02/08/06, Patrick Martin, Let's make a deal
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THE MIDEAST CONFLICT: THE SCENE
With fighting intensifying again in southern Lebanon, all eyes are on Security Council efforts to end the conflict. From Beirut, Patrick Martin rounds up the key issues.
Ceasefire
Everyone agrees there will be one; the only question involves the deal's timing.
Lebanon wants an unconditional ceasefire before anything else is negotiated.
Israel says it will only agree to a ceasefire after everything else is agreed and an international force is deployed.
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan has proposed something that might bridge this gap: a "cessation of hostilities" that would be agreed to before anything else is negotiated. Lebanon would be able to present it as a ceasefire by another name, while Israel could maintain that it was not a formal ceasefire.
Prisoner exchange
Hezbollah launched its July 12 raid on Israel with the expressed aim of taking prisoners to trade for the release of three Lebanese held in Israeli jail.
While Israel has refused to say so publicly, diplomats close to the negotiations say Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has agreed to an exchange as part of an overall package.
The Shebaa Farms
Captured by Israel during fighting with Syria in 1967, this small swath of territory to the west of Mount Hermon (the highest point on the occupied Golan Heights) has only recently been claimed by Lebanon.
UN officials insist the territory is part of Syria and that a purported document showing its transfer to Lebanon in the 1950s is a forgery. Hezbollah says it is owned by Lebanese, which Syria has not refuted.
Hezbollah has used the land as justification for continuing to fight Israel, and for that reason, Lebanon has let Hezbollah keep its arms.
Lebanon would like Israel to relinquish the territory to remove Hezbollah's case and ease the process of disarming the group. (Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt appealed earlier this year to Washington to persuade Israel to do just this, to no avail.) Israel does not want to set a precedent of returning any captured territory without a peace treaty with Damascus.
Mr. Siniora has proposed that Israel turn the territory over to a UN mandate until the status of its sovereignty is finalized.
Land mines
Lebanon wants Israel to turn over maps showing the location of all land mines it buried during its 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon.
Israel says it already done so, and UN officials agree. Said one: "If it would help, we'd be happy to stage a photo-op showing Israel handing us another copy."
Lebanese authority
Everyone agrees the Lebanese army should be deployed throughout Lebanon, including the embattled south, as an expression of sovereignty.
To Israel, that means Lebanon assumes responsibility for ensuring there are no attacks against Israel by anyone in Lebanon. To Lebanon, it means Israeli respect for its border and an end to the frequent overflights by Israeli military aircraft.
International force
It is generally agreed that to carry out its full sovereign duties, Lebanon's army requires the assistance of an international force to patrol the south and the Syrian border.
Lebanon has proposed that the existing UN force, UNIFIL, created in 1978 to monitor cross-border hostilities, be expanded to do so.
Israel dismisses UNIFIL's viability, pointing to the fact that Hezbollah has been able to construct a network of bunkers and arms caches while under UNIFIL's watch.
Instead, Israel proposes a multinational force, perhaps mounted by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, that would be capable of disarming Hezbollah or other attackers if necessary. But Lebanon rejects the idea, fearing that the introduction of foreign troops would risk tearing the country apart.
UN officials are promoting the idea that UNIFIL's mandate can be changed to a more muscular one, and that the countries participating in the force can be altered. Whether anyone will want to participate depends very much on the final issue.
Disarming Hezbollah
Israel and the United States insist that any UN resolution calling for a ceasefire must include provisions for disarming Hezbollah. They refer to last year's resolution 1559, which called for both Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon and the disarming of all forces other than the Lebanese army, and insist it be implemented -- preferably by decommissioning Hezbollah's weapons.
Lebanon chose not to rush to implement the second part of that resolution, wanting to avoid a possible confrontation and focusing instead on rebuilding the shattered country. It's not that Lebanon doesn't want to eliminate the militia, officials say, it's that it wants to do so as part of a national political consensus.
Lebanon prefers to use the 1989 Taif agreement as a touchstone. The agreement, orchestrated by a number of Arab countries, first authorized Syria's intervention in Lebanon to end the country's 15-year civil war.
It too called for the disarming of all militias. But Lebanon sees Taif as part of a larger project to reform the country's outmoded confessional political system. In it, Lebanon envisions Hezbollah incorporating its militia into the Lebanese army.
The outcome could very well be the same either way, a UN official said: one army answering to one governing authority, with Hezbollah as part of the government.
With fighting intensifying again in southern Lebanon, all eyes are on Security Council efforts to end the conflict. From Beirut, Patrick Martin rounds up the key issues.
Ceasefire
Everyone agrees there will be one; the only question involves the deal's timing.
Lebanon wants an unconditional ceasefire before anything else is negotiated.
Israel says it will only agree to a ceasefire after everything else is agreed and an international force is deployed.
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan has proposed something that might bridge this gap: a "cessation of hostilities" that would be agreed to before anything else is negotiated. Lebanon would be able to present it as a ceasefire by another name, while Israel could maintain that it was not a formal ceasefire.
Prisoner exchange
Hezbollah launched its July 12 raid on Israel with the expressed aim of taking prisoners to trade for the release of three Lebanese held in Israeli jail.
While Israel has refused to say so publicly, diplomats close to the negotiations say Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has agreed to an exchange as part of an overall package.
The Shebaa Farms
Captured by Israel during fighting with Syria in 1967, this small swath of territory to the west of Mount Hermon (the highest point on the occupied Golan Heights) has only recently been claimed by Lebanon.
UN officials insist the territory is part of Syria and that a purported document showing its transfer to Lebanon in the 1950s is a forgery. Hezbollah says it is owned by Lebanese, which Syria has not refuted.
Hezbollah has used the land as justification for continuing to fight Israel, and for that reason, Lebanon has let Hezbollah keep its arms.
Lebanon would like Israel to relinquish the territory to remove Hezbollah's case and ease the process of disarming the group. (Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt appealed earlier this year to Washington to persuade Israel to do just this, to no avail.) Israel does not want to set a precedent of returning any captured territory without a peace treaty with Damascus.
Mr. Siniora has proposed that Israel turn the territory over to a UN mandate until the status of its sovereignty is finalized.
Land mines
Lebanon wants Israel to turn over maps showing the location of all land mines it buried during its 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon.
Israel says it already done so, and UN officials agree. Said one: "If it would help, we'd be happy to stage a photo-op showing Israel handing us another copy."
Lebanese authority
Everyone agrees the Lebanese army should be deployed throughout Lebanon, including the embattled south, as an expression of sovereignty.
To Israel, that means Lebanon assumes responsibility for ensuring there are no attacks against Israel by anyone in Lebanon. To Lebanon, it means Israeli respect for its border and an end to the frequent overflights by Israeli military aircraft.
International force
It is generally agreed that to carry out its full sovereign duties, Lebanon's army requires the assistance of an international force to patrol the south and the Syrian border.
Lebanon has proposed that the existing UN force, UNIFIL, created in 1978 to monitor cross-border hostilities, be expanded to do so.
Israel dismisses UNIFIL's viability, pointing to the fact that Hezbollah has been able to construct a network of bunkers and arms caches while under UNIFIL's watch.
Instead, Israel proposes a multinational force, perhaps mounted by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, that would be capable of disarming Hezbollah or other attackers if necessary. But Lebanon rejects the idea, fearing that the introduction of foreign troops would risk tearing the country apart.
UN officials are promoting the idea that UNIFIL's mandate can be changed to a more muscular one, and that the countries participating in the force can be altered. Whether anyone will want to participate depends very much on the final issue.
Disarming Hezbollah
Israel and the United States insist that any UN resolution calling for a ceasefire must include provisions for disarming Hezbollah. They refer to last year's resolution 1559, which called for both Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon and the disarming of all forces other than the Lebanese army, and insist it be implemented -- preferably by decommissioning Hezbollah's weapons.
Lebanon chose not to rush to implement the second part of that resolution, wanting to avoid a possible confrontation and focusing instead on rebuilding the shattered country. It's not that Lebanon doesn't want to eliminate the militia, officials say, it's that it wants to do so as part of a national political consensus.
Lebanon prefers to use the 1989 Taif agreement as a touchstone. The agreement, orchestrated by a number of Arab countries, first authorized Syria's intervention in Lebanon to end the country's 15-year civil war.
It too called for the disarming of all militias. But Lebanon sees Taif as part of a larger project to reform the country's outmoded confessional political system. In it, Lebanon envisions Hezbollah incorporating its militia into the Lebanese army.
The outcome could very well be the same either way, a UN official said: one army answering to one governing authority, with Hezbollah as part of the government.
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