DE-Sen: Castle v. Biden

For a small state, that's going to be a big matchup. Mike Castle is considered a moderate and hasn't lost a race in Delaware since 1966. Beau Biden is the son of the Vice President, who also never lost a race in Delaware, and he's the Attorney General in his own right.

Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) will be running for Vice President Joe Biden’s old Senate seat in Delaware, according to two GOP sources connected to the congressman, instantly giving Republicans the opportunity to flip a traditionally-Democratic seat in their column [...]

But Attorney General Beau Biden, just back from military service in Iraq, is considering running for the seat and would be a formidable opponent.

A recently-released Rasmussen poll conducted this month showed Castle leading Biden by five points, 47 to 42 percent.

That's instantly a toss-up seat. Bad news for Democrats, although it's mitigated slightly by the fact that Castle's House seat probably flips now, as he was pretty much the only man in Delaware who could keep it.

Democrats had better do something with their 60-seat Senate majority in the next year, because they are highly unlikely to keep it or grow it.

...Jack Conway looks pretty good in Kentucky, but needless to say the trade of Ted Kaufman for a Southern Democrat is a net negative for a progressive agenda.

...Open Left sees a 3-5 seat pickup for Republicans right now, although it is early and they add some caveats.

...Interesting theory from a pollster suggesting that Castle is only ahead due to name recognition. Also, with a likely anti-incumbency mood out there, will Castle really be able to avoid charges that he's part of the problem in Washington?

Bunning Run Out Of The Senate

Jim Bunning had a very good chance of being defeated for re-election, and the GOP knew it. So they systematically set about to deny him the funds he would need to compete. And they were very successful. So now he's cashing out.

Blaming GOP leaders for freezing him out on fundraising, Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) is bailing on his Senate campaign and won't run for re-election next year.

The move comes as a great relief for Washington Republicans concerned about Bunning's prospects in the midterm elections, and Bunning blasted fellow Republicans, saying they had "done everything in their power" to force him out.

It does leave a formidable legacy for the former baseball pitcher, being run out of Washington by his own party.

Though Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway has a good profile statewide, I would guess that Bunning's departure makes this a more likely Republican seat in 2010. Democrats should focus on other pickup opportunities.

Duly Noted

Ron Paul's son, who is considering a Senate run in Kentucky, is named Rand.

Jim Bunning In Bigger Trouble Than The '64 Phillies

As a Phillies fan, Jim Bunning will be forever linked in my mind with the team that lost a 6 1/2-game lead with 10 games to play and blew the pennant 45 years ago. As a political junkie, he will be linked in my mind with his claim that his Italian-American opponent in 2004 "looked like one of Saddam Hussein's sons.", Fortunately, the people of Kentucky have noticed that Bunning is a loon, and they are not inclined to send him back to Washington as their representative in 2010.

Wow. Look at these Public Policy Polling numbers of the Kentucky Senate race. Senator Jim Bunning has just tanked in both approval and head-to-head match-ups. First, his "approval":

"Only 28% of Kentucky voters approve of Jim Bunning's job performance, our newest survey finds. 18% have no opinion and 54% say they disapprove of his work. That's the highest level of disapproval for any of the 18 Senators across the country PPP has gauged approval for since last summer. The previous worst before this Kentucky survey was 40% for Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas."

As for the head-to-head match-ups, generally an incumbent is considered endangered if he can't get above 50%. What's it called when an incumbent can't get above 40?

Jim Bunning 33
Ben Chandler 47

Jim Bunning 33
Jack Conway 42

Jim Bunning 34
Crit Luallen 42

Jim Bunning 36
Dan Mongiardo 43

Mongiardo, by the way, is the olive-skinned Lt. Governor of Kentucky who Bunning called an Ay-rab five years ago. And he's definitely running again. If Ben Chandler decides to run, I don't think he'd be beaten.

Very quietly, 2010 is looking as good for Democrats in the Senate as 2008. Obviously the political winds could shift, but at least three seats (KY, PA and NH) look very good for Democratic pick-ups, while Missouri, Florida and Ohio will be very contested Republican-held open seats. Roy Cooper can probably win over Richard Burr in North Carolina as well. And there aren't that many Democratic seats, save maybe Chris Dodd in Connecticut, that are threatened. We could see as high as 65 Democratic Senators by 2011.

KY-Sen: Must Be Some Poll Results

Jim Bunning commissioned a poll for his re-election campaign. He paid $20,000 for it. And he's not showing it to you or anyone else.

Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., has conducted a poll on his 2010 bid for election to a third term, but he isn't making the results public.

"Let's say I did the polling," the senator told reporters on a conference call this morning.

What does that mean?

"That means it's none of your g--d--- business," Bunning said, who then followed up with a laugh. "If you paid the 20 grand for the poll, you can get some information out of it."

This is going to be so much fun to watch.

Kos should commission a poll on this race ASAP.

Conservative Losing-Team Slap-Fights

There ultimately will be no "conservative crackup" - a party espousing authoritarian and business-friendly policies will always exist. But there are fissures - and pretty much due to personality rather than ideology. For example, Rush Limbaugh gets personally upset when politicians challenge his "I want Obama to fail" mantra. Tim Pawlenty is personally hurt by national Republicans urging on Norm Coleman to continue fighting the Minnesota election despite impossible odds, because his state isn't getting what it needs. And another example is Kentucky Senator Jim Bunning, who the party wants to ease into retirement because, well, he's crazy and would lose a re-election fight, but who is too stubborn to go quietly:

But Bunning, a famously irascible former pitcher enshrined in baseball's Hall of Fame, is digging in. He insists he will run despite lackluster fundraising and is rebuking those who suggest he shouldn't.

McConnell has not publicly asked Bunning to retire, but he has ducked questions about the race, saying he will wait until Bunning makes his intentions clear. Bunning, who has said over and over that he is running, said later that McConnell must have "had a lapse of memory."

He has had even harsher words for Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who is leading the GOP's re-election efforts for next year. Cornyn had similarly deflected comment on the race, prompting Bunning to say Cornyn "doesn't understand English."

Bunning did not appear to be mollified when Cornyn said he supports the Kentucky senator. "I don't believe anything John Cornyn says," Bunning said.

That comment came around the same time that word leaked that Republican Kentucky state Senate President David Williams met with the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which Cornyn heads. Bunning told reporters Tuesday that he would have grounds for a lawsuit against the committee if it backed a GOP challenger to him in the 2010 primary.

Bunning first threatened to sue the NRSC if they didn't support him. Then he apparently made an even more substantive threat:

WASHINGTON — Already in conflict with his party’s leaders, Sen. Jim Bunning has reportedly said privately that if he is hindered in raising money for his re-election campaign he is ready with a response that would be politically devastating for Senate Republicans: his resignation.

The Kentucky Republican suggested that possible scenario at a campaign fundraiser for him on Capitol Hill earlier this week, according to three sources who asked not to be identified because of the politically sensitive nature of Bunning’s remarks.

The implication, they said, was that Bunning would allow Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear, a Democrat, to appoint his replacement — a move that could give Democrats the 60 votes they need to block Republican filibusters in the Senate.

“I would get the last laugh. Don’t forget Kentucky has a Democrat governor,” one of the sources quoted Bunning as saying.

“The only logical extension of that comment is, ‘(Make me mad) … enough and I’ll resign, and then you’ve got 60 Democrats,’ ” said another source who was present at the event.

Bunning is already backing away from the statement. But you can see how a strong daddy conservative with a runaway ego would say such a thing. Just like in sports, when you're a losing team, all the petty jealousies and angry backbiting comes out. I'd say it's unlikely that Bunning bolts, but he'd probably be thrilled to screw Mitch McConnell and the GOP. It's all a game to them, anyway.

Sincerity

Jim Bunning caused a stir over the weekend by announcing that Ruth Bader Ginsburg would be dead in nine months because of her pancreatic cancer. Ginsburg returned to work today, and Bunning received a torrent of criticism. So he promptly gave the qualified apology capped by spelling the Supreme Court Justice's name wrong:

“I apologize if my comments offended Justice Ginsberg,” Bunning said. “That certainly was not my intent. It is great to see her back at the Supreme Court today and I hope she recovers quickly. My thoughts and prayers are with her and her family.”

Nice guy. No wonder his own party is dying to get him out of his own re-election race.

Senate Campaign News!

Yes, with around 650 days until the next election, there's no reason not to do a roundup of Senate campaign news!!!

• KY-Sen: Dan Mongiardo, the Lieutenant Governor who nearly knocked off Jim Bunning in 2004, will seek the seat again in 2010. Bunning, who compared Mongiardo to Saddam Hussein in 2004 because he has olive skin, is being begged to retire by the GOP leadership and can't raise any money. I think Mongiardo would beat him pretty badly, but we'll see if Bunning takes the hint.

• IL-Sen: Roland Burris, who by the way is responsible for Barack Obama's Presidency, should draw a primary challenge in 2010, and the opponent could be an Obama ally:

One of President Obama’s close friends and basketball buddies is considering a campaign against Sen. Roland Burris (D-Ill.) in the Democratic primary.

Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is holding conversations with leading Illinois Democrats in preparation for a possible candidacy, according to a Democratic operative familiar with his decision-making process.

“He’s been talking to a lot of Democrats in Illinois who believe that this seat is gone is if Burris is the nominee. If it’s Mark Kirk or a rich Republican, we’ve got to hold this seat. That’s enough to encourage him to take a very serious look,” said the operative.

At 32, Giannoulias has been on the fast track in Illinois politics since leaving his job as a bank vice president to run for state treasurer in 2006. Inspired by Obama’s Senate campaign, he ran against the Democratic candidate backed by the party establishment and, aided by Obama’s endorsement, prevailed.

Burris and really all of these Senate appointees should get a primary challenge. If they're worthy of representing the people of their state they ought to earn it.

• CO-Sen: Interesting profile on Michael Bennet, the youngest member of the Senate who's been sleeping at his mom's house while setting up shop in Washington. He's kind of a blank slate, and I hope he gets a primary challenge as well, but something tells me that this guy can weather the uncertainty. Universally the reaction to him is that he's smart, which is something you don't hear about many Senators and which may just be enough.

...Colorado's Attorney General John Suthers, the only statewide office holder in the Rocky Mountain State, just declined the option of running against Bennet in 2010. That'll make it easier both for Bennet to win or for a Democratic challenger to primary him.

Annals Of Republican FAIL

The past few days have seen Republican lawmakers, now endangered in the harsh political environment, just making with the crazy and seriously damaging their re-election chances.

And I'm not just talking about the unholy merger of Katherine Harris and Joe McCarthy, Michelle Bachmann, who's now trying to wiggle out of responsibility for her own words. By the way, her oppponent El Tinklenberg used that bounty of campaign cash to put up a pretty solid bio spot that highlights his support for light rail!



Fantastic stuff.

But there's plenty more out there that that. In NJ-05, Chris Smith is a Republican from New Jersey who has decided he's from Virginia:

Rep. Christopher Smith, a Republican who has represented central New Jersey since 1980, probably didn’t realize he was walking into a political minefield when his family requested a break on his daughter’s huge college bill.

Smith’s daughter, who until recently lived with him in the family’s Herndon, Va., home, obtained in-state tuition privileges at a prestigious Virginia university — saving the Smiths $20,000 per year off the $29,000 tuition charged to out-of-state students.

But what Smith saved in cash could end up costing him politically – Democrats says the claim to Virginia residency shows that Smith is out of touch with the New Jersey constituents he’s supposed to represent.

These residency switches always come back to hurt the candidate (see Rick Santorum in 2006). And Smith's opponent Josh Zeitz is a great progressive.

Then there's Bachmann II (Bachmann Turner Overdrive?), Robin Hayes, another Republican in a tight race who claimed that liberals hate America at a McCain event, and is now denying that he ever said it. That doesn't work in an age of YouTube.



We have another great opponent in NC-08, former textile worker Larry Kissell.

And then we get into some real problems for the GOP. Mitch McConnell is tied in his race with Democrat Bruce Lunsford, according to a Survey USA poll. McConnell is the Republican Minority Leader, and has run rings around Harry Reid with procedural motions and obstructionism in the Senate. The Republicans become MUCH weaker without McConnell. And you know he's nervous when he touts his ability to bring home earmarks for Kentucky. I don't think voters give a crap about seniority when they vote for a representative. I had written this off, but McConnell is in serious trouble. I'm not a Lunsford fan but this would really hurt the GOP.

And then, there's Bill Sali. This guy is a Congressman and not a junior high student?

"Congressman Bill Sali and his campaign staff disrupted a NewsChannel 7 reporter and a representative for his opponent during an interview Tuesday in Downtown Boise.

KTVB reporter Ysabel Bilbao was interviewing Walt Minnick's campaign director John Foster Wednesday afternoon. During the interview, someone loudly yelled and was laughing during the interview at the Grove plaza.

Bilbao and Foster initially ignored the intrusion, but quickly noticed the source of the heckling -- Sali and members of his staff. (...)

Foster said he saw Sali making faces at him and holding up "bunny ears.""

It's statesmanship like that which has seen Sali trailing in the polls to his opponent Walt Minnick. Yes, the Democrat is winning. In Idaho.

It really is falling to crap for Republicans...

Senate Tells House To Move Over

So the Senate, which is more resistant to popular opinion by virtue of its longer terms of office and rotating elections, will vote on the bailout tomorrow. And they'll probably pass it.

Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and GOP Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky unveiled the plan Tuesday. The Senate plan would also raise federal deposit insurance limits to $250,000 from $100,000, as called for by the two presidential nominees only hours earlier.

The move to add a tax legislation — including a set of popular business tax breaks — risked a backlash from House Democrats insisting they be paid for with tax increases elsewhere.

But by also adding legislation to prevent more than 20 million middle-class taxpayers from feeling the bite of the alternative minimum tax, the step could build momentum for the Wall Street bailout from House Republicans. The presidential candidates Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Barack Obama, D-Ill., intend to fly to Washington for the votes, as does Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, the Democratic vice presidential candidate.

The tax plan was stalled out in the House last week. Helping relieve the middle class from getting hit with the AMT is fine, and would include the renewable energy tax credits:

The tax plan passed the Senate last week, on a 93-2 vote. It included AMT relief, $8 billion in tax relief for those hit by natural disasters in the Midwest, Texas and Louisiana, and some $78 billion in renewable energy incentives and extensions of expiring tax breaks. In a compromise worked out with Republicans, the bill does not pay for the AMT and disaster provisions but does have revenue offsets for part of the energy and extension measures.

This has now become a ridiculous inter-chamber slap fight. And really, where else could this have gone? They're larding on bills that may be popular to get people to relent and pass this pig. If they concurrently shrunk the plan to only get us through January, that would be one thing. But that's not happening.

As for the "progressive alternative," it doesn't read to me as much of an alternative at all. The good part of it, raising the FDIC insurance limit, is in the Paulson plan now, and the rest of it seems to just be a new way to give away lots of money. The change away from mark to market accounting is a fait accompli thanks to the SEC. David Sirota seems to like it, but I fail to see how it would do anything to stop foreclosures or alleviate the housing crisis. It may, I repeat may, save money on the initial layout. Maybe.

It's clear to me why the Senate is doing this. On the Democratic side, Obama comes off looking like someone who made this happen once he engaged. What's more, this crisis is playing well for them politically, not just for Obama but throughout US Senate races, and forcing Saxby Chambliss or Mitch McConnell, who are suddenly in close re-election races, into tough votes is advisable. For the Republicans, they are really in a spot, having to run against Bush but also being held responsible for the Wall Street meltdown, so they want to show leadership or something. But ultimately, this is about the Senate sticking it to the House and getting out of town. That's what they really want to do.

I'm not knee-jerk opposed to a bill if it only gets us through to January, but a big, bloated bailout doesn't make sense to me. There are smarter ways to intervene, but it doesn't seem like Democrats or even the Progressive Caucus is interested in it.

This is going to be a real tough vote for Bush Dogs. Bail out their Wall Street friends, but allow tax cuts without offsets?

Filibuster Friends May Be Filibustering Their Way Out Of Washington

As despondent as I am over the Democrats' tactics in this Congressional session, it's clear that the Republicans have a stated goal to shut down the government. They're already nearing the record for filibusters in one Congress, and in only half the session. And they continue to believe this obstructionism won't hurt them at the polls. We're going to find out.

There are plenty of top-tier races where Democrats have a clear edge. But take a look at these poll numbers out of Alaska, where the whole delegation is ethically compromised, and there are excellent chances to have a Democrat come out of the Great White North for the first time since Mike Gravel in the 1970s.

If 2008 election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz, the Democrat, and Don Young, the Republican?

Young (R) 42
Berkowitz (D) 49

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich, the Democrat, and Ted Stevens, the Republican?

Stevens (R) 41
Begich (D) 47

While it would be of course great to knock out Series of Tubes Stevens and his Hulk tie, the race in Kentucky is actually more important. Mitch McConnell is schooled in the art of the Senate and has consistently outfoxed Harry Reid this year. His knowledge and expertise is a major reason they've been so successful at obstructing legislation. Beating him would not only be a payback for the defeat of former Minority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004, but it would be as meaningful as Jim Webb's victory over presumptive Presidential nominee Macaca Allen was in 2006.

Today, Andrew Horne, an Iraq war vet, took up the challenge.

Andrew Horne, who had to step down as a Senior Advisor to VoteVets.org to run this race, not only has a good shot to beat McConnell, he has a tremendous shot. That’s got us Iraq veterans pumped because not only will we have a voice in the Senate that comes from our own ranks, but we’re also going to take down the guy who is the single most responsible person in Congress for the war in Iraq, as well as the defeat of pro-troop, pro-veteran legislation.

Horne's campaign announcement is here, and he seems to absolutely understand the importance of McConnell in blocking a progressive agenda, and how both veterans and Kentuckians would be better served by his leadership.

"I'm running for U.S. Senate because it's time for a change and because Senator Mitch McConnell is more than part of the problem. He is THE problem. It is time for Kentuckians to take our government and country back. We should not be told to take a backseat to the wealthy and powerful. It's time to tackle the challenges facing our country instead of passing them off to our kids. It's time for leaders who'll take the right stand," Horne says in the video.

"Mitch McConnell, the Republican Leader, symbolizes everything wrong with Washington. He bows to big business, practices the worst kind of politics, and doesn't take a stand when faced with tough issues. Simply put: Mitch McConnell carries George Bush's water on Iraq; I carried a rifle in Iraq" he added.

An early poll showed Horne just 11 points off the lead and McConnell well under 50%, and nobody even knows about him yet. I'm going to try and scrutinize these Democratic challengers closely and weed out the Bush Dogs, but so far Horne seems like a good choice.

UPDATE: Horne's campaign website.