprime mortgage investment products. It also put 237 under review.

The downgrades will inevitably make it harder for lenders to finance subprime mortgages. It should push mortgage rates up, and put further pressure on an already deeply distressed housing market.

To put it another way; it is just one more nail in the coffin.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Moody's Investors Service said Friday it downgraded 131 mortgage investments backed by loans issued to people with weak, or subprime, credit histories. More people who took out subprime mortgages, especially adjustable-rate loans issued over the past two years, have been defaulting on their monthly payments as their mortgages reset to higher rates. That, in turn, makes mortgages pooled into securities and sold to investors a riskier proposition.

Moody's said it also put 237 securities on review for further downgrades, including 111 of those already downgraded Friday. The downgrades affects both investment-grade and below-investment grade debt, including securities that had been rated 'Aa', 'Aaa' or 'A' and below, Moody's said.

The ratings agency's action affects mortgage securities issued by companies including Bear Stearns Cos., Merrill Lynch & Co., Credit Suisse Group, First Franklin Corp., and IndyMac Bancorp Inc.

Moody's said the downgrades were a result of a higher-than-expected rate of defaults among second mortgages issued to subprime borrowers last year. Moody's said the loans "were originated in an environment of aggressive underwriting."

These are desperate days for mortgage lenders. Interest rates are up, foreclosures are skyrocketing and losses are mounting. Overall, it is a difficult environment to generate more businss.

Therefore, it shouldn't be too surprising if we hear that mortgage brokers pushing out scare stories about failing lenders. In this particular story, GMAC are caught putting out a letter warning people about the financial frailties of their rival - Washington Mutual.

For mortgage brokers, it is always about the commission. If borrowers stop refinancing, brokers stop earning. With rates rising rapidly, things do look rather bleak. Therefore, scare tactics such as these are the last resort of an industry in free fall.

However, few of us will be outraged. It is what we have come to expect from the American housing industry.


NEW YORK (Fortune) -- During the height of the real estate bubble, mortgage lenders were often shameless in how they pursued new business. Whether it was jacking up hidden closing costs to make loans appear cheaper than they were or using absurdly-low teaser rates on option- or interest-only ARMs to get customers in the door, lenders made owning a home seem easy.

Too easy. Fast forward a couple years, and mortgage defaults are skyrocketing. Foreclosures were up 90 percent in May alone, according to RealtyTrac. And lenders are finally realizing that coaxing consumers to borrow more than they can really afford is, as business strategies go, just plain dumb.

What's a mortgage marketing maven to do? Well, bereft of their teaser rates, the marketing whizzes of at least one major lender apparently decided that scare tactics are the way to go.

Just consider the direct-mail solicitation I recently received from GMAC Mortgage. The letter was addressed to me as a "Washington Mutual Customer"- I have a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage with WaMu - and it began ominously: "You've probably read about it in the newspaper or seen it on the nightly television news. Many mortgage lenders all across the country are heading for financial trouble because they have made too many questionable loans. Some lenders may even go out of business. And what will become of the people who trusted those lenders if that happens?"

Then came the kicker: "Allow us to help you refinance your mortgage with the rate and term that best suits your needs."

GMAC's pitch is absurd on so many levels I barely know where to begin. First off, the letter implies if you have a conforming mortgage, as I do, that you could somehow lose your mortgage should your lender go bankrupt. That's simply untrue. Sure, there could be some servicing glitches should your loan be acquired by another bank, but that's more an annoyance than a genuine financial safety issue.

US homebuilder confidence is at a 16 year low. The industry isn't short of misery; rising inventory, falling sales, rising defaults, falling profitability, rising interest rates, and falling prices. Who could hold a happy face after that litany of problems?

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. homebuilders fell this month to the lowest since February 1991 as interest rates climbed and delinquencies surged. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of sentiment declined to 28 this month from 30 in May, the Washington-based association said today. Readings below 50 mean most respondents view conditions as poor. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast the gauge to stay unchanged this month.

Homebuilders including Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. are losing money as they cut prices to stem a slide in sales amid stricter standards for getting mortgages. Builders have scaled back projects to work off bloated inventories, a sign housing construction will weigh on growth for the rest of the year, economists say.

The median forecast of 35 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for the index to stay at 30. Predictions ranged from 28 to 32. The group's measure of single-family home sales fell to 29 from 31. The index of traffic of prospective buyers slipped to 21 from 22. A gauge of sales expectations for the next six months declined to 39 from 41.

Federal Reserve policy makers last month acknowledged that the housing recession will hold down growth longer than they had anticipated. At the same time, officials have kept their outlook for ``moderate'' growth in the overall economy as consumer spending gains and manufacturing accelerates.

Some reports in recent weeks pointed to reviving demand for homes. The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of applications for mortgages to purchase homes rose an average 5 percent in May from the prior month and was up 6 percent from a year ago. Purchases of new homes unexpectedly jumped in April by the most in 14 years from April, the government reported last month.

Still, a large stock of unsold homes means that builders are reducing their projects. Inventories in April equaled 6.5 months' worth of sales, down from a record high of 8.1 months' worth in March.

Building permits, which signal intentions of starting projects, fell in April to the lowest since June 1997. The Commerce Department may say tomorrow that housing starts fell last month to an annual rate of 1.473 million, from 1.528 million in April, according to the median forecast. The housing market also must deal with the burdens of rising mortgage rates and tighter lending standards.

Thirty-year mortgage rates at the end of May averaged 6.37 percent, rising further to an average 6.74 percent at the end of last week, according to Freddie Mac, the second-largest purchaser of U.S. mortgages.

The number of U.S. homeowners who face possible eviction because of late mortgage payments rose to an all-time high in the first quarter, led by subprime borrowers, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report last week. U.S. foreclosure filings surged 90 percent in May from a year ago, RealtyTrac Inc., which monitors foreclosures, said June 12. The failure of at least 50 subprime lenders, who make loans to consumers with poor or limited credit history, raised concern homes will be thrown back on the market as foreclosures rise.

From liar loans to FICO scores, the housing market is riddled with dishonesty. Things are so bad that you begin to sorry for the poor hapless mortgage brokers out there. Is there anyone out there that they can trust?

Here is one scam that needs to be stopped quickly. People with poor credit can boost their credit scores by linking up with people with good credit histories. The trick is quite straightforward; people with good credit histories attach people with poor credit histories onto their credit cards. Furthermore, the Internet is there, ready to match up the credit cripples with the people with beautiful FICO scores.

The scam has some interesting implications for the current foreclosure crisis. Suppose that a large number of low interest mortgages were extended to people who should have received high interest subprime loans on account of the poor credit history. Superficially, this might mean that these pseudo-high quality borrowers have a lower probability of default, since the interest on their loans is lower than it otherwise would have been.

However, it is more likely that these irredeemably irresponsible borrowers maxed out on their credit limits. They probably took out larger loans in the otherwise could have, leaving them just as vulnerable to default, regardless of their fake credit scores.

Will this have an impact on the fast imploding housing market? It comes down to a question of how many subprime borrowers infiltrated the quality mortgage market. One thing is for sure: mortgage brokers were not asking too many searching questions about default risk. Perhaps, we shouldn't feel so sorry for them after all.

(Washington Post, June 16) The days may be numbered for dozens of Internet-based companies that promise to quickly boost FICO credit scores by 200 to 300 points. Fair Isaac, the developer of the widely used FICO score, plans to introduce key changes designed to derail schemes that transplant high-quality credit card histories to the files of people with low FICO scores.

The credit-boost companies, easily found on the Web by searching for "credit trade line," claim that they violate no federal laws and are not seeking to defraud mortgage lenders. But mortgage industry groups, federal and state regulators, and credit industry leaders say the programs represent significant threats to the home lending system -- opening the door to fraudulent home loan applications.

Using a FICO-boost service, for example, a mortgage applicant with a history of late and missed payments and a FICO score in the 500s could puff up his or her score well above 700 and be eligible for the best interest rates and fees.

How could that happen? Check out the online pitch of one promoter: "Rent your credit and earn thousands," it proclaims. The company offers cardholders with sterling payment histories on cards with high balances "as much as $10,000 a month or more" simply by accepting unseen borrowers with poor credit backgrounds as "authorized users" on their card accounts for 90 days.

Although the add-on users receive no access to the credit card and cannot rack up charges, Fair Isaac's FICO model allows the cardholders' excellent payment histories to flow directly into the credit files of all authorized users on the card. The addition of the high-quality credit quickly raises the scores of any authorized users -- even though the add-on users may still be poor credit risks.



It isn't often that the Washington Post produces an alarmist article on the Housing Market. Over the last couple of years, the newspaper has earned the reputation for being the trade journal for the regions realtors. However, this story on the foreclosure rate certainly won't please many of their real estate advertisers.

According to the post, the foreclosure rate is running at historically high levels "The percentage of US mortgages entering foreclosure in the first three months of the year was the highest in more than 50 years." This is shocking stuff

The post also provided a nice graphic illustrating the key foreclosure numbers. And indeed, those foreclosure rates do little rather high.

If you find yourself squinting at the graphic, click on it and it will expand in another internet explorer window.

The Mortgage Bankers Association have just reported first quarter foreclosures data. Their numbers make grim reading. Foreclosures are now at record levels. The rate of loans entering the foreclosure process was 0.58 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, or more than one out of 200 loans. The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one- to four-unit residential properties stands at just below 5 percent of all loans outstanding in the first quarter.

Mortgage brokers, stung by a surge in defaults, are at last begining to think about risk. Suddenly, they have learnt the power of that long neglected word - NO. Yes, brokers are beginning to turn undesirable borrowers down. They should have been doing five years ago, but better late than never. Borrowers who can't pay back loans should not get loans. When they are turned down, they win (no trauma of foreclosure or bankruptcy) and the bank wins.

So lets here some more negative responses from brokers. It is what America needs right now.

June 13 (Bloomberg) -- Josh Tullis, who in his eight years as a senior loan officer rarely felt compelled to reject a first-time home buyer's mortgage application, is sending people away empty- handed in 2007. Tullis's latest clients are a married couple that banks ought to love. Between them they make $70,000 a year and they've been renting the same apartment for three years with zero late payments, he said.

Lenders won't approve them because they don't have enough money in the bank, said Tullis, Virginia sales director at A. Anderson Scott Mortgage Group in Falls Church. With mortgage companies cracking down due to rising subprime defaults, Tullis needs them to sock away two months of payments for the $500,000 townhouse in Fairfax. ``Six months ago, these folks might have qualified, a year ago, definitely,'' Tullis said. ``It's a lot, lot harder than it used to be for first-time home buyers.''

Subprime mortgage lenders have tightened credit guidelines so much they're squeezing about 500,000 first-time buyers out of the market, according to the National Association of Home Builders. A decline of that magnitude would reduce sales of new homes by 4 percent and sales of existing homes by 7 percent, and deepen the worst housing slump since the Great Depression.

I can't help laughing when I see stories like this one from Bloombergs. Bernanke thinks that tighter lending standards will delay the recovery in the housing market.

I prefer to see things the other way round. Lax lending standards along with expansionary monetary policy created the housing bubble. If the mortgage market had been properly supervised in the first place, the current housing crisis would have been easily averted. If the Fed had done its job properly, the housing market would have been appreciating at a steady 5 percent year. Housing would have been just another quiet sector of the economy.

Instead, housing suffered from an appalling chain of cheap interest rates, creating a speculative enviroment that led to a few unfortunate years of double digit appreciation. Mortgage lenders didn't care who received loans. The only criteria was whether they could sign the loan docs. What we see now is the clean-up following the party. Yes, "tighter lending" standards will "restrain housing demand". It will restrain demand from people who shouldn't be getting loans to pay for houses they can't afford.

Let's say it again. The simple fact is that the housing crash could have been easily prevented. All that was needed was prudent monetary policy and reasonable oversight of mortgage lenders.

June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said ``tighter'' lending standards for mortgages will ``restrain'' housing demand for longer than policy makers anticipated.

The Fed chairman said the housing slump hasn't spilled over into other parts of the economy and he maintained a forecast for ``moderate'' growth. Government and industry reports this month showed acceleration in job growth, manufacturing and personal spending and gains in services industries.

``The slowdown in residential construction now appears likely to remain a drag on economic growth for somewhat longer than previously expected,'' Bernanke said in remarks via satellite to a conference in Cape Town, South Africa. As subprime mortgage lenders make it tougher to get loans, that will ``restrain housing demand, although the magnitude of these effects is difficult to quantify,'' he said.

Fed officials have repeatedly cited housing as a threat to their forecast for faster growth this year. At the same time, they continue to view inflation as the biggest risk, keeping interest rates unchanged since last raising them a year ago. Economists and investors abandoned forecasts for a cut as signs of strength emerged in other parts of the economy.

``We have also seen a gradual ebbing of core inflation, although its level remains somewhat elevated,'' Bernanke said to the International Monetary Conference. ``Although core inflation seems likely to moderate gradually over time, the risks to this forecast remain to the upside.''

Minutes of the May 9 Fed meeting released last week noted that the housing recession would continue longer than officials had anticipated. By contrast, Fed officials in January cited ``tentative signs of stabilization'' in home sales.

Home building has fallen for six consecutive quarters, the worst slump since 1991. Residential investment also lopped almost a percentage point off of economic growth in the first quarter. Building permits in April fell to the lowest level in almost a decade, the Commerce Department reported last month. As defaults and mortgage delinquencies increased, lenders made it tougher to get loans.

April housing permits down; new home starts up. There is difficult choice here; which indicator more accurately reflects the true state of the housing market. The new home starts numbers are up only when compared to the previous months. Therefore, it is time to invoke the NAR excuse - the weather. Less rain in April relative to March artificially inflated the new home starts data. So don't worry folks, the housing crash continues.


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The battered housing market got another vote of no-confidence from builders last month as applications for new projects tumbled to the lowest since 1997, even as housing starts themselves edged higher.The numbers confirm other recent reports from home builders and real estate groups of a housing market that is still searching for a bottom and that is likely to get weaker before it picks up.

Housing starts rose to an annual rate of 1.53 million in April, according to the Census Bureau report, from the revised 1.49 million pace in March. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a slip to a 1.48 million pace in April.

But building permits, which are often seen as a measure of builder's confidence in the market, sank to an annual rate of 1.43 million in April from a revised 1.57 million in March. It was the lowest reading since June 1997. Economists had forecast a dip to 1.52 million