Beware the Liberal Democrats!

I hesitate to write anything about the current coalition negotiations going on in Westminster. The memories of the twists and turns of the negotiations in Wales in 2007 remain very real in my mind and the danger of assuming a direct link between Cardiff Bay and Westminster is clear.

However, there are undoubtedly parallels. I think it was Rhodri Morgan who said yesterday that Plaid's approach in 2007 was businesslike. With chief negotiators like Jocelyn Davies, Ieuan Wyn Jones and Adam Price one wouldn't really expect anything else.

While Plaid were businesslike the Lib Dems were all over the place. And this is most certainly not a comment on their negotiators who were people of exceptional honour and dignity but rather on the rest of the party. The Lib Dems more than most political parties are a broad church, with at best a rather incohate liberal ideological core and a whole range of socio-economic positions to back that up (from radical ex-communists to right wing economic libertarians). In opposition this diversity of views is not a particular problem, but the closer one gets to real power the more problematic this becomes. Add in a particularly dogmatic streak amongst some Liberal Democrat activists (anyone from RCT can think of at least one example!) and you have a recipe for chaos.

The next 24 hours in Westminster will be fascinating to watch. There are clearly those in the Lib Dems who are deeply unhappy at the prospect of joining the slash and burn Tory coalition; likewise there are others who would seriously reconsider their party membership if an ailing Labour Party is propped up.

I suspect things have already come too far, but there is still an outside possibility in my mind that the Lib Dems will walk away from both parties, in all likelihood leaving the Queen to invite Cameron to form a minority government and a new election being called in the Autumn. This would be an abdication of responsibility in my view - if you seek power and have the opportunity of gaining power then there has to be very very good reasons not to fulfill your resposibilities.

It is an unedifying spectacle, and given the increasingly diverse voting patterns in the UK we will undoubtedly have more hung parliaments. The task for all parties in future is to at the very least prepare the ground for those negotiations, so that red lines (or in this case yellow lines) are clearly communicated in advance and that government can resume in good order after an election.

Confidence Building Measures

The past week hasn’t been one of the best for the One Wales Government. The exceptionally ill-judged and ill-timed statements from Labour seemed to reflect a disdain for their coalition partners that up to now hasn’t been evident (especially to those of us watching Cardiff Bay from a distance).

The question remains however whether the statement was designed to try and humiliate Plaid, or rather was it a hamfisted attempt to maintain a veneer of Labour unity without any consideration or understanding of the furious reaction it would elicit from Plaid. I’m willing, for now, to be charitable and assume the latter. The challenge for the new First Minister is certainly greater than it was a week ago.

Successful coalitions, even amongst parties who are mortal enemies (just think of Northern Ireland’s chuckle brothers!) have to be based on trust and confidence. That doesn’t mean that you share everything; it certainly doesn’t mean you’re not out to fight elections very hard indeed against each other, but you have to be able to trust your partners.

A long time ago (or so it seems anyhow), the General Secretaries of the parties in Wales would discuss with each other any local difficulties that emerged with local campaigning. These were tricky issues and at times could and would have created embarrassment for each of the parties in turn. BUT, over time, trust and confidence was built up. We could and we did have honest, private discussions which never saw the light of the day. But we could only do so because there was a level of trust.

Labour have conspired over the past week to badly damage that fragile trust in the coalition – because remember it only takes one major breach of trust to undermine months of effective working together. The challenge for the First Minister is not only to rebuild trust within the coalition but to ensure an effective functioning Welsh Government for the next 18 months. To do this he must get down to work on rebuilding confidence as soon as possible and the next time Peter Hain comes up with a genius idea at least pause for thought before jumping in feet first.