Beware the Liberal Democrats!

I hesitate to write anything about the current coalition negotiations going on in Westminster. The memories of the twists and turns of the negotiations in Wales in 2007 remain very real in my mind and the danger of assuming a direct link between Cardiff Bay and Westminster is clear.

However, there are undoubtedly parallels. I think it was Rhodri Morgan who said yesterday that Plaid's approach in 2007 was businesslike. With chief negotiators like Jocelyn Davies, Ieuan Wyn Jones and Adam Price one wouldn't really expect anything else.

While Plaid were businesslike the Lib Dems were all over the place. And this is most certainly not a comment on their negotiators who were people of exceptional honour and dignity but rather on the rest of the party. The Lib Dems more than most political parties are a broad church, with at best a rather incohate liberal ideological core and a whole range of socio-economic positions to back that up (from radical ex-communists to right wing economic libertarians). In opposition this diversity of views is not a particular problem, but the closer one gets to real power the more problematic this becomes. Add in a particularly dogmatic streak amongst some Liberal Democrat activists (anyone from RCT can think of at least one example!) and you have a recipe for chaos.

The next 24 hours in Westminster will be fascinating to watch. There are clearly those in the Lib Dems who are deeply unhappy at the prospect of joining the slash and burn Tory coalition; likewise there are others who would seriously reconsider their party membership if an ailing Labour Party is propped up.

I suspect things have already come too far, but there is still an outside possibility in my mind that the Lib Dems will walk away from both parties, in all likelihood leaving the Queen to invite Cameron to form a minority government and a new election being called in the Autumn. This would be an abdication of responsibility in my view - if you seek power and have the opportunity of gaining power then there has to be very very good reasons not to fulfill your resposibilities.

It is an unedifying spectacle, and given the increasingly diverse voting patterns in the UK we will undoubtedly have more hung parliaments. The task for all parties in future is to at the very least prepare the ground for those negotiations, so that red lines (or in this case yellow lines) are clearly communicated in advance and that government can resume in good order after an election.

Cynon Valley 2010 Election Result

Having had a couple of hours sleep, I thought I'd better post the Cynon Valley result here.

Ann Clwyd Labour 15,681
Dafydd Trystan Davies Plaid Cymru 6,064
Lee Thacker Liberal Democrat 4,120
Juliette Ash Conservative 3,010
Frank Hughes UK Independence Party 1,001

I am really pleased to say that the result is an 8.6% swing from Labour to Plaid Cymru and Plaid Cymru's best result in the Cynon Valley since 1974! The Plaid vote increased by 6.8%, which I am reliably informed is one of our best results in Wales.

Though you'd always like to do better, I am delighted with the result. It provides a terrific base for the further growth of Plaid in the Cynon Valley and is an excellent foundation for the elections of 2011 and 2012.

I'll post more thoughts on the Wales and UK wide results in due course.

But I'd just like to say an enormous THANK YOU to everyone who supported me. We ran a terrific campaign and it wouldn't have been possible without the dozens of volunteers who gave up many many hours of their time to work for a better Cynon Valley. What was an enormous source of pride for me was the number of volunteers who have never been involved in politics before. I've met so many old and new friends and now look forward to a nice weekend off, and then back to work on Monday!

I'd also like to thank all of the candidates for the very good spirit in which the campaign was fought. I've known Ann for a while and knew that we would enjoy the debates of the campaign, but it was also a pleasure to meet two new friends in Lee and Juliette.

Diolch o waelod calon.

Dafydd