So When's The Real Budget?

From what I've read so far, 'trivial tinkering' is about as generous a term I could think of to describe what is, beyond all question, the most inept and irresponsible response to Britain's debt crisis that Labour could have managed, desperate as they are not to confront the consequences of Gordon Brown's economic car crash before the general election. We got the usual cowardly hammering of harmless drinkers and smokers, the usual mindless fuel duty increases (staggered, as if that matters during a devaluation) and the usual (from Labour, especially under Brown, but now under Darling) stealth tax increases, which are being deciphered from the small print by various sifters and sleuth bloggers as we speak.

The giveaways were pathetic too. Raising the stamp duty threshold to encourage first time buyers will have no such effect. It is, when put into perspective, a tiny tax break. Not being able to get a mortgage on decent terms, or a mortgage that any first time buyer with half a brain will know would become an unaffordable millstone with the first interest rate hike are the real problems. So, no help there. As for the attempt to woo the grey vote once more, well, it's nice for my folks to look forward to a winter fuel allowance again. But now that the worst of this winter is just about over, I can't see them being overly impressed with this straightforward bribe. They'll still have to stump up £2000+ a year for gas and electricity, a constant struggle for pensioners - who are hardly excessive users. See? Pathetic. And where were the cuts? Inadequate and slipped in under the radar.

In reality, therefore, this was a white noise budget with no clear purpose and no clear goal. I note with great pleasure that Cameron was especially thorough in his demolition of it, of Labour's latest ruin of Britain and of the man responsible for it all, James Gordon Brown. Five more years of this? You need your head examined if you seriously want that.

But if you really are as determined as I am to see the end of Brown and his ultra-corrupt government, but can't vote for Cameron for whatever petty reason, then just remember: If you do that then you will split the vote and you will get five more years of Brown. And you'll only have yourself to blame. Putting prejudice before country is as sure a way of letting these useless wreckers back in by default as actually voting for them.

I would have thought this burnt-out budget of a burnt-out government would have provided reason enough to wake up, smell the coffee, vote Tory and finally get them out.

Then, fifty days after that happy day, we'll have the real budget. You know, a Conservative budget that will begin the process of reversing the catastrophic damage long years of a Labour government has caused to the United Kingdom. Again.

Inflation Spike - The Double Dip Begins

No one likes hindsight very much, but it really should have gone without saying in the first place that when you print 200Bn quid of unreal money just to keep going month to month, are running a record structural deficit and have public debt exposure approaching 1.5 Trillion, then you are running the severe risk of diluting your currency's value to the point where it begins to hurt the entire economy - and hurt a lot. With inflation having spiked by 1.0% in one month, which is the largest jump on record, hitting 2.9% just as the first signs of recovery were (allegedly) being detected, then no amount of spin can disguise the fact that Britain is in big, big trouble.

There is, of course, some suspicion that this is all part of Brown's 'plan' (if that is what it can be called): bankrupt the country now in order to buy some kind of election victory and then inflate away all the debt regardless of the huge amount of damage that that will do to the prosperity of private citizens, especially those who are wealth creators, self-sufficient (prudent), and savers. It will also impact heavily on home ownership, of course - which is why I suppose there has been all the clamour on the left for a return to council housing recently. All this is naturally a socialist's wet dream - and it is precisely the total basket-case calamity that Thatcher had to confront in 1979.

But if it really is that ruinous old bastard Brown's intention to turn back the clock to the 70s, with low or no growth, high debt, high taxes and high inflation (aka: stagflation), then even someone as self-serving and cynical as he is (beyond any shadow of a doubt) is in for a severe shock. First, it won't work because people are on to him: no amount of attempted vote-buying is going to win him the mandate he has never, ever deserved, particularly if his 'plan' is to catapult Britain thirty-five years into the past, back into the economic dark ages (although some might say he has already done exactly that).

Second, it won't work because of the sheer scale of the crisis. It is unprecedented, relatively speaking, not just in the history of Britain, but the history of any major economic power, in terms of the scale of the exposure to a possible economic tempest. QE, as Fraser Nelson (one of the very few MSM journalists who have been warning us about the inflation crisis following swiftly on from the damp squib that was deflation) has said time and again, is uncharted territory. It's a nuclear option; a highly experimental and untested method of dealing with a crisis the nature of which is most likely not completely understood. It is also a one-shot deal. If, as increasingly seems to be the case, Brown and Darling have, in fact, completely failed to plan for rapidly rising prices (or, rather, a rapidly deteriorating purchasing power parity), then whatever stimulated (fake) recovery they were hoping for will be choked off in short order. The danger of a double dip recession, that little old I (for one) starting talking about last May for heaven's sake, is now not so much a danger as a certainty. But while it's a familiar story so far as Labour is concerned, what is unfamiliar this time, as we roll our eyes muttering 'here we go again,' is that we will be entering the second recession with literally less than nothing left in the kitty. What must follow, regardless of Labour's lies, and thanks to their terrible economic mismanagement across the board, is a rapid fall in the overall standard of living. The rest of the world will not prop us up for much longer - and we have no more bullets in the gun.

Third, Brown's plan to inflate away Britain's debt won't work for the simplest reasons of all - the real-world economic ones. Let us say that by some satanic twist of fate Brown won the election, thus enabling him to continue to get away with QE for a bit longer (and that can be measured in weeks now rather than months), what are the eonomic realities that will hunt him down and expose him for the utter fraud and socialist economic illiterate that he is?

The simplest point is about levels of public spending. (I know you know this but writing it down helps me to get it clear in my own noodle!) As inflation continues to rise and money is worth less (expressed as price and wage hikes), people can buy less, economic activity is hampered because businesses are starved of cash and crippled by ever-increasing pay demands, and, of course, rising interest rates (as the BofE tries desperately to control the collapse) and, following on from that, the social security bill increases as a result of rising unemployment, an increase in income support costs (as more and more people fall into the poverty trap) and, as the spiral gathers pace, the subsequent increase in debt further devaluing the currency - leading to more inflation and even higher interest rates. Nothing personal, you see. It's just how the world works - no matter what your politics!

Point is, do not believe any of the propaganda from any of the politicians, but especially the socialists (many of whom quietly wish this calamity upon the nation for their own, peverse political reasons), because the signs are that these economic realities are already here.

There is nowhere for Brown (fortunately) or us (sadly) to hide any more.

A massive, unprecented, 1% inflation spike in one month is just the start of it. Batten down your financial hatches folks. This is going to be one hell of a storm.

Eyes Right

Official Government spending for 2008-9. Pdf here.









Guido, while analysing the impact of Darling/Mandelson's outflanking of Brown and neutering of Balls, reaches some very interesting conclusions about the implications for Cameron.

"Peter Mandelson’s speech on Wednesday was overshadowed by events, parts of it sounded more right-wing than anything Cameron has said in years...Mandelson sounded positively Thatcherite. Can you imagine Cameron delivering a speech written by Steve Hilton which souonded like that? Cameron’s opening speech of the year promised a new high-speed rail network and the creation of 100,000 apprenticeships. Dave sounded more like Gordon Brown than Maggie."

Ouch!

The fact is that now Brown is a lame duck Prime Minister, and Labour's left wing has effectively been silenced, Cameron has the wriggle room to turn right - at least on the economy. He can keep his guarantee on the NHS (though not without powerful caveats about massive savings through restructuring and the complete abolition of trainwreck IT, PFI disasters, for instance). But he can now launch an all-out assault on Social Security (which last year cost the UK taxpayer £136Bn [it'll be much worse this year - ed]) and public sector employment, especially in local government and NHS (mis)management.

Both of these have spiralled out of control under Labour. In these areas, the areas that really do count when it comes to saving the British economy from collapse, he can now be bold - but he must also be imaginative and make sure the banks are not let off the hook, too. Treasury expenditure has trebled since the bank bailouts and useless Brownite 'stimulus' packages. That can't go on.

The point is, now that the Labour government is being run by a Darling/Mandelson axis, I think Cameron will be bolder - and good luck to him. Maybe it'll get he likes of Fraser Nelson off his back (although I wouldn't hold my breath on that one - Nelson appears to have gone bonkers).

UK Debt Downgrade "80% Certain"

Tomorrow's DT will make further horrible reading for Brown and Darling (I dearly hope). According to one of their economics journos, Ed Conway, the head of one of Britain's leading fund managers, Neil Woodford, Darling's and Brown's inability to face up to the unsustainable scale of their spending and consequently gigantic debt levels - at least in peacetime - is now virtually certain to lead to a credit rating downgrade and, far worse, a subsequent debt spiral. Woodford is quoted as saying:

I would argue that there is a high probability... a decent chance that we will be downgraded, and it is a near certainty if we do not, in the wake of the next election, properly deal with the deficit. There are some major challenges here. If we do not take the medicine, there will inevitably be a downgrade. If we do, we have a chance of escaping a downgrade.

After the PIMCO shock, where their experts determined that there was an 80% probability of a downgrade from AAA and acted accordingly by dumping UK gilts, it seems this gathering economic storm is going to make the current arctic weather and subsequent national chaos look like a soft, Barbados beach on a warm day.

And the only party with a plan for getting us out of it with a coherent fiscal policy, designed to allow monetary policy to remain loose by avoiding the downgrade and subsequent, devastating interest rate rises and inflation, thus enabling a strengthening in any recovery, is the Conservative party. Philip Hammond proved that yesterday.

No wonder the Tories want an election right away. They're not bluffing - it's vital that we have a change of government because it really is the 11th hour for Britain's finances and economy.

Action must be taken - now!

By the way, well done Gordon. Well done Darling. Britain really is nearly bankrupt, thanks to you. Marvellous.

Brown's Gilt Trip

Mark Bathgate warns that Brown faces a major headache next month. The cost of Britain's debt is creeping up, especially after PIMCO decided to dump UK gilts, making it more and more expensive to fund, as Bathgate calls it neatly, Brown's "fiscal debauchery". As Bathgate says:

With inflation continuing to "surprise" on the upside, how long can the Bank of England keep justifying printing money? Now we learn that the Bank of England had printed £193.5 billion to finance government spending by the end of last week. So we are only four weeks to the next MPC meeting – but there is only £6.5 billion of new money left for them to pump out before they hit their £200 billion limit. Then we enter the scary territory I outlined in an earlier post. And Brown is still left needing around £15 billion of Gilt sales a month to finance his fiscal debauchery.

The Gilt market was fine while Brown's appointee's to the MPC were willing to keep the printing presses rolling to the tune of £1 billion a day through the summer. But...as inflation has started to rise quickly, the pace of money-printing and Gilt purchases has had to slow.

This has become a race for Brown, between the general election and a visit from the IMF. How long can he keep hosing borrowed money away, with no cogent plan to bring spending under control, or, in fact, no apparent acceptance even of the need to do so? The truth is, he can't face up to reality, but reality is about to bite. However, his head is currently buried deep in the snow. In what appears to be yet another classic Brownian displacement activity, he's taken personal control of the nation's dwindling grit supplies. Well, Gordon, this country and your diabolical premiership are on life support. And it's about to be switched off.

Seems to me this is an argument for a March election, but I reckon Brown is running another kind of race in his fevered imagination. He thinks that if he hangs on long enough, then the recovery will have begun and he will be able to take credit for it.
It won't matter to him that we were first in and last out (by a mile).

What he doesn't seem to realise is that the rest of the world, especially the parts having to fund his economic lunacy and political dishonesty, couldn't care two hoots about his political destiny, or the financial stability of Britain, for that matter. Why should they? But they could well be about to pull the plug, and yet the Bank of England has no choice. With inflation rising, adding to the strain on an economy mired in debt and still, officially, in recession, it will not, as Mark Bathgate suggests, be willing to go beyond the £200Bn funny money level. Next month will therefore be crunch time for Brown. He's gambling with the British economy and people's livelihoods just to save his own political skin.

But even if he thinks he's got away with it, with the start of a limited recovery (after the longest, deepest recession in the world, remember), he will not be forgiven for his behaviour and for the disastrous state he has left Britain in. That's the misjudgment he, and many of his jellyfish Labourist co-conspirators, have consistently failed to comprehend.

Give us the election so that we can explain it to them.

Meanwhile, as Bathgate says:

The market has already started to push up the cost of borrowing for the UK. It's risen by 0.6 percent over recent weeks. Despite having official rates over half a percent lower, UK borrowing costs are now 0.7 percent higher than those of Germany. I suspect the Gilt market will be very vulnerable in coming weeks.

Hang on to your hats, folks, we're all on Brown's gilt trip and it's gonna be one hell of a bumpy ride.